Modeling of Urban Expansion of Greater Hyderabad

Metropolitan Region in India – Scenarios for 2030

Objectives

Development of a spatially explicit urbanization model

- based on socio-economic & topographical characteristics.

Model the spread of urbanization in a fast growing city like Hyderabad

Based on current infrastructure Based on existing Land use Based on population distribution Based on economy

Scope

Model is based on AGENT LUC (‘Anthropogenically Engineered Transformations of Land Use and Land Cover’ )

Captures urban process

Simulates the changes in urban land use patterns.

The major outcomes are urban land use and population growth.

Statistical Model

GDP estimates Population Model

Migration Model

Aggregate growth

Spatial Model

Land use and Land Cover model

Physical infrastructure

Resource availability

Soil characteristics

Elevation

Land use changes

Population distribution

Behavioral Model

Intra urbanRural to rural

Rural to urban

Perception about wealthSocial infrastructure

AGENT LUC Model

Macroscopic Statistical model(Economy, population etc)

Spatial Model(Land use, population

Distribution etc)

Behavioral model (Perception of wealth

and well being)

GIS based Land Use Model and Analysis

Factors Driving Urbanization Population

Natural growth Migration

Economy Service sector – pull Rural economy -

push Infrastructure

Attracting force Limiting force

Land use

Perception&&

Policy

Hyderabad

Rapid growth in population

– almost 30% increase from 2001

Capital of Andhra Pradesh

- state was predominantly agri based

IT exports

- Rs 22 crore in 1995 >> Rs 20000 crore now

Scenarios of Simulation

GDP SRES A1 SRES B2

Population Growth Rate

National population Growth rate of India

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

UN Projected growth Rate for Hyderabad Urban

Agglomeration

Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Comparison - 2005Scenario 1

Scenario 4Scenario 3

Scenario 2

High GDP

Moderate Population growth

Moderate Population growth

High GDP Lower GDP

High Population growth

High Population growth

Lower GDP

Comparison - 2030Scenario 1

High GDP

Moderate Population growth

Scenario 2

Lower GDP

Moderate Population growth

High Population growth

High GDP

Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Lower GDP

High Population growth

Validation *Population in Millions Area in Sq KM

Year Population as per Census

CEISIN Estimate for population

Scenario1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Population Area Population Area Population Area Population Area

1995 NA 15.74 15.11 541 15.26 523 15.11 518 15.26 537

2000-01 16.62 NA 15.75 615 16.16 566 15.75 565 16.16 583

2005 NA 17.38 16.39 694 16.84 647 16.39 613 16.84 650

Urban area in 2005 was 714 sq km (source NRSC)

Population Comparison

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Scenario 1 and 2 Urban population

Scenario 1 Urban Population Scenario 2Urban Population % Urban Scenario 1 % Urban Scenario 2

Year

Po

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Population Comparison

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20303000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Scenario 3 and 4 Urban population

Scenario 3 Urban Population Scenario 4 Urban Population % Urban Scenario 3 % Urban Scenario 4

Year

Po

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Urb

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Conclusion

The temporal outcome of this research provides policy makers with scenarios that can be employed in effective planning of infrastructure.

The land use in Urban areas changes with changes in GDP and infrastructure.

Future Work

Simulate the effect of Mass transport corridors like Metro rail on Urban land use and Population Distribution

Sharing short-medium-long term action plan with appropriate government departments

Expanding the above model using Urban modeling to fast growing cities like Hyderabad.