Modern Society is based on “ cheap ” energy and materials.

David Cahen Weizmann Institute of Science, MALTA V, PARIS 12-2011

Modern Society is based on “cheap” energy and

materials.

Weizmann Institute’s Alternative Sustainable Energy Research Initiative

http://www.weizmann.ac.il/AERI /

Presentations are at http://www.weizmann.ac.il/AERI/presentations.html

ENERGY vs. MATERIALS SUSTAINABILITY

David Cahen and Igor Lubomirsky*

Thanks to Al Hurd, LANL!

*I. Lubomirsky & D. Cahen,

MRS Bulletin, April 2012

David Cahen Weizmann Institute of Science, MALTA V, PARIS 12-2011from USGS


China formally announced 40% export quota reduction of

rare earth elements.(In 2009, China produced 97% of all rare earth

oxides.)

July 8, 2010

Baiyun Ebo Mine

Inner Mongolia

Al Hurd, LANL


How did this happen?• Through 1980, the US dominated rare earth production

• China gained 97% of the market by– Inventing mining techniques for low grade ores (ion-absorbed clays)

– Cost advantage

Baiyun Ebo Mine

Inner Mongolia

Al Hurd, LANL


Energy Critical Elements:

• Necessary for current and emerging energy technologies including research, and whose demand could exceed supply;• Have not been widely extracted, traded, or utilized in the past;• Are not the focus of well-established or relatively stable markets.

Examples * In solar cells, energy-efficient displays

* Te solar cells and detectors* Pt catalysts* Re superalloysAl Hurd, LANL


1940: Chicago Energy Critical Elements would

include…• U (natural)

• 2H (D2O)

• C (highly pure graphite)

Al Hurd, LANL


The APS-MRS set of Energy Critical

Elements

Al Hurd, LANL

Energy Critical Elements

2011 APS-MRS


2011: The World;Energy Critical Elements

• Rare Earths magnets, superconductors, lighting, alloys

• In solar cells, energy-efficient displays

• Te* solar cells and IR detectors• Ge solar cells and efficient electronics• Se solar cells• He* cryogenics• Li light-weight batteries• Pd catalysts• Pt group** catalysts• Re*, Co, Ag superalloys

*rarest **most costly /gramAl Hurd, LANL


Nd2Fe14B magnets Made ONLY in China (80%), Japan (17%), and Germany

(3%).

• A 3MW windmill requires 700 kg of Nd

• A hybrid car requires 3 kg of Nd.

• Nd2Fe14B lose 50% coercivity @100 C

• New Nd-Dy-Y—Fe-B magnet works to 200 C and uses less Nd.

Karl Gschneidner, Ames Lab, USA

Al Hurd, LANL


EU Raw Materials Initiative named

14 “critical” mineral groups --June 2010 (endorsed by CanadaAntimony, Beryllium, Cobalt, Fluorspar,

Gallium, Germanium, Graphite, Indium, Magnesium, Niobium, Platinum Group Metals, Rare earths, Tantalum,Tungsten

Al Hurd, LANL


Rarity Unstable supply Unstable price

Element

Resource Rarity*

PGM23,000,000

In3,800,000

Se1,200,000

Cd250,000

Bi240,000

Sb180,000

Ta66,000

W33,000

Sn29,000

Ge17,000

Rare metals

in Korea

56 ElementsEleme

nt$/ton (2002)

$/ton(2007)

Price variation

(%)Se8267 72222 774 Mo8840 70260 695

In87140 68080

0 681

Ni6772 37181 449 Bi6658 31437 372 W5400 24826 360 V9662 43295 348 Co15719 64440 310 Cr717 2761 285 Ti5980 22530 277

Element

1st Product country

Share

REEChina97.1NbBrazil89.8WChina86.5SbChina81.6

TaAustrali

a62

BTurkey58.7

PGMS.

Africa58.6

SiChina57.7InChina54.8BiChina52.5

South Korean analysis --Min Ha Lee, KITECH (2010)South Korean analysis --Min Ha Lee, KITECH (2010)

*Exhaustion rate of steel =1 *Exhaustion rate of steel =1

Domestic use

Flat Panels

Green Tech

Al Hurd, LANL

David Cahen Weizmann Institute of Science, MALTA V, PARIS 12-2011Al Hurd, LANL


C ~ A-η

where η ~ 0.6

C= cost per kg

A= weight abundance

Al Hurd, LANL

David Cahen Weizmann Institute of Science, MALTA V, PARIS 12-2011Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others

ECEs

Al Hurd, LANL

David Cahen Weizmann Institute of Science, MALTA V, PARIS 12-2011Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others

ECEs that are byproducts

from Cu-Mo

from Cu

from natural gas

from Cu

from Zn

from Zn

from Al

from several metals

Al Hurd, LANL


Realization 1:Technology uses energy to transform an object. The cheaper the energy is, the wider is the class of technologies that are considered economic

Realization 2:Ages are defined by materials (stone, bronze, iron ..) AND by energy type: human, animal, water, peat, coal, oil etc.


Economic reality

The price of a natural resource is defined by the most expensive

production method in usePrices in USD/barrel

Saudi Arabia, Iraq : <6

Algeria, Iran, Libya, Oman: <15 USD/barrel

North Sea: >40 USD/barrel(prices of July 28, 2009)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/28/oil-cost-factbox-idUSLS12407420090728


http://www.metalprices.com/pubcharts/Public/Aluminum_Price_Charts.asp

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/market-data/oil

David Cahen Weizmann Institute of Science, MALTA V, PARIS 12-2011from USGS


In 2008 energy consumption reached 15 TW; it will reach

~30 TW by 2030

fertilizer

Concrete


Most of the energy is consumed to produce materials

fertilizer

Concrete


Oilfields/sourceEstimated Production, USD/barrel

minimummaximumMideast/N.Africa oilfields628Other conventional oilfields639CO2 enhanced oil recovery3080Deep/ultra-deep-water oilfields3265

Enhanced oil recovery3282Arctic oilfields32100Heavy oil/bitumen3268Oil shales52113Gas to liquids38113Coal to liquids60113

Cost of oil or equivalent for various sources

Running cars on methanol

is 25% cheaper than on gasoline with today’s prices

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/28/oil-cost-factbox-idUSLS12407420090728


Methanol vs Gasoline prices as fuel for cars. The data are from

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/market-data/oil

http://www.methanex.com/products/methanolprice.html

Why is it not

done?


1. Water electrolysis: low temperature electrolysis (alkaline process) requires Pt for > 80% efficiency.

All the world’s Pt resources are insufficient to affect energy infrastructure

Without Pt, efficiency is 50% (1 atm) - 80% (@high pressure)

ResourceAvailability, in metric tonsYears to exhaustion with the current

consumption rate and technology

Annual production including recycling

Known resources

Platinum (2010)(total world stockpile 183)

3.5 new +26 recovered

6,500(95% in SA)

NA

Electricity to fuel. Materials aspect 1


2. Water electrolysis: high temperature electrolysis (reversed fuel cells)

Materials are not restricted (Y, Zr, Ni, Co)

Efficiency @120 C 45%; @ 850 C < 65%;

Theoretically FEASIBLE; practically not tested

3. CO2 to CO electrolysis: Available data are insufficient.

ResourceAvailability, in metric tonsYears to exhaustion with

the current consumption rate and technology


Known resources

Yttrium (2010)8900540,00060Ziconium (2010, ktons)11905600047

Cobalt (2010)88,000 7,300,000 82

Electricity to fuel. Materials aspect 2


Solar cells energy payback time

NREL, 2010

optimistic …

Real -

c-Si ≈ 10 yr, pc-Si ≈5 yr, a-Si ≈ 5 yr

admin


ResourceAvailability, in metric tonsYears to exhaustion with

the current consumption

rate and technology


Known resources

Indium (2010)574N/AProbably <10

Gallium (2008)184N/AProbably <10

Tellurium (2010)15522,000140

Selenium (2009)(US declined to disclose)

2,28088,00039

Cadmium (2010)22,000660,00030

Do we have the materials?

For sure Si, Ti and organics are available in really large quantities

Sufficient for large-

scale applications ??

Modern Society is based on “ cheap ” energy and materials.

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