Monetary Policy Update December 2011
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Transcript of Monetary Policy Update December 2011
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Monetary PolicyUpdate
December 2011
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Swedish economy is slowing down
and inflationary pressures are low
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Still considerable unease on the financial markets
Government bonds with approximately 10 years to maturity, percentage points
Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Spain
Italy
France
Germany
Sweden
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High indebtedness – still a long way to go
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Greece
Ireland
Italy
Public debt as a percentage of GDP Source: IMF WEO September 2011
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Weak development in the euro area
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USA
Euro area
GDP, quarterly percentage change as annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
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Sweden burdened by weak development in the euro area
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USAEuro areaSweden
GDP, quarterly percentage change as annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Clear fall-off in Swedish export orders
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Export orders, net total Source: National Institute of Economic Research
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Cautious households and companies
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Households
Business sector
Confidence indicators for households and entire business sector, net figures, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
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Weaker labour market
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October
December
Unemployment, percentage of labour force, seasonally-adjusted dataSources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Low inflationary pressures
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CPIF
CPI
Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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A low repo rate stabilises inflation around the target
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October
December
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
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A forecast not a promise
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Unease about public finances subsides
quicker than expected
Problems in the euro area increase
Repo rate, per cent, quarterly mean values Source: The Riksbank
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Swedish economy is slowing down
and inflationary pressures are low
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Average interest rate for new contracts for companies and households
Per cent Sources: Ecowin and the Riksbank
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Weighted average interest rate forhouseholds and companiesRepo rate
Difference between weighted averageinterest rate and the repo rate