MODARIA II Working Group 1 Assessment and … Documents...WG1: Assessment and Decision Making for...
Transcript of MODARIA II Working Group 1 Assessment and … Documents...WG1: Assessment and Decision Making for...
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
TM2 Summary WG1: Assessment and Decision Making for NORM
and Nuclear Legacy Sites
Ming Zhu, Ph.D., PE, PMP U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Environmental Management
Presented to MODARIA II Second Technical Meeting
3 November 2017
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Participation in WG1 Breakout Sessions
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30-Oct-17 31-Oct-17 1-Nov-17 2-Nov-17Total 22 28 18 23In PersonIAEA 1 1 1Belgium 2 2 2 2Brazil 1 1 1 1Bulgaria 1 1Canada 2 1China 3 3 1 2Demark 1 1Gabon 1 1 1 1Ghana 1 1 1Japan 1 1Madagesc 1 1 1 1Russia 1 1 1 1Singapore 1Slovenia 2 2 2UK 1 2 1 2Ukraine 1 1 1 1USA 6 6 5 7Via WebEx 2Belgium 1Canada 1
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WG1 Participation in Plenary/Joint Sessions
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Plenary presentation by Eduardo Figeira da Silva (Brazil) on Uranium mining and legacy waste sites in Brazil; potential addition to the case studies, 31 Oct. 2017
Joint Session with WG3 and WG5 to discuss biota modeling for Case Studies, 31 Oct. 2017
RESRAD-Offsite Training by Charley Yu (USA), 1 Nov. 2017 Demonstration by Paul and Kelly Black (USA) of use of
Guided Interactive Statistical Decision Tools (GiSdT) for stakeholder-engaged structured decision-making at this Meeting, on Thursday, 3 Nov. 2017
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WG1 Presentations
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Ming Zhu (USA), Recap from MODARIA II WG1 IM1, 30 Oct. 2017
Hongtu Sun (China), NORM site in Yunan, China; potential addition to the case studies, 30 Oct. 2017
Adrian Punt (UK), Application of PC-CREAM for modelling uranium discharges to a small water course, 30 Oct. 2017
David Copplestone (UK), Integration/harmonization with ICRP Task Group 105, 30 Oct. 2017
Stephane Pepin (Belgium), Input Dataset for the Tesserderlo Test Case, 30 Oct. 2017
Daria Koliabina (Ukraine), Input Dataset for the Zapadnoe Test Case, 30 Oct. 2017
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WG1 Presentations (ctd)
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Jeff Whicker (USA), Modelling of Resuspension: Prediction and Validation of Radioactive Dust Emissions from Contaminated Areas, 31 Oct. 2017
Ming Zhu (USA), Update from P&RA CoP Technical Exchange Meeting, 1 Nov. 2017
Tamara Yankovich (IAEA), Update on MODARIA I WG1 Report, 1 Nov. 2017
Haruko Wainwright (USA), Modeling Support for Monitoring Strategies; In Situ Sensors and Climatic Controls, 2 Nov. 2017
Nasser Shubayr (USA), Study of Chemical and Radiation Risk Assessment Methods for the US EPA and the EA of the UK, 2 Nov. 2017
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Sites Selected for Case Studies
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Tessenderlo Phosphate Processing Site Belgium
Zapadnoe Tailings Site Ukraine
Former NORM Facility in São Paulo Brazil
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Tessenderlo (TCH) Phosphate Processing Site, Belgium
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Site locations: The facilities (orange); sludge basin (dark blue); waste water buffer basin (light blue); landfill (green); out of operation (dashed); discharge points to the rivers (yellow)
Sludge pond at the Kepkensberg site
Ra-226 contamination in the Winterbeek River
TCH Phosphate Processing Facility
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Tessenderlo Site Case Study Problem definition, Scenario description, and Input dataset (25 Oct. 2017) Scenario 1. Residual contamination in the flood zone of the Winterbeek River Scenario 2. Impact of the Kepkensberg disposal facility: a. “Normal” Evolution;
b. Intrusion Review geochemical conditions for parameter selection (15 Jan. 2018) RESRAD and NORMALYSA models for all scenarios: Runs complete; investigating
differences Improved model-model comparison
Task 1: Model set up and initial runs for Scenario 2.a (15 Jan. 2018) GOLDSIM; DCC Calculator Task 2: Model-model comparison (TBD before IM2)
Model-data comparison (TBD at IM2) Radionuclide transport in the Winterbeek River
Task 1: Model set up, input parameters, initial runs (15 Jan. 2018) PC CREAM adaptation and application; Comparison to NORMALYSA
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Tessenderlo Site Case Study
Biosphere exposure assessment for Winterbeek Task 1: Model set up, input parameters, initial runs BIOSPHERE (15 Feb. 2018) GOLDSIM (15 Feb. 2018) NORMALYSA RESRAD
• Evaluate possibility for demonstrating the use of GiSdT for different risk drivers (Cd, radionuclides, etc) (15 Feb. 2018)
• Evaluate datasets for potential biota doses assessment (15 Dec. 2017)
• Evaluation of Cd vs. radionuclides for decision making (15 Dec. 2017)
• Monitoring strategy to help define end state (15 Feb. 2018)
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Zapadnoe Tailings Site, Ukraine
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Location of Zapadnoe tailings
Distribution of Rn-222 flux (mBq/m2/s) from the surface of Zapadnoe tailings in September 2009
Zapadnoe Tailings Site Ukraine
Pridneprovsky Uranium Legacy Site, Ukraine, where the Zapadnoe Tailings Site is located
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Zapadnoe Tailings Site Case Study
Problem description, Scenario description, and Input dataset(s) (30 Oct. 2017)
Scenario 1: Worker Exposure
Scenario 2: Radionuclide Transport in GW to the Konoplyanka River
Scenario 3: Transport to the Konoplyanka and Dniper Rivers
Review geochemical conditions for parameter selection (15 Jan. 2018)11
Additional transport modelling to compare to the MODARIA & NORMALYSA calculations for same initial conditions
Task 1: Model set up & initial runs for Scenario 2
NORMALYSA (Scenarios 1 & 2 Complete; Scenario 3, 15 Nov. 2017)
RESRAD (15 March 2018)
GOLDSIM (15 March 2018)
DCC Calculator (15 March 2018)
• Considerations of other risks induced by remediation (worker exposure, transportation, etc) (input to chapter 2) (15 April 2018)
• Radionuclide transport in the Konoplyanka River
Task 1: Model set up and initial runs (15 Jan. 2018)
PC CREAM adpation and application; Comparison to NORMALYSA
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• Biosphere exposure assessment for Konoplyanka River Task 1: Model set up & initial model runs NORMALYSA (30 Dec. 2017) BIOSPHERE (TBD) GOLDSIM (30 April 2018)
Framework for stakeholder engagement - Leveraging CIDER Task 1: General framework presentation (2 Nov. 2017)
• Evaluate datasets for potential biota doses assessment (30 Nov. 2017)
• Monitoring strategy to help define end state (15 Feb. 2018)
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Zapadnoe Tailings Site, Ukraine
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Former Tin Processing Facility, Brazil
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Site layoput
Storage facility
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Former Tin Processing Facility, Brazil
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Data collection (15 Nov. 2017) RESRAD Model setup (15 Dec. 2017) NORMALYSA (TBD)
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NORM Site, China
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Addition to WG1 Case Studies still under Consideration Decision expected by no later than May 2018
Coal mining and surrounding farmland
Tailing and paddy field
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MODARIA I WG1 Report
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Proposal under consideration to split the draft MODARIA I WG1 Report into 2 parts Part 1 on Decision-Aiding Theory and Framework to be
completed as MODARIA I publication Part 2 on examples of decision-aiding analyses to be
integrated into MODARIA II WG1 Report
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MODARIA II WG1 Interim Report TOC
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1 INTRODUCTION (Ming) 1.1 Purpose and Scope of the Report 1.2 Organization of the Report 2 RISK-INFORMED DECSION ANALYSIS FOR NORM AND LEGACY WASTE SITES 2.1 Current Practices of Risk Assessment And Decision Making For Environmental Remediation 2.1.1 LANL MDA B Remediation and Land Conveyance (Amanda, Jeff , 30 Dec. 2017) 2.2 Lessons Learned from Decision Making Process Related to Remediation and Closure of Uranium Mine at Žirovski vrh, Slovenia (Branko, Borut, Paul) (30 Dec. 2017) 2.3 General (Framework, objectives, uncertainties, sensitivity, flow diagram, monitoring, etc) (Simon, Alan, Paul, Amanda, Branko) (30 Dec. 2017) 2.4 Examples of Risk-Informed Decision Analyses 2.4.1 Beaverlodge Uranium Mill and Tailings Site Closure (Stacey, 30 Dec. 2017) 2.4.2 An Approach for Risk-Informed Decision Making with Stakeholder Engagement (Paul, Simon, Branko) (30 Dec. 2017) 3 Considerations for Radiological Impact Assessments and Decision Making for Legacy and NORM Sites 3.1 Modelling for Intended Use (screening – remediation/optimization ; elements on Conservatism-Realism / Simplification-Complexity) Diederik, Ming, Nasser, Amanda, Eduardo, Charley (Late Nov. 2017 Webinar to discuss contents & date) 3.2 The Kd Approach and Alternative Methods for Radiological Impact Assessments (as an example for sensitivity/uncertainty, check MODARIA I, Hanuko, Diederik, Eduardo, Talal) considering also TF, BCF (D 28 Feb. 2018) 3.3 Definition of End State (Hanuko, Stacey) (Contact Josh for LM statistics; sustainability) (15 Dec. 2017) (Potential overlap with Beaverlodge?) 4 TEST CASE 1: TESSENDERLO PHOSPHATE PROCESSING PLANT SITE, BELGIUM 4.1 Scenario Development and Justification (Stéphane) (Draft complete 31 Oct 2017)
4.1.1 Residual Contamination in Flood Zone of Stream 4.1.2 Waste Disposal at Kepkensberg 4.1.3 Radionuclide Transport in the Winterbeek River
4.2 Model Development and Analysis 4.2.1 PC CREAM
4.2.2 BIOSPHERE 4.2.3 NORMALYSA 4.2.4 RESRAD 4.2.5 GOLDSIM
4.3 Interpretation of Assessment Results 4.4 Decision Making 4.5 Demonstration of GiSDT? 5 TEST CASE 2: ZAPADNOE TAILINGS SITE, UKRAINE 5.1 Scenario Development and Justification (Daria) (Draft complete 31 Oct 2017)
5.1.1 Worker Exposure 5.1.2 Radionuclide Transport in GW to the Konoplyanka River 5.1.3 Transport to the Konoplyanka and Dniper Rivers
5.2 Model Development and Analysis 5.2.1 PC CREAM 5.2.2 NORMALYSA 5.2.3 RESRAD 5.2.4 GOLDSIM
5.3 Interpretation of Assessment Results 5.4 Decision Making 6 Summary APPENDIX A: SITE DESCRITION, SCENARIO DESCRIPTION, AND INPUT DATASET OF THE TESSENDERLO PHOSPHATE PROCESSING PLANT SITE CASE STUDY APPENDIX B: SITE DESCRITION, SCENARIO DESCRIPTION, AND INPUT DATASET OF THE ZAPADNOE TAILINGS SITE CASE STUDY
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PLANNED NEAR-TERM ACTIONS
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Distribution of Rn-222 flux (mBq/m2/s) from the surface of Zapadnoe tailings in September 2009
NRPA Lillehammer presentation on end-state (Adrian Punt): Nov. 2017
WG1 WebEx Meeting to discuss status & update plans: Late Nov. 2017
CIDER Technical Meeting: Feb. 2018 (Paul Black) Draft Sections of WG1 Interim Report for internal review:
March 2018 WM2018 Symposium in Phoenix: March 2018 (WG1
Overview by Ming Zhu & Tamara Yankovich; Panel and oral presentations on various topics by Ming Zhu, Tamara Yankovich, Paul Black, Amanda Anderson, Haruko Wainwright, and Stuart Walker)
RESRAD Training course at ANL: April 2018 (Charley Yu)
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Next Meeting
JSI, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 21-25 May 2018 (with Field Trip to )
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Thank you for your participation!