Implications of Automated Vehicles for Long-Range Planning in the GGH

Michael Casey, Ministry of Transportation

Spring Pragma Conference

“Tomorrow Has Arrived: Cities and Autonomous Vehicles”

May 4th, 2017

Ministry of Transportation

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Overview

Context

Automated Vehicles and Transportation in Ontario

A New Approach - Overview of the Greater Golden Horseshoe Multimodal Transportation Plan

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Context

4 Greater Golden Horseshoe Neptis Foundation

Rapidly Growing Urban Region

By 2041, forecast to grow from:

9 million to 13.5 million people

4.5 million to 6.3 million jobs

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Urban Structure

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Urban development patterns since the 1950s have left the region with many communities where:

there is a spatial separation between the places where people live, work, shop and play

transit is difficult to deliver to low density settlement areas

high dependence on the automobile

low density development consumes prime farmland and green spaces

Travel Patterns

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Auto Driver Auto Passenger Transit Other

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f To

tal T

rip

s

Mode of Travel

All Trips by Mode GTHA Residents

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

Over 60% trips are made by auto drivers; Low transit mode split

A total average of ~18,000,000 weekday passenger trips were made in 2011

The result on the road and the environment…

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Congestion is estimated to cost the GTHA $15 billion annually by 2031

Transportation is the highest greenhouse gases emitting sector in Ontario

Environmental, Economic and Social Drivers

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Climate Change

Increasing and Aging Populations

Rapid Tech Advancement - in particular the broad adoption of automation

Urbanization - increased density and migration to urban centres

Global Geopolitical Volatility

Rising Emerging Markets

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Automated Vehicles and Transportation in Ontario

Definitions

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Connected Vehicle: uses any of a number of different communication technologies to communicate with the driver, other cars on the road, roadside infrastructure and the “Cloud.” This technology can be used to not only improve vehicle safety, but also to improve vehicle efficiency and commute times. Listed below are some of the benefits of connected vehicles - Center for Automotive Research, Automated Vehicle: Automated, autonomous, self-driving, and driverless vehicles all refer to a vehicle that is capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human input in some or all driving situations. NHTSA and SAE define multiple levels of vehicle automation, ranging from no automation to full automation (see next slide). Automated Vehicles may or may not include connected vehicle components.

SAE Levels of Automation

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Widely Available now

Ontario’s Interest and Recent Work on AVs

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Ontario would like to be a leader in AV technology development and prepare for widespread adoption:

Automated vehicles could contribute to a safer and more accessible driving experience, and depending on the adoption model/approach, could result in less congested roads.

MTO is interested in the AV sector as a transportation policy and planning authority, infrastructure owner and regulator. The government needs to ensure that AVs can travel safely on Ontario’s roads, and we will be working closely with industry, stakeholders and the public as we begin to shape the policy and regulatory framework related to AVs.

With a strong automotive sector and tech sector, Ontario is well-positioned to be a leader in the development and deployment of AV technology.

Ontario’s Interest and Recent Work on AVs

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Recent Work on AVs

Recent MTO work has focused on supporting the development of the AV sector, and preparing the way for the introduction of AVs.

On January 1, 2016, Ontario became the first jurisdiction in Canada to allow on-road testing of AVs - passed a regulation and announced a pilot to enable safe testing of AVs on Ontario’s Roads. To date, Ontario has approved four entities to participate in the pilot.

As part of the Minister of Transportation’s 2016 mandate letter, there was a commitment to work with the Ministry of Economic Development and Growth on establishing a centre of excellence for autonomous vehicles by 2018.

As part of this commitment, the Province’s recent 2017 Budget announced an investment of $80M over five years to create the Autonomous Vehicle Innovation Network, in partnership with Ontario Centres of Excellence. The network will capitalize on the economic potential of AVs and help the province’s transportation systems and infrastructure adapt to AV technology.

Ontario’s investment will support industry-led AV R&D projects; create sites across the province to develop, test and validate new technology, including a Demonstration Zone in Stratford; and attract and grow talent in the AV sector.

AV Benefits and Risks - Transportation

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• AV’s have the potential to be as disruptive as the original introduction of the automobile, with a range of potential benefits and risks, compared to traditional planning.

Potential Transportation Benefits

• Improved Safety • Improved accessibility/mobility

(particularly for the elderly/disabled) • Significantly reduced cost of auto

travel. • More efficient use of road capacity

(reduced congestion) • Reduced emissions (if electrified) • Better use of urban space (reduced

need for parking lots / on street parking)

• Improved modal connectivity (if connected)

Potential Transportation Risks • Increase in VKT travelled (reduced

cost of travel induces demand) • Increase in urban sprawl (less

incentive to live close to work) • Challenges for traditional transit

(particularly bus) • Challenges for active transportation

AV Adoption

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Implications for Long-Range Planning

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• High uncertainty and potential impact of AV’s lends itself to scenario-based planning

to manage help manage uncertainty, rather than traditional forecast-based planning.

Potential Framework for Considering AVs in Long-Range Planning

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A New Approach - Overview of the Greater Golden Horseshoe

Multimodal Transportation Plan

A New GGH Transportation Plan

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The Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) Multimodal Transportation Plan is Ontario’s first comprehensive study of its kind

The GGH Transportation Plan is aimed at providing

A strategic network that moves more people and goods efficiently and supports economic growth and job creation, and

A system that is resilient and can adapt to climate change and other major shifts in the global context

Plan will consider AVs as a disruptive technology

Hi-tech/ High

Growth

Spiritual/ Automated

Environmental Decline

Centralized/ Controlled

Voluntary

Preservation

Today 2041 2051 2071

Transportation/ Multimodal System

Land Use/ Urban Form

Extreme Future Scenarios

Desired Future

Planning Informed by Scenario Analysis and Land Use Vision

Integrated Plan Informed by: • global economy • technology trends • environmental

trends • demographics

Current Conditions

Traditional Approach:

• Assess wide range of potential futures • Plan towards 30-35 year land use objectives and desired future • Build in resilience to adapt to multiple futures

New Approach:

Updated Growth Plan

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AV Scenarios

Developing the GGH Transportation Plan

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We are here

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Next Steps

Spring/Summer 2017

EBR posting and seeking input on the long-term goals and objectives

Fall/Winter

Posting of draft future transportation vision for 2071

Plus posting of other technical materials

For more information and to get involved:

www.gghtransport2051.ca

Michael Casey, Manager Provincial Planning Office

Transportation Planning Branch Ontario Ministry of Transportation

416 585-7255 Michael.Casey@ontario.ca

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Thank You!