Mitigation and Adaptation

Lecture 9

• Climate mitigation is any action taken to permanently eliminate or reduce the long-term risk and hazards of climate change to human life, property. – The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

defines mitigation as: “An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.” Climate Mitigation and Adaptation

– In the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) three conditions are made explicit when working towards the goal of greenhouse gas stabilization in the atmosphere:

1. That it should take place within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change;

2. That food production is not threatened and;

3. That economic development should proceed in a sustainable manner

• Climate adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

• The IPCC defines adaptation as the;– “adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or

changing environment. Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation.”

In a nutshell• Mitigation – work against or alleviate

– Reducing emissions– Increase CO2 sequestration / increasing sinks– Reducing the impact – Reducing vulnerability

• Adaptation – Adjusting to climate change• Involuntary – Autonomous• Prescriptive - Planned

• A global problem needs an international solution• The Framework Convention on Climate Change

is a close as we have right now

CLIMATE CHANGEincl. Variability

CLIMATE CHANGEincl. Variability

Human Interference

Human Interference

Initial ImpactsEffects

Initial ImpactsEffects

ExpectedAdaptations

ExpectedAdaptations

Residual orNet ImpactsResidual orNet Impacts

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IES

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PolicyResponses

PolicyResponses

dangerous? vulnerable?dangerous? vulnerable?

MITIGATIONof Climate Changevia GHG sources

and sinks

MITIGATIONof Climate Changevia GHG sources

and sinks

PlannedADAPTATION

to theImpacts and

Vulnerabilities

PlannedADAPTATION

to theImpacts and

Vulnerabilities

Climate Change – An integrated framework

Some Climate Policy History

UN Conference on Environment & Development

• Rio Earth Summit – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1992– has been known ever since as the Rio Conventions – 3 conventions showcased

• The Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),

• The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), • The United Nations Convention to Combat

Desertification (UNCCD)

• UN FCCC opened for signature in 1992, took effect in 1994 to reduce global warming and cope with the associated changes – the goal of preventing dangerous human interference

with the climate system

UN FCCC: an international treaty• The Convention sets an ultimate objective of stabilizing

greenhouse gas concentrations… – "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic

(human induced) interference with the climate system." – It states that "such a level should be achieved within a

time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner."

– Non Binding • The Convention requires precise and regularly updated

inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized countries.

• With a few exceptions, the "base year" for tabulating greenhouse gas emissions has been set as 1990. Developing countries also are encouraged to carry out inventories.

UN FCCC: an international treaty• Countries ratifying the treaty - called “Parties to the

Convention” - agree to take climate change into account in such matters as agriculture, industry, energy, natural resources, and activities involving sea coasts.

• They agree to develop national programs to slow climate change.

• In September 1992 President Bush transmitted the UNFCCC for advice and consent of the U.S. Senate to ratification. The Foreign Relations Committee approved the treaty and reported it (Senate Exec. Rept. 102-55).

• The Senate consented to ratification on with a two-thirds majority vote.

• President Bush signed the instrument of ratification October 13 1992 and forwarded it to the U.N. Secretary General.

• The Convention recognizes that it is a "framework" document -- something to be amended or augmented over time so that efforts to deal with global warming and climate change can be focused and made more effective. The first addition to the treaty was the Kyoto Protocol.

Kyoto Protocol • FCCC Protocol is aimed at reducing greenhouse gases • Adopted Dec 11th 1997 – at the 3rd COP held in Kyoto, Japan • The 1997 Kyoto Protocol shares the FCCC’s objective, principles

and institutions, but significantly strengthens the Convention by committing Annex I Parties to individual, legally-binding targets to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

• Only Parties to the Convention that have also become Parties to the Protocol (i.e. by ratifying, accepting, approving, or acceding to it) will be bound by the Protocol’s commitments.

• 182 countries and one regional economic integration organization (the EEC) have ratified the Protocol to date.

• Of these, 36 developed countries (Annex 1 Countries) plus the EEC are required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below levels specified for each of them in the treaty. Australia ratified in 2007 at the Bali COP.

• 137 developing Countries including Brazil, India and China have ratified the protocol but with no obligations for monitoring or reducing emissions

Kyoto Protocol • Negotiations culminated at COP 7 in 2001 with the adoption

of the Marrakesh Accords, setting out detailed rules for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.

• The individual targets add up to a total cut in greenhouse-gas emissions of at least 5% from 1990 levels in the first commitment period 2008-2012.

• The United States is the only developed country that hasn’t signed and would be required to reduce its total emissions an average of 7% below 1990 levels, however neither the Clinton administration nor the Bush administration sent the protocol to Congress for ratification. The Bush administration explicitly rejected the protocol in 2001.

• Kyoto Protocol entered into force Feb 16 2005• If the Enforcement Branch determines that an Annex I

country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then that country is required to make up the difference plus an additional 30%. In addition, that country will be suspended from making transfers under an emissions trading program

Kyoto Ratification Status (June 2009)

Kyoto Ratification Status (June 2011)

Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this limitation represents a 29% cut). The goal is to lower overall emissions of six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons - averaged over the period of 2008-2012.

National limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.

UNFCC Bodies • The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the prime authority of the Convention. It is an

association of all member countries (or "Parties") and usually meets annually for a period of two weeks. These sessions are attended by several thousand government delegates, observer organizations, and journalists. The Conference of the Parties evaluates the status of climate change and the effectiveness of the treaty. It examines the activities of member countries, particularly by reviewing national communications and emissions inventories; it considers new scientific findings; and it tries to capitalize on experience as efforts to address climate change proceed.

• A Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) counsels the Conference of the Parties on matters of climate, the environment, technology, and method. It meets twice a year.

• A Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) helps review how the Convention is being applied, for example by analyzing the national communications submitted by member countries. It also deals with financial and administrative matters. The SBI meets twice each year.

• Several expert groups exist under the Convention. A Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) on National Communications from "non-Annex 1 Parties" helps developing countries prepare national reports on climate change issues. A Least Developed Country Expert Group (LEG) advises such nations on establishing programs for adapting to climate change. And an Expert Group on Technology Transfer (EGTT) seeks to spur the sharing of technology with less-advanced nations.

• Partner agencies include the Global Environment Facility (GEF) of the World Bank, which has existed since 1991 to fund projects in developing countries that will have global environmental benefits. The job of channeling grants and loans to poor countries to help them address climate change, as called for by the Convention, has been delegated to the GEF because of its established expertise.

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides services to the Convention, although it is not part of it, through publishing comprehensive reviews every five years of the status of climate change and climate-change science, along with special reports and technical papers on request

Actors in the Negotiations • Countries belonging to the Convention hold the real power --

they take decisions at sessions of the Conference of the Parties (most decisions are reached by consensus). Member countries often form alliances to increase efficiency and maximize influence during negotiations. The Conference has several groupings representing the concerns of developing countries, least-developed countries, small-island states, Europe (through the European Union), non-European industrialized nations, oil-exporting nations, and nations committed to "environmental integrity.” Countries get extensive input from many sources

• "Observer" is the official term for groups and agencies allowed to attend and even speak at international meetings, but not to participate in decision-making.

• Among observers permitted by the Convention are intergovernmental agencies, such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); the International Energy Agency; and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). To date, over 50 intergovernmental agencies and international organizations attend sessions of the Conference of Parties.

The UNFCCC Secretariat• Observers also include non-governmental organizations

(NGOs). These represent business and industrial interests, environmental groups, local governments, research and academic institutes, religious bodies, labor organizations, and population groups such as indigenous peoples. To win accreditation as observers, NGOs must be legally constituted not-for-profit entities "competent in matters related to the Convention." Currently, more than 600 NGOs are accredited to participate in meetings related to the Convention.

• A secretariat staffed by international civil servants supports the Convention and its supporting bodies. It makes practical arrangements for meetings, compiles and distributes statistics and information, and assists member countries in meeting their commitments under the Convention. The secretariat is based in Bonn, Germany.

Copenhagen Summit (Denmark December 7th – 18th) included the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the UNFCCC and the 5th Meeting of the Parties (COP/MOP 5) to the Kyoto Protocol. According to the Bali Road Map, a framework for climate change mitigation beyond 2012 was to be agreed there.

• The Copenhagen Accord was drafted by

• US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa • Judged a "meaningful agreement" by the United States government.

• The document is not legally binding and does not contain any legally binding commitments for reducing CO2 emissions

US-LED COPENHAGEN DEAL No reference to legally binding agreement

Recognizes the need to limit global temperatures rising no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels Developed countries to "set a goal of mobilizing jointly $100bn a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries"

On transparency: Emerging nations monitor own efforts and report to UN every two years. Some international checks

No detailed framework on carbon markets - "various approaches" will be pursued

The U.S. pledged to reduce GHG emissions by 17% of 2005 levels by 2020.

A failure?WikiLeaks U.S. diplomatic cables released in December 2010 by revealed the reason for the apparent failure of this summit •The cables suggest that the United States and People's Republic of China, the world's top two CO2 emitters, joined forces to stymie every attempt made in the summit to reach an agreement. •According to the Guardian paper (UK) - Chinese were told that Washington could understand "China's resistance to accepting mandatory targets at the United Nations Climate Conference, which will take place in Copenhagen" and "a new basis for 'major cooperation' between the United States and China on climate change" was outlined, effectively deterring world leaders from reaching a strong conclusion on climate change mitigation beyond 2012

United States of America• Cut greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 2005

levels by 2020, 42% by 2030 and 83% by 2050

Australia• To cut carbon emissions by 25% below 2000 levels

by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal to stabilize levels of CO2e to 450 ppm or lower.

• To cut carbon emissions by 15% below 2000 levels by 2020 if there is an agreement where major developing economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on commitments comparable to Australia.

• To cut carbon emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020 unconditionally

o The conference agreed to a legally binding deal comprising all countries, which will be prepared by 2015, and to take effect in 2020. o There was also progress regarding the creation of a Green Climate Fund (GCF) for which a management framework was adopted. The fund is to distribute US$100 billion per year to help poor countries adapt to climate impacts.

o The 2011 COP president, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, declared it a success.

o Scientists and environmental groups warned that the deal was not sufficient to avoid global warming beyond 2°C as more urgent action is needed.

Today’s Technology Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation

Coal-Fired Power Plants Build 1,000 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants (in lieu of coal-fired plants without CO2 capture and storage)

Geologic Sequestration Install 3,700 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project (0.27 MtC/year)

Nuclear Build 500 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)

Efficiency Deploy 1 billion new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg

Wind Energy Install capacity to produce 50 times the current global wind generation (in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)

Solar Photovoltaics Install capacity to produce 1,000 times the current global solar PV generation (in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)

Biomass fuels from plantations Convert a barren area about 15 times the size of Iowa’s farmland (about 30 million acres) to biomass crop production

CO2 Storage in New Forest. Convert a barren area about 30 times the size of Iowa’s farmland to new forest

How Big is a Gigaton? Using Today’s Technology, These Actions Can Cut Emissions by 1 GtC/Year

Giga-Tonnes = 109 Metric-Tonnes (1000 Kilograms)

Mitigation OptionsMost mitigation options can be described broadly into two categories technical and policy. These options have varying costs, economic impacts, and implementation requirements. These options are many but they generally fall into the short and long-term options. Short Term:•Improved Energy Efficiency •Utilization of cleaner energy resources and technologies •Improved forest management •Phasing out of CFCs under Montreal Protocol •Improved livestock waste management, altered use and formulation of fertilizers, and other changes to agricultural land use, while maintaining food security.

Mitigation OptionsMost mitigation options can be described broadly into two categories technical and policy. These options have varying costs, economic impacts, and implementation requirements. These options are many but they generally fall into the short and long-term options. Short Term:•Improved Energy Efficiency •Utilization of cleaner energy resources and technologies •Improved forest management •Phasing out of CFCs under Montreal Protocol •Improved livestock waste management, altered use and formulation of fertilizers, and other changes to agricultural land use, while maintaining food security.

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Mitigation

Example: black carbon– retiring old vehicles, – filtering exhausts, – getting people better stoves and cleaner fuel to burn

in them, – stopping widespread burning of agricultural waste, – modernizing kilns and coking ovens.

The benefits in terms of breathing better and dying later accrue mostly to the country that is doing the cutting.

Mitigation by Sector– Residential, Commercial, and Institutional Buildings Sector

• Building Equipment, Building Structures – Transport Sector

• Cars, Trucks, Aircraft – Industrial Sector

• Energy efficiencies and materials – Energy Supply Sector

• Low carbon fuels, decarbonization of flue gases and fuels, and CO2 storage; switching to nuclear energy; and switching to renewable sources of energy

– Agricultural Sector • Improved rice production, improved ruminant management, improved fertilizer use

– Forest Sector• Slowing deforestation, Reforestation, Afforestation, Wood residue energy,

– Solid Waste and Wastewater Disposal • Solid waste source reduction (paper recycling, composting, and incineration), and

through CH4 recovery from landfills and wastewater – Economic Instruments

• National Level changes in the current structure of subsidies, either to reduce subsidies for GHG-emitting activities or to offer subsidies for activities that limit GHG emissions or enhance sinks; domestic taxes on GHG emissions; and tradable permits.

• International Level changes in international taxes or harmonized domestic taxes; tradable quotas; and joint implementation

Clean Development Mechanism COP 6 Agreements• Flexible Mechanisms: The "flexibility" mechanisms which the United

States had strongly favored as the Protocol was initially put together, including emissions trading; Joint Implementation (JI); and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) which allow industrialized countries to fund emissions reduction activities in developing countries as an alternative to domestic emission reductions. One of the key elements of this agreement was that there would be no quantitative limit on the credit a country could claim from use of these mechanisms, but that domestic action must constitute a significant element of the efforts of each Annex B country to meet their targets.

• Carbon sinks: Credit was agreed to for broad activities that absorb carbon from the atmosphere or store it, including forest and cropland management, and re-vegetation, with no over-all cap on the amount of credit that a country could claim for sinks activities. In the case of forest management, an Appendix Z establishes country-specific caps for each Annex I country, for example, a cap of 13 million tons could be credited to Japan (which represents about 4% of its base-year emissions). For cropland management, countries could receive credit only for carbon sequestration increases above 1990 levels.

Adaptation

Adaptation: From the U.S. Global Change Research Program

• No matter how aggressively heat-trapping emissions are reduced, some amount of climate change and resulting impacts will continue. Consequently, there is a need for adaptation.

• Adaptation can include a wide range of activities.– Examples: – include a farmer switching to growing a different crop

variety better suited to warmer or drier conditions; – a company relocating key business centers away from

coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise and hurricanes;

– and a community altering its zoning and building codes to place fewer structures in harm’s way and making buildings less vulnerable to damage from floods, fires, and other extreme events.

• However, it is clear that there are limits to how much adaptation can achieve. – Humans have adapted to changing conditions in the past, but in

the future, adaptations will be particularly challenging because society won’t be adapting to a new steady state but rather to a moving target.

– Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty.

• In an increasingly interdependent world, U.S. vulnerability to climate change is linked to the fates of other nations. – For example, conflicts or mass migrations of people resulting

from food scarcity and other resource limits, health, or environmental stresses in other parts of the world could threaten national security. It is thus difficult to fully evaluate the impacts of climate change on the United States without considering the consequences of climate change elsewhere.

Adaptation in UNFCCC, KyotoAdaptation in UNFCCC, Kyoto

UNFCCC, Art. 2 Dangerous depends on ability of ecosystems, food production and economic development to adapt

UNFCCC, Art. 4.1 …facilitate adequate adaptation… …co-operate in preparing for adaptation...

UNFCCC, Art. 4.4, 4.8 …assist developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation...

Kyoto, Art. 10 Formulate, implement…measures to facilitate adequate adaptation...

UNFCCC, Art. 2 Dangerous depends on ability of ecosystems, food production and economic development to adapt

UNFCCC, Art. 4.1 …facilitate adequate adaptation… …co-operate in preparing for adaptation...

UNFCCC, Art. 4.4, 4.8 …assist developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation...

Kyoto, Art. 10 Formulate, implement…measures to facilitate adequate adaptation...

Adaptation to Climate ChangeAdaptation to Climate Change

Definition: Adjustments in ecological, social or economicsystems in response to actual or expectedclimate change stimuli, their effects or impacts

Definition: Adjustments in ecological, social or economicsystems in response to actual or expectedclimate change stimuli, their effects or impacts

• to reduce vulnerability• to moderate damages• to realize opportunities

• to reduce vulnerability• to moderate damages• to realize opportunities

Barry Smit COP 6 2001

Adaptation initially seen as an excuse for not doing anythingfrom PASSIVE to ACTIVE

Adaptation has local benefits and is immediate

Vulnerability to Climate Change

depends upon

Vulnerability to Climate Change

depends upon

• Exposure to Climate Change Riskand

• Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks

Link Between Adaptation, Vulnerability and Sustainability

• Exposure to Climate Change Riskand

• Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks

Link Between Adaptation, Vulnerability and Sustainability

Coping RangeCoping Range

Climate Change Extremes and Concept of Coping RangeClimate Change Extremes and Concept of Coping Range

ClimaticAttribute (X)

ClimaticAttribute (X)

Time (years)Time (years)

Current ClimateCurrent Climate Changed ClimateChanged Climate

Frequency /Probabilityof Occurrence(e.g. years)

Frequency /Probabilityof Occurrence(e.g. years)

Values of Climatic Attribute (X)Values of Climatic Attribute (X)

XX

Coping RangeCoping Range

Current ClimateCurrent Climate

Probability ofhigh extremesProbability ofhigh extremes

XccXcc

Changed ClimateChanged Climate

Coping RangeCoping Range

• crop diversification• purchase insurance• house designs

• crop diversification• purchase insurance• house designs

Types of AdaptationTypes of Adaptation

• early-warning• building codes• infrastructure

• early-warning• building codes• infrastructure

• disaster relief• relocation incentives• disaster relief• relocation incentives

• crop development• borrow, change activity• reconstruction, relocation

• crop development• borrow, change activity• reconstruction, relocation

• changes in ecosystem composition, location• wetland migration

• changes in ecosystem composition, location• wetland migration

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NaturalSystems

HumanSystems

NaturalSystems

HumanSystems

AnticipatoryAnticipatory ReactiveReactive

Main Findings re. AdaptationMain Findings re. Adaptation

1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts

2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not without costs

3. The key features of climate change are variabilities and extremes

4. Planned adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits

5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if they are integrated with existing management and development processes

1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts

2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not without costs

3. The key features of climate change are variabilities and extremes

4. Planned adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits

5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if they are integrated with existing management and development processes

Main Findings re Adaptive CapacityMain Findings re Adaptive Capacity

6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries and socio-economic groups

7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they tend to omit climate change risks

8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable

9. Current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient

6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries and socio-economic groups

7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they tend to omit climate change risks

8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable

9. Current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient

Research Needs for Adaptation PolicyResearch Needs for Adaptation Policy

Adaptation Processes• decision making• conditions that stimulate or constrain• role of non-climate factors

Evaluation of Adaptation Options• not only economic criteria• include roles of stakeholders

Focus on Adaptive Capacity• to reduce vulnerabilities• relate to existing management processes• incorporate in development initiatives

Adaptation Processes• decision making• conditions that stimulate or constrain• role of non-climate factors

Evaluation of Adaptation Options• not only economic criteria• include roles of stakeholders

Focus on Adaptive Capacity• to reduce vulnerabilities• relate to existing management processes• incorporate in development initiatives

A Business Perspective On Climate Change "The risks presented by climate change are too big to ignore…“

• Investment risk: questions of existing carbon footprint and likely abatement requirements and opportunities in making investment decisions will be material– whether as part of day to day management, expansion or in the context of acquisitions or financings as part of due diligence;

• Insurance risk: some members of the insurance industry are asking insured to manage their climate change risk in order to benefit from comprehensive Directors and Officers liability cover;

• Disclosure obligations: Initial Public Offerings are beginning to address climate change issues as a possible risk factor. Against this backdrop, boards would be wise to consider the anticipated impact of climate change issues on their business as part of the corporate governance process;

A business perspective • Businesses need to play a key role in this process to

ensure its views are accounted for. Areas for action include: – Energy efficiency: many of the easiest wins derive from improving

energy efficiency in buildings, products and vehicles. Currently, regulation is still more an impediment than an impetus, but EU directives on energy efficiency are starting to have an impact and for example this will gradually influence commercial property values.

– Carbon capture: this is a key technology for the energy sector, which accounts for 30% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Not only is new regulation required to permit the financial support necessary to enable energy from carbon capture projects to compete with brown energy, but a regime to address longtail liability issues and to amend existing regulation will need to be developed.

– Forestry: protecting, maintaining and expanding tropical rainforest across the developing world is one of the cheaper abatement mechanisms. Historically it has not received as much focus because the emission reductions this generates are priced at a lower level than other abatement measures and have not been accepted within EU-ETS.