Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of...

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Modeling … What’s the Use? Paul McGinley Center for Watershed Science & Education UW Stevens Point Lake Leaders 2014

Transcript of Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of...

Page 1: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Modeling … What’s the Use? Paul McGinley

Center for Watershed Science & Education UW Stevens Point

Lake Leaders 2014

Page 2: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

What’s a model One definition:

A mathematical description to help visualize something

Model airplane

Very large computer

http://www.modelplanes.com/private-airplanes/assembled-airplanes/gulfstreamiv.cfm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Columbia_Supercomputer_-_NASA_Advanced_Supercomputing_Facility.jpg
Page 3: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Example– General Circulation Model

http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/AtmosphericModelSchematic.png

Page 4: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

What’s a model

One definition: A mathematical description to help visualize something

Can this help us “visualize” how past actions have

led to a current condition or help us “visualize” how future actions could

alter the current condition

Page 5: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Today…. 1) Watersheds and 2) Lakes & 3) Streams

• Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models

• Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples (simple & not so simple) – Compare & contrast

Goal- Understand if these might be useful & what is an appropriate model (and most important… not make a potentially confusing topic more confusing…)

Page 6: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Part 1 – Watersheds

Define- that area where the water drains to the outlet point of interest

Page 7: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Define- that area where the water drains to the outlet point of interest

all of the land surface belongs to a “watershed”

Page 8: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Our Watershed Interest This Morning --- Water, Sediment & Nutrients (could be others)

Page 9: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Precipitation = ___ inches/yr

Event Flow Baseflow

Evapotranspiration = ___ inches/yr

Page 10: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Precipitation = 32 inches/yr

Event Flow Baseflow

Evapotranspiration = 22 inches/yr

Page 11: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Precipitation = 32 inches/yr

Event Flow Baseflow

Evapotranspiration = 22 inches/yr

Watershed “Runoff” = ___ inches/yr

Page 12: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Precipitation = 32 inches/yr

Event Flow Baseflow

Evapotranspiration = 22 inches/yr

Watershed “Runoff” = 10 inches/yr

Page 13: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Precipitation = 32 inches/yr

Event Flow Baseflow

Evapotranspiration = 22 inches/yr

Watershed “Runoff” = 10 inches/yr

10 inches /year on 1 square mile… = 23,000,000 cubic feet /year!

Page 14: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Precipitation = 32 inches/yr

Event Flow Baseflow

Evapotranspiration = 22 inches/yr

Watershed “Runoff” = 10 inches/yr

10 inches /year on 1 square mile… = 23,000,000 cubic feet /year! = 0.7 cubic foot every second!

Page 15: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Let’s Model That for a lake at the outlet! • We just did

• Water Budget

Lake Groundwater

Surface Runoff

Precipitation - Evaporation

Outflow

Page 16: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Let’s Model That! • We just did

Lake Groundwater

Surface Runoff

Precipitation - Evaporation

Outflow

(10 in/year)*(Watershed Area) Water Entering the Lake Each Year =

Page 17: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Rule #1

“All models are wrong but some are useful” George Box

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GeorgeEPBox.jpg
Page 18: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

• Useful? –Residence time =

= Amount of Water in Lake Rate Which Water Leaves Lake

Page 19: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

• Useful? –Say 10,000 acre lake, mean depth of 40

feet with a 150,000 acre watershed –Residence time estimate =

= (10,000 acre)(40 feet mean depth) (150,000 acre)(0.83 ft/yr) = 3.2 years

Page 20: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Limitations

• Year-to-Year Variations? • Different parts of the watershed have different

response – Impervious surfaces – Compacted soil / raindrop impact

Page 21: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

How can we improve this model?

• Spatial Variability • Temporal Variability

• Of course this comes at a cost… is it necessary? Is it worth it?

Page 22: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

22”

32”

10”

Land

Modeling the Land?

Very Simple Very Complex

Annual Volume

Follow Every drop

Page 23: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

22”

32”

10”

Land

Modeling the Water on Land?

Very Simple Very Complex

Annual Volume

Follow Every drop

Annual But

Divide by

Land use

Short Time Step

Spatially Variable

Daily Time Step

Spatial Lumping

Separate Annual Ground Water

& Surface Runoff

Page 24: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Closely Related…Nutrient Movement

• Just talked about water movement on land

• Next… Nutrients Loss from Land –then Lakes & Streams

Page 25: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Let’s look at Phosphorus Movement

• Important Implications for Lakes & Streams

• Oligotrophic - “few” “foods” • Eutrophic – “many” “foods”

http://www.secchidipin.org/trophic_state.htm

Page 26: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

45,000 lb plant P 50,000 lb organic matter P 250,000 lbs soil P (top 6”)

350,000 lb P

/sq mile Adapted from Yanai, R.D., 1992. Phosphorus Budget of a 70-year-old northern hardwood forest Biogeochemistry 17:1-22

Where is the phosphorus?

Page 27: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Phosphorus

40 microgram P /liter

300,000 microgram P

/”liter”

Page 28: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

• Water Across Land = Phosphorus in the Water

Page 29: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Interesting Modeling Challenge

• Pathway that the water takes is important • The soil & vegetation it contacts is important

• Higher Land Concentration--- More P • More Surface Runoff Water – More P

Page 30: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Modeling P Movement

• Let’s consider two approaches

– 1) every year the same, some adjustment for land use

– 2) try to track the daily runoff / some characteristics of the land

Page 31: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Tale of Two Pathways

2 inch/year @ 1

mg/l = 0.45 lb/acre

/year

(+ 9 inch/yr @ 0.02 mg/l)

10 inch/year @ 0.02 mg/l <

0.01 lb/acre /year

Page 32: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

“Phosphorus Export Coefficients” (pounds/acre-year)

Low Most Likely High Agriculture

(Mixed) 0.3 0.8 1.4

Med Density Urban

0.3 0.5 0.8

Pasture 0.1 0.3 0.5 Forest 0.05 0.09 0.18

Atmospheric (lake surface)

0.1 0.3 0.5

Adapted from WiLMS, Wisconsin Lake Modeling Suite http://dnr.wi.gov/lakes/model/

Page 33: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Useful?

• Estimate the long term average P transfer from a watershed to the lake – 90,000 acres Row Crop

• 90,000 ac*0.8 lb/ac-year = 72,000 lbs/year – 30,000 acres Pasture/Grass

• 30,000 ac*0.3 lb/ac-year = 9,000 lbs/year – 30,000 acres Med Den Urban

• 30,000 ac*0.5 lb/ac-year = 15,000 lbs/year

– TOTAL = 96,000 lbs/year

Page 34: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Challenges: Annual Variations in P to Lake!

• P Load (lb) to Lake (Lathrop and Panuska)

Page 35: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

•Watershed •250 km2

•SWAT Model

•10 subbasins •119 HRUs

•Calibration •2 years flow/ TSS / TP •Matched total w/ CN • Adjusting USLEP, Filterw •Tried to fit P fractions and P Content

More Complicated Model Spatial Variations Daily Rainfall Output by Day Varies Year to Year

Page 36: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

22”

32”

10”

Land

Modeling the Land?

Very Simple Very Complex

Annual Volume x Average Concentration

Follow Every drop

Annual Export Based on Land use

Short Time Step

Spatially Variable

Daily Time Step

Spatial Lumping

Avg. Annual

Spatially Variable

Page 37: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Part 2 - LAKES

Page 38: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Zooplankton

Bacteria

WATER

Algae

FISH Water Quality

N U T R I E N T S

• Important • But what do we want to model?

– Water level, Algal density, Fish, Phosphorus Concentration

• Complex?

Page 39: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Our First Model

• Goal– predict the P concentration

Given • The amount of P entering the lake • The amount of water entering the lake

Page 40: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Phosphorus Entering

Phosphorus leaving In water

Water Entering

~Mix~

Page 41: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

How does this calculate concentration?

Phosphorus Entering

Phosphorus leaving In water

Water Entering

~Mix~

Concentration of P = CP = Mass of Phosphorus /Volume of Water

Page 42: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Let’s give this a try

• 10,000 acre lake • 150,000 acre watershed

Recall our simple watershed model… • 96,000 lb/year P • 125,000 acre-ft/year water

Phosphorus Entering

Phosphorus leaving In water

Water Entering

Page 43: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

“Simple Model”

• Concentration of P

= Mass of P / Volume of Water

= 285 ug/l

Page 44: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Take a look at some data

Lathrop and Panuska 1998

285 ug/l

Page 45: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Not a very good model

• Why?

• What happens to P in a lake?

• Another observation on modeling – “Everything should be made as simple

as possible, but no simpler” A. Einstein

Page 46: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Historical Note– 1960s… higher “Inflow P Conc” OK if you have a longer residence time

We just calculated this (inflow concentration)

Page 47: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

“Vollenweider Plots”

Page 48: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Mendota(22)

Camelot/Sherwood(4)

Redstone(31)

(mean depth/water res time) = qs

L gram P

per m2-yr

Page 49: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Second Model Phosphorus

Entering

Phosphorus leaving In water

Water Entering

“mean total P concentration is amount of phosphorus divided by volume of water and diminished by retention

term as P apparently lost to sediments” (Nurnberg, 1984)

Page 50: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Second Model Phosphorus

Entering

Phosphorus leaving In water

Phosphorus settling In lake

Water Entering

“mean total P concentration is amount of phosphorus divided by volume of water and diminished by retention

term as P apparently lost to sediments” (Nurnberg, 1984)

Page 51: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

• Uniform (“steady-state”) Conditions – The P concentration doesn’t change with time – The amount of P in the lake is constant

– What goes in must be equal to what goes out

P Into Lake =

P Flowing Out of Lake

+ P

Lost To

“Settling”

Page 52: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Uniform (“steady-state”) Conditions The P concentration doesn’t change with time The amount of P in the lake is constant

vAQMCP +

=

Phosphorus Concentration in Lake

Mass of Phosphorus per year entering lake

Amount of water Entering lake in a year Settling term

(“settling velocity” * Area

With this added

Page 53: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Let’s give this a try

• 10,000 acre lake • 150,000 acre watershed

Assume • 96,000 lb/year P • 125,000 acre-feet water/year • 40,500,000 m2 lake surface • 10 meter/year settling velocity

Phosphorus Entering

Phosphorus leaving In water

Water Entering

Page 54: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Our “Less Simple Model”

• Concentration of P

= 79 ug/l (better?)

• Useful?

Page 55: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Annual Phosphorus

Input

Annual Water Input

Annual Phosphorus

Settling

Simpler Models… --completely mixed -- steady with time

Complex Models… --segments in lake --vary with time --biology!

Page 56: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

What about this Steady-State Assumption?

• Is that an important assumption?

• What about concentrations that vary during the growing season

• What about long-term trends or large year-to-year variations?

Page 57: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

What about the P concentration in this lake?

Page 58: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Phosphorus Concentration Algal

Concentration

Lake Response Model?

Page 59: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

• Useful?

Page 60: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

But we can make this very complex!

Page 61: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Lake Model with changing daily inputs and spatial variations within the lake…

Page 62: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Summary Discussion

• Watershed – Water Budget – Phosphorus Budget

• Lake – Concentrations – Response

• Simple – Reduce Spatial

Variations – Long Term Averages

• Complex

– Time and Space Variations

– Daily / Yearly Variations

Page 63: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Questions Paul McGinley UW-Stevens Point [email protected] (715) 346-4501

mailto:[email protected]
Page 64: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples
Page 65: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples
Page 66: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

80 lb Phosphorus/yr

325 million gallons/year

A model for the

phosphorus concentration

in a lake

Amount of Phosphorus

= ------------------------

Amount of Water

Page 67: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

80 lb Phosphorus/yr

325 million gallons/year

= 80 lb/ 325 million gallons =

Page 68: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

80 lb Phosphorus/yr

325 million gallons/year

= 80 lb/ 3 billion lbs water=

Page 69: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

80 lb Phosphorus/yr

325 million gallons/year

= 80 lb/ 3 billion lbs water= 27 ppb

Page 70: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Why Model?

• Groundwater flow– where water is coming from?

• Lake concentration —what if we change the amount added?

• Watershed modeling– can watershed changes help and by how much?

• In-Lake Restoration – “experiment” with treatment, diversions etc.

Page 71: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

22”

32”

10”

Watershed Models

Page 72: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Land is a concentrated nutrient source

40 microgram

/liter

300,000 microgram

/liter

Page 73: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Simple Model: Assign annual transfer rate to different land uses

Complex Model: Simulate every storm, interaction with ground, conveyance to channel, transport to lake

Page 74: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Phosphorus Concentration

(µg/l) Productivity

10 Low (Oligotrophic)

10-20 Medium (Mesotrophic)

Greater than 20 High (Eutrophic)

Lake Models

Page 75: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Annual Phosphorus

Input

Annual Water Input

Annual Phosphorus

Settling

Simpler Models… --completely mixed -- steady with time

Complex Models… --segments in lake --vary with time --biology!

Page 76: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Phosphorus Concentration Algal

Concentration

Lake Response Model?

Page 77: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Current Condition

Page 78: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Application to Portage County

Page 79: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

22”

32”

10”

Land

Modeling the Land?

Very Simple Very Complex

Annual Volume x Average Concentration

Follow Every drop

Page 80: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

22”

32”

10”

Land

Modeling the Land?

Very Simple Very Complex

Annual Volume x Average Concentration

Follow Every drop

Annual Export Based on Land use

Short Time Step

Spatially Variable

Daily Time Step

Spatial Lumping

Avg. Annual

Spatially Variable

Page 81: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Median Nitrate

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

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Spring

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Mill P

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Spring

ville

NO2+

NO3-N

(mg/

L)

Median Chloride

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Bear

Jacq

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TwinWolf

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(mg/

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Page 82: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Median Total Phosphorus

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Adams

Onland

Jona

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Lions

Rinehart

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TP (μ

g/L)

Median Chlorophyll A

02468

101214161820

Thomas

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Page 83: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Average Total Hardness in Portage Co. Lakes

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Page 84: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Portage County Model

• Groundwater Inputs (groundwater modeling)

Page 85: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Groundwater Flow System

Page 86: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Portage County Model

Relatively Simple Lake Model

sss QvAWC+

=

QvAWCSS +

=

Annual Phosphorus = P-Undeveloped + P-Developed

Amount of Water

“Settling Factor”

Page 87: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Used Actual Lake Data to Determine Watershed Export

Coefficients

Page 88: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Portage County Model

Use Lake Phosphorus to Predict Lake Chlorophyll

Page 89: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Current Condition

Page 90: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Questions

Page 91: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

WATERSHED DELINEATION DISCUSSION

Page 92: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Watershed Delineation

• Topography • Groundwater Complications • Tools

– WDNR Surface Water Data Viewer – New WDNR Tools (soon in PRESTO)

Page 93: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

L-THIA

• LTHIA

Page 94: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples
Page 95: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

WDNR SWDV (Surface Water Data Viewer)

Page 96: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples
Page 97: Modeling … What’s the Use? · Functioning – big picture arm waving – & the development of “Conceptual” Models • Modeling Approaches – – Fundamentals – Examples

Groundwater Flow System


Modeling dynamic functioning of rectangular ...

Modeling dynamic functioning of rectangular ...

THE WAVING OF FLAGS AND TORCHES: A STUDY … WAVING OF FLAGS AND TORCHES: A STUDY OF TACTICAL COMMUNICATIONS IN THE SIGNAL CORPS ... waving of . flags and torchesAuthors: Ronald W

THE WAVING OF FLAGS AND TORCHES: A STUDY … WAVING OF FLAGS AND TORCHES: A STUDY OF TACTICAL COMMUNICATIONS IN THE SIGNAL CORPS ... waving of . flags and torchesAuthors: Ronald W

Hand-waving and Interpretive Dancejbridge/TNLectureNotes.pdf · Hand-waving and Interpretive Dance: ... The lectures are intended to be generally accessible, ... 6.3 Some PEPS examples

Hand-waving and Interpretive Dancejbridge/TNLectureNotes.pdf · Hand-waving and Interpretive Dance: ... The lectures are intended to be generally accessible, ... 6.3 Some PEPS examples

Waving not drowning

Waving not drowning

Waving Flavours

Waving Flavours

MECHANICAL MODELING OF SKELETAL MUSCLE FUNCTIONING

MECHANICAL MODELING OF SKELETAL MUSCLE FUNCTIONING

Use of Vollenweider-OECD Modeling to Evaluate … · R. Anne Jones1 and G. Fred Lee1 Use of Vollenweider-OECD Modeling to Evaluate Aquatic Ecosystem Functioning REFERENCE: Jones,

Use of Vollenweider-OECD Modeling to Evaluate … · R. Anne Jones1 and G. Fred Lee1 Use of Vollenweider-OECD Modeling to Evaluate Aquatic Ecosystem Functioning REFERENCE: Jones,

Explanatory Secondary Dimension Modeling of Latent Different Item Functioning

Explanatory Secondary Dimension Modeling of Latent Different Item Functioning

Adhesive Contact of Viscoelastic Spheres: a Hand-Waving ...

Adhesive Contact of Viscoelastic Spheres: a Hand-Waving ...

G4 proyecto Waving Altea

G4 proyecto Waving Altea

Coping with Technology: Waving or Drowning

Coping with Technology: Waving or Drowning

Jailed for Waving a Flag

Jailed for Waving a Flag

Waving an Open Source Flag in Australian Government

Waving an Open Source Flag in Australian Government

Technology Sea Change - Waving or Drowning?

Technology Sea Change - Waving or Drowning?

PM [D03] What is there waving?

PM [D03] What is there waving?

Hand Waving Away Scale | SpringerLink

Hand Waving Away Scale | SpringerLink

Waving Not Drowing

Waving Not Drowing

Waving detection using the FuzzyBoost algorithm and flow ......waving. The waving detector of [2] acts as an emergency signal which was tested on indoors, outdoors and several camera

Waving detection using the FuzzyBoost algorithm and flow ......waving. The waving detector of [2] acts as an emergency signal which was tested on indoors, outdoors and several camera

Full Waving Kawasaki Ninja RR

Full Waving Kawasaki Ninja RR

Issues in the Mathematical Modeling of Cortical Functioning and

Issues in the Mathematical Modeling of Cortical Functioning and