Modelling benefits at project, programme and portfolio level for EDF's Nuclear generation fleet,...

+44 (0)1225 820980 www.bmt-hqs.com [email protected] ©BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd

23 June 2016

Modelling Benefits at Project, Programme and Portfolio Level for EDF’s Nuclear Generation Fleet

David Liversidge

Principal Consultant


Background - the Problem

Our Approach

Our Plan

The Outputs: Models, Maps, Profiles, KPIs

An Unexpected Journey: from Project to Programme to Portfolio and back again

Conclusions

Overview


EDF Nuclear Generation are the licensed operators of a Fleet of 7 Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors (AGRs)

With a range of Plant Life Extensions (PLEX) campaigns, the fleet is planned to be retired between 2025 and 2035

Lifetime Programmes are an organisation within EDF responsible for delivering a range of strategic programmes to ensure safe, cost-effective operation of the fleet for its remaining life

Carbon Deposition is one such cross-cutting lifetime programme; aimed at mitigating the effects of carbon build-up on the reactor fuel and auxiliary systems

The Carbon Deposition programme comprised 5 workstreams: Prevent; Remove; Harden; Understand; and Manage

BMT HQS were originally tasked by EDF to help deliver the major project under the ‘Prevent’ workstream called Deposition Resistant Fuel (DRF)

The DRF project was approaching its major investment decision point and our tasking was extended to cover development of a benefits model and realisation plan for this project

Background


Our Approach

Understand & Model the System

Identify & Map the Benefits

Value & Profile the Benefits

Plan Benefits Realisation

Confirm investment rationale & VFM in

portfolio

Ensure accountability & transparency

Develop a logical basis for future steps

Define system into which the benefits will be delivered

Realise Benefits

Physical & Management Systems Interfaces & Relationships understood. Problem and solution space bounded. Baseline ‘As-is’ performance agreed

Causal relationships between candidate change projects & programmes, outcomes, & benefits agreed. Scale of benefits estimated. Interdependencies between changes characterised

Time-phased profiles of benefits showing quantified baseline & target levels in financial & non-financial terms. Balance of investment options appraised.

Benefits prioritised, appropriate tracking measures selected & assigned to BCMs. Plan to realise benefits & mitigate blockers.

BCMs monitor & report via PMO / PfMO


Our Plan


Output 1: Rich Picture


Catalytic CD on

Fuel Pins

Fuel Element

Heat Transfer

Impairment

Increase in Clad

Temp

Post Irradiation

Examination

HTI

Assessment

Process

Increase in

Fission Gas

Pressure

Modelled

Values

(Temperature &

FGP)

Measured

retrospectively

(post dwell) by

Recrystallisation

Clad Melt

Clad Cracking

Increased

Temperature

Variations

Start-Up RFF

Fuel Fault

Studies

Fuel Duties

Fuel Failure

Limiting

Conditions of

Operation

Safety Cases

Assessed

retrospectively

(post dwell) by

HTI SRU

Allowances

Safety Case

Anomaly

Process

If HTI

Allowances >

Safety Case

Limits

Management System

Fuel System

Normal Fuel

System

Operation

Prevents

Defines

Operational

Restrictions

Failed Fuel

stringers

removed early

Failed Fuel

bottled and

stored at station

Failed Fuel

moved to B13

Causes

Failed Fuel

subject to PIE

Failed Fuel

processed and

stored long term

Failed Fuel Route

Nuclear Safety

Requirements

Clad melt

Depressurisatio

n

Asymmetry

PCI Technical

Specifications

X%

100 - X%

Fission Gas

Over Pressure

Modelled

retrospectively

(post dwell) by If modelled

values >LCOs

Constrains

Station Compliance Route

Catalytic CD on

Boiler

Components

Boiler Heat

Transfer

Impairment

Spalled Carbon

Impairs Gas

and Fuel Route

Plant

Reduced Boiler

Thermal

Efficiency

Gas/steam

Temperature

Monitoring

Increased

Rework &

Maintenance Monitored ‘in

line’ by

Boiler System

Normal Boiler

System

Operation

Prevents

Output 2: System Model


[Redacted]

Output 3: Benefits Maps


[Redacted]

Output 4: Benefit Profiles


[Redacted]

Output 5: Realisation Plan (KPI)


An Unexpected Journey: from Project to Programme to Portfolio and Back Again


An Unexpected Journey: from Project to Programme to Portfolio and Back Again

Plan Benefits Realisation

Understand & Model the System

Identify & Map the Benefits

Developed a logical system model to capture the complex interactions between the problem (Carbon Deposition) and the impacts of this on the system

Developed a logical benefits map which helped EDF to gain an understanding of how to manage its whole portfolio as opposed to stand-alone projects and programmes

Developed a benefits profiling tool combined with cost modelling work to enable a ‘complete package’ of cost-benefit analysis for a range of assumptions, what-if scenarios. Working with a wide group of stakeholders added robustness to the decision making process

Value & Profile the Benefits

Development of KPIs for ongoing management of Carbon Deposition

This analysis enabled EDF to prioritise their investment across the portfolio and take a conscious strategic decision of alternative action to invest based on maximising safety and financial benefits


Be careful what you ask for!

‘Whole System’ models can help understanding and identifying complex cause-and-effect chains; especially where the ‘problem’ consists of technical and organisational systems interacting

Stakeholder engagement throughout the process is vital

A Benefits driven view of dependencies at programme and portfolio level gives an invaluable perspective to support decisions and ongoing change management

A Time based perspective of Benefits is key: the baseline now will not be the same as the baseline at implementation; you need to understand if some of your ‘sandwiches will be eaten’

Benefits Quantification is an inexact science: maps and models will help but values will be a mix of objective and subjective. You therefore need to understand risk and uncertainty and model in your estimates including sensitivity (what-if) analysis to test key assumptions

Presentation of results must support decisions: Investment Appraisals and Business Cases; Discounted Cash Flows;

There should be a parity of rigour in developing cost and benefits, as well as shared data, assumptions, risks, etc.

key lessons EDF Case Study

thank you


BMT Hi-Q Sigma Ltd Berkeley House, The Square Lower Bristol Road Bath, BA2 3BH United Kingdom www.bmt-hqs.com Tel: +44 (0) 1225 820980 Fax: +44 (0) 1225 820981 Mob: +44 (0)

David Liversidge

[email protected]

7799 903549

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Modelling benefits at project, programme and portfolio level for EDF's Nuclear generation fleet,...

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