Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's...
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Transcript of Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's...
Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program
“It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from space...”
Edgar ZapataNASA Kennedy Space CenterOperations Analysis, Modeling & Simulation
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Contents
• NASA Context• NASA Context - Transportation vs. Exploration• What are Models & Simulations?• Example Description of a Model• Example Description of a Simulation• Models & Simulations as Software Tools• Visualizing• The Mathematical – Critical Preparation in an Education Path for M&S• In Closing
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NASA Context
The mosaic is testament to an assortment of NASA initiatives to define a direction for NASA in the post-Shuttle era.
•X-vehicle demonstrators•Technology programs•Research & development•Large scale programs•As all of the above
• Most recently…
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7/15/11 KSC O&COrion Test Article
NASA Context - Transportation vs. Exploration
• A similar distinction can be-• Access to low-Earth-orbit vs. beyond-Earth-orbit• Systems to get to space vs. in-space systems• Capability vs. goals
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(items shown not to scale)
What are Models & Simulations?
• Representations (of reality?)• Inputs become outputs• Decompositions that we put back together again in new and interesting ways (“what if”)• Analytical simplifications• Mathematical constructs• Visualizations, pictures of what we plan• Like any perception, subject to error
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https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Brain_in_a_vat
“According to such stories, the computer would then be simulating reality (including appropriate responses to the brain's own output) and the person with the "disembodied" brain would continue to have perfectly normal conscious experiences without these being related to objects or events in the real world.”
-Wikipedia
Example Description of a Model
• Generic vanilla-flavor description of a model for predicting/estimating costs of a future spaceflight system (this is not the model itself)
• Created for handling a limited number of inputs in endless combinations or “what-if’s”
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Item R&D $
Item NREC $
New item Z $
Team B NREC $Items A, B, C etc
Team B Unit $Items A, B, C etc
Item X NREC $
Item X Unit $
Other LV NREC $
Other LV Per Launch $
Team 1 Estimate
Team 2 Estimate
LV InfoLV Info
Team 3 Estimates
NREC
Unit
Excludes: PI, MO/GO, Test Flight LVs
Includes: Test Flight H-ware, P I/O
Excludes: PI, MO/GO, Test Flight LVs
Includes: Test Flight H-ware, P I/O
Team Z Estimate
LV InfoLV Info
ØØ
Program IntegrationMission/Flight Ops
Project Insight/Oversight Ground/Launch Ops
Relation Relation
Result
Exclude Elements
D, J
PSV/LV and Other LV = Fixed $
ALTERNATE MATH
Relation
Relation
Relation
Fixed
<All (except R&D)
Exclude Elements C,
M and F
MO/GO $
ALTERNATE RESULTS
PI $
ALTERNATE WHAT-IF
Path 1 P I/O
Plus
P I/O
Path 2 MO/GO
PI Path 1
Path 2 MO/GO
Plus
Path 1 MO/GO
Path 2 P I/O
Path 1 PI
Path 2 PI
Scale – apx.
Past?
NO
YES
PI Path 2
Example Description of a Simulation
• A description of a simulation for predicting/estimating the way in which multiple processes combine to effect the number of launches per year that a processing capability can achieve
• Used in “what-if’s” – where a user explores how changes in inputs alter outputs, reflecting on the real world.
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NormalOPF Flow
VAB SSVFlow
PadFlow
AscentPhase
LaunchDay
On-OrbitPhase
Launch (.59)
Press toMECO
ATO(AOA)
RTLS
TAL
EOMDay
Stay up 1extra day
DescentPhase
DescentPhase
LOV
Landat KSC
Landat DFRC
8thFlight?
Pre-PalmdaleOPF Flow
Post-PalmdaleOPF Flow
Ferry FlightKSC to Palmdale
Mateto SCA
Ferry FlightPalmdale to KSC
Removefrom SCA
Removefrom SCA
Mateto SCA
PalmdaleOMDP
Nominal RTLS Descent
Ferry FlightDFRC to KSC
Removefrom SCA
Mateto SCA
DFRCTurnaround
ScrubFlow
Landat KSC
Land atTAL Site
DescentPhase
LOV
Nominal Descent
DescentPhase
LOV
Ferry FlightTAL Site to KSC
Mateto SCA
TAL SiteTurnaround
Macro Level Model of Space Shuttle ProcessingConceptual Flow Diagram
Scrub (.41)
(.99850)
(.00189)
(.00047)
(.99799)
.99799
No
Spaceport SystemsProcessing Model
May 28, 2000
Model Outputs- Expected Flight Rate- Facility & Flight H/W Utilization %
Model Inputs- Historical data for: -- Processing flows in OPF, VAB etc. -- Launch Day results -- Landings at KSC or DFRC-QRAS, PRA etc. for flight events
(.00142)
(.00943)
(.00207)
Yes
RSRM / SRBDisassembly &
Inspection (Hangar AF)
SSMETurnaround
(Engine Shop)
OMS PodsTurnaround
(HMF)
Rail RSRMSegments to Utah
ET Check-out(VAB)
SRB / SRMStacking (VAB)
ET Mate &Close-out (VAB)
ETManufacturing
DFRCChosen (.1)
KSCChosen (.9)
Legend:Core
Model
Phase-B
Phase-A
Start ofGround
Ops Flow
FlightEvent
IntactAbort
(.00566)
SRBRetrieval
ET Transportto KSC
OMS PodsOMDP (HMF)
MLP (Pad)Post Launch Ops
MLPPark Site Ops
MLP (VAB)Stacking Preps
RSRM SegmentTurnaround (UTAH)
Aft BoosterBuildup (RPSF)
Aft SkirtTurnaround (ARF)
Rail RSRMSegments to KSC
Fwd AssyBuildup (ARF)
Offload & SegmentInspection (RPSF)
Segment Storagein Surge (RPSF)
(.00201)
(.00201)
phaseb.vsd
Fwd SkirtTurnaround (ARF)
FrustumTurnaround (ARF)
Shuttle Processing Simulation, Represented as a Diagram, by Grant Cates Ph.D, and Maryin Steele, Ph.D, circa 2004http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/Shuttle-Ops_main.htm
Models & Simulations as Software Tools
• Any M&S description, or layout, turned into math, and the logic of if’s and then’s, and made flexible to handle the exploration of combinations of inputs not known early on, can get very complex, very fast.
8A NASA Budget Model (some features blocked / not shown)
http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/ezNASA_Model.htm
Models & Simulations as Software Tools
• Example Simulation – data aspect.• The schematic or idea translated into math, data-bases, logic and structure
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From the NASA KSC Earth-to-Orbit Supply Chain Simulation Projecthttp://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/E2O_supply_chain_main.htm
Visualizing
• Data about what we want to build in the future goes in many directions-• To actually visualize the things using 3D virtual models• As shown previously - to understand the processes, timing and inter-actions
associated with the things and their planned facilities – simulation• As shown previously - to analyze the effort the things will require, the labor,
processes, practices, costs and resources to prepare, launch and fly these launchers and spacecraft
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From the Delmia Corp. flyer about the use of 3D Visualization at KSChttp://www.3ds.com/fileadmin/COMPANY/CUSTOMER-STORIES/PDF/NASA-flyer-Eng-lowres.pdf
The Mathematical – Critical Preparation in an Education Path for M&S
• You can only get there from here – from the math & science that is…
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$-
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
$24
$28
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
Cross Agency Support
Science
Aeronautics
Space Systems Tech. (Basic R&D)
ISS (incl. 'cargo crew services')
Space Flight Support (J SC, KSC)
Shuttle
HSF Total Remainder (Top-line minus CAS,Sci, Aero, Basic SS R&D, Mission CentricR&D, ISS, STS, SFS)
$-
$4
$8
$12
$16
$20
$24
$28
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
Cross Agency Support
Science
Aeronautics
Space Systems Tech. (Basic R&D)
ISS (incl. 'cargo crew services')
Space Flight Support (J SC, KSC)
Shuttle
HSF Total Remainder (Top-line minus CAS,Sci, Aero, Basic SS R&D, Mission CentricR&D, ISS, STS, SFS)
Cross Agency Support (also includes Center Management & Operations)
Constellation (to early 2011)
Shuttle (to ~mid 2011)
Science Launches (prices=costs)
Falcon 9’s & Taurus 2’s to ISS, Cargo
TBD Launch Vehicle $ to deliver Crew to ISS
Launch Services Program
That which remains: Including “Space Flight Support” at JSC and KSC.
Billions
ezNASA_Budget_Model
Ogive Panel 1 Ogive Panel 3 C-Channel Panel 2 C-Channel Panel 4Ideally-all such models, simulations, data and their tools will speak to each other more fully as these capabilities mature.
There are many challenges ahead in the world of modeling & simulation.
In Closing
“How can it be that mathematics, being after all a product of human thought independent of experience, is so admirably adapted to the objects of reality?” - Albert Einstein
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More information about some KSC models & simulations at:
http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/models_main.htm
http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/simulations_main.htm
http://www.industryweek.com/articles/nasas_kennedy_space_center_visualizing_the_possibilities_23701.aspx