Modelling Water & Life
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Modelling Water & Life4 in 40
Corey J. A. Bradshaw1,2
1THE ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE, University of Adelaide, Australia2South Australian Research & Development Institute
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• > 4 million protists
• 16600 protozoa
• 75000-300000 helminth parasites
• 1.5 million fungi
• 320000 plants
• 4-6 million arthropods
• > 6500 amphibians
• > 30000 fishes
• 10000 birds
• > 5000 mammals
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99 % of ALL species that have ever existed...
EXTINCTspecies lifespan = 1-10 M years
Ordovician (490-443 MYA)
Devonian (417-354 MYA)
Permian (299-250 MYA)
Triassic (251-200 MYA)
Cretaceous (146-64 MYA)
Anthropoceneextinction rate 100-10000 background
Crutzen 2002 Nature 415:23; Bradshaw & Brook 2009 J Cosmol 2:221-229© T
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• reduce desertification• maintain soils• crop pollination• seed dispersal• food provision• water purification• fuel provision• fibre provision• climate regulation• flood regulation• disease regulation• waste decomposition/detoxification• nutrient cycling• soil formation• primary production• pharmaceutical sources• cultural appreciation (aesthetic, spiritual, educational, recreational…)
• €50 billion lost/year• Land-based ecosystem loss €545 billion by 2010• > €14 trillion/year lost by 2050
Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI):The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target.
European Commission
€153 billion/year
fisheries: €50 billion/year
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• 1,011,000 km2 lost 2000-2005 (3.1 %; 0.6 %/year)• highest in boreal biome (60 %)• humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)• dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)• N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent• Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR Congo
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Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol 13:2379-2395
1990-2000• ~100,000 people killed• 320 million people displaced• total reported damages > US$1151 billion
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Ohl & Tapsell 2000 Br Med J 321:1167-1168; Ivers & Ryan 2006 Curr Op Infect Dis 19:408-414
• schistosomiasis
• malaria
• leptospirosis
• dysentery
• cholera
• hepatitis
• typhus
increased host habitat availability & displacement of humans to areas where inadequate sanitation and temporary high-density living promote disease
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Mellin et al. 2010 Glob Ecol Biogeog 19:212
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Taylor’s Power Law (TPL)
Relationship between log-transformed abundances (N) and temporal variance (s2) = line with a slope of 2
log mean abundance
log
vari
ance
2 2.5 3 3.5 4
3
4
5
6
Kilpatrick & Ives (2003) – Nature
TPL slope decreases as the strength of competition between species increases
deviations from TPL:
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3.0 0.42.2 0.4
1.5 0.3
Reef area Reef isolation
3.1 0.4
2.0 0.3
1.7 0.3
Mellin et al. 2010 Ecology doi:10.1890/10-0267.1
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Mellin et al. 2010 Ecology doi:10.1890/10-0267.1
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• natural forest loss2005-1990 D/ha
• natural habitat conversionhuman-modified landcover/total landcover
• marine captures1990-2005 fish, whales, seals/EEZ km
• fertiliser useNPK/ha arable land
• water pollutionbiochemical oxygen demand/total renewable water resources
• carbon emissionsforestry, land-use change, fossil fuels/km2
• biodiversity threatRed List threatened birds, mammals, amphibians/listed species
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
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Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
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Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
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per capita prosperity
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KUZNETS CURVE
Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
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Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440
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www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw
ConservationBytes.com
• Barry Brook University of Adelaide
• Julian Caley AIMS
• Xingli Giam Princeton University
• Mark Meekan AIMS
• Camille Mellin University of Adelaide/AIMS
• Kelvin Peh University of Leeds
• Navjot S. Sodhi National University of Singapore
• Ian Warkentin Memorial University
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