Modeling theModeling theEarth System at INPEEarth System at INPE

Domingos Urbano & Paulo Nobre

National Institute for Space Research – INPE

Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies – CPTEC

Center for Earth System Sciences – CCST

SAMOC-3

Rio de Janeiro/Niterói, 11-13 May 2010

outline

• Climate Change research programs in Brazil

• Global climate model development

• Near future enhancements on seasonal to interannual climate predictions at INPE

Climate Change Research Programs in BrazilClimate Change Research Programs in Brazil

• Rede CLIMA: Brazilian network on Climate Change Research (CCR)– 50 research groups on 10 Focal points– Grant: US$ 15 million over 5 years

• INCT-MC: National Institute on Science and Technology for CC – 26 research projects covering the science of climate change,

impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and mitigation; technological developments in climate modeling and geosensors

– 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400 researchers and students involved

– Grant: US$ 3.7 M for 3 years

• FAPESP program on CCR– New 15 TF supercomputer facility at INPE– Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System (ESM)– Grant of US$ 5 M per year during the next 10 years

“Rede CLIMA” Focal Points

Water ResourcesUFPE, Recife

Regional DevelopmentUnB, Brasília

Coastal ZonesFURG, Rio Grande

Biodiversity and EcossistemsMPEG, Belém

Cities and IndustryUnicamp, Campinas

AgricultureEMBRAPA, Campinas

Renewable EnergyCOPPE / UFRJ, RJ

Human HealthFiocruz, RJEconomy of Climate Change

USP, São PauloClimate ModelingINPE CST

 

GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

INCT - MC

INPE’s Supercomputer for Climate Change Research

Sustained Throughput

15 Tflops

Main Memory 20 TBytes

Primary Storage 3 PBytes

AquisitionInstallation Early 2010

Total budget US$ 25 M

...

and will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 20 km !

Development of a Global Climate System Model

• A single proposal will be selected

• Consortium of research institutions lead by São Paulo State institution (but engaging institutions from all over Brazil and from abroad)

• Build-up of existing experience and models developed in Brazil

• Applied to climate change research

• No “black-box” solution accepted

• Aims to developing capacity in all components of Global Climate System Modelling

• Strongly associated to PhD training

• Four years duration; US$ 1.5 M

Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System

FAQ 1.2, Figure 1

Mid 2000s

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Sulphate

Aerosol

Non-sulphate

Dynamic

Vegetation

Atmospheric

Chemistry

Aerosol

Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Sulphate

Aerosol

Non-sulphateAerosol

Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Sulphate

Aerosol

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Ocean & Sea-Ice

Atmosphere

Land Surface

Atmosphere

Around 2000Late 1990sEarly 1990sMid-1980sMid-1970s

The Climate System

Figure 1 - The Global Climate System. A modified "Bretherton Diagram"highlighting linkages between biogechemical and physical climate systems. (Guy P.Brasseur, NCAR)

CPTEC.2.0 T213L64

MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50

SSiB + NCAR’s IBIS

GFDL's FMSGFDL's FMS

INPE’s Climate Forecast INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite GoalCoupled Suite Goal

Data AssimilationData Assimilation

AGCM

OGCM

AtmosOBS

T-S

IC

Coupled ForecastCoupled Forecast

AtmosFCST

daily/hourly

SFCfluxes

SST

OGCM

AGCM

6 hourlyRegional

Model

3 hourly

HydrologyModel

CropModel

HealthModel

WaveModel

INPE’s CGCM FMS implementation

Flux Ocean to IceUpdate Ice Model up

Update Atmos ModelAtmos Loop

Atmos Loop End

Flux Ice to OceanUpdate Ice Model down

Ocean Loop

Ocean Loop EndUpdate Ocean Model

Coupled Loop

Coupled Loop

Coupler End

Coupler Init

Slo

w L

oo

pS

low

Lo

op

Fas

t F

ast

Fas

t F

ast

Land Loop

Land Loop EndUpdate Land Model

Fas

t F

ast

Flux Ice to LandUpdate Ice Model down

Component models…

• Atmos GCM: – CPTEC.2.0 mpi/open_mp, – Semi-Lagrangian, – Resolution T62L64; T126L64; T213L64

• Increased PBL and Stratosphere vertical resolution– RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection

• Improved stratus parameterization scheme– atmospheric chemistry & aerosols

• Land Surface Model: IBIS/INLAND– Dynamic vegetation– Carbon Cycle– Fire Model– Improved hires land surface hidrology

Component models…

• OGCM: – MOM4, – Global, 1/4 x 1/4 deep tropics, – L50, 10m spacing upper 250 m, – Philander and Pakanowski vertical mixing– free surface, – fresh water flux, – river inflow;– Dynamical ice model (SIS)– Biogeochemistry model (Topaz, Bling)

• GFDLs FSM coupler– Up to 3-hourly coupling interval (lim. atmos radiation)

INPE developments on the atmospheric chemistry modeling

Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the RAMSdevelopments on the RAMS

CATT

280tot

parcel env

al

Th kWm

rw

T

230 total

parcel envh kWm

T T

rw

2

230

80

w h kWm

w h kWm

Injection layerInjection layer

plume top lower bound

plume top upper bound

1D plume-rise model for vegetation fires 1D plume-rise model for vegetation fires Biome: Biome: ForestForestTime duration: 50 mnFire size: 20 haHeat flux: 80 kWm-2 / 30 kWm-2

Including plume rise mechanism trough

”super-parameterization” concept

aero-dynamics

energybalance

waterbalance

ATMOSPHERE(prescribed atmospheric datasets)

nitrogen cycling

growth of leaves,stems & roots

allocationand turnover

mortality &disturbance

VEGETATION DYNAMICS MODULE

VEGETATION PHENOLOGY MODULE

canopy physics

L A N D S U R F A C EM O D U L E

gross photosynthesis,foliage respiration, &optimal C:N ratios foreach plant functional type

daily LAI

vegetation structureand biomass

temperature,photosynthesis

soil physics

canopy nitrogenallocation

t ~ minutes to hours t ~ days to weeks t ~ years

senescencebudburst dormancy

decomposition of litter& soil organic matter

soilrespiration

carbon cycling

BELOWGROUND CARBON & NITROGENCYCLING MODULE

litterfall

nitrogen supply

IBIS Structure

nitrogenmineralization nitrification denitrification

energybalance

waterbalance

photosynthesis& leaf respiration

stomatalconductance

plant physiology

gross primaryproduction

totalrespiration

net primaryproduction

INPE developments on the surface modelingINLAND

River flow and flooded areasRiver flow and flooded areas

• Aplications over: – Amazônia

– Pantanal

– Araguaia

• Implications:– Flux exchanges

between sfc and atmos– Hydrology– Carbon cycle

Costa et al., in press

HAND

3 Classes

HAND

Processes Resolved:Processes Resolved:River inflow effects on salinityRiver inflow effects on salinity

MOM4with river discharge

MOM3w/o river discharge

Ocean biogeochemistryOcean biogeochemistry MOM4p1: OCMIP-2 (diagnostic) + 3

functional groups prognostic Challenges:

Dynamic Green Ocean Models (Le Quéré & al. 2005): 10 functiona groups

Emergent Biogeography (Follows & al. 2007): emerging functional groups

Ice Cover SimulationINPE COUPLED O-A GCM

OGCM Grid

INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling

30 days avrg spinup SST

INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling

30 days avrg spinup Precip

Few results from INPE’s CGCM V.1.0

Nobre et al., 2009Journal of Climate, vol. 22

27

Vegetation Scenarios

Nobre et al. (2009)

28

1st jEOF SST-Wind Stress200 yrs ctrl run

Nobre et al. (2009)

Defor3

CTRL

ENSO like mode of variabilityreproduced by CGCM and amplified by AM deforestation

29

Long term departures average (experiment – control)

20 yrs & 10 member

• Local rainfall reduction & temperature increase over AM (> CGCM)• Precipitation and temperature increase over eastern OP (is a coupled response -- def.)

Amazon Deforestation Experiment: Increased El Niño

Conditions

PRECIPITATION

TEMPERATURE

Nobre et al. (2009)

Statistically significant departures are shaded

31

Zonal Velocities over the Pacific Ctrl (contours); Deforest – Ctrl (shades)

Nobre et al. (2009)

32

Pacific Thermocline DepthDeforest – Ctrl (shades)

Nobre et al. (2009)

33

mensagemensage• Amazon deforestation induces global rainfall, Amazon deforestation induces global rainfall,

atmospheric, and oceanic circulation pattern atmospheric, and oceanic circulation pattern changes which resemble ENSO-like states;changes which resemble ENSO-like states;

• There seems to exist a positive feedback There seems to exist a positive feedback between Amazon rainfall reduction associated between Amazon rainfall reduction associated with tropical rainforest clearing and ENSO with tropical rainforest clearing and ENSO conditions in the coupled model results;conditions in the coupled model results;

• Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling is Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling is central to produce the global-scale rainfall and central to produce the global-scale rainfall and circulation pattern changes due to tropical circulation pattern changes due to tropical deforestation.deforestation.

Planned enhancements of Seasonal and Interannual climate

predictions at CPTEC

• Enhance AGCM resolution to T213L64 op• Enhance CGCM resolution to global

– AGCM T213L64– OGCM 1/8 degree lat-lon, 50 levels

• Increase FCST time to 12 months• Increase ensemble size to 30 per model• Multi-model: RAS, Grell, Kain-Fritsch,

Kuo

Thank you

pnobre@cptec.inpe.brdomingos.urbano@cptec.inpe.br

PIRATA PBR-XI e SWE-IVPIRATA PBR-XI e SWE-IV

PART 2

CNPq 38/2009:48 XCP (1200m)2 LADCP (bottom)2 PCD+Tide Gauge

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