Mississippi Fact Sheet

Population Growth, Millennials, Brain Drain, and the Economy

A Report to the Governor

Dr. Mimmo ParisiProfessor of DemographyDepartment of Sociology

Mississippi State University

January 19, 2018

2017 Population Growth by the Numbers

Population Growth = (Births-Deaths) + (Net Domestic Migration + Net International Migration)

Population Growth = (37,373 30,875) + (-9,885 + 2,087)

Population Growth = 6,498 7,798

Population Growth = -1,300

Population growth depends on multiple factors that includes numbers of births and deaths, net domestic migration, and net international migration. How each factor contributes to population growth must be seen in relation to the others. All factors must be examined together to provide an accurate picture of any population estimate. Also, all factors must be seen in the context of national trends to fully understand the magnitude of their impact on a given state. The estimates presented in the following slides provide detailed information on each factor that contributes to population growth, along with information on millennials, brain drain, and overall state economic indicators.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/

3

Mississippi Population, 2000-2017

2,848,353

2,852,994

2,858,681

2,868,312

2,889,0102,905,943

2,904,9782,928,350

2,947,8062,958,774

2,970,437

2,977,452

2,982,963

2,987,721

2,988,578

2,985,297

2,985,415

2,984,115

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

2,900,000

2,950,000

3,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Popu

latio

n

YearSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 4

This begs the question: why is the population not growing? The answer lies in two important factors. First, the state experienced a dramatic decline in births as a result of aggressive policies to reduce teenage pregnancy. These numbers are reported in slides 5-7. The population is also not growing because Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. In fact, the state experienced the least positive net international migration. These numbers are reported in slides 9-12. If Mississippi had not experienced a reduction in numbers of births and had experienced the same level of international in-migration as other states, Mississippis total population would have continued to grow. Another key factor is that only a few counties experience a significant negative net domestic migration (see slide 12).

The estimates for 2016 and 2017 indicate that the population declined by 1,300. This decline is within the estimation margin of error and it will be revised next year, therefore this number needs to be interpreted cautiously. It also means that there has been no substantive decline in total population. The only conclusion one can draw from these estimates is that the Mississippi total population has remained fairly stable.

Births by the Numbers

Annual Number of Births, 2011-2017

39,74639,430

38,505

38,71538,578

37,951

37,373

36,000

36,500

37,000

37,500

38,000

38,500

39,000

39,500

40,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Year

Overall Decline: -2,373

An important factor that needs to be accounted for in the population growth is the number of births. Mississippi experienced a declining annual number of births. As a result, Mississippis total population would have had a net positive growth if the number of births would have remained the same since 2011. Other indicators suggest that the decline in birth stems primarily from a strong policy to reduce teen pregnancy. These numbers are presented in the next two slides.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popest/state-total.html 6

Mississippi Teenage Pregnancy Rate

4.30

3.89 3.823.63 3.64 3.55

4.10 4.07 4.063.90

3.343.01

2.742.52

2.252.03 1.92

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Teen

age

Preg

nanc

y Ra

te

Year

Compared to the nation, Mississippi experienced one of the fastest reductions in teenage pregnancy. The teen pregnancy rate declined by 361 percent since 2000.

Source: Mississippi State Department of Health, Vital Statistics Bureau, 2017.https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/31,0,75.html 7

Birth Events of Female Mississippi Public School Students in Grades 6-12 by Abstinence Education Curriculum Type

1.68 1.77

3.37

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Abstinence-only Abstinence-plus No abstinence education

Perc

ent T

hat E

xper

ienc

ed B

irth

Even

t

Curriculum Type

Statewide: 1.9

Source: Mississippi LifeTracks, 2016.https://www.lifetracks.ms.gov/RequestAnalysis/ResearchStudies.aspx

Mississippi has adopted an aggressive abstinence program by providing two types of curriculum. Official statistics from the Department of Health show that these programs had a significant impact on reducing teen pregnancy in the K12 system.

8

Migration by the Numbers

Net Domestic Migration, 2016-2017

-190,508-138,195

-114,779-57,274

-27,515-25,793-23,984-23,089-22,270

-14,150-13,537-12,698-12,395-10,507-10,470

-9,938-9,885-8,613-8,205-7,437-6,653-3,854-3,493-2,724-2,086-1,050

-976-918

1,0241,1521,9763,8404,4844,6874,7185,3767,9418,666

17,56824,597

36,65337,97538,22740,23241,107

49,01563,11164,57966,051

79,163160,854

-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000New YorkCalifornia

IllinoisNew Jersey

LouisianaPennsylvania

MarylandMassachusetts

ConnecticutKansasHawaii

MichiganVirginia

West VirginiaOklahoma

AlaskaMississippi

WyomingOhio

New MexicoNorth DakotaRhode Island

NebraskaIowa

WisconsinMissouriIndiana

VermontKentucky

District of ColumbiaSouth Dakota

AlabamaDelaware

New HampshireArkansas

MaineMinnesota

MontanaUtah

IdahoColorado

OregonNevada

TennesseeGeorgia

South CarolinaArizona

WashingtonNorth Carolina

TexasFlorida

Domestic Migration

Stat

e

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/

Mississippi is not the only state to have a negative net domestic migration. There are 27 states that have experienced negative net domestic migration, and Mississippi does not have one of the largest declines. The takeaway from this graph is that Mississippi is in line with national trends.

10

2963288679331,2731,4891,5571,5781,9282,0872,2362,7222,7713,4994,1604,4754,7984,8535,0195,4476,1986,7036,8367,0147,3227,6967,7127,9578,0768,2689,97310,46911,410

16,20516,46017,758

20,16222,13123,179

25,87025,984

29,03133,36533,699

37,38945,298

56,942110,417

130,411144,165

164,867

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000

MontanaWyoming

West VirginiaVermont

South DakotaNorth Dakota

AlaskaMaineIdaho

MississippiNew Hampshire

DelawareNew Mexico

ArkansasDistrict of Columbia

AlabamaRhode Island

NebraskaUtah

South CarolinaKansasHawaii

IowaKentucky

OklahomaLouisiana

OregonNevada

MissouriWisconsinColorado

TennesseeIndianaArizona

MinnesotaConnecticut

North CarolinaOhio

MichiganGeorgia

WashingtonMaryland

VirginiaIllinois

PennsylvaniaMassachusetts

New JerseyTexas

New YorkFlorida

California

International Migration

Stat

e

Net International Migration, 2016-2017

Negative domestic migration is typically counterbalanced by international migration, which is mostly comprised of Asians and Hispanics. Unlike other states, Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. The state ranks as one of the lowest in the country.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017.https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 11

Domestic Migration: Gain and Loss to Other States 2016-2017

Like other states, Mississippi gains and loses population to other states in the union. The migration flow is not unidirectional, where people simply leave, but rather bidirectional, where some move out and some move in. These flows are reported in the top two maps, and clearly suggest that many people see Mississippi as a place to live and work.

Mississippi also experienced a positive net migration from 11 states. More people came to Mississippi from Illinois, Louisiana Michigan, New York, and West Virginia than residents moving from Mississippi to each of these states.

In contrast, 70 percent of the total negative net migration resulted from more people moving from Mississippi to Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, than residents from these states moving to Mississippi .Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax