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Mobility, our interconnected world, and ITSA network perspective on the future of transportZoltan Maklary, Principal & Operations Manager, Advisian

We’ve created a remarkable, complex and highly interdependent world.

We’re more reliant on each other globally than at any other time in the history of mankind.

We’re free to travel to 95% of the world in around 24 hours or less. Mobility is at the heart of our lives and economies, and it’s changing with technology - Intelligent Transport Systems is a key enabler.

The evolution of mobility

The world’s population in cities today

500 cities have 1 million people or more. This growth started 250 years ago, triggered by the

industrial revolution (steam power).

3%

1800 2016

+50%

A transport hierarchy has formed, comprising:

Cars that provide point-to-point travel at an individual level.

Rail that provides mass transit between key destinations.

Light rail and buses that service the journeys in between.

Currently coal and oil drives mobility

When we think of transport challenges, we generally think in terms of modes instead of journeys (e.g. very fast rail, light rail, bus rapid transit etc.)

We need to move from thinking about vehicles and modes, to end-to-end journeys for people and business.

The future of mobility

The mobility challenge is big and it’s growing

3.5 billion people currently live in cities, and will increase to 7 billion people by 2050.

1.2 million people are moving into cities each week.

The number of cars on the road will double

by 2050, even accounting for new technologies.

By 2050 there will be 600% more people on the move every day.

Where transport innovation was once driven by engines run on steam, coal and oil, it will now be driven by communications, data, and a deeper understanding of people’s needs.

Change has come to transport –

how will we respond…?

Intelligent Transport Systems

(ITS)

What is ITS?

Vehicles

Components of integrated

ITS

User related

Co-operative Road and road-side

Back office Industry and freight

Payment

i

ITS is moving from stand-alone systems to being integrated and connected; from technology to an enabler. ITS is mode agnostic, and all

about moving people and goods. ITS covers a broad spectrum, from traffic lights to smart motorways to Cooperative ITS, Autonomous Vehicles,

Payment Systems and the Internet of Things.

Improving network planning

How does ITS impact the way we perceive and plan transport networks?

Infrastructure

First and foremost, new technologies will run on old infrastructure – arterial roads, motorways, and railways will still be required. The challenge will be to increase operating capacity and efficiency without building more infrastructure.

We must also consider how to future proof new infrastructure to accommodate things like Cooperative ITS, Autonomous Vehicles and mode agnostic (intelligent) mobility.

Perspective

We need to understand how the network is used and change our perspective from vehicles to people.

Data will provide us an increasingly detailed understanding of origins and destinations, allowing us to consider how trips, people and business needs can be efficiently serviced.

Outcome

Mobility will become more dense, with a wider range of transport options and a blurring of the lines between public and private.

We can see this through emerging technologies such as Bridj and Simply Connect. They’re painting a picture of how future public transport/mobility networks may be responsive and adaptive, optimising services to suit customers at any given point in time.

Improving network performance

How can ITS help improve the way we use networks to realise more capacity and better respond to

a people’s and business’ needs?

Responsive management

New and adaptive versions of traffic signal management systems are already being implemented to be responsive to public transport scheduling and emergency vehicle access.

In the future, with connected cars, traffic will also be able to be re-routed in response to emergencies.

New data

Companies like Waze are using crowdsourcing to build a dynamic picture of network performance.

This concept was picked up by the City of Boston, who launched a mobile phone app called ‘StreetBump’ to monitor car travel and automatically report pot holes.

Demand-based pricing

Surge pricing from companies like Uber is familiar, and its application is widening. San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, through SFPark, is trialling an equivalent concept to manage the city’s on-street parking, adjusting price in response to demand.

The bike-share system, ‘BIKETOWN’, in Portland will do the same for managing bike stock, negating the need to truck bikes from less popular to popular locations. Ultimately, it will be a way to send price signals to road users to better manage peak congestion - something Oregon, London, Virginia and many other places are doing through distance and congestion based tolling.

Improving network experience

How can the transport network be more flexible, adaptive, and easy to use?

Merging public and private data

Integrated journey planners that tailor transport options across all sectors based on time, cost, and environmental preferences are now available.

Qixxit, developed by a subsidiary of rail operator Deutsche Bahn AG, is one of the most compelling. It merges car rentals, car pooling, taxis, public transport, and airlines into a single (and integrated) service in which users can plan and pay for their trips. The concept is ‘one ticket for everything’.

Smart Cities

The US Department of Transportation launched the Smart Cities initiative, offering $50 million for the city that put forward the most compelling proposal to “fully integrate innovative technologies into their transportation network”.

Similar to Qixxit, cities such as Portland, Kansas, and San Francisco have proposed visions where the best of the private sector’s innovations are embedded into the public transport network.

Mobility as a Service

The ultimate goal is to fully break down the barriers between types of mobility.

Gothenburg in Sweden created an experiment dubbed UbiGo for ‘subscription mobility’, managing all transport services through a single app and payment.

There are a number of start ups now trying to take this idea worldwide.

The key questions that emerge from these considerations and examples are:

Where does government’s role in the future of transport start and stop? As a service provider or marketplace regulator? Is it up to the private sector to innovate, or the government to address market failures?

How to manage liability when the sharing economy is merged with the traditional transport economy?

How can accumulated data be integrated across government and packaged for public release?

How to balance privacy with a user-centred experience?

How to send the right price signals while addressing equity of access?

Mobility challenges and barriers

1.

2.

3.

4.5.

Ultimately, we cannot say what the future will look like so it’s up to all

of us to keep an open mind.

Visit our website: http://www.advisian.com/our-sectors/transport

Contact: Zoltan MaklaryPrincipal & Operations ManagerE: zoltan.maklary@advisian.com

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