MONEY SUPPLY & MACRO - AAS Econ · 2019. 11. 23. · MONEY SUPPLY & MACRO - AAS Econ ... i 7,000
23
MONEY SUPPLY & MACRO Monthly Chart Book August, 2017
Transcript of MONEY SUPPLY & MACRO - AAS Econ · 2019. 11. 23. · MONEY SUPPLY & MACRO - AAS Econ ... i 7,000
MONEY SUPPLY & MACRO
Monthly Chart Book
August, 2017
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
1
AMS Money Supply
0
4
8
12
16
20
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
12mma
US AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
12mma
EUROZONE AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
0
4
8
12
16
20
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
12mma
GERMAN AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
12mma
UK AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
12mma
JAPAN AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
12mma
AUSTRALIA AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
2
0
10
20
30
40
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
12mma
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
CHINA AMS
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
12mma
HONG KONG M1
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
12mma
BRAZIL AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
12mma
INDIA MONEY SUPPLY AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
12mma
RUSSIA AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
12mma
ISRAEL AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
3
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
12mma
SWITZERLAND AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
12mma
SWEDEN AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
12mma
SOUTH KOREA AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
12mma
MEXICO AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
12mma
CANADA AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ja
n 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
12mma
ARGENTINA AMS
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
4
Economic Activity
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
US RETAIL SALES
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
EUROZONE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-4
0
4
8
12
16
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
GERMAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR Q
(%)
AASE
Forecast
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
JAPAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
UK INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
SWITZERLAND REAL GDP
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
AUSTRALIA REAL GDP
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
HK REAL GDP
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-5
0
5
10
15
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
INDIA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%) AASE
Forecast
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
BRAZIL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
6
40
45
50
55
60
65
70Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
SWEDEN PMI MANUFACTURING
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
SOUTH KOREA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
RUSSIA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%) AASE
Forecast
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
ISRAEL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
7
Inflation
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
US CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
US CPI less FOOD & ENERGY
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
EUROZONE CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
GERMANY CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
JAPAN CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%) AASE
Forecast
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
UK CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
8
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
SWITZERLAND CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
AUSTRALIA CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
CHINA CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
HK CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
BRAZIL CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
INDIA CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
9
-1
0
1
2
3
4Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
SWEDEN CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
SOUTH KOREA CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
RUSSIA CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
ISRAEL CPI
MONTHLY
YEAR-O
N-Y
EAR (
%)
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
10
Equity Markets
2,800
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,200
800
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
US S&P500
MONTHLY
IND
EX AASE
Forecast
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
US NASDAQ
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
4,000
3,600
3,200
2,800
2,400
2,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
EUROZONE STOXX50E INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASEForecast
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
GERMANY DAX INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX AASE
Forecast
24,000
20,000
16,000
12,000
8,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
JAPAN NIKKEI 225 INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX AASE
Forecast
8,000
7,600
7,200
6,800
6,400
6,000
5,600
5,200
4,800
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
UK FTSE 100 INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
11
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
SWISS SMI INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
6,400
6,000
5,600
5,200
4,800
4,400
4,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
AUSTRALIA ASX200 INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
CHINA SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
HK HANG SENG INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
72,000
68,000
64,000
60,000
56,000
52,000
48,000
44,000
40,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
BRAZIL BOVESPA INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
INDIA BSE-30 INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
12
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
SOUTH KOREA KOSPI INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
600
500
400
300
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
MONTHLY
IND
EX
SWEDEN OMXS ALL SHARE INDEX
AASE
Forecast
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
ISRAEL TA25 INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
13
Fixed Income – Government Bonds
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
MONTHLY
US 10-YR TREASURY BOND
MONTHLY
%
AASE
Forecast
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
MONTHLY
US 10-YR TREASURY INFLATION INDEXED
MONTHLY
%
AASE
Forecast
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
MONTHLY
EUROZONE 10-YR TREASURY BOND
MONTHLY
%
AASE
Forecast
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
MONTHLY
UK 10-YR GILT
MONTHLY
%
AASE
Forecast
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
MONTHLY
JAPAN JGB 10-YR BOND
MONTHLY
%
AASE
Forecast
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
MONTHLY
SWISS 10-YR TREASURY BOND
MONTHLY
%
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
14
1
2
3
4
5
6Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8MONTHLY
AUSTRALIA 10-YR TREASURY BOND
MONTHLY
%
AASE
Forecast
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
SWEDEN 10-YR GOVERNMENT BOND
MONTHLY
%
AASE
Forecast
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
MONTHLY
ISRAEL 10-YR GOVERMENT BOND
MONTHLY
%
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
15
FX
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
EURO/US$
US$ P
ER E
URO
MONTHLY
AASE
Forecast
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
US$/YEN
YEN P
ER U
S$
MONTHLY
AASE
Forecast
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
POUND/US$
US$ P
ER P
OUND
MONTHLY
AASE
Forecast
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
US$/CHF
SW
ISS F
RANC P
ER U
S$
MONTHLY
AASE
Forecast
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
A$/US$US$ P
ER A
$
MONTHLY
AASE
Forecast
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
AASE
Forecast
MONTHLY
USD/SEK
SW
ED
ISH
KR
ON
A P
ER
US
D
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
16
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
MONTHLY
USD/KRW
S.K
OR
EA
N W
ON
PE
R U
SD
AASE
Forecast
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
ISRAEL US$/SHEKEL
SH
EKEL
PER U
S$
MONTHLY
AASE
Forecast
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
17
Commodities
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
CRB COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
MONTHLY
IND
EX
AASE
Forecast
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
PRICE OF OIL (WTI)
MONTHLY
US$ P
ER B
ARREL
AASE
Forecast
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
COPPER PRICE
MONTHLY
US C
ENTS P
ER P
OUND
AASE
Forecast
0
40
80
120
160
200
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
IRON ORE
MONTHLY
US$ P
ER T
ONNE
AASE
Forecast
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
GOLD PRICE
MONTHLY
US$ P
ER O
UNCE
AASE
Forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
4
Ja
n 1
5
Ja
n 1
6
Ja
n 1
7
Ja
n 1
8
SILVER PRICE
MONTHLY
US$ P
ER O
UNCE
AASE
Forecast
Economic activity outlook
Q1(A) Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f
Forecast are expressed as a percentage change against the same quarter in the previous year
USA Real GDP 2.00% 2.08% 2.15% 1.90% 1.40% 1.07% 1.08% 0.66% 0.41% 0.20% 0.07% 0.07%
Industrial Production 1.26% 1.97% 2.24% 1.62% 1.22% -0.47% -0.63% -0.90% -1.33% -1.45% -1.55% -1.51%
CPI 2.38% 1.63% 1.32% 1.59% 1.79% 1.86% 2.07% 1.55% 1.09% 1.05% 0.88% 1.03%
Eurozone Real GDP 1.86% 2.08% 1.53% 1.25% 0.90% 0.12% 0.42% -0.21% -0.17% -0.19% -0.20% -0.27%
Industrial Production 2.31% 1.84% 1.48% 0.74% -0.02% -2.07% -1.68% -2.80% -2.94% -3.04% -3.11% -3.20%
CPI 1.54% 1.26% 1.29% 1.45% 1.53% 1.55% 1.55% 1.23% 1.04% 1.00% 0.90% 0.83%
Japan Real GDP 1.56% 3.50% 2.05% 0.57% -0.06% -0.01% -0.13% -0.02% -0.05% -0.23% -0.37% -0.60%
Industrial Production 3.53% 4.85% -2.33% -4.25% -7.07% -7.23% -7.84% -7.64% -8.12% -8.49% -8.98% -9.58%
CPI 0.20% 0.30% 0.38% 0.77% 0.56% 1.20% 0.85% 0.40% 0.45% 0.55% 0.63% 0.35%
UK Industrial Production 1.36% 0.95% 0.44% 0.06% -0.35% -1.40% -1.18% -1.75% -1.82% -1.94% -1.99% -2.05%
CPI 2.32% 2.64% 2.70% 2.61% 2.68% 2.64% 2.62% 2.47% 2.38% 2.38% 2.34% 2.31%
Switzerland Real GDP 1.09% -0.02% -1.27% -2.95% -2.55% -2.58% -1.67% -0.47% -0.25% -0.27% -0.27% -0.27%
CPI 0.57% 0.20% -0.16% -0.54% -0.59% -0.66% -0.42% -0.04% 0.02% 0.04% 0.07% 0.07%
Australia Real GDP 1.72% 2.18% 2.39% 2.36% 2.35% 2.37% 2.39% 2.36% 2.39% 2.36% 2.35% 2.36%
CPI 2.13% 1.93% 1.50% 1.73% 1.76% 1.89% 1.92% 2.02% 1.81% 1.70% 1.64% 1.78%
China Real GDP 6.90% 6.90% 6.45% 6.30% 6.19% 6.04% 6.00% 5.87% 5.82% 5.77% 5.75% 5.74%
Industrial Production 7.60% 7.65% 6.37% 6.21% 5.99% 5.75% 5.64% 5.47% 5.35% 5.28% 5.22% 5.21%
CPI 0.90% 1.50% 1.39% 0.77% 0.62% 0.60% 0.54% 0.43% 0.44% 0.31% 0.32% 0.28%
2017 2018 2019
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
19
Financial markets outlook
As at 2017 2018 2019
31-Jul-17 Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f
USA S&P 500 2,470 2,609 2,575 2,548 2,485 2,519 2,505 2,441 2,383 2,368 2,352
US 30-yr Treasury bond yield 2.90% 2.90% 2.78% 2.82% 2.71% 2.61% 2.32% 2.19% 2.20% 2.09% 1.99%
US 10-yr Treasury bond yield 2.29% 2.28% 2.13% 2.26% 2.12% 1.90% 1.55% 1.45% 1.48% 1.27% 1.10%
US 7-yr Treasury bond yield 2.11% 2.12% 1.97% 2.10% 1.96% 1.74% 1.40% 1.30% 1.33% 1.11% 0.92%
US 5-yr Treasury bond yield 1.83% 1.87% 1.73% 1.85% 1.73% 1.52% 1.22% 1.10% 1.14% 0.91% 0.73%
US 2-yr Treasury bond yield 1.35% 1.41% 1.30% 1.37% 1.29% 1.10% 0.88% 0.74% 0.74% 0.51% 0.33%
US 3-mth Treasury bill yield 1.08% 1.12% 1.05% 1.04% 0.98% 0.92% 0.72% 0.56% 0.53% 0.36% 0.23%
Federal Funds Rate 1.15% 1.19% 1.14% 1.17% 1.21% 1.12% 1.09% 0.97% 1.02% 0.83% 0.71%
Eurozone Stoxx50 3,449 3,564 3,438 3,377 3,163 3,177 3,050 2,990 2,798 2,774 2,626
German 10-yr Bund yield 0.53% 0.36% 0.34% 0.27% 0.31% 0.00% -0.13% -0.35% -0.23% -0.56% -0.58%
ECB Policy Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Japan Nikkei 19,925 20,496 20,148 19,805 18,897 18,851 18,149 17,641 16,624 16,317 15,609
Japan 10-yr JGB 0.07% 0.02% -0.04% -0.08% -0.10% -0.14% -0.16% -0.19% -0.19% -0.21% -0.21%
United Kingdom FTSE100 7,372 7,735 7,735 7,768 7,658 7,761 7,693 7,721 7,579 7,626 7,533
UK 10-yr Gilts 1.23% 1.06% 1.18% 0.96% 1.13% 0.82% 0.77% 0.42% 0.62% 0.25% 0.30%
Switzerland SMI Index 9,055 9,355 9,191 9,128 8,855 8,963 8,790 8,632 8,320 8,272 8,073
Swiss 10-yr gov't bond yield 0.04% -0.04% -0.08% -0.12% -0.20% -0.49% -0.67% -0.79% -0.68% -0.87% -0.90%
Australia ASX200 5,721 5,703 5,860 5,865 5,980 5,897 5,855 5,803 6,050 5,752 5,504
Aus. 10-yr gov't bond yield 2.69% 2.48% 2.68% 2.44% 2.54% 2.25% 2.31% 1.86% 2.04% 1.72% 1.91%
FX EURO/USD 1.18 1.12 1.11 1.09 1.07 1.02 0.94 0.94 0.96 0.92 0.85
USD/JPY 110.25 112.87 115.75 116.37 115.63 112.12 109.49 105.81 103.66 102.24 101.89
GBP/USD 1.32 1.28 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.26 1.20 1.16 1.20 1.11 1.05
USD/CHF 0.97 0.98 0.92 0.95 0.93 0.99 1.04 1.11 1.11 1.16 1.19
AUD/USD 0.80 0.78 0.72 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.61 0.60 0.62 0.58 0.52
Commodities CRB 182.6 170.9 171.1 170.5 167.5 152.2 136.2 129.8 136.9 118.4 104.5
Copper 288.8 253.5 256.0 277.1 273.2 229.2 211.5 230.3 219.7 168.8 150.5
Oil 50.2 42.6 43.1 41.2 42.8 38.0 36.5 33.6 36.5 32.7 31.5
Gold 1,269 1,247 1,056 1,113 1,094 1,098 908 947 941 950 793
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
20
Econometric Forecasting - MENGER Model
Driven by Adjusted Money Supply and other non-core variable with over 300 equations.
Covers major economies including: - USA
- Eurozone
- Japan
- UK
- China
- Australia
- Hong Kong
- Switzerland
- Brazil - India
- Russia
- Israel - Sweden
- South Korea - South Africa
Coverage includes bonds, stocks, currencies, commodities, GDP, Industrial Production, CPI, etc..
MENGER – Monetary Econometrics for National & Global Economic Research
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
21
Contact us
For further information contact AAS Economics at:
AAS ECONOMICS LTD 7 AUGUST 2017
22
IMPORTANT NOTICE
This document is an economic research document. Neither this document, nor its author or publisher, provides opinion, investment advice or financial product advice. This information is not intended to influence any investment decision. Neither this document, nor its author or publisher, seek to procure or solicit investment in, or influence any decision in relation to, any asset, asset class, instrument or security. No investment action should be taken based on any information contained in this publication. Readers should obtain information regarding investment and financial products from a person licensed to provide advice in relation to investments and financial products. This document is not intended to be published in any jurisdiction where such publication would contravene any law or regulation. By continuing to read this document you acknowledge and agree to the above and that no action of any kind shall lie against any author or publisher of this document for any reason whatsoever.
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