Mitigating and Responding to Climate Change in Iowa

Jerry SchnoorDept of Civil & Environmental

EngineeringCenter Global & Regional Environ

Research

IA Air and Waste Management Association

Little Amana

November 18, 2008

Outline of the talk

• Science of Climate Change

• Natural vs. human causes

• Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council policy options

• What can we (Iowans) do?

Organic Carbon Stored in Iowa Soils

Past glacial periods were likely produced by a change in earth’s orbit and the angle of its axis w.r.t. the sun…

Earth’s history provides most important information on global warming.

Recorded human history occurs within the Holocene warm period.

Fossil Fuel Reservoirs and 1750–2004 Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Oil Gas Coal

Gt

C

Reserve growth

Proven reserves*

Emissions (CDIAC)

EIA

IPCC

CO

2 (p

pm

v)

600

400

200

100

300

0

500

*Oil & gas from EIA

**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be large

Other

MethaneHydrates

Shale Oil

Tar Sands

? **

Slide courtesy of James Hansen, NASA GISS

The Fossil Fuel Age: burning millions of years of stored carbon

CO2,CH4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic ΔT/2 in ice core era)0 = 1880-1899 mean.

Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.

Current GHGs are unprece-dented for over 600 K years

We know these gases are caused by humans due to multiple lines of evidence

• Carbon dioxide began to rise at the beginning of the industrial revolution

• The amount accumulating in the atmosphere can be accounted for by human CO2 emissions

• The dynamics can only be explained only by mixing from human sources

• Lines of evidence:1. The timing is right2. The amount is right3. The dynamics are

right

But could the warming we are experiencing be due to poorly understood natural

variations?

To be sure, we do not understand all there is to know about earth’s climate. There is

uncertainty in every measurement and estimate. But we know reasonably well the

major factors that influence climate over geologic time. And whatever natural warming

may be occurring is only exacerbated by human GHG emissions.

Climate Change – 0.8 C warmer in the past 130 yrs

We know the temperature increase has been (mostly) caused by humans from multiple

lines of evidence:

1. CO2 is a greenhouse gas; it absorbs back-radiation from the earth

2. The amount of energy that GHG’s absorb is sufficient to explain the warming of the earth in recent decades when coupled with natural climatic variations like sunspot activity and volcanic eruptions

3. Several other records are in keeping with earth’s warming from a human source– Ocean temperatures– Sea level rise– Sea ice melting and ice

shelf break-up– Glacier and permafrost

melting

GCM models agree on future warming (IPCC)

• Models agree on + (2.0-4.5) oC (3.6-8.1 oF) w/in 100 yrs in IPCC 4th Assessment (2007)

• Best estimate is 3 oC warmer (5.4 oF) by 2100

• 0.6 oC (1.1 oF )more warming is inevitable, but if we act within 10 years or so, we can stop dangerous climate interference (Hansen et al., 2006)

Dangerous: >500 ppm CO2 despite 60-70% emissions cut

385 ppm CO2

650 ppm CO2

Metrics for “Dangerous” Change – 2 oC warming

Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level Rise

Regional Climate Disruptions1. Increase of Extreme Events (floods, droughts)2. Changing Precipitation Patterns/Freshwater Shortages

Loss of Animal & Plant Species

Images:Sea Ice: Claire Parkinson & Robert TaylorPolar Bears: Unknown

Future loss of Arctic sea ice could result in a loss of 2/3 of the world's polar bears within 50 years.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey www.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar%5Fbears/

Arctic Change:

Meltwater descending into a moulin, a vertical shaftcarrying water to ice sheet base

Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

Surface Melt on Greenland

Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland

Discharge from major Greenland ice streams is accelerating markedly

Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen, Univ. of Colorado

Western Antartica Ice Shelves are breaking-up

• Larsen 1996• Ross 2002• Wilkins 2008

Antarctica Wilkins Ice Sheet Break-up, March 2008

• Wilkins ice sheet in western Antarctica is beginning to break-up

• Shown here is a break in 26 mile long iceberg that resulted in the loss of 160 sq. mi.

• Total Wilkins ice shelf is 5000 sq mi and up to 820 ft thick; it formed during last 300-2000 yrs

Abrupt Climate Change: Areas Under Water

Tipping Points

• One of the reasons that we must act now is to avoid nonlinearities, tipping points into a new climate domain– Storm severity– Loss of ice-sheets– Sea level rise– Species extinctions– Reversal of North Atlantic

thermohaline circulation– Release of clathrate

methane, CO2 from deep ocean

Iowa’s Energy and GHG Future?

ICCAC Scenarios for GHG Reductions in Iowa:

-- 50% and 90% reductions by 2050

Baseline Year: 2005

Interim Target Years: 2012 and 2020 (not completed)

Policy Options: 54 Options evaluated based on their potential for GHG reductions and their cost

Energy Choices – Can we transition from the fossil fuel

age?• Low Hanging Fruit:

– Transportation (25% GHG)– Buildings (40+% of GHG)

• Transportation:– Gas mileages >100 mi/gal– Hybrids to Hydrogen?

• Hybrids• Plug-in hybrids• Flex-fuel plug-in hybrids• Hydrogen fuel cell cars“…Climate change represents an

enormous economic opportunity.”

Wm. Jefferson Clinton, 2007

Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council Policy Options -- Cost per ton (CO2eq)

reduction

High cost

Moderate cost

Some promising policy options

Options Cost per ton CO2 saved or avoided

GHG Reduction by 2020 (MMtCO2eq)

CRE-2 Technology 60% wind, 20% biomass, 20% fuel cell

+ $29 32

AFW-3 Ag Biomass (1 MM acres) for heat, elect., steam (chp)

+ $38 20

CRE-5 Performance stds. 40% wind, 20% bio, 20% solar, 20% nuclear

+ $8 11

AFW-5 No-till and soil carbon sequestration

~ $0 11

Some promising policy options

Options Cost per ton CO2 saved or avoided

GHG Reduction by 2020 (MMtCO2eq)

CRE-4a Decarbonization fund from carbon tax (wind)

+ $5 10

AFW-6 Cellulosic biofuels (perennials)

- $30 9

EEC-3 Energy Efficiency Revolving Loan Fund

- $23 6

EEC-2 Demand Side management for natural gas

- $30 (approx.) 5

Some really cost-effective policy options

Options Cost per ton CO2 saved or avoided

GHG Reduction by 2020 (MMtCO2eq)

AFW-7 On-farm efficiency

- $90 1

TLU-7 Fuel efficient operations for cars

- $90 0.65

TLU-4 Support passenger rail service

- $85 0.001

Some controversial policy options

Options Cost per ton CO2 saved or avoided

GHG Reduction by 2020 (MMtCO2eq)

CRE-7 Nuclear Power (maintain + 1 new plant by 2020)

+ $29 9

TLU-10 Low Carbon Fuel Standard (like CA)

+ $70 5

CRE-4b Carbon Tax (economy wide)

Midwest Governor’s Accord: 60-80% reduction by 2050

Plug-in Hybrids

• Advantages– Use wind power at night

to recharge the battery at a cost of $0.50/gal (thus making wind storable in 200 million car batteries)

– 50-100 mpg depending on your ratio of commuting to long-haul

• Disadvantages– More expensive cars– Recharging stations

needed and time-to-recharge

Leadership in Energy Efficiency Buildings

• GHG emissions associated with our buildings is 40+% of the total

• Low Hanging Fruit (buildings like a tree… Wm. McDonough, Cradle to Cradle)

• Change out our capital stocks– Cars (5-10 yrs)– Wind Power (2-5 yrs)– Power plants (50 yrs +)– Buildings (50-75 yrs)

• LEED certification is run by the U.S. Green Building Council, and there are other alternatives

Renewable Energy: Solar PV Homes

• Solar homes can be fitted with racks of PV cells on the roof

• SUNSLATES roofing tiles by Atlantis Energy with AstroPower PV modules (a 5 kW system with battery backup and linked to the local utility)

• 1,000,000 homes in California and Japan are doing it!

Iowa Wind Power

• Iowa is third in the U.S. in nameplate capacity wind– It’s cost competitive

$0.05 cents/Kwh– Iowa has 1450 MW so

far, with another 450 MW in process (8% of total)

– Green collar jobs (1000s) at wind turbine mfgs.

• Wind power is clean and renewable, but we need to find a method to store it

Integrated Gasification and Combined Cycle

• Gasification of the Coal to make a gaseous fuel stream that burns cleaner than the coal itself

• Combined cycle is more efficient that normal coal-fired power plant (32% thermal efficiency)

• IGCC plants are considered to be “carbon capture ready” because the gasification stream can be run to produce a more concentrated CO2 gas for economical capture

Carbon Sequestration in deep geologic formations is already commonly used for

secondary recovery in oil fields

• Oil companies have been practicing carbon sequestration (or carbon storage) for decades

• Rich CO2 streams from petroleum fields are pumped back into the formation to recover more oil and gas

• Pipelines are already used to transport the gas and to sequester it below 3500 ft as supercritical CO2 (like a liquid at gas/liquid density)

• Illinois has deep coal beds that could be used for this purpose

Conclusions

• We are approaching tipping points in the climate system due to greenhouse gases that requires a concerted global effort within the next 10 years to greatly decrease our emissions (50-90% reductions by 2050)

• Transitioning from the fossil fuel age to reliance on conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy sources can provide us with: – An enormous economic opportunity & green collar

jobs– Energy security– A cleaner environment– A stable climate

• Iowa is already a leader and will prosper as a result

What can we do?

We can teach, we can discover, we can serve…

S U S T _ _ N _ B _ E

F U T U _ E

Medieval Warm Period (900-1300 A.D.) was not globally as

warm as it is now

Maunder Minimum in sun spots