Mobile Handset Population in Finland...

Mobile Handset Population in

Finland 2005-2011

MoMIE project report

May 15th, 2012

Network Economics

Research Group

Antti Riikonen

Timo Smura

MoMIE project: Comprehensive view

on mobile service usage

Source: Modified from Kivi, 2009

MoMIE RESEARCH:

• Surveys on handset panel

• Handset monitoring

• Mobile operator

accounting systems

• IP traffic measurements

• Web analytics

Handset population

data collection

Slide 2

• Mobile operators’ accounting systems

– Data from end of Q3, annually 2005–2011

– Feature information: GfK and public sources

• Represents 80-99% of devices in use in Finnish mobile networks (~98% in 2011)

– Data from DNA, Elisa, and TeliaSonera

– Includes devices observed at operators’ network

– Some error due to • No full data on Apple iPhone from 2005-2010 >> available in 2011

• Mobile subscriber churn during observation period

• Differences in operator-specific data sets

• Unidentified devices and missing feature-data of handset models

Data collection: handset population

Slide 3

• Size of the active device population depends on definition – Relative shares of handsets and data terminals based on MoMIE measurements

– Here, active device population assumed to equal the total number of subscriptions in Finland, as reported by the operators in public

• USB modems major data terminal category – large scale introduction during fall 2007

Growth in data terminals continues

Slide 4

* Other device types (e.g. desktop

phones) excluded from the rest

of the analysis. Unknown

devices included in estimation

of error margins.

*

**

** USB modems, data cards,

tablets, embedded data

modules

97 % 91 % 96 %

94 % 91 % 85 % 79 %

1 % 1 %

2 %

5 %

8 %

13 % 19 %

2 % 8 % 2 %

1 %

2 %

2 %

2 %

0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Nu

mb

er o

f d

evic

es

Mil

lio

ns

Other/Unknown

Data terminal

Handset

Fragmentation of handset population

Slide 5

• Early signs of slowdown

in fragmentation visible

– Amount of available models

has remained rather stable

since 2008

• Cumulative share of

– Top 1 model

• 14% (2005)

• 3% (2011)

– Top 10 models

• 50% (2005)

• 24% (2011)

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

1 10 100

Cu

mu

lati

ve s

ha

re o

f a

ll h

an

dse

ts

Top handset models (log)

Cumulative share of top handsets

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Top handset models in use in Finland

Slide 6

All mobile handsets: Smartphones:

Rank Model name Share of all

handsets

Change

from 2010

1 (2) Nokia 5230 2,7%

2 (9) Nokia C5-00 2,1%

3 (11) Apple iPhone 4 2,1% -

4 (15) Nokia E7-00 1,3%

5 (19) Nokia E52 1,2%

6 (21) Nokia C7-00 1,2%

7 (22) Nokia N8-00 1,2%

8 (25) Apple iPhone 3GS 1,0% -

9 (26) Nokia C6-00 0,9%

10 (27) Nokia E75 0,9%

Rank Model name Share of all

handsets

Change

from 2010

Packet

data*

1 Nokia 2760 2,8% Yes (2G)

2 Nokia 5230 2,7% Yes (3G)

3 Nokia 2730 Classic 2,7% Yes (3G)


5 Nokia 7230 2,6% Yes (3G)


7 Nokia 3710 Fold 2,3% Yes (3G)

8 Nokia 1100 2,2% No

9 Nokia C5-00 2,1% Yes (2G)


11 Apple iPhone 4 2,1% - ** Yes (3G)

12 Nokia C2-01 2,0% Yes (3G)

13 Nokia 2720 Fold 2,0% Yes (2G)

14 Samsung GT-S5230 1,3% Yes (2G)

15 Nokia E7-00 1,3% Yes (3G)

* All 2G devices have GPRS/EDGE capability,

all 3G devices have GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA capability

** No data on Apple iPhone in 2010

90% 88% 89% 88% 89% 86% 81%

2% 4% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10%

2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2%

5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%

3%

1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mobile handsets by manufacturer 2005-2011

Others

Apple

BenQ/Siemens

Sony/Ericsson

Samsung

Nokia

Nokia dominates handset population

Slide 7

* No full data on Apple 2007-2010

*

No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified manufacturers neglected from the analysis

• Others – HTC 1%

– ZTE 1%

• Samsung – Share growing

– > 2/3 of Samsung devices with proprietary Samsung OS

• Nokia – Decrease of 5% points

– Detailed analysis next

Mobile handsets by operating system

Slide 8

No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified operating systems neglected from the analysis

Others

Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle

Symbian S60 5. ed.

Symbian S60 3.ed

Symbian OS

Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)

Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.



Nokia Series 40

Nokia OS

Others


Symbian S60 5. ed.

Symbian S60 3.ed

Symbian OS





Nokia Series 40

Nokia OS

Others


Symbian S60 5. ed.

Symbian S60 3.ed

Symbian OS





Nokia Series 40

Nokia OS

Others


Symbian S60 5. ed.

Symbian S60 3.ed

Symbian OS





Nokia Series 40

Nokia OS

Others


Symbian S60 5. ed.

Symbian S60 3.ed

Symbian OS





Nokia Series 40

Nokia OS

Others


Symbian S60 5. ed.

Symbian S60 3.ed

Symbian OS





Nokia Series 40

Nokia OS

Others


Symbian S60 5. ed.

Symbian S60 3.ed

Symbian OS





Nokia Series 40

Nokia OS

Others


Symbian S60 5. ed.

Symbian S60 3.ed

Symbian OS





Nokia Series 40

Nokia OS

Others


Symbian S60 5. ed.

Symbian S60 3.ed

Symbian OS





Nokia Series 40

Nokia OS

• Others 2011:

– Mobile phones 10%

– Smartphones 9%

• Total shares 2011:

– Symbian 26%

– Series 40 45%

52%

39%

30% 23%

18% 13% 10%

32%

34%

31%

23%

15%

9%

6%

0%

2%

10%

14%

12%

8%

5%

0%

8%

21%

23%

20%

0%

7%

14%

2%

3%

3% 1% 1%

4%

9%

7%

5% 3%

2%

1%

8%

14% 17%

18%

13%

0% 1%

6%

7%

0%

4%

10% 11% 10% 12% 11% 13% 19%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

• Smartphone definition:

– Possibility to install native

applications

– e.g. Symbian, iOS, Android,

Windows Phone, Maemo,

MeeGo

• Share of smartphones

from 6% (’05) to 33% (’11)

– Smartphone share in sales

~56% in September 2011

Share of smartphones increasing

No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified operating systems neglected from the analysis

Note:

- No data on iOS from 2007-2010

- Nokia Windows Phone not yet

available in Finland during 2011

Slide 9

6%

13%

19% 20%

22%

26%

22%

4%

1%

5%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sh

are

ou

t o

f a

ll h

an

dse

ts

Shares of smarpthone operating systems

Others

iOS

Android

Symbian^3, Anna, Belle

Symbian 1.-5. ed.

Nokia Series 40 and Symbian diffusion: Substitution between OS generations

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sh

are

of

all

ha

nd

sets

Nokia Series 40 diffusion

Series 40, 1.-2. ed.

Series 40, 3. ed.

Series 40, 5. ed.

Series 40, 6. ed.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sh

are

of

all

ha

nd

sets

Symbian diffusion

S80 (+90,UIQ)

S60 1.-2. ed.

S60 3.ed

S60 5. ed.

^3 / Anna / Belle

Slide 10

• Many features close

to saturation

– Low-end

population limits

penetration

– Saturation level

for FM radio?

• Some features

spreading fast

– Inclusion to mid-

range?

Diffusion of radio interfaces stable

N = 4-6.5 Millions Upper and lower error margins presented with

Slide 11

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (1)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

B/W (MSTN)

CSTN TFT AMOLED / SUPER

AMOLED

Other DISP. TYPE

3x4 KEY QWERTY TOUCH

Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (2)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

• Diffusion of TFT slowed down

– Competition between high-end TFT and AMOLED displays

• Touch screen diffusing fast

– One of the fastest growing features ever

– Also in comparison to QWERTY

Display technologies and input

methods

Slide 12

N = 4-6.5 Millions

3x4 KEY = numeric keypad

QWERTY = QWERTY keyboard

TOUCH = Touch screen

• Mobile handset sales data from GfK – Used to calculate the

share of features in sales

• Unit replacement parameters calculated using sales and installed base data

• Forecast made for share of features in future sales

• Model calculates the share of features in base

Forecasting feature diffusion: Logic Combination of handset sales and installed base data

Slide 13

• Forecasts of feature shares in sales based on expert opinion

• Features diffuse in bundles – Certain features found

together in feature phones, other features in smartphones

• Diffusion of features relatively slow – WCDMA will reach

80% penetration in three years, WLAN in four

Forecasting feature diffusion: First results

Slide 14

Conclusions

• Typical handset manufactured by Nokia (81%)

– Other manufacturers begun to gain market share

• Smartphones (33%) and advanced features spread fast

– With increasing share of handsets possible to consume

advanced services & content

– Touch screen diffusing fast, substituting numeric keypad

• Forecasts predict stable growth of key features

Slide 15

Further information

• Contact: – Antti Riikonen, researcher

– Timo Smura, project manager – firstname.lastname (at) aalto.fi

• MoMIE project: – Modeling of Mobile Internet Ecosystem – http://momie.comnet.aalto.fi/

Slide 16

http://momie.comnet.aalto.fi/

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