MLP Protocol REE ERSION › 2013 › 02 › ... · MLP Protocol 4020 MARLOWE HOUSTON, TEXAS 77005...

13
MLP PROTOCOL – WEEKLY SNAPSHOT MLP Protocol FREE VERSION WEEK 6 FEBRUARY 8, 2013

Transcript of MLP Protocol REE ERSION › 2013 › 02 › ... · MLP Protocol 4020 MARLOWE HOUSTON, TEXAS 77005...

Page 1: MLP Protocol REE ERSION › 2013 › 02 › ... · MLP Protocol 4020 MARLOWE HOUSTON, TEXAS 77005 OFFICE: 832.408.5571 MOBILE: 713.854.7485 EMAIL: ptrinder@mlpprotocol.com STOCKTWITS

MLP PROTOCOL – WEEKLY SNAPSHOT ™

MLP Protocol FREE VERSION

WEEK 6

FEBRUARY 8, 2013

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1 MLP Protocol

This presentation and the information contained herein, as well as any additional documents and explanations (together the “Presentation”), are for

information purposes only, and MLP Protocol (“MLPP”) is not soliciting any action based upon it. Opinions expressed herein are MLPP’s present opinions

only. This Presentation is based upon information that MLPP considers reliable, but MLPP does not represent, guarantee, or warrant, expressly or implicitly,

that the Presentation is accurate, complete, or suitable for any particular purpose, and it should not be relied upon as such. MLPP is not obliged to update or

periodically review the Presentation. MLPP accepts no liability with respect to, or arising directly or indirectly out of, the Presentation.

In addition, there can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this presentation will be realized. Opinions expressed herein are subject to

change without notice. You are advised to make an independent review and reach your own conclusions regarding the economic risks and benefits of any

investment and the legal, credit, tax, accounting and other aspects of such investment in relation to your particular circumstances. We may from time to time

have long or short positions in such securities or in options, futures, or other derivative instruments based thereon. All trade names, trade marks, service

marks, and logos herein are the property of their respective owners who retain all proprietary rights over their use. No part of this document may be

reproduced in any manner without written permission. © 2011-2013 All rights reserved.

Contact Information

Philip Trinder PRESIDENT MLP Protocol

4020 MARLOWE

HOUSTON, TEXAS 77005

OFFICE: 832.408.5571

MOBILE: 713.854.7485

EMAIL: [email protected]

STOCKTWITS / TWITTER: @MLP_Protocol

DISCLAIMER

W W W . M L P P R O T O C O L . C O M

RECENT ARTICLES AND BLOG POSTS

Northern Tier Energy (NTI) 4Q12 Distribution Estimate

CVR Refining is poised to ride the shale boom

CVR Partners, L.P. (UAN) 4Q12 Distribution

The Yield Curve Curve

New taxes, corporate dividends and MLPs

MLP IPO Review: Alon USA Partners, L.P. (“ALDW”)

The fiscal cliff’s shadow over Energy MLPs

ADDITIONAL MLP PROTOCOL RESOURCES

MLP Protocol Monthly Analytics

Company Presentation Links

ARTICLES ADDRESSING KEY CONCEPTS

Upstream MLP Protocol Rankings

Gathering and Processing MLP Protocol Rankings

MLPs and Relative Value Versus U.S. Treasuries

A Ranking Protocol for the MLP Space

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2 MLP Protocol

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

27 Jun 27 Jul 27 Aug 27 Sep 27 Oct 27 Nov 27 Dec 27 Jan

MLP Protocol Sprint Portfolio Alerian MLP Index S&P 500 Index

MLP Protocol Sprint Portfolio

IMPORTANT INFORMATION 6. Benchmark returns have been calculated by Covestor using a time-weighted calculation of daily index valuations and do not include cash, dividends and

earnings distributions, or transaction costs. More

7. Leverage indicates the level of margin utilized and is calculated by dividing gross exposure by portfolio net liquidation value.

8. All Model Manager information including personal data, profiles, strategies, monthly investment reports, and historical results outside of Covestor has

been provided by the Model Manager. Covestor makes no representation or warranty of its accuracy, completeness or relevance and it does not represent

the opinions of Covestor. Transaction history is available upon request. Model classifications (Approach, Asset Class) are provided by Covestor, and are

intended to serve as a general guide.

9. Top Replicable Holdings: These securities are currently held in the model manager’s brokerage account. Those marked as “Replicable Holdings” currently

pass Covestor's trading rules, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibility for replication may change over time. Actual client subscription holdings may

vary.

10. Latest Transactions: These transactions were executed in the model manager’s brokerage account. Those marked as “Replicable” () passed Covestor’s

trading rules and were eligible for replication at the time of execution, subject to individual client constraints. Eligibili ty for replication may change over time.

Actual client subscription trade activity may vary.

11. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index compiled by Standard & Poor’s Corp. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or

expenses. Individuals cannot invest directly in an Index. S&P 500 index data: S&P/Dow Jones Indices LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies

Copyright © 2013.

The MLP Protocol Sprint Portfolio’s strategy pursues a higher risk, higher potential total return using an opportunistic and concentrated approach

that leverages Master Limited Partnerships (“MLPs”) and related C-Corps. The model also invests in recent MLP IPOs.

Mirror my strategies

trade for trade

MLP Protocol Sprint 1.50% Subscription Fee p.a.

$30,000 Subscription Minimum

Invest like me at Covestor.com

All rights reserves © Covestor Ltd

Performance Detail Performance Inception Date June 27, 2012

as of February 07, 2013

Best

Performer Manager

Alerian

MLP

S&P

500

Past 30 days Manager 6.6% 4.0% 3.6%

Past 90 days Manager 14.2% 8.2% 9.4%

Since Inception Manager 37.2% 14.9% 13.3%

2013 (YTD) Manager 10.1% 10.0% 5.8%

Risk Metrics Since Inception

as of February 07, 2013

Best

Performer Manager

Alerian

MLP

S&P

500

Best 30 days Alerian MLP 12.3% 13.1% 7.5%

Worst 30 days S&P 500 (9.7%) (10.3%) (7.0%)

Volatility S&P 500 15.0% 12.7% 12.3%

Sharpe Ratio Manager 4.02 1.90 1.75

Sortino Ratio Manager 6.26 3.30 2.96

Maximum Drawdown S&P 500 (11.2%) (10.8%) (7.7%)

Value-at-Risk (95%, 1 week) S&P 500 (3.5%) (2.9%) (2.8%)

vs.

Alerian

MLP

vs. S&P

500

Information Ratio 3.08 3.05

Alpha 35.0% 38.1%

Beta 0.77 0.71

R-Squared 0.43 0.34

Ranked #1 out of 20 yield focused real money investment models for Performance vs. the S&P 500

Ranked in the Top 10 out of 137 total real money investment models for Performance vs. the S&P 500

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

2. Performance of the model manager’s account is calculated by Covestor on a daily time-weighted basis, including cash, dividends and earnings

distributions, and broker commissions. Manager returns include trades that fail Covestor's trading rules, do not reflect any Covestor suitability or risk score

restrictions and are exclusive of Covestor fees. More

3. Average subscription returns (“Avg Sub” or “Avg Client”) are calculated by Covestor and are composed of the average, daily, time weighted returns of all

active subscriptions to the underlying model. These daily average returns are then linked together for the timeframe requested. In addition, these returns

include cash, dividends and earnings distributions, brokerage commissions, Covestor advisory fees, and reflect individual client suitability and risk score

restrictions. More

4. All graph data is as of the end of day for the referenced period, unless otherwise specified. The subscription minimum is the minimum subscription

required to follow a particular model. The minimum amount is determined by Covestor, based on the characteristics of the underlying model. It should not be

considered as specific investment advice for your investment situation.

5. The performance charts are provided for informational purposes only, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. Variables

such as corporate actions or foreign exchange may affect daily performance displays. We rely on mathematical formulas, computer programs, and pricing

information from third-party vendors to provide these returns. Neither Covestor nor any of its data or content providers shall be liable for any errors in this

information or any actions taken by you in reliance upon this information.

Page 4: MLP Protocol REE ERSION › 2013 › 02 › ... · MLP Protocol 4020 MARLOWE HOUSTON, TEXAS 77005 OFFICE: 832.408.5571 MOBILE: 713.854.7485 EMAIL: ptrinder@mlpprotocol.com STOCKTWITS

3 MLP Protocol

What is the MLP Protocol?

MLP Protocol – Subscriber Analytics

The MLP Protocol includes analytical reports covering substantially all of the energy related Master Limited

Partnerships. The full Monthly Analytics reports include the following:

• Forward Yield After Tax (“FYAT”) projections, Valuation Coverage Ratios (“VCR”), FYATs / VCR and segment

rankings on all metrics (updated rankings in subscriber version of the Weekly Snapshot reports)

• Long term trend charts including the MLP index yield spread to treasury yields

• Distribution history chart showing years that each MLP has maintained or increased their distributions (color

coded by segment within the MLP coverage universe)

• Recent IPO scorecard, IPO forward calendar and IPO reviews

• Full peer group analysis for 12 comparable group segments with relative value analysis, and valuation and

leverage vs. yield charts, segment rankings by key metrics

• Distribution Coverage Ratio (“DCR”) studies for each segment comparing DCRs to historical distribution growth,

current yields, projected distribution growth and resulting 3 year forward yield after tax, maintenance capex,

Total Enterprise Valuation, and Distributable Cash Flow per L.P. unit

• DCR Watchlist for MLPs with a concerning Distribution Coverage Ratio trend, which may lead to distribution cuts

• Paid subscribers also receive the enhanced Weekly Snapshot reports

Allows comparison of the estimated minimum yield investors net across the broad MLP group and is based upon

the following assumptions for each MLP:

• Distribution growth rates

• Estimated “tax deferral” of the distributions

• Highest effective current individual tax rate of 43.4%

Forward Yield After Tax (“FYAT”)

Segment Comp Groups

Ke

y E

nerg

y T

ren

d D

ata

L

on

g T

erm

Tre

nd

s

Se

gm

en

t R

an

kin

gs

Relative valuation tools for investors to use to make more informed MLP investment decisions

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4 MLP Protocol

WE

EK

LY

SN

AP

SH

OT

Markets and Levels

• The NYMEX 3:2:1 Crack Spread is calculated using 3 barrels of crude at the WTI Crude Oil price, 2 barrels of gasoline at the

NY Harbor Gasoline price and 1 barrel of heating oil at the NY Harbor Heating Oil price.

– This is an indicative estimate only and individual refiners will have materially different effective crack spreads for their

operations due to varying crude input mixes, varying product slate outputs and cash price basis differentials for every single

input and output at their various locations

• The full Subscriber Version includes long term charts for all of the data sets in order to provide additional historical context.

– The rig count chart also breaks out the detail of crude oil versus natural gas drilling rigs

52 Weeks Ago FYE 2012 4 Weeks Ago Week Ago Current Change

2/10/12 12/31/12 1/11/13 2/1/13 2/8/13 1 Year YTD 1 Month 1 Week

MLP Index (AMZ) 397.7 385.1 413.7 431.2 425.7 7.0% 10.5% 2.9% (1.3%)

MLP Total Return Index (AMZX) 1,208.1 1,224.5 1,315.5 1,380.8 1,372.0 13.6% 12.0% 4.3% (0.6%)

S&P 500 1,342.6 1,426.2 1,472.1 1,513.2 1,517.9 13.1% 6.4% 3.1% 0.3%

10 Year Treasury Yield 1.96% 1.78% 1.89% 2.04% 1.99% 3 bps 21 bps 10 bps (5 bps)

20 Year Treasury Yield 2.75% 2.54% 2.65% 2.83% 2.79% 4 bps 25 bps 14 bps (4 bps)

Yield Curve Steepness (20 Year - 3 Month) 266 bps 249 bps 258 bps 277 bps 272 bps 6 bps 23 bps 14 bps (5 bps)

U.S. Total Rig Count 1,989 1,763 1,761 1,764 1,759 (11.6%) (0.2%) (0.1%) (0.3%)

Natural Gas $2.49 $3.35 $3.22 $3.34 $3.27 31.7% (2.3%) 1.5% (2.0%)

WTI Crude Oil ($ / Bbl) $98.51 $91.82 $93.36 $97.33 $95.72 (2.8%) 4.2% 2.5% (1.7%)

Brent Crude Oil ($ / Bbl) $117.21 $110.80 $112.37 $115.03 $118.90 1.4% 7.3% 5.8% 3.4%

Brent / WTI Differential ($ / Bbl) $18.70 $18.98 $19.01 $17.70 $23.18 24.0% 22.1% 21.9% 31.0%

NYMEX 3:2:1 Crack Spread ($ / Bbl) $29.91 $30.18 $28.10 $31.33 $35.26 17.9% 16.9% 25.5% 12.6%

Source: www.alerian.com, www.bakerhughes.com, www.treasury.gov, www.eia.gov, www.cmegroup.com. Historical commodity prices are spot prices at the futures contract delivery locations as per the EIA, most

recent data points are based on NYMEX futures prices due to the lag in EIA spot price reporting, so the data will always be slightly apples and oranges.

Page 6: MLP Protocol REE ERSION › 2013 › 02 › ... · MLP Protocol 4020 MARLOWE HOUSTON, TEXAS 77005 OFFICE: 832.408.5571 MOBILE: 713.854.7485 EMAIL: ptrinder@mlpprotocol.com STOCKTWITS

5 MLP Protocol

PD

H 3

3.3

%

BIP

14.7

%

AR

P 1

1.6

%

AT

LS

11.1

%

TR

GP

8.3

%

GL

P 7

.0%

G

SJK

5.7

%

SX

L 5

.3%

G

ML

P 5

.3%

EP

B 5.2

%

CL

MT

4.8

%

OIL

T 4

.0%

W

ES

4.0

%

TL

LP

3.8

%

PA

A 3

.7%

O

KS

3.6

%

AC

MP

3.4

%

MM

P 3

.1%

A

HG

P 2

.8%

K

MI 2.8

%

NG

L 2

.8%

G

EL

2.6

%

NG

LS

2.6

%

SP

H 2

.6%

R

RM

S 2

.5%

M

EM

P 2

.5%

S

ML

P 2

.5%

W

PZ

2.5

%

KM

P 2

.4%

B

KEP

2.2

%

AR

LP

2.1

%

MC

EP

2.1

%

PV

R 1

.9%

A

PL

1.8

%

HEP

1.6

%

ET

E 1.6

%

EP

D 1.5

%

DP

M 1

.5%

N

RG

M 1

.3%

V

NR

1.3

%

MW

E 1

.2%

B

BEP

1.1

%

SEP

1.0

%

EX

LP

1.0

%

LG

CY

0.9

%

LR

E 0

.5%

EV

EP

0.1

%

AM

ID 0

.0%

A

PU

0.0

%

CM

LP

0.0

%

CP

LP

0.0

%

CP

NO

0.0

%

CQ

P 0

.0%

D

KL

0.0

%

EEP

0.0

%

EQ

M 0

.0%

ER

OC

0.0

%

HC

LP

0.0

%

LG

P 0

.0%

L

INE 0

.0%

L

NC

O 0

.0%

M

ML

P 0

.0%

M

PL

X 0

.0%

N

KA

0.0

%

NM

M 0

.0%

N

RG

Y 0.0

%

NR

P 0

.0%

N

S 0

.0%

N

SH

0.0

%

PN

G 0

.0%

P

SE 0

.0%

Q

RE 0.0

%

RG

P 0

.0%

S

DL

P 0

.0%

S

GU

0.0

%

ST

ON

0.0

%

SX

E 0

.0%

T

CP

0.0

%

TG

P 0

.0%

T

LP

0.0

%

TO

O 0

.0%

W

GP

0.0

%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

RN

F 4

1.5

%

TR

GP

3

6.1

%

NG

L 3

2.1

%

TL

LP

30

.3%

S

XL

29

.8%

A

TL

S 2

5.0

%

MM

P 2

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%

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%

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B 2

2.0

%

KM

I 1

9.4

%

WE

S 1

8.2

%

OK

S 1

6.4

%

GM

LP

1

6.3

%

AH

GP

1

6.1

%

AC

MP

1

5.4

%

OIL

T 1

4.7

%

BIP

14

.7%

G

LP

1

4.0

%

NG

LS

1

2.9

%

AR

LP

1

1.9

%

KM

P 1

1.2

%

RR

MS

1

1.0

%

GE

L 1

0.2

%

PA

A 9

.8%

X

TX

I 9

.1%

W

PZ

8.5

%

GS

JK

8

.4%

M

WE

7.9

%

PV

R 7

.8%

T

GP

7

.1%

N

SH

6

.9%

M

EM

P 6

.8%

E

PD

6

.5%

H

EP

6

.2%

D

PM

6.2

%

AP

L 5

.5%

N

RG

M 5

.4%

L

INE

5

.1%

A

PU

4

.9%

E

RO

C 4

.8%

B

KE

P 4

.5%

B

BE

P 4

.4%

M

CE

P 4

.2%

S

EP

4.2

%

CM

LP

4.1

%

EX

LP

4

.1%

L

GC

Y

3.6

%

VN

R 3

.4%

X

TE

X 3

.1%

S

PH

2.6

%

QR

E 2

.6%

T

OO

2.5

%

EE

P 2

.1%

P

SE

2.0

%

ET

E 1

.6%

T

LP

1.6

%

TC

P 1

.3%

L

RE

1

.1%

M

ML

P 1

.0%

S

TO

N 0

.9%

N

MM

0.6

%

EV

EP

0

.5%

C

PN

O 0

.0%

P

NG

0

.0%

C

QP

0.0

%

SG

U 0

.0%

C

PL

P 0

.0%

N

RP

0

.0%

A

MID

0

.0%

N

S 0

.0%

R

GP

0

.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

RN

F (

11.8

%)

TN

H (

11.9

%)

UA

N (

61.3

%)

OX

F (

100.0

%)

(100%)

(75%)

(50%)

(25%)

0%

RN

O (

7.3

%)

TN

H (

19

.9%

)N

RG

Y

(58

.9%

)U

AN

(6

7.3

%)

OX

F (

10

0.0

%)

(100%)

(75%)

(50%)

(25%)

0%

WE

EK

LY

SN

AP

SH

OT

4Q 2012 Distributions

Quarter over Quarter Distribution Growth

Year Over Year Distribution Growth

SMLP is showing an increase of 2.5% quarter over quarter even though it’s paying its first public

distribution because the announced distribution is 2.5% above its Minimum Quarterly Distribution.

Page 7: MLP Protocol REE ERSION › 2013 › 02 › ... · MLP Protocol 4020 MARLOWE HOUSTON, TEXAS 77005 OFFICE: 832.408.5571 MOBILE: 713.854.7485 EMAIL: ptrinder@mlpprotocol.com STOCKTWITS

6 MLP Protocol

33

.8%

32

.7%

32

.3%

31

.7%

30

.9%

27

.8%

25

.5%

23

.5%

22

.2%

21

.2%

18

.9%

16

.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

CPLP MEMP ALDW NKA RNO USAC STON NGL EEP BWP UAN AHGP

Marine Upstream D & M T & S Coal G & P Other Propane Crude &Ref Prod

Pipes

Nat Gas &NGL

Pipes

VariableRate

General Partners

(“GP”)

21

.2%

22

.2%

27

.8%

31

.7%

32

.7%

23

.5%

33

.8%

30

.9%

16

.2%

18

.9%

32

.3%

25

.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

BWP EEP USAC NKA MEMP NGL CPLP RNO AHGP UAN ALDW STON

Nat Gas &NGL

Pipes

Crude &Ref Prod

Pipes

G & P T & S Upstream Propane Marine Coal General Partners

(“GP”)

VariableRate

D & M Other

WE

EK

LY

SN

AP

SH

OT

Top Ranked by 3 Year Forward Yield After Tax

ALL RANKINGS ARE BASED ON THE SUM OF PROJECTED 3 YEARS OF DISTRIBUTIONS/DIVIDENDS AFTER ADJUSTING FOR ESTIMATED TAXES WITHHELD AT THE

HIGHEST APPLICABLE RATE DIVIDED BY THE CURRENT UNIT OR STOCK PRICE. HIGHER YIELDS EQUATE TO HIGHER RISK. PLEASE RE-READ THE DISCLAIMER.

Top Ranked by Segment Highest to Lowest with Relative Risk

*Additional MLPs in the chart shown at higher risk levels may also have Distribution Coverage Ratios (DCRs) less than 1.0x.

Top Ranked Summary Table

Risky

Relative Risk Scale

DCR < 1.0x*

Very Risky

Extremely Risky

Top Rankings Current Yield 3YR FYAT

Nat Gas & NGL Pipes BWP 7.8% BWP 21.2%

Crude & Ref Prod Pipes NS 8.7% EEP 22.2%

Gath & Process (“G & P”) AMID 10.3% USAC 27.8%

Terminal & Storage (“T & S”) NKA 11.6% NKA 31.7%

Upstream QRE 11.5% MEMP 32.7%

Propane FGP 10.3% NGL 23.5%

Marine NMM 13.0% CPLP 33.8%

Coal RNO 12.5% RNO 30.9%

General Partners (“GP”) NSH 7.1% AHGP 16.2%

Variable Rate UAN 8.1% UAN 18.9%

Downstream & Marketing ALDW 13.8% ALDW 32.3%

Other HCLP 10.8% STON 25.5%

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7 MLP Protocol

Downstream & Marketing 500%

Crude & Refined Products Pipelines 488%

Propane 483%

General Partners 478%

Natural Gas & NGL Pipelines 478%

Terminaling & Storage 475%

Variable Rate 450%

Marine 450%

Other 450%

Gathering & Processing 441%

Upstream 362%

Coal 350%

Total 5,404%

61%39%

Current Price vs.

20 Day Moving Average1

80%

20%

Current Price vs.

50 Day Moving Average1

76%

24%

Current Price vs.

200 Day Moving Average1

78%

22%

20 Day Moving Average /

200 Day Moving Average1

66%34%

50 Day Moving Average /

200 Day Moving Average2

98%

2%

20 Day Moving Average /

50 Day Moving Average1

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

0%

1000%

2000%

3000%

4000%

5000%

6000%

2/17

/12

3/17

/12

4/17

/12

5/17

/12

6/17

/12

7/17

/12

8/17

/12

9/17

/12

10/1

7/12

11/1

7/12

12/1

7/12

1/17

/13

Total Moving Average Heat Index AMZ

350

365

380

395

410

425

440

0%

1000%

2000%

3000%

4000%

5000%

6000%

2/17

/12

3/17

/12

4/17

/12

5/17

/12

6/17

/12

7/17

/12

8/17

/12

9/17

/12

10/1

7/12

11/1

7/12

12/1

7/12

1/17

/13

Total Moving Average Heat Index AMZ

WE

EK

LY

SN

AP

SH

OT

Heat Index / Group Moving Averages

Key: % Above % Below

Moving Average Heat Index

NOT SCALE ADJUSTED AMZ SCALE ADJUSTED

(1) Included in the Moving Average Heat Index calculation, by segment. (2) NOT included in the Moving Average Heat Index calculations.

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8 MLP Protocol

NT

I 10

7%

EQ

M 7

4%

AL

DW

65%

MP

LX

56%

WG

P 5

6%

SU

SP

42%

SD

LP

30%

DK

L 2

8%

CV

RR

28%

SX

E 1

4%

SM

LP

9%

SX

CP

8%

LN

CO

5%

HC

LP

3%

LG

P 1

%

US

AC

(0%

)

NS

LP

(3%

)

PD

H (

5%)

28.7%

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

7/1/

11

7/22

/11

8/12

/11

9/2/

11

9/23

/11

10/1

4/1

1

11/4

/11

11/2

5/1

1

12/1

6/1

1

1/6/

12

1/27

/12

2/17

/12

3/9/

12

3/30

/12

4/20

/12

5/11

/12

6/1/

12

6/22

/12

7/13

/12

8/3/

12

8/24

/12

9/14

/12

10/5

/12

10/2

6/1

2

11/1

6/1

2

12/7

/12

12/2

8/1

2

1/18

/13

2/8/

13

Average 3YR FYAT STSPY SPY 3YR FYAT ST20YR UST 20Y UST 3YR FYAT

WG

P 1

.9%

MP

LX

3.1

%

EQ

M 3

.8%

SD

LP

5.4

%

DK

L 5

.6%

SU

SP

6.0

%

PD

H 6

.1%

SX

E 7

.0%

LN

CO

7.4

%

SM

LP

7.5

%

SX

CP

8.1

%

LG

P 8

.7%

US

AC

9.5

%

CV

RR

10.4

%

NS

LP

10.8

%

HC

LP

10.8

%

NT

I 11.4

%

AL

DW

13.8

%

7.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

WE

EK

LY

SN

AP

SH

OT

Forward Yield Summaries / MLP IPO Scorecard

3 Year Forward Yield After Tax (“FYAT”)

18

.3%

15

.6%

20

.1%

18

.2%

23

.6%

20

.4%

23

.6%

20

.4%

10

.0%

17

.1%

23

.9%

20

.2%

5.2

%

4.7

%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2/8/2013

NGas Pipe Crude Pipe G & P T & S Upstream Propane Marine

Coal GP Variable Rate D & M Other SPY 20Y UST

Segment Averages

Recent IPO Current Yields Price Performance Since IPO

Source: Company filings, press releases, presentations and internal estimates, Recent IPOs are defined as being public for less than 365 calendar days or the 10 most recent IPOs.

Page 10: MLP Protocol REE ERSION › 2013 › 02 › ... · MLP Protocol 4020 MARLOWE HOUSTON, TEXAS 77005 OFFICE: 832.408.5571 MOBILE: 713.854.7485 EMAIL: ptrinder@mlpprotocol.com STOCKTWITS

9 MLP Protocol

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1 Week and YTD Price Performance

1 Week Price Performance

Year to Date Price Performance

CE

P 3

1%

A

LD

W 1

2%

N

TI

12

%

CV

RR

10

%

CL

MT 9

%

XT

EX

7%

B

IP 6

%

OIL

T 5

%

GE

L 5

%

SU

SP

4%

TL

LP

4%

N

GL

S 4

%

GS

JK

3%

W

PZ

3%

D

KL

3%

S

XC

P 3

%

EQ

M 3

%

XT

XI

3%

E

XH

3%

N

GL

3%

S

PH

2%

T

CP

2%

T

GP

2%

P

NG

2%

F

UN

2%

W

ES

1%

P

DH

1%

C

QP

1%

B

PL

1%

N

RP

1%

M

WE

1%

G

ML

P 1

%

NR

GM

1%

W

GP

1%

L

GP

1%

P

AA

1

%

US

AC

1%

T

OO

1%

O

XF

1%

P

SE

1%

C

ML

P 0

%

TR

GP

0%

H

EP

0%

S

TO

N 0

%

SP

Y 0

%

KM

I 0%

T

LP

0%

B

WP

0%

AH

GP

0

%

FG

P 0

%

KM

R (

0%

)TN

H (

0%

)M

CE

P (

0%

)C

PN

O (

0%

)S

EP

(0

%)

CP

LP

(0%

)S

ML

P (

1%

)K

MP

(1%

)S

DL

P (1%

)D

PM

(1

%)

HC

LP

(1

%)

AR

LP

(1%

)AM

Z (1

%)

EE

Q (

1%

)S

XL

(1

%)

VN

R (1%

)E

EP

(1

%)

OK

S (

1%

)A

TL

S

(2%

)A

MID

(2

%)

ME

MP

(2

%)

EP

D (

2%

)B

KE

P (

2%

)U

AN

(2

%)

MM

LP

(2%

)E

TP

(2%

)E

PB

(2%

)G

LP

(2

%)

ER

OC

(2%

)L

RE

(2

%)

NS

(2

%)

LG

CY

(2

%)

NS

LP

(3%

)N

KA (

3%

)A

CM

P

(3%

)M

PL

X (

3%

)S

XE

(3

%)

RN

O (3%

)S

GU

(4

%)

EX

LP

(4%

)N

SH

(4%

)AR

P (

4%

)R

NF

(4%

)P

VR

(4

%)

AP

L (

4%

)N

RG

Y (

4%

)L

NC

O (

5%

)E

TE

(5

%)

AP

U (

5%

)R

GP

(5%

)M

MP

(5%

)L

INE

(5

%)

RR

MS

(5

%)

NM

M (

6%

)E

VE

P (

6%

)B

BE

P (

7%

)Q

RE

(8%

)

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

CE

P 3

8%

C

VR

R 2

8%

G

LP

25

%

CP

LP

24

%

XTE

X 2

3%

A

MID

23

%

CP

NO

22%

R

NF

22%

S

XL

21

%

XTX

I 2

1%

G

SJ

K 2

1%

C

ML

P 2

1%

S

TO

N 2

0%

B

KE

P 2

0%

M

CE

P 1

9%

G

EL

19%

P

DH

19%

N

RP

19%

N

S 1

8%

E

QM

17

%

PA

A

17

%

BP

L 1

7%

D

KL

17

%

HC

LP

16

%

FU

N 1

6%

S

US

P 1

6%

W

ES

16%

T

RG

P 1

5%

F

GP

15

%

CL

MT

15

%

WG

P 1

4%

T

NH

14

%

NT

I 1

4%

P

SE

13

%

MM

P 1

3%

E

XL

P 1

3%

S

GU

13%

B

IP 1

3%

E

XH

12

%

OIL

T 1

2%

N

SH

11

%

SD

LP

11

%

NK

A 1

1%

H

EP

11

%

CQ

P 1

1%

N

GL

S 1

1%

N

MM

11

%

EP

D 1

1%

K

MP

11

%

SE

P 1

1%

M

ML

P 1

1%

A

MZ

1

1%

M

PL

X 1

0%

B

WP

10

%

AL

DW

10%

E

PB

10%

S

ML

P 1

0%

M

WE

10

%

KM

R 9

%

AT

LS

9

%

AR

LP

9%

P

NG

9%

T

CP

9%

A

PU

9%

O

KS

8%

R

GP

8%

L

GP

8%

T

LP

8%

T

GP

8%

S

XC

P 8

%

AC

MP

8

%

ET

P 8

%

WP

Z 7

%

NR

GM

7%

B

BE

P 7

%

DP

M 7

%

ET

E 7

%

SP

H 7

%

SP

Y 7

%

VN

R 7

%

KM

I 6

%

TO

O 6

%

NR

GY 6

%

ER

OC

6%

A

HG

P

6%

N

GL

6%

L

NC

O 6

%

EE

P 6

%

UA

N 6

%

LIN

E 6

%

TL

LP

5%

R

NO

5%

L

GC

Y 4

%

EE

Q 4

%

AP

L 3

%

QR

E 2

%

LR

E 2

%

GM

LP

0%

U

SAC

(0

%)

ME

MP

(0

%)

RR

MS

(1

%)

EV

EP

(1%

)AR

P (

1%

)P

VR

(2%

)N

SL

P (

3%

)S

XE

(4

%)

OX

F (

16

%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Page 11: MLP Protocol REE ERSION › 2013 › 02 › ... · MLP Protocol 4020 MARLOWE HOUSTON, TEXAS 77005 OFFICE: 832.408.5571 MOBILE: 713.854.7485 EMAIL: ptrinder@mlpprotocol.com STOCKTWITS

10 MLP Protocol

NT

IR

NF

EX

HS

XL

GS

JK

CL

MT

AT

LS

GL

PC

PN

OA

CM

PP

DH

GE

LE

QM

TL

LP

FU

NO

ILT

AL

DW

TR

GP

XTX

IL

RE

NK

AM

MP

RR

MS

ET

EB

IPTN

HP

AA

UA

NH

EP

FG

PC

PL

PT

LP

CE

PA

HG

PX

TE

XE

PB

NG

LW

ES

NR

GY

NR

GM

CQ

PM

PL

XH

CL

PA

RL

PB

KE

PM

CE

PN

RP

SG

UN

GL

SC

ML

PP

NG

EV

EP

DK

LAM

IDS

TO

NE

XL

PN

SP

VR

SU

SP

VN

RB

BE

PN

MM

SE

PM

WE

DP

MN

SH

SP

HP

SE

KM

IK

MR

WG

PE

PD

SD

LP

AP

LK

MP

MM

LP

BP

LT

GP

RN

OM

EM

PL

GP

SM

LP

TC

PR

GP

QR

EA

PU

OK

SE

RO

CG

ML

PE

TP

WP

ZA

RP

BW

PT

OO

LIN

EL

GC

YE

EP

LN

CO

EE

QO

XF

SX

E

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

NT

IC

LM

TB

IPAL

DW

XTE

XS

EP

GE

LC

PL

PE

XH

PAA

EQ

MTL

LP

TR

GP

WE

SX

TX

IS

XL

HE

PP

NG

TL

PK

MR

OIL

TG

SJK

TG

PD

KL

SM

LP

KM

PATL

SB

WP

FU

NE

PD

CP

NO

ETP

OK

SM

ML

PN

RG

MAH

GP

PS

EK

MI

MC

EP

SU

SP

EP

BW

GP

SP

HM

WE

AC

MP

EE

PD

PM

NG

LS

LN

CO

ETE

SD

LP

TC

PM

MP

EX

LP

AP

UG

LP

PD

HM

PL

XR

NF

CM

LP

PV

RTO

OL

GP

VN

RS

TO

NN

KA

FG

PB

KE

PS

GU

RR

MS

RG

PS

XE

AP

LB

BE

PN

MM

CQ

PN

RP

NR

GY

ME

MP

LR

EU

AN

LIN

EB

PL

WP

ZN

SH

NG

LE

RO

CE

EQ

AR

LP

TN

HL

GC

YN

SG

ML

PE

VE

PQ

RE

AM

IDH

CL

PR

NO

AR

PC

EP

OX

F

(80%)

(70%)

(60%)

(50%)

(40%)

(30%)

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

WE

EK

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% Below 52 Week Highs and % Above 52 Week Lows

% Below 52 Week Highs

% Above 52 Week Lows

Positive number indicates close at a new high.

Negative number indicates close at a new low.

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Glossary and Assumptions

• Max GP IDR Tier – Maximum General Partner (“GP”) Incentive Distribution Right Tier, typically publicly traded Master Limited Partnerships (“MLPs”) will have

a General Partner that will receive an increasing share of distributable cash flow upon achieving certain levels of distributions to the Limited Partners up to a

maximum of 50%.

• Tax Form – Typically MLPs send annual K-1s which add complexity to individual tax returns and also can cause issues if MLPs are held in an IRA account

due to UBTI (“Unrelated Business Taxable Income”). If UBTI from MLPs exceeds $1,000 in an IRA then taxes should be paid out of the IRA.

• Est. Tax Deferral – Estimated Tax Deferral represents the amount of the expected distributions that will be treated as a return of capital and used to adjust

down the investment tax basis so not taxable until the unit holder sells the security.

• Next Dist – Next Distribution, either the most recently announced quarterly distribution or the last distribution until the next one is announced. For recent

IPOs the Next Dist is shown as the Minimum Quarterly Distribution (“MQD”) as per the prospectus; however, the first distribution will be pro-rated over the

period of the quarter that the MLP was public so it will be less than the amount shown in the charts.

• Current Yield AT – Estimated Current Yield After Tax, basically after taking into account the amount of distributions that are tax deferred and the effective

tax rate on the taxable portion of the distribution. Assumes non-tax deferred MLP distributions are taxed at the highest income tax rate of 35%. Deferred

portion of MLP distributions received will lower investor’s cost basis over time and result in “deferred tax recapture” upon sale of the MLP units.

• Historical Dist Growth – Historical Distribution Growth rates, QoQ is Quarter over Quarter, YoY is Year over Year, 3YR and 5YR are the 3 year and 5 year

compound annual growth rate (“CAGR”) in the distributions respectively, information will be rolled forward each quarter.

• U.S. 10 or 20 Year Treasury – 10 or 20 Year Treasury forward yields after tax assume a 35% tax rate over the projected periods, so the 3 Year Forward

Yield After Tax Undiscounted would be calculated as follows if the Current Treasury Yield was 3.00%: (3.00% x (1-.35 tax rate)) x 3 years = 5.85%.

• 3 YR / 5 YR FWD Dist Growth – 3 Year or 5 Year Forward Distribution Growth rate assumptions.

• 3 YR / 5 YR FYAT – 3 Year or 5 Year Forward Yield After Tax, the undiscounted sum of the projected quarterly distributions taking into account the projected

growth rate and also the estimated tax deferral divided by the current unit price.

• 3 YR / 5 YR FYAT / Beta – 3 Year or 5 Year Forward Yield After Tax divided by Beta, an attempt to utilize Beta to rank the MLPs by taking into account risk

as measured by Beta.

• 20 / 50 / 200 DMA – The 20 Day Moving Average, 50 Day Moving Average and 200 Day Moving Average.

• EV – Enterprise Value, sum of total equity market cap plus total debt less cash.

• EBITDA – Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization and other non-cash charges, generally interim period annualized except for

Propane segment which is trailing twelve months.

• ADJ EBITDA – Adjusted EBITDA, EBITDA less the cash distributions paid to the GP, effectively represents EBITDA available for the LP unit holders since

the EV is calculated using only the outstanding LP units and any related subordinated units and i-shares/units.

• TTM – Trailing Twelve Months, YTD – Year to Date, MRQ – Most Recent Quarter.

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• Distributable Cash Flow (“DCF”) – generally EBITDA less cash interest expense less maintenance capital expenditures less any cash taxes, represents the

amount of cash available to pay distributions.

• Dist Cov Ratio (“DCR”) – Distribution Coverage Ratio, Distributable Cash Flow divided by L.P. plus G.P. distributions, the higher the ratio the better, a ratio

below 1.00x means that the MLP is effectively paying some of the distribution using debt (although some MLPs like the Propane MLPs have substantial

seasonality of cash flows so in those cases the ratio is better suited to be viewed over a rolling four quarter period).

• Valuation Coverage Ratio (“VCR”) – (EV / ADJ EBITDA) / Distribution Coverage Ratio. The DCR is generally TTM DCR unless the MRQ DCR is less than

1.00x, if so then the VCR calculation uses the lower MRQ DCR.

• M Cap – Maintenance capital expenditures or sustaining capital expenditures as reported by the companies, generally the amount of capital required to

replace partially or fully depreciated/obsolete assets, maintain the existing operating capacity or operating income of an MLP’s assets (replace

reserves/production for Upstream MLPs), and extend the useful life of assets (routine equipment and pipeline maintenance).

• Price / DCF LP – Current price divided by the TTM Distributable Cash Flow per LP Unit, so total Distributable Cash Flow less the TTM distributions that the

General Partner receives.

• % GP Dist – % of total distributions that the General Partner receives, as the distributions increase over time the Incentive Distribution Rights (“IDRs”)

provide for more of the distributions to go to the General Partner.

• STSPY – Spread to S&P 500 dividend yield, however, calculated based on the 3 or 5 year estimated forward yield after tax for the S&P 500 using data from

SPY ETF as a proxy (assuming a 15% dividend tax rate and a 5% annual growth rate for SPY dividends), then in the chart it is compared to the 3 or 5 year

estimated forward yield after tax for the MLP group average to come up with the “spread.”

• Avg / SPY Ratio – 3 or 5 YR FWD Yield AT for the full MLP group divided by the 3 or 5 year forward dividend yield after tax for the SPY ETF.

• SEC PV10 – The present value of estimated future revenues to be generated from the production of proved reserves calculated in accordance with Securities

and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) guidelines, net of estimated lease operating expense, production taxes and future development costs, using price and

costs as of the date of estimation without future escalation, without giving effect to non-property related expenses such as general and administrative

expenses, debt service, depreciation, depletion and amortization, or Federal income taxes and discounted using an annual discount rate of 10%.

• PIPE – Private Investment in Public Equity.

• MMBOE / BOE / BCFE / MCFE – Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent, Barrels of Oil Equivalent, Billion cubic feet equivalent, Thousand cubic feet equivalent,

converted using a 6,000 cubic feet of natural gas to 1 barrel of oil ratio.

• Moving Average Heat Index – calculated by the sum of the percentages of five moving average metrics that are “Above,” i.e. if the current price is Above

the simple 20 day moving average, so maximum Heat Index is 500% and minimum Heat Index is 0%.

• AMZ – Alerian MLP index.

• Unit and share prices as of market close on the date shown on the cover.

Glossary and Assumptions