Mitigation Symposium - Scott Edelman
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Transcript of Mitigation Symposium - Scott Edelman
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Post June 2013 flood considerations
AECOM Background
4
AECOM is a global provider of professional technical and management support services to a broad range of markets, including transportation, facilities, environmental and energy. AECOM is a leader in all of the key markets that it serves.
125Serving 125 countries
45K45,000 dedicated
professionals working globally
$7+bnUS$7.3 billion of revenue
during the 12 months ended March 31, 2011
No.1Top 500 Design Firm
353Ranked No.353 in
Fortune 500
AECOM
Disaster – The Way Forward Introducing AECOM Page 4
Overview
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With advance information, costly mistakes canbe avoided, destruction averted, and the wayto lasting victory made clear.
Sun Tzu:
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• Population growth• Climate change
Why are natural disasters striking with greater impact and more frequently in every corner of the world?
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Alberta is projected to grow from 4 to 6 million people by 2041
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FEMA / AECOM National Climate Change Report
Example Change: Q100
Releasedby Whitehouse
June 2013
Significant Technical Findings:• By Year 2100 riverine floodplains will double in size, • Coastal areas will double in size
Significant Financial Findings In today’s dollars: • Average loss cost per policy will increase by approximately 90%• Individual premiums will increase 10% to 40%
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IDENTIFY the risk
ASSESS the risk
COMMUNICATE the risk
MITIGATE the risk
Changing how we fundamentally deal with risk related to disasters
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Risk identification and assessment provides basis of decisions
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Risk communication needs to be relevant
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Risk mitigation to change in behavior
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Proactive Planning• Estimated cost $1
Reactive Emergency Response• Estimated cost $5-7
COST: What is the bottom line?
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The ill-logical hydrologic cycle
Flood
Panic
Plan
Delay
Funding is the typical reason why action is not taken.
Funding needs to take advantage of political good will
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“Oh don’t worry, we have a plan…”
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What level of
protection (critical
facilities)
Should it include future
conditions
Should freeboard
be expanded
Should set-backs /
floodway be
established
How should re-building take place?
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Clarifying Confusing Standards for Public
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We have confused the public with different definitions
Bridge Standard
AN ABSOLUTE
Flood Plain Elevation
AN AVERAGE
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All structures operate
correctly and will not fail
Structures will not be
obstructed with debris
Only existing conditions are
considered
Degree of uncertainty of the science
We need to inform the public on the underlying assumptions
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Assumption: Structures will operate properly and will not fail
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Assumption: Structures will not be blocked with debris
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Assumption: Only existing conditions are reflected on the maps
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Assumption: The average flood will occur
Regression Estimate Upper & Lower
Prediction Limits Water Surface
Average 1% Flood
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Statistics are used to predict the future
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Statistics use confidence limits to show range of likely results
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People generally do not associate mud and debris with flooding
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How effective are we today in communicating flood?
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Can products be improved to help guide behavior?
Path for success
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Planning a path forward
Top Success FactorsSource: PwC Mori Survey 1997
% of Companies Responding
Ensuring top sponsorship 82%
Treating people fairly 82%
Involving employees 75%
Giving quality communications
70%
Providing sufficient training 68%
Using clear performance measures
65%
Building teams after change 62%
Focusing on culture/skill changes
62%
Rewarding success 60%
Using internal champions 60%
Reasons for FailureSource: 1995 Harvard Business Review
One Way CommunicationsUnder communicating the vision by a factor of 10
Lack of Commitment Among WorkforceNot removing obstacles to achieve the new vision
Poor Change ManagementNot planning for change response from stake holders and not communicating benefits to them
Small Scale SuccessDeclaring Victory too soon and stopping
Culture Resistance or RejectionsNot anchoring change in the organization culture
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Simultaneously working on three fronts to drive business benefit
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Resist Reinforce Restrict Retreat
Protect with gates, levees
and hard structures
Protect whatwe must
Upgrade building codes/
ordinances
Where it’s too difficult or
impossible to protect
Investigate + Study
Likely Scenarios
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The Road Map to Recovery
• Define the Need / Create the Vision
• Assess the Extent of Damage and Scoping the
Works
• Reviewi the Options and assertain the priorities
• Accelerate the ‘Early Wins’
• Develop the Infrastructure Response Plan
• Agree the Strategy for Recovery
• Create the Infrastructure Master Plan
• Develop the Master Schedule and Budget
• Set up the Management Controls and Reporting
Structure
• Establish the Key Performance Indicators /
Deliverables
• Mobilise the Program Team
• Develop the Master Infrastructure Recovery
Plan
• Produce the Execution Strategy and
Implementation Plan
• Procure the Design Consultants
• Accelerate the Enabling Works Packages
• Monitor and Control the Program
• Launch the ‘Investor Confidence Initiative’
• Communicate the ‘Good News’ stories globally
• Produce the Procurement Strategy for Implementation
• Appoint the Program Management Consultant for
Delivery
• Launch the Recovery Program
Stage 1 – (30-120 Days) Stage 2 – (60 -180 Days) Stage 3 – (60+ Days)
STRATEGIC PLANNING PHASE
RESPOND RECOVER– Short Term RECOVER – Long Term
Page 35
Mitigation planning
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Property Protection
• Acquisition • Relocation
• Building elevation• Critical facilities
protection• Structural Retrofitting• Safe rooms, shutters,
shatter-resistant glass• Insurance
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Natural Resource Protection
• Floodplain protection• Watershed management
• Riparian buffers• Forest and vegetative
management • Erosion and sediment
control• Wetland preservation and
restoration• Habitat preservation• Coastal management
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Structural / Engineered Projects
• Reservoirs• Dams, levees, dikes• Seawalls, revetments,
gabions• Flood / tide gates,
hurricane barriers• Stormwater diversions,
detention/retention basins, channel
modification• Reservoirs
• Beach nourishment, dune restoration
• Slope stabilization
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Correcting Mistakes of the Past
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• Risk Communication (i.e. hazard map information)• Outreach projects• Speaker series/
demonstration events• Real estate disclosure
• Library materials• School children
educational programs• Hazard expositions
• Technical assistance
Public Education & Awareness
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Emergency Services
• Warning systems • Emergency response
equipment• Shelter operations
• Evacuation planning and management
• Emergency response training and exercises
• Sandbagging for flood protection
• Installing temporary shutters
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What makes a good mitigation plan?
• Process vs. Product– “Plans are worthless. Planning is essential.”
–Dwight D. Eisenhower• Holistic mitigation strategy
– Includes projects + policies + programs + recurring activities• Specific, practical and measurable actions
– Linked to sound assessments of risk and capability• Straightforward implementation mechanisms
– Routine monitoring, evaluating and updating– Integration with other community processes/initiatives– Effectively applied following disaster events
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Planning Process
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• Involve the public – not as easy as it sounds!• Develop strategy for multiple methods of engagement
– Meetings / Open Houses – Public Opinion Surveys – hard copy and web-deployed– Combine efforts with other public outreach initiatives– Be creative in getting the word out
Planning Process
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Continuous outreach and public relations yields actions at the community
NEW FLOOD MAPS
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Planning Process
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Planning Process
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• Involve local media– Press releases, interviews, etc.
• Establish more formal roles for those interested in participating in the process– Citizen Advisory Committee– Stakeholder Interest Groups
Planning Process
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• Relies heavily on historical data, GIS technology, and probabilistic risk modeling
• Better local data = better risk assessments
• Better risk assessments do not necessarily lead to higher quality mitigation plans– Have often been the most
overemphasized phase of the planning process
Risk Assessment
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HAZUS quantifies the disaster
Short Term
Shelter
Substantial Damage
Essential Facility Loss
of Use
Debris Generated
Truckloads Required to
Remove
Economic Loss
Ottawa 2,695 104 0 46,514 1,861 180.0M
Rogers 5,194 310 0 64,385 2,575 256.2M
Muskogee 2,023 69 4 26,456 1,058 111.8M
Pittsburg 825 113 0 30,235 1,209 117.6M
Carter 949 23 0 14.939 597 71.5M
Logan 857 79 2 21,461 858 102.2M
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Predicting the risk of flood in financial terms
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HAZUS: Based on best data
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Risk Assessment: Assessing Vulnerability
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Risk Assessment: Assessing VulnerabilityEstimated Potential Losses to Flood Hazards
Return Interval
Capital Stock Losses Business Interruption Losses
Total LossTotal Building Damage
Total Contents Damage
Inventory Loss
Relocation Loss
Capital Related
Loss
Wage Losses
Rental Income
Loss
10-Year $35,002,000 $44,332,000 $1,969,000 $226,000 $228,000 $1,148,000 $65,000 $82,970,000
50-Year $47,887,000 $60,430,000 $2,430,000 $316,000 $321,000 $1,255,000 $100,000 $112,739,000
100-Year $56,112,000 $73,797,000 $3,309,000 $390,000 $542,000 $1,501,000 $147,000 $135,798,000
500-Year $66,630,000 $88,974,000 $3,956,000 $445,000 $606,000 $1,861,000 $174,000 $162,646,000
Additional Impacts Caused by Flood Hazards
Return IntervalDebris Generated
(tons)Displaced
HouseholdsTemporary
Shelter Needs
10-Year 10,821 2,407 5,124
50-Year 14,446 3,066 6,860
100-Year 15,368 3,164 7,194
500-Year 17,539 3,534 8,200
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Risk Assessment: Assessing Vulnerability
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Risk Assessment: Summary Conclusions
Table 6.21Summary of Results
HazardCategory/Degree of Risk
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time Duration PRI ScoreAtmospheric Hazards
Extreme Temperatures Highly Likely Minor Small More than 24 hours Less than one week 2.3Extreme Wind Highly Likely Critical Large More than 24 hours Less than 24 hours 3.2Hurricane & Tropical Storm Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hours Less than 24 hours 3.2Lightning Highly Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.2Nor’easter Highly Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hours Less than one week 3.6Tornado Likely Limited Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.4Winter Storm Highly Likely Limited Large More than 24 hours Less than one week 3.0
Hydrologic Hazards
Coastal Erosion Highly Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hours More than one week 2.9
Dam Failure Unlikely Critical Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.1
Drought Possible Limited Moderate More than 24 hours More than one week 2.3
Flood Highly Likely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours More than one week 3.4
Storm Surge Possible Critical Moderate More than 24 hours Less than 24 hours 2.4
Wave Action Highly Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hours More than one week 2.9
Geologic HazardsEarthquake Unlikely Minor Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 1.5Landslide Likely Critical Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours 2.7
Other Natural HazardsWildfire Highly Likely Minor Moderate Less than 6 hours Less than one week 2.8
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Risk Assessment: Summary Conclusions
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Risk Assessment: Summary Conclusions
Table 5.22Conclusions on Hazard Risk
HIGH RISK
Nor’easterFlood
Extreme WindHurricane and Tropical Storm
Winter Storm
MODERATE RISK
Coastal ErosionWave Action
WildfireLandslide
Storm SurgeTornado
LOW RISK
DroughtExtreme Temperatures
LightningDam FailureEarthquake
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Mitigation Strategy: Mitigation Action Plan
Action
Category
Hazard
Objective(s) Addressed
Priority
Funding Sources
Responsibility
Completion Date
Background
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Mitigation Strategy: Mitigation Action Plan
• Actions should:– be realistically achievable;– be measureable (include
performance-based outcomes);– be tied to specific assignments of
responsibility; – include a mix of mitigation
techniques:• Prevention• Property Protection• Natural Resource Protection• Structural Projects • Public Education & Awareness
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Assign and enforce responsibility/accountability
Transparent and uniform methodof comparing projects
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• Uniform Cost Estimate– Pre-construction costs
– Construction costs
– Ancillary costs (permits, A&E fees …)
– Annual maintenance costs
– Time value of money
• Benefits– Avoided damages and losses
– Avoided causalities
– Avoided emergency management costs
Transparent uniform method to rank projects
Transparency in DecisionsTriple Bottom Line Tool
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The Triple Bottom Line (TBL)
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Financial (LCA)
Capital Costs
Operationsand Other* Costs
EnvironmentalClimate
Habitat
Water Use
Water Quality
Air Quality
Natural Resource Inputs
SocialSystem Resilience
Ratepayer Affordability
Bicycle and Pedestrian Environment
Odor
Noise
Recreation / Open Space
Employment
Cultural Resources
Construction Impacts
TBL Evaluation Criteria
* Includes Operations & Maintenance, Replacement & Renewal, Decommissioning, and Avoided Costs
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Operations and maintenance
Replacement and renewal
Decommissioning
Sale of bio-fuel energy
Avoided water treatment
Avoided combined sewer discharge
Design and planning
Capital equipment
Installation and construction
Operating cost
Avoided cost
Capital cost
LCA Components
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TBL ModelSummary Sheet
Doesn’t produce a recommendation or overall score
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TBL Model ComponentsProject Alternatives Comparison
Project Management
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Program management lowers risk
Leadership
Skills
Capacity
Latest Enabling
Technology
Schedule
Quality
Cost
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PM plan key processes developed real program experience
Financial Management Schedule Management
Requirements Management
Deliverable Management Data Management Communications
Management Change Management
Risk Management Action Item Management Subcontract Management
Quality Management
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• Risks – Adequate reporting and Timely information to client
PMI Life Cycle ProcessesMonitoring & Controlling Tracks
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Key performance
metrics
Balanced scorecard
Shared metrics
Earned value management
EVM portal
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Plan
Do
Check
Act
The QMP Defines the Levels of QA/QC
Checklists Peer Reviews Independent Reviews
Senior Technical Reviews
QASP
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Plan
Do
Check
Act
The QMP Provides a Means for Learning and Improving
Lessons Learned Process Improvement Project Closeout
Lessons Learned Library identifies opportunities for
Process Improvement
Flood simulation can teach actions
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• Serious computer game and simulator – Developed by PlayGen, Ltd. under direction from ASFPM Foundation
– PlayGen, Ltd developed “FloodSim” game for public awareness in the UK
• Purpose: – Simulation & learning environment for decision-makers
– Teach disaster-resilient & NAI principles for community development
– Show community health and smart floodplain management link
• Sponsorship opportunities available
“FloodManager” Interactive Professional Game
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Initial Town Layout
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Build Menu
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Storm Animation
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News Flash
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End of Year Summary
Preparing for the next flood disaster
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Winnipeg Digital Flood Manual
• Allows effective management for flooding• Easy transition plan as staff retire
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Simulated flood scenarios
• View the Flood Procedure Database component• Select desired flood scenario
• Specify query criteria• Display query results with resource quantities in
tabular or map display
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All flood defense activities tracked
• Print task lists for field crews
• Enter activity activation / deactivation data
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All documentation digital
Flood Warning
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Simple
Complicated ComplexForecasting
Mapping
Difficulty of flood prediction
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Stage 1: Planning Stage 2: Design & Implementation Stage 3: Operations
Proposed Implementation Process
Determine Needs & Capabilities Develop Systems & Procedures Effective & Sustainable Operations
Flood Warning System
Page 91
• Identify Areas to Receive Flood Warning Protection
• Identify Flood Hazards in the Defined Areas
• Research Historical Floods (known hazards)
• Prepare Engineering Models to Simulate Flood Scenarios
(potentially unknown hazards)
• Identify Populations and Infrastructure at Risk in the
Flood Hazard Areas
• Assess Response Capabilities
• Identify Organizations which Participate in Flood Response
in the Defined Areas
• Estimate Response Capabilities and Timelines
• Identify Responsible Agency• Develop a Funding Plan
• Meteorological Forecasting• Local Agency and/or 3rd Party
• Precipitation Monitoring• Satellite, Radar and Gauges
• Discharge Monitoring• Gauges on Dams and Streams
• Data Collection• Need Reliable Communications
• Flood Forecasting• Engineering Models with Flood
Mapping (static or dynamic)
• Develop Response Plans• Flood Emergency Action Plan
• Internal Communications Plan
• Operations & Maintenance Plan
• Public Education Plan
• Public Communications Plan
• System Implementation
Ongoing Activities:
• Operator Training
• Public Education
• Daily Operations
• Staff Operations Schedule
• Maintenance Schedule
• Monitor Meteorological Forecasts (long & short range)
• Monitor Flood Forecast Models
• Follow EAP Guidance for Flood Operation Triggers
• Flood Operations
• Mobilize, Monitor & Forecast
• EAP Response Guidance for Warnings & Evacuations
• Update Forecasts
• After-action Debriefs
• Revise Plans as Appropriate
Potential next steps
9393
• Flood recovery data• Policy development• Mitigation planning• Mitigation implementation• Knowledge sharing
Major steps forward
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Many citizens look for leadership from the government
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Policies established today will establish future resiliency of the Province
Risk communication to the public is essential for proper individual actions
Transparency on projects is crucial for public support
Monitor, Measure, Report, Repeat
Summary