MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS AWUW November 2008 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Bradley...

MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW

November 2008

Corridor IntegratedWeather System

(CIWS)

Bradley Crowe

Aviation Weather Users Workshop

November 18th - 19th

This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government.


November 2008

Outline

• CIWS background

• CIWS base weather products

– Precip

– Winter Precip

– Echo Tops

• CIWS 2 hour deterministic forecasts

• Additional CIWS products

• RAPT overview

• Future work


November 2008

Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)

• Air Traffic Control System Command Center

• Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC) (ZAU, ZOB, ZID, ZDC, ZBW, ZNY, ZMP, ZKC)

• Terminal Radar Approach Controls (TRACON) (N90, C90, CVG, D21, PIT, CLE)

• Great Lakes Office

• Airlines with dedicated displays

2008

2007

Dedicated CIWS Display Users

Automated Weather Products

DecisionSupport Tools

Web-basedToolsDedicated Displays

Models (e.g., RUC)

Satellites

Lightning

Real-timeWeatherProduct

Generator

LLWAS ASOS

Surface Weather Canadian

Canadian

Weather Radar

NEXRADASR-9

TDWR Canadian

Researchers

Aircraft

• User driven research with high degree of operational interaction

• Platform for evaluating new forecast technologies in an operational setting

• Provides digital weather products to weather- assimilated Decision Support Tools and researchers


November 2008

Operating the Prototype

24 x 7 operation

User access to operational team via page, phone, e-mail

Proactive user support

– Observing system behavior and operational use in real-time

Regular operation-based training

“… we NEED this information to do our jobs … without it, the wheels will come off the wagon …” ZDC STMC

Planned for transition to WJHTC by 2011

Planned for transition to WJHTC by 2011


November 2008

Estimated Annual Benefits

Occurrences

Estimated CIWS Applications Per Year

1 Improved situational awareness 9 Directing pathfinders2 Enhanced inter/intra-facility coordination 10 Close routes proactively3 Reduced workload 11 FAA facility staffing assistance4 Proactive reroutes 12 Directing traffic through weather gaps5 Routes open longer 13 More departures during Severe Weather6 Improved Arr/Dep transition area Avoidance Programs (SWAP) (ATA/DTA) management 14 Improved safety7 Reduced Miles-in-Trail (MIT) restrictions 15 Improved Ground Delay Program (GDP)8 Improved Ground Stop Program management management

5377

3805

1975 1769

1021513 492 361 345 287 277 256 156 75

6729

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Proactive Reroutes

Routes Open Longer

5377

3805

1975 1769

1021513 492 361 345 287 277 256 156 75

6729

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Proactive Reroutes

Routes Open Longer

Proactive Reroutes

Routes Open Longer


November 2008

Overview of CIWS display features

Base CIWS Weather Products

Secondary CIWS Weather Products

Loop Controls

System Menus

Color Bars

Precip Products (title Bar)

Forecast Products

Echo Tops Products

View Menu


November 2008

CIWS on the Web

Click Live Website link

URL: http://www.wx.ll.mit.edu/ciws

Account and Password request available on home

page

NWSNWS216

Web and SD are both

Java based and very similar

Login with assigned Account and

Password


November 2008

CIWS Weather Products

• Precp: Mosaic of Vertical Integrate Liquid Water (VIL) – Mosaic consists of NEXRAD, Canadian and TDWR data

• Winter Precip: Uses VIL with an improved lower threshold to sense weaker precipitation as well as surface and model data to display precipitation type

• Echo Tops: used high resolution Echo Tops product in a mosaic to display tops at 18 dBZ


November 2008

Standard and Winter Precipitation Colors

Past Weather Precipitation Colors

StandardWinter

Liquid Mixed Snow

Level 1a Level 1a Level 1a

Level 1 Level 1b Level 1b Level 1b

Level 1c

Level 1c+ Level 1c+

Level 2 Level 2

Level 3 Level 3

Level 4 Level 4

Level 5 Level 5

Level 6 Level 6

Standard colors for past and current weather

Winter colors for past and current weather


November 2008

Precipitation Product

• Loops from -120 min to present in 5-min increments

• Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi

• Update rate: 2.5 min when looping Precip only;5 min when looping with Precipitation Forecast

• First left click selects Precip as the base product

• Subsequent clicks toggle display levels

• Right click displays dialog box

Filter options

• First left click selects Precip as the base product

• Subsequent clicks toggle display levels


November 2008

Precipitation Phase Algorithm

RUC Model Data

MADIS DATA

MADIS mesonet stations in the North-American domain on May 26, 2004

CIWS precipitation phase algorithm CIWS precipitation

phase and phase forecast

• Surface temperature and dew point • Upper level temperature and dew point • surface precipitation phase data

Precipitation phase algorithm uses:


November 2008

Winter Precipitation Product

• Provides additional detail within Level 1 precipitation, which may contain light (Level 1a), moderate (Level 1b), or heavy (Level lc) snow or mixed precipitation

• Precipitation phase is represented in greens (rain), pinks (mixed), and blues (snow)

• Coverage equal to extended radar coverage

Filter Options

= No Phase Information


November 2008

Echo Tops Product

Filter options

• Echo tops in 5000 ft increments (MSL)

– For 1000-ft increments use Echo Tops Tags

• Loops from -120 min to present in 5-min increments


• Update rate 2.5 min when looping Echo Tops only;5 min when looping with Echo Tops Forecast

Click to display where echo tops exceed radar

coverage


November 2008

CIWS Standard and Winter and Echo Tops Forecast

Precipitation Forecast Colors

Standard

Winter

Liquid Mixed Snow

Level 1a Level 1a Level 1a

Level 1 Level 1b Level 1b Level 1b

Level 1c+ Level 1c+ Level 1c+Level 2

Level 3

Level 5+

Standard precip forecast colors

Winter precip forecast colors

• All CIWS base products have an associated forecast product

Echo Tops Forecast


November 2008

Overview of CIWS 0-2 hr Forecast Algorithm

Canadian

Canadian

Weather Radar

NEXRADASR-9

TDWR Canadian

Satellites

LLWAS ASOS

Surface Weather

NOAANumerical Weather

Prediction


November 2008

Precipitation Forecast Product

• Loops from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min increments


• Update rate: 5 min

• Product performance may be adversely impacted in the mountains due to beam blockage

• Airmass storms can present challenges in a 2-hour forecast

Filter forecast levels


November 2008

Echo Tops Forecast Product

• Loops from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min increments

• 4-level forecast (<30kft, 30 – 34kft, 35 – 39kft, ≥40kft)


• Update rate: 5 min

• Product performance may suffer in the mountains due to beam blockage

Filter options

Echo Tops Forecast

Below FL 300

FL 300 to below FL 350

FL 350 to below FL 400

At and above FL 400


November 2008

Additional CIWS products

• Satellite

• Lightning

• Storm Motion

• Echo Tops tags

• Growth and Decay Trends

• Forecast Contours

• Verification Contours

• Forecast Accuracy

Lightning: White + indicates location of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over the past six minutes.

Satellite: Visible/Infrared satellite mosaic.

Storm Motion: Black arrows and blue lines showing movement of Level 3+ weather.

Echo Tops Tags: Echo tops labels in 1000-foot increments.

Growth & Decay Trends: Areas of growth (orange cross-hatched) and decay (dark blue) within the last 15 to 18 minutes.

Forecast on Precip

Verification on Precip

Forecast region on Precip


November 2008

RRoute oute AAvailability vailability PPlanning lanning TToolool Architecture

Route Database Display

CIWS Precipitation Forecast

RAPT Algorithm

RAPT departure route trajectory database

ETMS CDR PLAYBOOK

Departure route is defined by an airport, a passing fix, and an ending jet route

oras a CDR

Departure trajectories are based upon average aircraft location, speed and climb profile

CIWS Echo Tops Forecast

Pilot Wx Avoidance

Model

Model for ATC usage of airspace

WEB http://rapt.wx.ll.mit.edu


November 2008

Future Work

• CoSPA 2-8 hr Forecast (Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation)

• Lightning proxy for VIL and Echo Tops

• NWS fronts


November 2008

8 hour Forecast


November 2008

Comparison of CIWS and CoSPA Forecasts

CIWS CoSPA

Coverage (Spring 2009) CONUS Northeast*

Forecast period +5 min to +2 hr+2:15 min to +8 hr (The first 2 hours of the forecasts

come directly from and are identical to CIWS.)

Update rate 5 min 15 min

Loop increment 5 min 15 min

Loop parameters -2 hr to +2 hr -8 hr to +8 hr


November 2008

Example of CIWS Use of Lightning VIL


November 2008

Comparison of Merged Field with Radar Truth

(b)

(d)

(a)

(c)

Radar VIL CIWS 5min fcst

Blended radar & proxy VIL

Poor CIWS forecastdue to degraded radar VIL

Degraded radarVIL

Radar “truth”VIL at t+5 min

Important VIL features capturedby proxy VIL

CIWS forecastwould benefit from proxy VIL

(b)

(d)

(a)

(c)

Radar VIL CIWS 5min fcst

Blended radar & proxy VIL

Poor CIWS forecastdue to degraded radar VIL

Degraded radarVIL

Radar “truth”VIL at t+5 min

Important VIL features capturedby proxy VIL

CIWS forecastwould benefit from proxy VIL

• Improves precipitation intensity and echo tops heights estimates in areas where radar data are degraded (e.g., radar drop-outs and limits of coverage)

• Improves precipitation intensity and echo tops heights forecasts

• Improves safety


November 2008

Automated front Location

NWS provides CONUS front analysis

MIT LL tracks and advects fronts

Product could update every 5 min

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS AWUW November 2008 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Bradley...

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