International Mobile Trends-MCDM COM588 Mobile Technology and Communication, Jan. 2010

- Bird-Vogel, Melissa- Liu, ZiWen- Hsu, Vera- Ye, Xiaoqi

Agenda Overview of Mobile Landscape Mobile “Infotainment” Categories:

Mobile TV/Video Mobile Music Mobile Text Messaging: SMS/MMS Mobile Social Networking

Global Trend Projections

Overview of Mobile Landscape in US and China

Country Number of mobile phones

Population % of mobile subscribers

Data Updated Date

China 703,000,000 1,335,330,000 52% Dec. 2008

USA 276,610,580 308,505,000 76% Nov. 2009

Factors of Mobile phone growth:

China: As of Nov, 2008, there were ~6.9 billion mobile subscribers in China. That number is growing 1.01%/month and 17.51%/year.

US: As of Nov 2009, there were over 234MM mobile subscribers in the United States. Mobile subscriptions are growing at a 2MM/year rate (230MM Nov 08 to 232MM Nov 09)

Mobile TV/Video

Mobile TV: United StatesDefinition:

Television service delivered to subscribers via mobile telecommunications networks

Standards: DVB-H MediaFlo ATSC

Delivery Methods: Broadcast  3G network

Challenges: Content format Network capacity Power consumption Cost Spectrum

Mobile TV: US (Con’d)

Mobile TV: US (Con’d)

• Mobile DTV• More free TV

channels/content

Mobile TV/Video: China • Delivery Mechanisms:

o 3G TD-SCDMA Networko 2.5G GSM Network

• Standard: o T-MMB by SACo CMMB by SARFT

• History – Present: o More than a million people in China watched the

Beijing Olympics via mobile phones

 User growth: Mobile TV/Video in China (unit: 10,000 people)

Revenue Growth: Mobile TV/Video in China (in 100M rmb)

Mobile TV/Video: China (cont’d)

• Challenges: o 3G network capacityo Price of the handsets and service/data fees o Content

• Future: o Estimated that by 2011, users of Mobile TV will surpass

100,000,000 in Chinao Buzz of 4G in China

Mobile Music

Mobile Music: United States• Definition: Ringtones, Ringback

tones, and personal music player for full track music

• Delivery Method: o Downloading straight from phoneo Sideloadingo Streaming live music

• Standard:o Using the mobile phone as an MP3

playero Streaming radio stations via

Pandora applicationo Ringtones and ringback tones

Leading company: iTunes

Mobile Music: United States (cont’d)

• History & Present:o North American (US+Canada) consumer spend increased 7% YOY

from ‘07 to ‘08, with a predicted 4% increase YOY from ‘08 to ‘09 and similarly from ‘09 to ’10, resulting in ~$2.2B total mobile music spend for 2010 The largest area of growth for N. America is full track music spend,

projected at $406.8MM for 2010

• Challenges: o Subscription-based services potentially will not provide sufficient

revenue model for artistso Lower-end handsets prevent direct downloads

• Where is it heading?o Increased Spend Forecast driven by full track music downloadso Viable alternatives to iTunes

Mobile Music: ChinaHistory and Present

• 1st Mp3 player in 2000; now, 55% mobile uses listen to music on mobile phone

• Pop music rating; Music club;•  

  

 

Mobile Music: (China Cont'd)Delivery methods:

o Streaming (Mobile music player; website streaming);o Standalone file download; USB file transfer

Challenges: Piracy; Profitable business modelFuture:

o Coloring Ring Back Tone;o CD sales will look into mobile platform as music market

SMS/MMS

SMS/MMS: United States• Definitions:

o SMS: “Short Message Service” – a text message addressed to a specific mobile phone number

o MMS: “Multimedia Messaging Service” - a descendant of SMS extends text messaging to include longer text, graphics, photos, audio clips, video clips,

etc

• Delivery Method: specifically-allocated spectrum for SMS delivery• History & present:

o Previously, users could not send SMS to users in other carrier networkso Quick Messaging and Smartphone Ownership increased from 12% in ‘08 to 20% in ’09o 80% SMS adoption in the U.S. (2009)

• Challenges: Could the spectrum allocated for SMS get too clogged just like the spectrum for data?

• Future:o Newer variants of SMS include Long (Concatenated) SMS, and EMSo With MMS, SMIL is new technology that’s emerging o SMS fundraising, such as Haiti

                     SMS/China• Delivery method

 •  History&Present:

 

692.1 billion text messages sent in 2007, for an average of 1.6 billion/day and a daily revenue of 160 million  yuan (around US $21 million)              

• Distinctive Use:Short codePre-written SMSAdvertisingRural education

Prevalence of mobile service

Why SMS is so popular in China?

Challenges:SMS/MMS: China

SMS/MMS: China• Future:

o Continues to be the most widely used mobile communication form

o Call for inserting more controls on spammers and ads

Mobile Social Networking

Mobile SNS: US

A groom used his mobile phone to update the relationship status on Facebook ／ Twitter during the wedding.

Mobile SNS: US (Con’d)

Mobile SNS: US (Con’d)• Delivery method: SMS; WAP;

m.dot; Java; Application.• Challenges:

o Exclusive design for mobile interface

o Promising Business models

Mobile SNS: US (Con’d)

Mobile Social Networking: China 

Definition/ Coverage:  

o Use mobile phone as communicate platform to access and communicate in Social networking

Delivery method: o WAP, SMS, Internet access o Manufacture on-deck application

History & present: o  Woku.com July. 2006o qq.com; renren.com, kaixin.com

Communication: o Mobile messaging; call; gift; follo

Mobile Social Networking: China

 Challenges: • Pornography

 Where it’s heading:

• Becomes main platform for Social Networking as it frees people from sitting in front of computer

• Bridge Digital Divide   

The Future

Mobile TV:  DTV (LG example); More free TV channels; Continued growth, enhanced by 4G – enhanced capacity and speed

Mobile Music: More availability to download full-track on mobile – Record companies will look to mobile as new platform for CD sales

SMS/MMS: ENS; SMIL

Social Networking: Geo-location Applications

Global Trend Projections

• The mobile phone will serve more and more as a new entertainment platform, including more music, more TV/video and more multimedia social media networking connections

• Mobile will bring more people who can’t afford personal computers to internet video and social networking

• The Mobile Phone will continue to become an increasingly important increased destination for infotainment 

Sources• Mobile TV in US. (All retrieved on Jan, 23, 2010)• Successful Mobile TV = 3G + Mobile Broadcasting• AT&T taps MediaFlo for mobile TV• Mobile TV, and data• 8 tech trends to watch this week at CES• 2010 Trends: Revolutionary Moves in Mobile TV Sports, Search• Does Mobile TV Have a Future?• FLO TV Digital Handheld/Mobile TV• Mobile TV: small screen, big challenge• Screen Digest Chart  • LG DTV PIC  •   • Mobile SNS in US. (All retrieved on Jan. 23, 2010)• SFN report: Mobile social networking a worldwide increasing trend. • 3 impressive Social Networking trends• Social Networking: Trends and Applications• Social Networking via Mobile Phones has Doubled in Last 6 months.• Mobile Trends 2020 • WSJ Story on SMS-Based Social Networking Platform SMSGupShup.• Lego Wedding Pic• M facebook pic• Opera MIni State of the Mobile Web, December 2009, January 26, 2010• Mobile Social Network users worldwide, 2007-2012, www.eMarketer.com

• Mobile Music and SMS:• comScoreSMS Access Trends, US © 2009• Strategy Analytics, Mobile Music: Global Market Forecast,

Jan 2009 • http://www.msnap.com/pages/stats• http://www.imediaconnection.com/content/2563.imc• http://psmsus.blogspot.com/2007/01/us-sms-penetration

-by-age-group.html• http://www.forrester.com/rb/Research/fastest-growing_

mobile_phone_category/q/id/55408/t/2• http://www.slideshare.net/michaeljbarber/mobile-market

ing-101-2248573

                       Sources

• China – mobile tv and music• China's CMMB Market Update: Exclusive Cooperation with TD Lags CMMB Market Growth

http://www.instat.com/catalog/mmcatalogue.asp?id=240• Nick Holand/Rescuing 3G with Mobile TV:       • http://servicesmobiles.typepad.com/services_mobiles/files/Whitepaper_MOBILETV.pdf • Successful Mobile TV = 3G + Mobile Broadcasting :• http://www.wirelessdesignasia.com/article-10223-successfulmobiletv3gmobilebroadcasting-Asia.html • STiMi: 

http://www.maverickchina.com/blog/dtv-iptv-and-mobile-tv/stimid-foreign-mobile-tv-companies-may-have-to-adapt-to-a-chinese-tech-standard.html 

• Great changes hapenning in China's mobile TV markets: http://www.prnasia.com/pr/09/10/09714611-1.html • Mobile TV and Beijing Olympics: http://wireless.people.com.cn/GB/7695115.html• Development of CMMB in China: http://www.chinavalue.net/Blog/BlogThread.aspx?EntryId=262927 • Mobile TV subscribers reaching 12,000,000 in China: http://news.iresearch.cn/charts/66743.shtml • Mobile TV revenues in China: http://news.iresearch.cn/charts/66585.shtml • History&Present&Future of Mobile TV in China: 

http://www.china.com.cn/city/zhuanti/07chuanmei/2007-12/19/content_9402431_2.htm • China's "American Idol" voters sent 271'000 SMS: http://www.textually.org/textually/archives/2005/05/008463.htm • New media practices in China: Mobile Phone: http://futuresoflearning.org/index.php/Firda_08/comments/

new_media_practices_in_china_mobile_phones/