Mississippi Fact Sheet

Population Growth, Millennials, Brain Drain, and the Economy

A Report to the Governor

Dr. Mimmo ParisiProfessor of DemographyDepartment of Sociology

Mississippi State University

January 19, 2018

2017 Population Growth by the Numbers

Population Growth = (Births-Deaths) + (Net Domestic Migration + Net International Migration)

Population Growth = (37,373 – 30,875) + (-9,885 + 2,087)

Population Growth = 6,498 – 7,798

Population Growth = -1,300

Population growth depends on multiple factors that includes numbers of births and deaths, net domestic migration, and net international migration. How each factor contributes to population growth must be seen in relation to the others. All factors must be examined together to provide an accurate picture of any population estimate. Also, all factors must be seen in the context of national trends to fully understand the magnitude of their impact on a given state. The estimates presented in the following slides provide detailed information on each factor that contributes to population growth, along with information on millennials, brain drain, and overall state economic indicators.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/

3

Mississippi Population, 2000-2017

2,848,353

2,852,994

2,858,681

2,868,312

2,889,0102,905,943

2,904,9782,928,350

2,947,8062,958,774

2,970,437

2,977,452

2,982,963

2,987,721

2,988,578

2,985,297

2,985,415

2,984,115

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

2,900,000

2,950,000

3,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Popu

latio

n

YearSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 4

This begs the question: why is the population not growing? The answer lies in two important factors. First, the state experienced a dramatic decline in births as a result of aggressive policies to reduce teenage pregnancy. These numbers are reported in slides 5-7. The population is also not growing because Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. In fact, the state experienced the least positive net international migration. These numbers are reported in slides 9-12. If Mississippi had not experienced a reduction in numbers of births and had experienced the same level of international in-migration as other states, Mississippi’s total population would have continued to grow. Another key factor is that only a few counties experience a significant negative net domestic migration (see slide 12).

The estimates for 2016 and 2017 indicate that the population declined by 1,300. This decline is within the estimation margin of error and it will be revised next year, therefore this number needs to be interpreted cautiously. It also means that there has been no substantive decline in total population. The only conclusion one can draw from these estimates is that the Mississippi total population has remained fairly stable.

Births by the Numbers

Annual Number of Births, 2011-2017

39,74639,430

38,505

38,71538,578

37,951

37,373

36,000

36,500

37,000

37,500

38,000

38,500

39,000

39,500

40,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Year

Overall Decline: -2,373

An important factor that needs to be accounted for in the population growth is the number of births. Mississippi experienced a declining annual number of births. As a result, Mississippi’s total population would have had a net positive growth if the number of births would have remained the same since 2011. Other indicators suggest that the decline in birth stems primarily from a strong policy to reduce teen pregnancy. These numbers are presented in the next two slides.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popest/state-total.html 6

Mississippi Teenage Pregnancy Rate

4.30

3.89 3.823.63 3.64 3.55

4.10 4.07 4.063.90

3.34

3.012.74

2.522.25

2.03 1.92

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Teen

age

Preg

nanc

y Ra

te

Year

Compared to the nation, Mississippi experienced one of the fastest reductions in teenage pregnancy. The teen pregnancy rate declined by 361 percent since 2000.

Source: Mississippi State Department of Health, Vital Statistics Bureau, 2017.https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/31,0,75.html

7

Birth Events of Female Mississippi Public School Students in Grades 6-12 by Abstinence Education Curriculum Type

1.68 1.77

3.37

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Abstinence-only Abstinence-plus No abstinence education

Perc

ent T

hat E

xper

ienc

ed B

irth

Even

t

Curriculum Type

Statewide: 1.9

Source: Mississippi LifeTracks, 2016.https://www.lifetracks.ms.gov/RequestAnalysis/ResearchStudies.aspx

Mississippi has adopted an aggressive abstinence program by providing two types of curriculum. Official statistics from the Department of Health show that these programs had a significant impact on reducing teen pregnancy in the K12 system.

8

Migration by the Numbers

Net Domestic Migration, 2016-2017

-190,508-138,195

-114,779-57,274

-27,515-25,793-23,984-23,089-22,270

-14,150-13,537-12,698-12,395-10,507-10,470

-9,938-9,885-8,613-8,205-7,437-6,653-3,854-3,493-2,724-2,086-1,050

-976-918

1,0241,1521,9763,8404,4844,6874,7185,3767,9418,666

17,56824,597

36,65337,97538,22740,23241,107

49,01563,11164,57966,051

79,163160,854

-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000New YorkCalifornia

IllinoisNew Jersey

LouisianaPennsylvania

MarylandMassachusetts

ConnecticutKansasHawaii

MichiganVirginia

West VirginiaOklahoma

AlaskaMississippi

WyomingOhio

New MexicoNorth DakotaRhode Island

NebraskaIowa

WisconsinMissouriIndiana

VermontKentucky

District of ColumbiaSouth Dakota

AlabamaDelaware

New HampshireArkansas

MaineMinnesota

MontanaUtah

IdahoColorado

OregonNevada

TennesseeGeorgia

South CarolinaArizona

WashingtonNorth Carolina

TexasFlorida

Domestic Migration

Stat

e

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/

Mississippi is not the only state to have a negative net domestic migration. There are 27 states that have experienced negative net domestic migration, and Mississippi does not have one of the largest declines. The takeaway from this graph is that Mississippi is in line with national trends.

10

2963288679331,2731,4891,5571,5781,9282,0872,2362,7222,7713,4994,1604,4754,7984,8535,0195,4476,1986,7036,8367,0147,3227,6967,7127,9578,0768,2689,97310,46911,410

16,20516,46017,758

20,16222,13123,179

25,87025,984

29,03133,36533,699

37,38945,298

56,942110,417

130,411144,165

164,867

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000

MontanaWyoming

West VirginiaVermont

South DakotaNorth Dakota

AlaskaMaineIdaho

MississippiNew Hampshire

DelawareNew Mexico

ArkansasDistrict of Columbia

AlabamaRhode Island

NebraskaUtah

South CarolinaKansasHawaii

IowaKentucky

OklahomaLouisiana

OregonNevada

MissouriWisconsin

ColoradoTennessee

IndianaArizona

MinnesotaConnecticut

North CarolinaOhio

MichiganGeorgia

WashingtonMaryland

VirginiaIllinois

PennsylvaniaMassachusetts

New JerseyTexas

New YorkFlorida

California

International Migration

Stat

e

Net International Migration, 2016-2017

Negative domestic migration is typically counterbalanced by international migration, which is mostly comprised of Asians and Hispanics. Unlike other states, Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. The state ranks as one of the lowest in the country.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 11

Domestic Migration: Gain and Loss to Other States 2016-2017

Like other states, Mississippi gains and loses population to other states in the union. The migration flow is not unidirectional, where people simply leave, but rather bidirectional, where some move out and some move in. These flows are reported in the top two maps, and clearly suggest that many people see Mississippi as a place to live and work.

Mississippi also experienced a positive net migration from 11 states. More people came to Mississippi from Illinois, Louisiana Michigan, New York, and West Virginia than residents moving from Mississippi to each of these states.

In contrast, 70 percent of the total negative net migration resulted from more people moving from Mississippi to Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, than residents from these states moving to Mississippi .Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016.

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls 12

Moving To Mississippi Moving out of Mississippi

Mississippi Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States

Who Gains and Who Loses in Mississippi, 2016-2017Moving from Other States

to MS Counties Moving Out of MS Counties

To Other States

Mississippi County Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States

Each county experienced residents moving in from other states, but also residents moving out to other states. Migration flows are state processes that touch all of the counties in the state, with some gaining and some losing population. Eight counties have gained population, with Desoto, Hancock, and Pearl River counties experiencing the largest gains.

87 percent of the total population loss in the state comes from a few counties, with Hinds county experiencing the largest loss followed by Lauderdale, Oktibbeha, Forrest, Washington, Harrison, and Lowndes counties.

Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016.https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls 13

Millennials by the Numbers

Share of Millennials (Ages 16-35) in State Population

23.624.424.925.225.425.725.825.926.026.026.026.026.126.126.226.226.326.426.426.426.526.626.626.726.726.726.826.826.826.927.027.027.027.027.127.227.227.327.427.427.527.927.928.028.028.528.728.729.0

30.130.6

37.8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

MaineWest Virginia

FloridaNew Hampshire

HawaiiNew Jersey

MontanaDelaware

ConnecticutNorth CarolinaSouth Carolina

VermontOhio

PennsylvaniaKentucky

WisconsinMichiganAlabama

South DakotaTennessee

ArkansasIdaho

MissouriMaryland

MinnesotaNew Mexico

IowaNevadaOregonVirginiaArizonaIndiana

MississippiWyoming

NationKansas

NebraskaIllinois

GeorgiaWashington

OklahomaLouisiana

Rhode IslandMassachusetts

New YorkColorado

CaliforniaTexas

AlaskaNorth Dakota

UtahDistrict of Columbia

Percent

Stat

e

When we look at the total share of the millennial population, Mississippi is right on the national average, suggesting that the state’s millennial population is stable.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t 15

Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers

82%

18%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Generation X (35-50) with their Children

Millennials (17-35)

Estimates on migration flow from the American Community Survey indicate that millennials have the least negative net outmigration in the state. This is consistent with current literature suggesting that millennials are not as mobile as other generations. The estimates from the American Community Survey indicate that the largest negative net outmigration in the state are experienced by people in the age group of 35-50, commonly known as Generation X. Estimates from the American Community Survey also indicate that baby boomers experience a positive net in migration, suggesting that this age group are growing in the state.

Source: American Community Survey, 2017.16

College Educated Millennials Leaving State of Residence

4%5%

6%6%

7%7%7%7%7%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%

9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%11%11%11%11%11%

11%11%11%12%

13%13%

14%14%14%15%

16%18%

23%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

CaliforniaTexas

LouisianaNew York

MinnesotaIllinoisFlorida

OhioWashingtonTennesseeNew Jersey

MichiganArkansas

PennsylvaniaMassachusetts

ArizonaKentucky

GeorgiaColorado

North CarolinaNebraskaOklahomaWisconsin

AlabamaOregon

MissouriWest Virginia

MarylandIndiana

MississippiNation

South CarolinaMaine

KansasDelaware

ConnecticutIowa

NevadaSouth Dakota

VirginiaHawaii

New MexicoUtah

New HampshireMontana

Rhode IslandNorth Dakota

VermontIdaho

WyomingDistrict of Columbia

Alaska

Percent

Stat

e

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017.https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t

Estimates from the American Community Survey indicate that Mississippi, like the rest of the nation, experiences a 10 percent outmigration of college educated millennials. Mississippi population patterns for its millennials are no different than the national trends.

17

Brain Drain by the Numbers

Students Working in Mississippi Within 1 Year of Graduating

69%

81%78%

74%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Community CollegeAssociate of Arts

Community CollegeAssociate of Applied

Science

Community CollegeCertificate

University In-State University Out-of-State

Perc

ent E

mpl

oyed

Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017.

A large majority of our students in the two and four year college systems choose to live and work in the state. In contrast, a very small number of our out-of-state students choose to live and work in the state. This is consistent with the estimates on migration patterns reported by the American Community Survey. The state experienced a average annual net growth of more than 4,000 individuals aged 18-19. The American Community survey also indicates that this net gain is counterbalanced by the loss of these students once they graduate.

19

In-State and Out-of-State Enrollment Growth

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

In-State Out-of-State

Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017. 20

Over the last 10 years, the number of out-of-state students has grown at a faster rate than in-state students.

Out-of-State Enrollment at Mississippi IHL Universities

Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017.

14.75

15.25

17.17

20.88

22.81

23.39

24.24

33.64

44.38

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00

MUW

UMMC

DSU

USM

MVSU

JSU

ASU

MSU

UM

Percent

21

This graph reports percentage of university total enrollment made up of out-of-state students. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the universities that attract more out-of-state students.

Economic Indicators by the Numbers

1,136,706

1,111,2551,104,225

1,096,802

1,105,9151,111,269

1,122,474

1,135,336

1,131,096

1,081,138

1,074,617

1,076,4881,085,748

1,093,581 1,102,603

1,114,379 1,124,854

1,128,924

1,040,000

1,050,000

1,060,000

1,070,000

1,080,000

1,090,000

1,100,000

1,110,000

1,120,000

1,130,000

1,140,000

1,150,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Jobs

Year

Annual Covered Employment, 2000-2017

Estimates from BLS indicate that the number of people employed is reaching pre-recession numbers. The state is only 6,400 shy of pre-recession numbers. Typically, the state enters recessions one year later, and the recovery is also delayed one year relative to the national trends. As a result, the number employed is expected to grow for the next few years.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017.https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv

23

Average Annual Wages Adjusted for Inflation(Constant 2017 Dollars)

Estimates from BLS indicate that wages, adjusted for inflation, have grown over the last 17 years. These estimates are based on 2017 constant dollars.

$36,788$36,497

$37,117$37,434

$37,983$38,475

$38,779$39,327$39,134

$39,518$39,071$39,153$39,018$39,026$39,111

$39,706$39,659

$40,532

$35,000

$36,000

$37,000

$38,000

$39,000

$40,000

$41,000

$42,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Aver

age

Annu

al P

ay (2

017

Dol

lars

)

Year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017.https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv

24

Mississippi General Fund Contributions

Contributions of income and sales tax to the general fund have experienced upward trends over the last 10 years. Individual income tax has shown an increase in tax payers, and the increase in sales tax shows an increase in disposable income as the result of real wage increases.

$1,000,000,000

$1,100,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,300,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$1,600,000,000

$1,700,000,000

$1,800,000,000

$1,900,000,000

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

Gen

eral

Fun

d D

olla

rs

Year

Individual Income Tax

$1,600,000,000

$1,650,000,000

$1,700,000,000

$1,750,000,000

$1,800,000,000

$1,850,000,000

$1,900,000,000

$1,950,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,050,000,000

$2,100,000,000

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

Gen

eral

Fun

d D

olla

rsYear

Sales Tax

Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue, 2017.http://www.dor.ms.gov/Statistics/Pages/default.aspx 25