Modelling Sector Demands P.R. Shukla. Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission,...
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Transcript of Modelling Sector Demands P.R. Shukla. Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission,...
Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost
Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL)
Long-Term Demand
Projection ModelTechnology Shares
End-useDemand
Transport Agriculture Residential CommercialIndustry
Urban Rural
Steel
Cement Aluminum Sugar
Chlor-Alkali Paper Brick
Textiles Fertilizer Others
End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)
Integrated Bottom-Up Modeling System
Indian Economy
Transport Agriculture Residential CommercialIndustry
Urban Rural
Steel
Cement Aluminum Sugar
Chlor-Alkali Paper Brick
Textiles Fertilizer Others
End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)
Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model
AIM/ENDUSE Model for India: Demand Projections
GDP
Transport GVA
Commercial GVA
Agriculture GVA
Industry GVA
FCE
PFCE
Passenger GVA
Freight GVA
Rail Road Air Rail Road Water
Steel mt
Aluminum mt
Cement mt
Brick no.
Paper mt
Textile metre
Sugar mt
Chlor-Alkali mt
Fertilizer mt
Oth. Ind. GVA
Electricity PJ
LPG PJ
KerosenePJ
HSDPJ
FuelwoodPJ
IrrigationPJ
TillingPJ
ThreshingPJ
Urban HhPFCE
Rural Hh PFCE
Lighting lumen hrs
Cooking PJ
Appliances No./ PJ
Electricity mt
Coalmt
HSDmt
Fuel-Oilmt
GDP
Transport GVA
Commercial GVA
Agriculture GVA
Industry GVA
FCE
PFCE
Passenger GVA
Freight GVA
Rail Road Air Rail Road Water
Steel mt
Aluminum mt
Cement mt
Brick no.
Paper mt
Textile metre
Sugar mt
Chlor-Alkali mt
Fertilizer mt
Oth. Ind. GVA
Electricity PJ
LPG PJ
KerosenePJ
HSDPJ
FuelwoodPJ
IrrigationPJ
TillingPJ
ThreshingPJ
Urban HhPFCE
Rural Hh PFCE
Lighting lumen hrs
Cooking PJ
Appliances No./ PJ
Electricity mt
Coalmt
HSDmt
Fuel-Oilmt
GDP
Transport GVA
Commercial GVA
Agriculture GVA
Industry GVA
FCE
PFCE
Passenger GVA
Freight GVA
Rail Road Air Rail Road Water
Steel mt
Aluminum mt
Cement mt
Brick no.
Paper mt
Textile metre
Sugar mt
Chlor-Alkali mt
Fertilizer mt
Oth. Ind. GVA
Electricity PJ
LPG PJ
KerosenePJ
HSDPJ
FuelwoodPJ
IrrigationPJ
TillingPJ
ThreshingPJ
Urban HhPFCE
Rural Hh PFCE
Lighting lumen hrs
Cooking PJ
Appliances No./ PJ
Electricity mt
Coalmt
HSDmt
Fuel-Oilmt
GDP
Transport GVA
Commercial GVA
Agriculture GVA
Industry GVA
FCE
PFCE
Passenger GVA
Freight GVA
Rail Road Air Rail Road Water
Steel mt
Aluminum mt
Cement mt
Brick no.
Paper mt
Textile metre
Sugar mt
Chlor-Alkali mt
Fertilizer mt
Oth. Ind. GVA
Electricity PJ
LPG PJ
KerosenePJ
HSDPJ
FuelwoodPJ
IrrigationPJ
TillingPJ
ThreshingPJ
Urban HhPFCE
Rural Hh PFCE
Lighting lumen hrs
Cooking PJ
Appliances No./ PJ
Electricity mt
Coalmt
HSDmt
Fuel-Oilmt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Ste
el (
mil
lion
ton
)
Sectoral Demand Projection: Logistic Regression
Demand Projection for Steel
In ((Yt / Yo)/(1- Yt / Yo)) = a + bt
t = time period
Yt = level of demand at time t
Y0 = asymptotic limit for the demand Yt
a,b : Parameters to be estimated
exp(a + bt)1+exp(a + bt)
Yt = Y0
GDP
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
Rs.
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Industry GVA
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
Rs.
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Transport GVA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
Rs.
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Commercial GVA
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
Rs.
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Agriculture GVA
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
Rs.
Low Growth Medium High Growth
PFCE
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
Rs.
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Smelting reduction furnace
Blast furnace
Sintering Machine
Coke Oven
Basic Oxygen furnace /OH
Caster
Reheating furnace
Annealing furnace
Reheating furnace
Electric arc
furnace
DRI
Power device
Sp. Iron Scrap
Nat. Gas (NGA)
Cold rolled steel prod.
Hot rolled steel prod.
ZSS
Terminal
Purchased coke (COK)
Iron ore (YIR) Limestone (CEK) Coal (COL) Purchased
Electricity (ELI)
Coke oven gas
Terminal
Terminal
Terminal
Terminal
Terminal Blast furnace
gas
Utility
Independent Power Plant
Basic Oxygen furnace gas
Electricity Heat
Hot coke
Sinter
Hot metal
Molten steel
Slabs, blooms, billets
Hot rolled steel products
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Steel Process Figure
Steel Demand Projection
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
s
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Aluminum Demand Projection
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
s
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Cement Process Figure
Grinding
Kiln
Cement
Packing
Lime StoneElectricityCoal Fuel Oil
Clay
Raw meal
Clinker
Cement
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Grinding
Kiln
Cement
Packing
Lime StoneElectricityCoal Fuel Oil
Clay
Raw meal
Clinker
Cement
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Cement Demand Projection
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
s
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Paper Process FigureHard Wood
Mechanical pulp
Chemical pulp
Hydro pulp
Bleaching of pulp
Stock preparation
Paper Machine
Agri. residue Waste Paper
Caustic Soda
Finished Products
Electricity Coal Utility
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Hard Wood
Mechanical pulp
Chemical pulp
Hydro pulp
Bleaching of pulp
Stock preparation
Paper Machine
Agri. residue Waste Paper
Caustic Soda
Finished Products
Electricity Coal Utility
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Paper Demand Projection
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
s
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Brick Process Figure
Bull Trench Kiln
Coal
VSBK High Draught Kiln Clamps
Biomass
Bricks
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Bull Trench Kiln
Coal
VSBK High Draught Kiln Clamps
Biomass
Bricks
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Brick Demand Projection
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
No.'
s
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Fertilizer Demand Projection
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
s
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Caustic Soda Process Figure Salt
Brine Preparation &
Purification
ElectricityCoal
Caustic Soda
Brine Electrolysis
Evaporation &
Salt Preparation
Utility
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Salt
Brine Preparation &
Purification
ElectricityCoal
Caustic Soda
Brine Electrolysis
Evaporation &
Salt Preparation
Utility
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Caustic Soda Demand Projection
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
s
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Soda Ash Demand Projection
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
s
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Sugar Demand Projection
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Mil
lion
Ton
s
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Textile Demand Projection
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Mil
lion
mts
.
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Transport Technology Options
ROAD Vehicles
PASSENGERGOODS
2-Wheeler Heavy Truck (Diesel)
3-Wheeler Light Truck (Diesel)
Petrol Car Heavy Truck (CNG)
Diesel Car Light Truck (CNG)
CNG Car
RAIL Vehicles
Steam Loco
Diesel Loco
Electric Loco
Reference Energy System for Transport
Gasoline
Heavy Oil
Diesel
CNG
Electricity
Coal
ATF
2-W
3-W
4-W
Bus
HCV
LCV
Diesel Train
Electric Train
Passenger Aircraft
Steam Train
Ship
Road PKMS
Road TKMS
Rail TKMS
Air PKMS
Water TKMS
Rail PKMS
Growth of Traffic in India
Passenger (Billion PKms) Goods (Billion TKms)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Road Rail Air
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Road Rail Air
0
900
1800
2700
3600
4500
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Road Rail
0
900
1800
2700
3600
4500
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Road Rail
Road Freight Demand Projections
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
TK
MS
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Road Passenger Demand Projections
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
PK
MS
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Air Passenger Transport Demand Projections
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
PK
MS
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Ship Freight Transport Demand Projections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
TK
MS
Low Growth Medium High Growth
Rail Passenger Transport Demand Projections
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Bil
lion
PK
MS
Low Growth Medium High Growth