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Modi Doctrine: Elixir of Indian foreign policy

Sreeram Chaulia is a Professor and Dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs inSonipat, India.

Published time: April 29, 2014 21:39

As India’s voters appear poised to ring in a change of governmentin the ongoing general elections, one moot question is assumingsignificance: what will be the future foreign policy direction of the country under the new dispensation inNew Delhi?

Strategic elites in India and international observers are reading the tea leaves to decipher the likely paththat one of the most important emerging powers will take in the world for the next five years.

Expectation that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under Mr. Narendra Modi has the best chance oftaking power after results are declared on May 16, is piquing interest about the likely changes in foreign

Indian women queueing to cast their votes in Alwar, Rajasthan on April 24, 2014 . (AFP Photo / Files /Prakash Singh)

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policy that India might adopt. In light of this imminent turnover of power in New Delhi, it is pertinent toelaborate the principal challenges facing contemporary Indian foreign policy.

The foremost problem is the question of identity and self-definition. How does India view itself in worldaffairs? Is it a wannabe great power or, as Amitabh Mattoo of the University of Melbourne puts it, a“reluctant superpower” hesitant to assert itself on the global stage? Is India a leader of the Global Southor has it abandoned the causes that win followers among fellow developing countries? Is it satisfied beinga hegemon of South Asia or does it have broader ambitions of exerting influence in the rest of Asia andbeyond?

The current government and its predecessors did not dwell on ‘who are we?’ kind of lines. This neglectleft a void in defining India’s core national interests and imbuing them with a deeper purpose. Thanks toconfusion about India’s international identity, long-term policy planning and scenarios about the state ofthe world to formulate grand strategy for the year 2020 and beyond have been missing altogether in thelargely ad hoc universe of Indian foreign policy. If Mr. Modi becomes Prime Minister, he would be wise toinvest his brains trust with these crucial tasks.

The second problem dogging Indian foreign policy is the question of strategy. Is India engaged incounterbalancing China or the United States, the respective number two and number one powers in theworld? Should India bandwagon with the US in order to ward off the immediate strategic threat posed bythe Chinese neighbor, or is India also intent on remaking the wider global order by checking Americanpower through forums like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)?

Indian pole

Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi (2-R) prime ministerial candidate for India's main opposition BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP), waves to his supporters as he arrives to file his nomination papers for the generalelections in the northern Indian city of Varanasi April 24, 2014. (Reuters / Adnan Abidi)

Recent unofficial doctrines such as the ‘Nonalignment 2.0’ strategy advocate equidistance from bothChina and the US. But does India also have the wherewithal to build itself up as an independent thirdpower center in world politics, with its own group of adherent nations and its own brand of, say a ‘MumbaiConsensus’, that is distinct from the Western Washington consensus or the so-called ‘BeijingConsensus’?

While placing faith in speeding up economic growth as the ultimate guarantor of a more powerful India,the next government in New Delhi should simultaneously develop a vision document aiming atmultipolarity, in which India is a pole in its own right rather than a mere pendulum swinging in an à lacarte basis on issue to issue between China and the US.

Should Mr. Modi become the Prime Minister, he must demand accountability from the US for itsmassive cybersurveillance over private and governmental communications in India. The previousgovernment under Dr. Manmohan Singh was too meek on a grave threat posed to Indian nationalsecurity by the US National Security Agency’s intrusive snooping. It rightly condemned American abuseof a female Indian diplomat, but left the bigger issue of mistrust generated by the NSA’s hackingunaddressed. Washington took India for granted due to the non-assertive approach of Dr. ManmohanSingh, who had a strange affection for America beyond what was warranted from the head ofgovernment of an aspiring great power.

Setting the limits and red lines beyond which India will not tolerate great power meddling, and devisingways to concretely counter threats from more powerful states, will be the litmus tests for the gutsinessand toughness which the

BJP and Mr. Modi tout as cornerstones of their approach to national security and foreign policy.

A supporter of Kashmir's ruling National Conference (NC) party, wearing a vest with images of ploughs,

‘Big picture’The third problem in the conduct of Indian foreign policy is the question of capacity and political will. Thenext central government has to reverse the pathetic trend of understaffing and under-equipping India’scareer foreign service corps. Political will from the top, i.e. the Prime Minister’s office, to invest in a moreexpansive and global foreign policy will be required to overcome parochial navel gazing andcomplacency.

Although India cannot match the fat checkbook diplomacy of China around the world, there are morecreative means for the former to be involved in solving global security and economic crises.Overcautious and reactive thinking, which are hallmarks of India’s foreign policy in recent decades, mustbe replaced with a more proactive and engaged ‘big picture’ diplomacy that aims to reorder globalinstitutions and democratize them.

In distant parts of the world, India has thus far followed only economic interests without displaying anystake in resolving regional conflicts and security dilemmas. New Delhi needs to step up to the platewhere India’s MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) is presently MIA (Missing in Action).

Mr. Modi will also perform a profound national service by paying greater attention to the military inshaping India’s national security doctrines and postures. The abysmal allocation of an average of lessthan 2 percent of GDP to defense in recent times is a retrograde policy which India should be jettisoningunder the new government if it has to send a signal of its will to raise its material capabilities. Militarydiplomacy should also become integral to foreign policy making, something that all great powers pastand present have done without exception.

The other constituency which Mr. Modi should rope into foreign policymaking is India Incorporated.Previous governments have failed to harness the full potential of the Indian private sector as a forcemultiplier that brings rich foreign policy dividends. Mr. Modi’s image as a corporate-friendly politician is anasset that can give jet propulsion to India’s commercial diplomacy and stoke the “interlockingrelationships” that the BJP has vowed to nurture in its election manifesto.

shouts slogans during an election campaign rally being addressed by Farooq Abdullah, the presidentand a candidate of NC, in Kangan, east of Srinagar, April 28, 2014. (Reuters / Danish Ismail)

Beneficiary positionTwo big constraints have stunted India’s foreign policy dreams, viz. its dependence on imports forenergy security and military hardware. Overcoming these deficits through time-bound energy anddefense indigenization blueprints will yield phenomenal benefits for India’s much-desired ‘strategicautonomy.’ Mr. Modi’s reputation for result-oriented governance in the domestic sphere must alsotranslate into a hard-charging foreign policy if he takes charge after May 16.

The next five years will be seminal for the global power transition that is underway between West andEast and between Global North and Global South. India is poised to be a beneficiary because thetailwinds of this transition are with Asian powers. But it takes extraordinary leadership in foreign policyand a master plan for India to ride the crest and take its due place as a great power. The vehicle of thestate has an accelerator which needs a firm foot to be pushed and a strategically astute driver behind thesteering wheel. Mr. Modi can enter the league of foreign policy statesmen only if he can satisfy thesecriteria.

The last time an Indian Prime Minister was associated with a systematic set of ideas, principles andwell-honed means to guide foreign policy was in the 1970s and early 1980s, when the ‘Indira Doctrine’ ofMrs. Indira Gandhi was enunciated. In 1997-’98, there was an abortive ‘Gujral Doctrine’ named after theshort-lived prime ministership of Mr. Inder Kumar Gujral, but it hardly had any lasting impact. In theabsence of doctrines, Indian foreign policy is a saga of improvisation and unpredictability that does notbehoove a major power.

Workers carry electronic voting machines (EVM) at an election material distribution centre ahead of theseventh phase of the general election at Howrah district in the eastern Indian state of West Bengal April29, 2014. (Reuters / Rupak De Chowdhuri)

Mr. Modi is on the cusp of what pollsters predict as a certain victory in the general elections happeningright now in phases across India. The BJP’s projection of him as a strongman, who is the answer to theanxieties and frustrations of India’s people, has drawn a comparison by veteran Indian journalist Mr.Dileep Padgaonkar in The Times of India to the images of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, PrimeMinister Shinzo Abe of Japan and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. Interestingly, allthese three international figures have patented a hard-nosed foreign policy style and substance that hasforced the world to sit up and pay serious attention to their respective claims and interests.

If Indian voters entrust the keys of the nation to Mr. Modi, a ‘Modi Doctrine’ in foreign policy shouldensure that the next five years do not go down as a lost phase when the country could not grasp itshistoric international opportunity.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do notnecessarily represent those of RT.

Comments (12)BRICSIAN 30.04.2014 12:45

arrow 30.04.2014 11:52

You have hit the nail. Otherwise how can a country, that was Obama's "strategic partner of the21st century" only a year ago suddenly become a cesspit, where 700 million people don't havetoilets( i couldn't find the source of this data), where society is caste ridden and racist ( perhapsthe source is colonial historians and sociologists) ?

The negative reaction and anger (in the followers of Western hegemonistic ideology) ...

BRICSIAN 30.04.2014 12:34

Sanjay Saraf 30.04.2014 11:25

You mean the western world have a commitment to human rights and democracy?

...... but it is safe to say that we are also the only country outside the western world tohave a commitment to human rights and democracy.

arrow 30.04.2014 11:52

The negative reaction and anger (in the followers of Western hegemonistic ideology) ...by itselfis the evidence that they are frustrated by rise of a strong ,nationalistic party who can not bebought or intimidated and is capable of an independent foreign policy. The enemies want a

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