“Missouri’s Changing Face: A Glimpse of Tomorrow” by Dr. Daryl J. Hobbs .

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“Missouri’s Changing Face: A Glimpse of Tomorrow” by Dr. Daryl J. Hobbs http://www.oseda.missouri.edu
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Transcript of “Missouri’s Changing Face: A Glimpse of Tomorrow” by Dr. Daryl J. Hobbs .

“Missouri’s Changing Face:A Glimpse of Tomorrow”

by Dr. Daryl J. Hobbs

http://www.oseda.missouri.edu

Change in Population 1980-2000

•Missouri’s population increased from 4,917,000 in 1980 to 5,117,000 in 1990 – an increase of 4.1 percent.

•Population increased from 5,117,000 in 1990 to 5,595,000 in 2000 – an increase of 9.3 percent – more than double the increase during the 1980s.

 

•However, national population which increased by 9.8 percent during the 1980s increased by 13.1 percent in 2000. There were 29 states whose population increased by a larger percentage than Missouri during the 1990s.

 

•Therefore, even though Missouri population increased by more than twice the rate in the 1990s than during the 1980s, it dropped from being the 15th most populated state in 1990 to 17th in 2000.

 

Missouri’s Metro and Non-Metro PopulationMissouri’s Metro and Non-Metro Population

SOURCE: USDC, Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing [2000 SF1; 1990 STF1]Table produced by: University Outreach and Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (Feb. 2002)

Number Percent Births DeathsNatural

IncreaseNet Migration

478,138 9.3 753,673 534,120 219,553 258,585

303,930 8.7 533,051 335,423 197,628 106,302

92,061 9.4 151,194 92,855 58,339 33,722100,232 5.3 289,492 181,937 107,555 -7,323111,637 18.3 92,365 60,631 31,734 79,903174,208 10.7 220,637 198,711 21,926 152,282

Change, 1990-2000 Components of Change, 1990-2000

Percent Change in Missouri Population by Percent Change in Missouri Population by Age Cohorts, 1990-2000Age Cohorts, 1990-2000

0.2

11.9

3.6

-13.3

29.6

10.9

3.2

21.4

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

SOURCE: USDC, Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing, Summary File 1 (2000); Summary Tape File 1 (1990)Produced by: The Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis, UOE [E.J. Cleveland, Nov. 2001]

Missouri Hispanic Population, 1990-2000Missouri Hispanic Population, 1990-2000

NOTE:* Newton is a metropolitan county but is included in the Top 8 agriculture producing counties** The eight Missouri counties having the greatest agricultural commodity sales also had the greatest non-metro Hispanic population increases during the 1990sSource: USDC, Bureau of the Census, "Census of Population and Housing"

2000 1990 Number Percent 2000 1990

Missouri 118,592 61,702 56,890 92.2 2.1 1.2

Total Metropolitan Areas* 88,137 49,315 38,822 78.7 2.4 1.5

NonMetropolitan Counties 30,455 12,207 18,248 149.5 1.5 0.7Top 8 Agriculture Producing Counties** 6,638 815 5,823 714.5 4.0 0.6Remainder of Non-Metro Counties 23,817 11,392 12,425 109.1 1.3 0.7

Change Pct. Of Total Population

Hispanic Population

Missouri’s Hispanic School Enrollment by School Year

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Enrollment

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Yea

r

SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, Core DataPrepared by: University Outreach and Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis – (OSEDA)

Chart Generated on 3.5.2002

5,62

9,70

7

5,59

5,21

1

5,56

1,94

8

5,52

1,76

5

5,48

1,19

3

5,43

1,55

3

5,37

8,24

7

5,32

4,49

7

5,27

1,17

5

5,21

7,10

1

5,17

0,80

0

5,12

8,88

0

5,11

6,90

1

4,800,000

4,900,000

5,000,000

5,100,000

5,200,000

5,300,000

5,400,000

5,500,000

5,600,000

5,700,000

1-Ju

l-90

1-Ju

l-91

1-Ju

l-92

1-Ju

l-93

1-Ju

l-94

1-Ju

l-95

1-Ju

l-96

1-Ju

l-97

1-Ju

l-98

1-Ju

l-99

April

1 20

00

1-Ju

l-01

1-Ju

l-02

Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Missouri

SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)

44,3

48

34,4

96

33,2

6340

,183

40,5

72

49,6

4053,3

06

53,7

50

53,3

2254

,074

46,3

01

41,9

20

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Jul '9

0 - J

ul '91

Jul '9

1 - J

ul '92

Jul '9

2 - J

ul '93

Jul '9

3 - J

ul '94

Jul '9

4 - J

ul '95

Jul '9

5 - J

ul '96

Jul '9

6 - J

ul '97

Jul '9

7 - J

ul '98

Jul '9

8 - J

ul '99

Jul '9

9 - A

pr '00

Apr '0

0 - J

ul '0

1

Jul '0

1 - J

ul '02

Change in Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Missouri

SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)

357,8

60

357,3

05

358,1

32

358,3

80

357,9

01

357,3

66

356,5

43

354,3

01

352,3

07

350,6

81

348,0

93

345,9

57

344,2

14

335,000

340,000

345,000

350,000

355,000

360,000

1-Apr-9

0

1-Ju

l-91

1-Ju

l-92

1-Ju

l-93

1-Ju

l-94

1-Ju

l-95

1-Ju

l-96

1-Ju

l-97

1-Ju

l-98

1-Ju

l-99

April

1 20

00

1-Ju

l-01

1-Ju

l-02

Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southeast Missouri Extension Region

SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)

555

-827-2

48

47953

582

3

2,24

2

1,99

4

1,62

6

2,58

8

2,13

6

1,74

3

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jul '9

0 - J

ul '91

Jul '9

1 - J

ul '92

Jul '9

2 - J

ul '93

Jul '9

3 - J

ul '94

Jul '9

4 - J

ul '95

Jul '9

5 - J

ul '96

Jul '9

6 - J

ul '97

Jul '9

7 - J

ul '98

Jul '9

8 - J

ul '99

Jul '9

9 - A

pr '00

Apr '0

0 - J

ul '0

1

Jul '0

1 - J

ul '02

Change in Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southeast Missouri Extension Region

SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)

744,6

81

737,2

73

728,0

89

719,6

82

708,5

11

697,4

47

685,0

20

671,9

24

655,3

25

636,6

26

618,9

47

604,8

53

591,2

77

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1-Apr-9

0

1-Ju

l-91

1-Ju

l-92

1-Ju

l-93

1-Ju

l-94

1-Ju

l-95

1-Ju

l-96

1-Ju

l-97

1-Ju

l-98

1-Ju

l-99

April

1 20

00

1-Ju

l-01

1-Ju

l-02

Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southwest Missouri Extension Region

SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)

7,40

8

9,18

4

8,40

7

11,1

71

11,0

6412,4

2713,0

96

16,5

9918

,699

17,6

79

14,0

94

13,5

76

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Jul '9

0 - J

ul '91

Jul '9

1 - J

ul '92

Jul '9

2 - J

ul '93

Jul '9

3 - J

ul '94

Jul '9

4 - J

ul '95

Jul '9

5 - J

ul '96

Jul '9

6 - J

ul '97

Jul '9

7 - J

ul '98

Jul '9

8 - J

ul '99

Jul '9

9 - A

pr '00

Apr '0

0 - J

ul '0

1

Jul '0

1 - J

ul '02

Change in Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southwest Missouri Extension Region

SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)

893,

846

890,

199

892,

975

895,

624

896,

149

893,

618

884,

363

873,

469

862,

658

852,

437

841,

168

830,

150

816,

670

760,000

780,000

800,000

820,000

840,000

860,000

880,000

900,000

920,000

'199

1'1

992

'199

3'1

994

'199

5'1

996

'199

7'1

998

'199

9'2

000

'200

1'2

002

'200

3

Total School Enrollment by Year, 1991-2003Missouri

SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/26/03)

Percent Change in School EnrollmentMissouri

SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/26/03)

5.630%

2.540%

0.098%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

'91 - '95 96 - '00 '01 - '03

3.6

-2.8-2

.6

-0.5

2.5

9.3

10.9

10.8

10.2

11.3

11.0

13.4

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

'91

- '92

'92

- '93

'93

- '94

'94

- '95

'95

- '96

'96

- '97

'97

- '98

'98

- '99

'99

- '00

'00

- '01

'01

- '02

'02

- '03

Annual Numerical Change in Total School Enrollment by Year, 1991-2003 (in thousands)

Missouri

SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/26/03)

0.54

0.500.

600.70

0.90

1.701.

70

2.20

2.40

2.402.

50

1.70

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

'91

- '92

'92

- '93

'93

- '94

'94

- '95

'95

- '96

'96

- '97

'97

- '98

'98

- '99

'99

- '00

'00

- '01

'01

- '02

'02

- '03

Annual Numerical Change in Total School Enrollment by Year, 1991-2003 (in thousands)

Southwest Missouri Extension Region

SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/27/03)

0.50

-0.8

0-1

.40-0

.30

2.00

5.10

5.00

4.20

3.20

4.60

3.30

6.30

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

'91

- '92

'92

- '93

'93

- '94

'94

- '95

'95

- '96

'96

- '97

'97

- '98

'98

- '99

'99

- '00

'00

- '01

'01

- '02

'02

- '03

Annual Numerical Change in Total School Enrollment by Year, 1991-2003 (in thousands)

East Central Missouri Extension Region

SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/27/03)

The Missouri Census Data Center has created a report that shows the just released definitions of Core Based Statistical Areas for Missouri. The CBSA's are a replacement for the metropolitan areas. We still have entities called MSA's (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) but the criteria for defining them has changed. It changed just enough to allow Jefferson City to now be classified as an MSA even though it does not have a central city of 50,000. Instead it has a "core area" with 50,000 people and it doesn't matter whether this population cluster happens to all fall within an incorporated place. Entirely new micropolitan areas have also been created based on the same concept as MSAs except the core area does not have to be as large. Missouri has lots of these.