MLB: Advanced Cash Game Strategy
Transcript of MLB: Advanced Cash Game Strategy
Course 3: MLB Strategy
Advanced Cash Game Strategy
www.rotoql.com1
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Lesson Overview
Desired outcome is to create a lineup with a high floor and high
expected value. We can accomplish this through the following
levers:
I. Pitcher selection: key stats, vegas, salary distribution
II. Hitter selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors
III. Lineup construction: salary distribution, stacking, using an optimizer
2
I. Pitcher Selection
3
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Pitcher Selection: Key Stats
Stat Notes
Pitch Count Higher pitch count = more opportunity for high floor
Innings Pitched (IP) High (IP) = more opportunity for high floor
Strikeout Rate / Opp. Rate Look for high-strikeout probability
Pitcher wOBA Larger sample size is more indicative
Opposing Team wOBA Larger sample size is more indicative
Weather Beware of bad weather conditions
4
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Pitcher Selection: Using Vegas
Stat Notes
Projected Team Win Ex. Clayton Kershaw -220 moneyline
Expected Runs Against Suggest predicted runs allowed
Strikeout Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game
Ex. David Price (Bos) vs. Houston
5
II. Hitter Selection
6
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Hitter Selection: Key Stats
Stat Notes
Batting Order 1-5 lineup spots are safer plays, more opportunities
Handedness Splits Use Matchup wOBA (exclusively on RotoQL)
Weather and Ballpark Factors Coors Field and Other Park Indicators
Platoon Players Tend to be cheap salary, limits floor and upside
7
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Hitter Selection: Using Vegas
Stat Notes
Team Expected Runs Suggest predicted runs scored
Over/Under Best games with high predicted FPTs
Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game
8
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
PA/G vs Batting Order
Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy9
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Average Batting by Split
Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy10
www.rotoql.com
Source: Sports Baseball Americawww.rotoql.com
Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors
11
III. Lineup Construction
12
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Lineup Construction: Key Elements
Stat Notes
Salary Distribution Pitchers are more consistent
Stacking Still a viable strategy in many situations
Late Swap Strategy H2H - Be aware of available late swaps
Using an Optimizer Build through RotoQL
13
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Salary Distribution
Source: Daily Roto14
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
Stacking vs Outcome [DraftKings]
Source: DraftKings Playbook15
www.rotoql.com
www.rotoql.com
DraftKings Late Swap Strategy
● Be aware of swap opportunities in these contests
Scenario:● Losing in H2H contest, switch out a similar player for differentiated one
16
www.rotoql.com
Prepared Exclusively for Recipientwww.rotoql.com
Using an Optimizer
● Optimizing lineup combinations requires an optimizer to get best value
● Multiple lineups - manage with RotoQL’s player exposure to stay in control
17