Mitigation from a Global Perspective Siddharth Pathak

Why Mitigation ?

• The global averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data show a warming of 0.85 degree Celsius over the period of 1880 – 2012

• The total increase between the average of 1850 – 1990 and 2003 – 2012 period is 0.78 degree Celsius

Sea Level Rise and Co2 Concentrations

• Over the period of 1901 – 2010, Global mean sea level rise role by 0.19 m

• In 2011 – the concentration levels of Co2 in the atmosphere was 391 ppm which is 40% higher than pre industrial level

• Between 2081 – 2100 : Average mean surface temperature rise could be between 1.7 – 4.8 degree Celsius

Who is responsible ?

• Anthropogenic • Developed countries are responsible but as

prosperity is getting spread so are responsibilities

• The rich across the world have a very high carbon foot print

• The poor are on the first lines of impact and are most vulnerable

What needs to happen ?

• To keep warming below 2°C compared to the period between 1861 and 1880 with a probability of greater than 33, 50 and 66percent will require that cumulative emissions stay below 880 GtC, 840 GtC, and 800 GtC respectively; as of 2011 531 GtC had already been emitted (IPCC, 2013)

• Current emission reduction commitments and pledges have put the world on a path to warming of at least 3°C with a 20 percent change of reaching 4°C as early as 2060 (World Bank,2013)

Emission Reduction Pledges

Pledges

• Ninety Parties have made emission reduction pledges, who together represent 80 percent of global emissions (UNFCCC, 2013)

• However, even if these pledges are fully implemented, the emissions gap in 2020 will be 8 to 12 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year, assuming the lowest cost emission pathways are taken (UNEP, 2013)

Pathway towards reductions

• Meeting a temperature depends largely on cumulative goal

• Different pathways can correspond to same cumulative emissions

Overall picture of reduction

What needs to happen quickly – THE GAP

Closing the Gap

“Lock in” of high emission

• Currently produced energy-inefficient vehicles will still be on the road in 2020

• Energy-wasteful buildings now under construction will last 100 years

• Power plants are being constructed with fuel efficiency below what is technically feasible, and will have lifetime of >25 years

Political Opportunities

• Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions – Pre 2020

• Nationally Determined Contributions – Post 2020 Regime

• Climate Summit 2014 – Initiatives and ambitious actions

Thank you for your attention.