MIPI DevCon 2016: Mobile Technology Expands to New Horizons

©2016TheLinleyGroup September14,2016

MobileTechnologyExpandstoNewHorizons

LinleyGwennap,PrincipalAnalyst,TheLinleyGroup

MIPI Developers Conference 2016


AboutLinleyGwennap

•  Founder,principalanalyst,TheLinleyGroup• Leadingvendoroftechnicalreportsonsemiconductorproducts

•  Editor-in-chiefofMicroprocessorReport• AuthorofrecentarGclesonARM,Broadcom,Intel,Marvell,MediaTek,Nvidia,NXP,Qualcomm,SiliconLabs,etal

•  Coauthorof“AGuidetoIoTProcessors,”“AGuidetoMobileProcessors,”and“AGuidetoAdvancedAutomoGveProcessors”

•  FormerCPUdesigneratHewleU-Packard

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Agenda

• Mobiletrends

• Wearablestrends

•  IoTtrends•  AutomoGvetrends

•  Conclusions

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MillionsofU

nits

SmartphoneShipmentsConAnuetoRise

•  SmartphonepenetraGonis69%ofallhandsetsandlevelingoff

• Mostremaininggrowthisatlowendindevelopingcountries

1.95billionsmartphonesin2020

Samsung

(Source:TheLinleyGroup)

Apple

ChinaTier1*

Other

*Huawei,Lenovo,Xiaomi,Yulong,ZTE

6.6%CAGR2015–2020

GrowthRate

Ann

ualG

rowth

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QualcommClingstoSmartphoneProcessorLead• Qualcommgainsathighend

• GalaxyS6(2015)usesnoQualcomm• GalaxyS7uses~30%Qualcomm

• MediaTekgainssharefromQualcomminlowend• LTEpricewarfavorsMediaTek

•  Spreadtrumgainsshareasmarketgrowsatlowend

•  Thesevendorsplus“internal”hold98%ofsmartphonemarket

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2013 2014 2015 2016f

Qualcomm

MediaTek

Spreadtrum

Internal*

*Apple,Huawei,Samsung(Source:TheLinleyGroup)

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CustomvsStandardIPCores

• ManyprocessorvendorslicenseCPU,GPU,andotherIPcores• E.g.,CPUsfromARM,GPUfromImaginaGon

• OthersdesigntheirowncorestoachievedifferenGaGon• Onlythelargestvendors,orthosethatservemulGplemarkets,canaffordthis

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AllStandardIP DesignsOneKeyIP DesignsMost/AllIPMediaTek Samsung(CPU) Qualcomm(CPU,GPU,DSP)Spreadtrum Apple(CPU)

Intel(CPU,GPU)Rockchip Huawei(CPU) Allwinner

Arrowindicatesrecentdevelopment


HeterogeneousCompute

• GPU,DSP,andothercorescanoffloadspecifictasks,improvingpowerefficiencyversusCPUsomware• SpecialcoresarecustomdesignedforcertainapplicaGons,e.g.graphics,video,audio,image(photo)processing

•  SharedvirtualmemoryaddedinOpenCL2.0• Previousmodel(top)requiredmanuallycopyingdatabetweenGPUandCPUmemoryspaces

• SharedmemoryallowsGPUandCPUtooperateonthesamedatastructures

• Thisapproachsimplifiessomwareandimprovesperformance

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GPU Memory

Main Memory

GPU CPU

On-chip Interconnect

Shared Memory

GPU CPU

Coherent Interconnect


5GComingSoon?

•  5Gisasuiteofdifferenttechnologies• Newbandsforhigherdatarates• Newprotocolsforimprovedserviceandreducedlatency• GreaterabilitytoaggregatemulGpletypesofconnecGonssimultaneously•  E.g.licensed/unlicensed,smallcell/macrocell,LTE/5G

•  3GPPRelease15willstandardize5Gwithdeploymentlikelyin2020• First5GsmartphoneslikelytodeployatthatGme• ServiceandlatencyguaranteeswillimprovesupportforIoTdevices(M2M)

•  Someoperators(e.g.Verizon)plantolaunch“5G”servicein2017• Usingasubsetofprestandard5Gtechnologiesforbroadbandserviceonly

5Gphase2

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Rel15 Rel16 Rel17

5Glaunch

5Gtrials

Rel14

Pre-5Glaunch

Pre-5Gtrials

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SmartphonesAddMoreSensors

•  9-axis+barometerforbestposiGoning

• MulGplelightsensors• E.g.proximity,ambientlight,color

•  Environmental• E.g.temperature,humidity

• Newbiometricsensors• E.g.fingerprint,heartrate

• NeedtocarefullymanagebaUerylife• UseDSPorsensorhubtotracksensors

(Source: The Linley Group)

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Agenda

• Mobiletrends



•  Conclusions

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ManyTypesofWearables

•  Smartbandslackdisplaysbuttracksteps,personalhealth• Fitbit($79+)andXiaomiMiBand($15)aremostpopular• Shipmentsofabout49millionin2015

•  SmartwatchesusedisplaytoprovidenoGficaGons,apps• High-endwatchessupportapps,typicallycost$299andup•  AppleWatchismostpopular;othersrunAndroidWearOS

• Low-costwatchessellforasliUleas$50• About24millionsmartwatchesshippedin2015

•  Alsosmartclothing,medicalwearables,earbuds,jewelry…

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LG Urbane (Android)

Apple Watch

Fitbit Flex


LeadingWearablesProcessors

• MostFitbitsuseSTMicroMCUs• SiliconLabsMCUinsomeversions

• MiBandusesCypressBluetoothcontroller• NotdesignedasanMCU,butitcanrunsimplecode

•  AppleWatchusesAppleprocessor• OriginallydesignedforiPhone

• MostAndroidwatchesuseQualcommSnapdragon• Snapdragonalsousedinsmartglasses,VRheadsets,andothers

• Mostlow-costwatches,bandsusestandardmicrocontrollers

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Apple S1 SiP


Wearables:CostIsKey

•  Successfulconsumerwearablesneed:• Desirableusecase(e.g.,noGficaGons,callscreening)• Easytouse(goodUX,compaGblewithPC/phone)• LongbaUerylife(mulGpledaysorweeks)• Pricepointbelow$100,preferablybelow$50

•  Phonemakerswillbundlewithphone• $50adderon$400phoneisalmostano-brainer

•  EasytotakeBOMcostwellbelow$50• Watchesusesmalldisplay,smallbaUery• Requireshighlyintegratedmixed-signalSoC

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martpho

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SmartWatchtoDominateWearablesMarket

•  AssumesApplereleasesapopularsmartwatchin2017

•  FollowedbypopularAndroidwatchesin2018

116millionwearablesin2016

Watch

Band

WatchvsSmartphone%

Other

38%CAGR2015–2020


380millionwearablesin2020

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Agenda

• Mobiletrends



•  Conclusions

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TheIoTConnectsClientstoNetworkstotheCloud

• MostIoTclients(oredgedevices)connecttotheInternetthroughgateways• ConnecGonsmaybewiredorwireless• Aclientsensesand/orcontrolssomeaspectofitsenvironment

•  Gateways(orhubs)providesecurenetworkaccess• Clientsmayfirstconnectto“fog”(alsoaCiscoterm)forstorageandreal-GmeanalyGcs

•  IoTservicesrunonstandardcloudservers• NohardwaredifferencesforIoTinthecloud

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WirelessSoCsTargetIoTClients,Low-EndWearables

•  SensornodesandfitnessbandsemployMCUsrunningRTOS•  SeveralMCUvendorsnowoffercompletewirelessSoCs

• IntegraGngCPU,memory,analog&digitalI/O,radio• Minimizescostandpower

• On-chipflashandSRAMissufficientforBLEand802.15.4• CPUfrequenciestypically<50MHz

• Manufacturingin55nmandlarger-geometryCMOSprocessesenablesintegraGonofRFcomponents

• MorecomplexWi-FiprotocolrequiresfasterCPUs,largermemories,typicallyoff-chipflash

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IPVendorsTuningProcessorCoresforIoT

• New,low-power32-bitCPUs(e.g.Cortex-A32)• GPUstrimmedforsmallerscreens,longerbaUerylife

• Examples:Mali-470,PowerVRG6020

•  CPU-IPvendorsacquire/developradiocores• BLE:ARM,Ceva,ImaginaGon,Synopsys• Wi-Fi:Cadence,Ceva,ImaginaGon

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CPU Memory

Radio Analog


Vision of the IoT in Five Years •  Infiveyears,smarthomeandsmartapplianceswillcomprisemorethanhalfofallIoTdevices• Home-securityandhome-automaGonemploymulGpledevicesperhousehold

• Severalsmartappliancesperhome

•  IndustrialIoTwillconGnuetogrowatasteadypace,comprising26%ofIoTshipmentsin2021

• Wearableswillmostlycomprisesmartwatches,with2-3yearreplacementcyclesdrivingshipmentsto20%shareofmarket

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Agenda

• Mobiletrends



•  Conclusions

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In-Dash,SafetyDriveAutomoAveICGrowth

•  In-vehicleinfotainment(IVI)in>50%ofcarsby2022• Caruserswantsmartphone-likeinterface• RearcameramandatedinallUScarsin2018

•  EvenfastergrowthinacGvesafety(ADAS)• Autonomousbraking(AEB)inallUScarsin2022• AcGvecruisecontrol,lane-keepingassistpopular• AvailableforasliUleas$1,000onHondaCivicLX

•  Autonomouscarscomingsoon• FirstproducGonvehiclesonsalein2018• RequiresmulGplecameras,othersensors

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IVISystemsIncreaseinComplexity•  In-dashsystemsomenusesmartphoneprocessors

• E.g.NvidiaTegra,NXPi.MX,TIOMAP(nowDRA75x)• IntelAtom,QualcommSnapdragonalsomakinginroads

•  Surroundviewofferssimulatedoverheadview• Processormustcombineimagesfrom4-6cameras• Requireshighprocessingperf,extracamerainputs

• Digitaldashboardaddsasecondscreen• IVIprocessortypicallydrivesbothscreens

•  IVIsystemmayalsocontrolrear-seatdisplays• Uptofour1080pdisplays,movingto4Kinnearfuture

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SurroundView(photobyBMW)

DigitalDashboard(photobyNvidia)


ADASRequiresComplexProcessing

•  SomeADASderivedfromsmartphoneprocessors• E.g.NvidiaTegra,NXPi.MX,TIOMAP• Needtoaddvision-processingenginetoboostperf

•  VisionprocessingrequiresmanypixeloperaGons• Needparallelcomputeof8-bitdatatypes

• NeuralnetworksomenusedforobjectrecogniGon• MayuseintegerorfloaGng-pointcoefficients

• MaycombinedatafrommulGplecameras,sensors• E.g.,radar,lidar,ultrasonic,infraredsensors

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VisionProcessinginUrbanArea

(courtesyofMobileye)

Lane-KeepingAssist(LKA)


TheUlAmateGoal:AutonomousVehicles

•  TeslaAutopilot,VolvoPilotAssist,etcavailablenowbutrequireconGnuousdriversupervision

•  IniGalautonomousvehicleslikelyin2018• Self-drivingincertaincondiGonsonly,suchashighwaydrivingandonlyindayGmeandgoodweather

•  Fordpromisesfullyautonomousvehiclein2021• Self-drivinginawiderangeofcondiGons

•  IncrementalhardwareBOMcostof<$5000by2022• Ahugewinfortaxiservices(versus>$30,000/yrfordrivers)• Forpersonalcars,insurancesavingscouldoffsetcost

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GooglePrototypeVehicle(photobyLinleyGwennap)

VelodyneVLP-16LidarSystem


Conclusions

•  Smartphonegrowthisslowing,butthemarketissGllhuge

•  Biggestopportunityinwearablesissmartwatches

•  IoTgrowthiscominginsmarthomeandsmartappliances

• Morethanhalfofallcarswillsoonhavein-dashdisplaysystems

• ManyoftheseIoTandautomoGvesystemsusingmobileprocessorsandmobilecamera/displaytechnology

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MIPI DevCon 2016: Mobile Technology Expands to New Horizons

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