Mobileye Project
1
KEY p-AEB: Pedestrian Automatic Emergency Braking v-AEB: Vehicle Automatic Emergency Braking ACC: Adaptive Cruise Control AHC: Adaptive High Beam Control CWAB: Collision Warning Auto Brake DAC: Driver Alert Control DNN: Deep Neural Network FCW: Forward Collision Warning FSPL: Free Space thru Pixel Labeling HMW: Headway Monitoring and Warning HPP: Holistic Path Prediction IHC: Intelligent High Beam Control LDW: Lane Departure Warning LKA: Lane Keeping Assistant LKS: Lane Keeping and Support PCW: Pedestrian Collision Warning PD: Pedestrian Detection PPHC: Path Planning using Holistic Cues SLI: Speed Limit Indicator TJA: Traffic Jam Assist TSR: Traffic Sign Recognition VD: Vehicle Detection Fusion Multiple Cameras Single Monocular Camera REM Autonomous driving $120 $180 $240 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $39 $22 $18 $13 $195 $117 $57 $25 $7 $5 $6 $3 Estimated NRE EyeQ Aftermarket Total Revenue Overview Founded in 1999, Mobileye is a 700+ person technology company based in Israel that develops ADAS solutions. The company claims three competitive strengths: 1) Vision processing software algorithms based on deep learning which allow series of camera only ADAS features 2) IC design competencies of low power / low cost vector accelerators that are an order of magnitude more efficient than the competition 3) Millions of “road experience miles”, translating to a large validation dataset Mobileye has established a firm position in the $4.5B Safety Rating Regulation Market by introducing features identified by NCAPs to achieve 5 star safety rating. Mobileye is “fabless” working with STMicroelectronics to deploy EyeQ. The cycle time for release of new hardware matches industries natural cycle time for evolving platform elements (3-4 years). Tier1s serve as the channel to OEMs, though they create demand pull by working closely with the OEMs. Products EyeQ Vision Processing Platform Family of automotive grade low power chips which support computationally intensive vision applications. The customer may select a bundle (2-3) of ADAS features. Each generation has improved performance by 6-8X. Series 5/6 Aftermarket Unit A $1,000 product providing FWC, PCW, HMW, LDW, IHC, and SLI features. Has proven valuable for 1) OEM customer acquisition, allowing them to easily evaluate on their own cars, 2) building datasets to train models, and 3) dealings with governmental agencies. Road Experience Management (REM) A cloud based service, Delivering crowd sourced high def maps with 10cm accuracy. Primary principle is “Sparse 3D, Dense 1D” which caps network bandwidth requirement at 10 KB/Km. Strategy - Evolution to Autonomous Driving While the ultimate industry goal is to achieve Level5 fully autonomous driving functionality, the company divides the market into two camps: 1) those who are aiming to provide full functionality in some places (e.g. Google, Uber), and then aim to scaling everywhere, and 2) those who are targeting partial functionality everywhere (most of the car industry) and aim to incrementally enhance features to achieve full capabilities. Mobileye is in the latter camp, where ADAS features play an important role and can naturally address Autonomous Driving Level1, Level2, and eventually Level3 requirements. The company is placing bets in three technology areas -Sensing, Maps, and Driving Policy- to enable its evolution from ADAS to the Autonomous Driving. Sensing, helps build an environmental model and is a natural growth of ADAS. Planned capabilities that go beyond current ADAS requirements are determining path delimiters, and resolving drivable paths. EyeQ is also evolving from supporting a single camera to surround camera sensing capability (up to 8). Requirements for MAPs are met with REM (discussed above), which allows OEMs to leverage own assets (deployed vehicles) to supply a critical item needed to achieve full autonomy at a reasonable cost. OEMs can share mapping data, and Mobileye has commitments from 3 OEMs - GM, VW, and Nissan. Driving Policy is distinct from Sensing as follows. Sensing deals with the present, it’s mostly a single agent game and is predictable. The key technology is deep supervised learning. Driving Policy by contrast, involves planning for future events (e.g. what maneuvers to take to successfully exit the highway), it’s a multi-agent game (e.g. actions dependent on interpretation of pedestrian or other driver intents), and it’s not perfectly predictable. The key technology is Reinforcement learning. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2021 Roadmap Product Launches EyeQ1 Series 5 Aftermarket EyeQ2 EyeQ3 Series 6 Aftermarket REM EyeQ4 (Engr. Sample) EyeQ4 EyeQ5 (Engr. Sample) EyeQ5 8x Improvement Camera VGA (640 x 480) - 12bit 36 FPS Up to 2048x2048 Monochrome, Bayer, RGB, Y:Cb:Cr 50° Monocular Camera 1.3M imagery - 150°, 50°, 25° trifocal Front radar, 4x side radar, front/back Lidar 5 Cameras HD Camera 8 Cameras Software Feature Launches Two bundes - A: LDW, TSR, IHC - B: LDW, v-AEB Aftermarket - FWC - PCW - HMW - LDW Pedestrian Detection System (Industrial) LDW VD 2nd generation PD PCW IHC TSR LKA FCW HMW ACC TJA p/v AEB Partial breaking Road profile reconstruction Debris detection Multiple focal camera Aftermarket smartphone support Blind spot detection IHC, TSR, CC, Haptic alerts, break pre-light Traffic Light Detection (US) Night-time PD FSPL PPHC REM Prior to resolve ambiguity Improved drivable paths Object Detection Full Speed ACC LKA in construction zones 3D VD Automated parking OTA Updates Lidar, Radar, HD Camera Market Notable OEM Feature Introductions LDW CWAB DAC LDW AHC TSR p/v AEB partial breaking IFCW ACC TJA p/v AEB vAEB Full Breaking VW REM announcement at CES Animal Detection Additional New Launches LDW 5 new launches Two commercial launches autonomous 3x EyeQ3 configuration New Launch MSRP $K(mean/min) $53 $37 $80 $80 $34 $34 $30 $16 $33 $22 $38 $23 $23 $20 Models 5 10 13 19 34 54 109 160 215 247 Mobileye Brief Autopilot S80 V80 XC60 XC70 BMW7 S60 BMW1 BMW3 Volt Equinox Terrain Cad XTS Cad DTS i3 BMW1 BMW3 BMW5 BMW7 Super Cruise $45 Revenue(M) Net Income and Operating Profit AEB Level 1 Autonomous Driving Company swung to profitability in 2013, after shipping 2.6M cumulative units. The loss in 2014 was due to a $60M charge for options granted to founders, without which the profitability would have grown by 200% to $45M. Margins have been steady at 74%. Financials YOY growth (70%-100%) outpaces ADAS market growth (~30%). Revenue mix from aftermarket, EyeQ sales and NRE (comes to roughly $100Ks per account). Few hardware, but frequent software releases: successful “software wrapped around hardware” approach reflected by increasing ASP. Stark contrast to NVIDIA: Mobileye has achieved profitability after shipping 2.5M units, while NVIDIA still losing money after shipping 8M units. Camera only features have cut costs (parts, with no radar requirement, and integration), allowing penetration in non-luxury segments. Company has won 80% of all RFQs received in the past seven years. Currently company claims 22 OEM customers. Level 1 Autonomous Driving Without options charge Mobileye is successfully defending their ASP by adopting a “Software wrapped around Hardware” approach. ASP was flat in 2014 due to mix of app bundles in pipeline. Company forecasts ASP to multiply by up to 3x (to $132) in 2018 by adoption of autonomous driving features. Average Selling Price (ASP) and Units $19M $40M $81M $144M $241M Level 2? Autonomous Driving Level 3 Autonomous Driving Level 3 Autonomous Driving Level 5 Autonomous Driving Fully Autonomous (somewhere) 0 4.5 9 13.5 18 Safety Rating Regulation Autonomous Driving Trend Autonomous With REM Present Future $4.5B Addressable Market $15B March towards Autonomous Driving is expanding addressable market. REM will increase market size further by introducing services with recurring fees. 0 1666.667 3333.333 5000 $0 $35 $70 $105 $140 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 EyeQ ASP Target ASP Units (K) 290 668 1,303 2,656 4,445 $132 $35 $37 $44 $44 $44 -$3 $25 $53 $80 50% 58% 65% 73% 80% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Margin Operating Profit $78 -$15 $15 -$2 -$12 74% 74% 74% 70% 64% 64% 70% 74% 74% 74% Level 3 Autonomous Driving Level 2 Autonomous Driving [email protected] 8/8/16
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Transcript of Mobileye Project
KEYp-AEB: Pedestrian Automatic Emergency Brakingv-AEB: Vehicle Automatic Emergency BrakingACC: Adaptive Cruise Control AHC: Adaptive High Beam ControlCWAB: Collision Warning Auto Brake DAC: Driver Alert ControlDNN: Deep Neural NetworkFCW: Forward Collision Warning FSPL: Free Space thru Pixel LabelingHMW: Headway Monitoring and WarningHPP: Holistic Path PredictionIHC: Intelligent High Beam ControlLDW: Lane Departure Warning LKA: Lane Keeping AssistantLKS: Lane Keeping and SupportPCW: Pedestrian Collision WarningPD: Pedestrian Detection PPHC: Path Planning using Holistic CuesSLI: Speed Limit IndicatorTJA: Traffic Jam AssistTSR: Traffic Sign Recognition VD: Vehicle Detection Fusion Multiple Cameras
Single Monocular Camera REM
Autonomous driving
$0
$60
$120
$180
$240
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$39
$22
$18
$13
$195
$117
$57
$25$7$5$6$3
Estimated NREEyeQAftermarketTotal Revenue
Overview Founded in 1999, Mobileye is a 700+ person technology company based in Israel that develops ADAS solutions. The company claims three competitive strengths: 1) Vision processing software algorithms based on deep learning which allow series of camera
only ADAS features 2) IC design competencies of low power / low cost vector accelerators that are an order of
magnitude more efficient than the competition 3) Millions of “road experience miles”, translating to a large validation dataset
Mobileye has established a firm position in the $4.5B Safety Rating Regulation Market by introducing features identified by NCAPs to achieve 5 star safety rating.
Mobileye is “fabless” working with STMicroelectronics to deploy EyeQ. The cycle time for release of new hardware matches industries natural cycle time for evolving platform elements (3-4 years). Tier1s serve as the channel to OEMs, though they create demand pull by working closely with the OEMs.
Products EyeQ Vision Processing Platform Family of automotive grade low power chips which support computationally intensive vision applications. The customer may select a bundle (2-3) of ADAS features. Each generation has improved performance by 6-8X.
Series 5/6 Aftermarket Unit A $1,000 product providing FWC, PCW, HMW, LDW, IHC, and SLI features. Has proven valuable for 1) OEM customer acquisition, allowing them to easily evaluate on their own cars, 2) building datasets to train models, and 3) dealings with governmental agencies.
Road Experience Management (REM) A cloud based service, Delivering crowd sourced high def maps with 10cm accuracy. Primary principle is “Sparse 3D, Dense 1D” which caps network bandwidth requirement at 10 KB/Km.
Strategy - Evolution to Autonomous Driving While the ultimate industry goal is to achieve Level5 fully autonomous driving functionality, the company divides the market into two camps: 1) those who are aiming to provide full functionality in some places (e.g. Google, Uber), and then aim to scaling everywhere, and 2) those who are targeting partial functionality everywhere (most of the car industry) and aim to incrementally enhance features to achieve full capabilities.
Mobileye is in the latter camp, where ADAS features play an important role and can naturally address Autonomous Driving Level1, Level2, and eventually Level3 requirements. The company is placing bets in three technology areas -Sensing, Maps, and Driving Policy- to enable its evolution from ADAS to the Autonomous Driving.
Sensing, helps build an environmental model and is a natural growth of ADAS. Planned capabilities that go beyond current ADAS requirements are determining path delimiters, and resolving drivable paths. EyeQ is also evolving from supporting a single camera to surround camera sensing capability (up to 8).
Requirements for MAPs are met with REM (discussed above), which allows OEMs to leverage own assets (deployed vehicles) to supply a critical item needed to achieve full autonomy at a reasonable cost. OEMs can share mapping data, and Mobileye has commitments from 3 OEMs - GM, VW, and Nissan.
Driving Policy is distinct from Sensing as follows. Sensing deals with the present, it’s mostly a single agent game and is predictable. The key technology is deep supervised learning. Driving Policy by contrast, involves planning for future events (e.g. what maneuvers to take to successfully exit the highway), it’s a multi-agent game (e.g. actions dependent on interpretation of pedestrian or other driver intents), and it’s not perfectly predictable. The key technology is Reinforcement learning.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2021
RoadmapProduct Launches EyeQ1
Series 5 AftermarketEyeQ2 EyeQ3
Series 6 AftermarketREM
EyeQ4 (Engr. Sample) EyeQ4
EyeQ5 (Engr. Sample)EyeQ5
8x Improvement
Camera VGA (640 x 480) - 12bit36 FPS
Up to 2048x2048 Monochrome, Bayer, RGB,
Y:Cb:Cr
50° Monocular Camera1.3M imagery-
150°, 50°, 25° trifocalFront radar, 4x side radar, front/back Lidar
5 Cameras HD Camera8 Cameras
Software Feature Launches
Two bundes- A: LDW, TSR, IHC - B: LDW, v-AEB
Aftermarket - FWC- PCW- HMW- LDW
Pedestrian Detection System (Industrial)
LDW VD 2nd generation PD PCW
IHCTSR
LKAFCWHMW
ACC TJAp/v AEB Partial breaking
Road profile reconstruction Debris detection Multiple focal cameraAftermarketsmartphone supportBlind spot detectionIHC, TSR, CC, Haptic alerts, break pre-light
Traffic Light Detection (US)
Night-time PDFSPL PPHC
REM Prior to resolve ambiguity
Improved drivable paths
Object Detection Full Speed ACC
LKA in construction zones
3D VDAutomated parking
OTA Updates
Lidar, Radar,HD Camera
MarketNotable OEM Feature Introductions
LDW CWABDAC
LDWAHCTSR
p/v AEB partial breaking
IFCW ACCTJAp/v AEB
vAEB Full Breaking
VW REM announcement at CES
Animal Detection
Additional New Launches
LDW 5 new launches Two commercial launches autonomous 3x EyeQ3 configuration
New Launch MSRP $K(mean/min)
$53$37
$80$80
$34$34
$30$16
$33$22
$38$23
$23$20
Models 5 10 13 19 34 54 109 160 215 247
Mobileye Brief
Autopilot
S80 V80 XC60 XC70
BMW7 S60 BMW1 BMW3
Volt Equinox Terrain Cad XTS Cad DTS
i3
BMW1 BMW3 BMW5 BMW7
Super Cruise
$45
Revenue(M) Net Income and Operating Profit
AEB
Level 1 Autonomous Driving
Company swung to profitability in 2013, after shipping 2.6M cumulative units. The loss in 2014 was due to a $60M charge for options granted to founders, without which the profitability would have grown by 200% to $45M. Margins have been steady at 74%.
Financials
YOY growth (70%-100%) outpaces ADAS market growth (~30%). Revenue mix from aftermarket, EyeQ sales and NRE (comes to roughly $100Ks per account).
Few hardware, but frequent software releases: successful “software wrapped around hardware” approach reflected by increasing ASP. Stark contrast to NVIDIA: Mobileye has achieved profitability after shipping 2.5M units, while NVIDIA still losing money after shipping 8M units.
Camera only features have cut costs (parts, with no radar requirement, and integration), allowing penetration in non-luxury segments. Company has won 80% of all RFQs received in the past seven years. Currently company claims 22 OEM customers.
Mobileye Addressable Market ($B)
Level 1 Autonomous Driving
$4.5
$15
Without options charge
Mobileye is successfully defending their ASP by adopting a “Software wrapped around Hardware” approach. ASP was flat in 2014 due to mix of app bundles in pipeline. Company forecasts ASP to multiply by up to 3x (to $132) in 2018 by adoption of autonomous driving features.
Average Selling Price (ASP) and Units
$19M
$40M
$81M
$144M
$241M
Level 2? Autonomous Driving
Level 3 Autonomous Driving
Level 3 Autonomous Driving
Level 5 Autonomous Driving
Fully Autonomous (somewhere)
0
4.5
9
13.5
18
Safety Rating
Regulation
Autonomous Driving Trend
Autonomous With REM
Present Future
$4.5B
Addressable Market
$15B
March towards Autonomous Driving is expanding addressable market. REM will increase market size further by introducing services with recurring fees.
0
1666.667
3333.333
5000
$0
$35
$70
$105
$140
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EyeQ ASPTarget ASPUnits (K)
290668
1,303
2,656
4,445
$132
$35 $37$44 $44 $44
-$3
$25
$53
$80
50%
58%
65%
73%
80%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MarginOperating Profit
$78
-$15
$15
-$2
-$12
74%74%74%
70%
64%64%
70%
74% 74% 74%
Level 3 Autonomous Driving
Level 2 Autonomous Driving
[email protected] 8/8/16
