MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker ...€¦ · Israel, Argentina, Spain, Czech...
Transcript of MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS Global COVID-19 Tracker ...€¦ · Israel, Argentina, Spain, Czech...
-
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19
Tracker – September 23
by Tom Lake
COVID-19 Trends and Developments
• The United States passed the grim milestone of 200,000 coronavirus-related fatalities
on September 22, more than 100,000 higher than the country with the second-
highest number of COVID-19 fatalities (India with 90,020). The United States now
accounts for 20.7% of total global COVID-19 fatalities and 21.8% of confirmed cases
despite its population only accounting for 4.3% of the world’s total. On September 22
the US’s average new case increase per day across the past week stood at 43,411,
the highest figure for a month.
• UK Prime Minsiter Boris Johnson announced a tightening of COVID-19 restrictions in
England on September 22 as the seven-day average increase in cases exceeded
4,000 per day for the first time since May 5, when the UK remained in its initial full
lockdown. The rise in cases has not yet corresponded to a major uptick in COVID-19
related fatalities, although the 37 fatalities due to the virus registered on September
22 was the highest 24-hour total since July 14.
• Russia records 6,109 new cases on September 22, its highest daily total since July
18. On September 22, President Vladimir Putin talked up Russia’s ‘Sputnik-V’
potential COVID-19 vaccine in his address to the UN General Assembly, offering it to
all UN workers worldwide once it has completed clinical trials.
Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)
Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 23. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Global
Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)
Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)
-
Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 0945BST September 23. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain,
Sweden and the UK not available.
Country Confirmed
Cases
New Cases in Past 24
Hrs
Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs
Mortality Rate (per
100 recorded
cases)
Rate of Increase in Cases
(7-day average)
Global 31,600,434 279,554 21,511,695 970,799 6,053 3.1 0.96%
Argentina 652,174 12,027 517,228 13,952 470 2.1 1.76%
Australia 26,972 30 24,414 859 5 3.2 0.10%
Belgium 105,226 1,834 N/A 9,955 5 9.5 1.50%
Brazil 4,591,364 33,324 4,016,831 138,105 833 3.0 0.67% Canada 148,855 1,272 128,890 9,286 7 6.2 0.79%
Chile 448,523 1,055 423,176 12,321 23 2.7 0.34% China 90,399 18 85,275 4,737 0 5.2 0.03%
Colombia 777,537 7,102 650,801 24,570 173 3.2 0.93%
France 507,150 10,299 94,961 31,426 80 6.2 2.27%
Germany 277,412 1,852 245,886 9,405 15 3.4 0.66% Hong Kong 5,046 8 N/A 103 0 2.0 0.20%
India 5,646,010 83,347 4,587,613 90,020 1,085 1.6 1.69% Iran 429,193 3,712 363,737 24,656 178 5.7 0.75%
Italy 300,897 1,391 219,670 35,738 14 11.9 0.53%
Japan 79,773 311 71,214 1,519 1 1.9 0.61%
Mexico 705,263 4,683 598,953 74,348 651 10.5 0.60%
Peru 768,895 0 629,094 31,369 0 4.1 0.67% Russia 1,111,157 6,109 914,923 19,575 155 1.8 0.54% Saudi Arabia 330,798 552 312,684 4,542 30 1.4 0.17%
Singapore 57,627 21 57,262 27 0 0.05 0.03%
South Africa 663,282 1,346 592,904 16,118 126 2.4 0.26%
South Korea 23,216 110 20,650 388 0 1.7 0.45%
Spain 682,267 10,799 N/A 30,904 241 4.5 1.79% Sweden 89,436 1,199 N/A 5,870 5 6.6 0.34%
UK 403,551 4,926 N/A 41,825 37 10.4 1.08% US 6,896,218 39,334 2,646,959 200,786 921 2.9 0.65%
-
Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)
The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from
COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective
country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each
country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Argentina
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Australia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Belgium
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Brazil
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Canada
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Chile
-
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
China
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Colombia
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
France
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Germany
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Hong Kong
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
India
-
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Iran
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Italy
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Japan
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Mexico
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Peru
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Russia
-
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Saudi Arabia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Singapore
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
South Africa
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
South Korea
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Spain
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
Sweden
-
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 23, and represents full-day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.
Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 22. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, US, Brazil, Argentina, Spain,
France, Colombia, Russia, UK, Iraq.
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
UK
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
22-Jun 22-Jul 22-Aug 22-Sep
US
-
Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 22. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Montenegro, Bahrain,
Israel, Argentina, Spain, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Kuwait, Moldova, Luxembourg. Countries with population below 100k
excluded.
Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of
State’s Population
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 22. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama,
Kuwait, Chile, Peru, Israel, Brazil, US, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
-
Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 22. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: India, US, Brazil Mexico,
Argentina, Spain, Iran, Colombia, Indonesia, Russia.
Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 22. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Barbados, Montenegro, Sri
Lanka, Argentina, Spain, Suriname, Bahamas, Mexico, Moldova, Paraguay. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
-
Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head
of State’s Population
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 22. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,
Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, UK, US, Italy. Countries with population below 100k excluded.