Mining’s legacy: thinking beyond the mine - Ian Satchwell, International Mining for Development...
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Transcript of Mining’s legacy: thinking beyond the mine - Ian Satchwell, International Mining for Development...
Mining’s legacy: thinking beyond the mine
Taking an integrated approach by developing lasting solutions, serving diverse interests, to support local community and economic development
Ian Satchwell
24 June 2015
2
• Investment attraction, efficient approvals, certain fiscal regime
• Economic reform and infrastructure partnerships
• Whole-of-government and whole-of-jurisdiction approaches to infrastructure planning
• Win-win-win approaches: partnerships, delivery of returns for all, responsibilities for all
• Using mining to facilitate broad-based economic growth
• Importance of technology, knowledge and skills
• Generating strong social licence to operate
Australian approaches to resources development
Source: Qantas
GROWING THE PIE
3
• Investment attraction, efficient approvals, certain fiscal regime
• Economic reform and infrastructure partnerships
• Whole-of-government and whole-of-jurisdiction approaches to infrastructure planning
• Win-win-win approaches: partnerships, delivery of returns for all, responsibilities for all
• Using mining to facilitate broad-based economic growth
• Importance of technology, knowledge and skills
• Generating strong social licence to operate
Australian approaches to resources development
Source: Qantas
GROWING THE PIE
4
• Rationale for growth in minerals and energy
• Seeking sustainable win–win–win outcomes
• Designing sustainable revenue and expenditure systems
• Maximising direct, indirect and induced benefits
• Building local enterprise and employment
• Activating human and knowledge capital
• Integrated approach to infrastructure to create opportunities for sharing, co-investment, private sector delivery
• Thinking beyond mining
Outline – infrastructure planning in the context of:
81 countries driven by resources in 2011— up from 58 in 1995
Rationale for mining growth: realising unmet potential of minerals and energy development
5
80% of resource-driven countries have per capita income levels below the global average; more than ½ of these are not catching up
But 69% of people in extreme poverty
are in resource-driven countries
90% of resources investment has been in middle- and high -
income countries
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Reverse the curse: Maximizing the potential of resource-driven economies, December 2013
~½ of the world’s known mineral and oil and
gas reserves are in developing countries
Rationale for mining growth: strong win-win-win outcomes
6
540 million people in resource-
driven countries could be lifted out of poverty
$11-$17 trillion of resources investment could be
needed by 2030—more than double the historical investment rate
Opportunities to share $2 trillion of investment in
resource infrastructure
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Reverse the curse: Maximizing the potential of resource-driven economies, December 2013
50%+ improvement in resource-sector competitiveness
possible through cooperative action
…if we get it right
7Source: CET/IM4DC/World Bank Mining Tax Course
Taking a broad view: policy and planning around the full mining value chain and lifecycle – and interactions
8
Natural Resources Charter Precept 3:
“Fiscal policies and contractual terms should ensure that the country gets full benefit from the resource, subject to attracting the investment necessary to realize that benefit. The long-term nature of resource extraction requires policies and contracts that are robust to changing and uncertain circumstances.”
Revenue from resources development is a key objective, but not the only key to sustainability …and trade-offs are inherent
Fiscal regime objectives• Maximise return to the State• Encourage investment• Optimal and sustainable tax base• Economic efficiency (optimal
exploitation of the resource)• Equity• Revenue predictability and stability• Fiscal regime stability and transparency• Administrative efficiency
Sound revenue design, administrative capacity and transparency are vital to sustainable revenue systems
Sound expenditure systems (including infrastructure planning and delivery) and administrative capacity are also vital
9
Indirect Induced
Direct Local manufacturer
or service provider Purchasing expenditure
for local goods and services
Payments to employees
Subsequent backward expenditure for local goods and services along the supply chain
Income of supply chain employees
Taxes paid by suppliers to the Government
Household consumption as direct and indirect employees spend their income within the local economy
Taking a broad view: Sustainable benefits from resources largely derived by growth of enterprises and employment
Economic output from mining operation
Local dealer
Income of dealer’s employees Taxes paid by dealer to the
Government
Household consumption as direct and indirect employees spend their income within the local economy
Adapted from Saipem 2011
In Australia, for every $1 of mining revenue, 40¢ is spent on goods and services:Reserve (Central) Bank
Resource economy in Australia: bigger than traditionally measured
Resource employment by industry 2011-12Share of total employment, financial year
Source: Rayner and Bishop, Reserve Bank of Australia, February 2013 10
Gross Value Added – resource economy 2011-12
Share of nominal GVA, financial year(has more than doubled in past 10 years)
18% of GVA • 11.5% directly from extraction and processing• 6.5% from other sectors providing inputs
10% of employment• 3.25% directly from extraction and processing• 6.75% from other sectors providing inputs
Employment growth: driven by mining, but more than just mining jobs – Western Australia example
Source: CCIWA: Building Western Australia’s Workforce for Tomorrow, June 2010
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Other
Administration and Support
Hospitality
Transport
Manufacturing
Education
Professional Services
Mining
Retail
Healthcare and Social Services
Construction
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000
Non Mining and Construction
Mining and Construction
Current workforce (2010) Additional workers until 2020
11
Employment growth by industry sector 2010-2020
Australian mining employment multiplier is 3 – 4Africa 7 – 10?
Case study: Australia’s biggest investment wave since the 1800s gold rushes – but still peaky and transitory
HOBART
Western Australia
Northern Territory
South Australia
Queensland
New South Wales
Victoria
SYDNEY
CANBERRA
MELBOURNE
BRISBANE
ADELAIDE
DARWIN
BROOME
PERTH
Offshore petroleum basins
WA & NT projects to 2016: USD220 billion+
Queensland projects to
2016:USD100 billion+
South West RegionAlumina, gold
Mid West RegionIron ore, gold, uranium, nickel,
Pilbara Region:LNG, iron ore, infrastructure
LNG, mining
Base metals
Bowen and Surat BasinsCoal, CSG, LNG,infrastructure
12
*Reserve Bank, Australia
Copper, uranium, infrastructure
PORT HEDLANDKARRATHA
Western Australia sub case: new investment will result in decades of increased production with lower volatility – great basis for economic leverage
* At ten year average prices
Historic and forecast production value* for WA’s key resources
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2005 2009 2013 2017
Val
ue in
$M
*
Gold
Iron Ore
Nickel
Oil/Gas
Alumina and Bauxite
~ 2.5 x 2010 value
$m
Source: ACIL Tasman analysis 13
Increased sustaining capital and
services
…infrastructure implications?
Source: Austmine
Mining Equipment, Technology and Tervices (METS) is now a very important industry sector to Australia
INCLUDING
$27 BILLION
EXPORTS
Activating human capital: a nation’s most precious resource – education and training institutions are key infrastructure assets
Education and training institutions: key
infrastructure assets
Complementary to traditional
infrastructure
Education and training ecosystem: public
sector and industry collaboration
• Crucial to dealing with challenges and opportunities of the 21st Century• Advanced education integrated with research• Build skills and knowledge capital
• Knowledge-intensive and knowledge creating• Adaptable and capable to deal with uncertainty and to engage with the
emerging new economy at home and abroad
• Public and private university and technical colleges; industry and company learning centres; regional learning hubs;
• Knowledge spillovers and though-career learning: trained workers move between projects and firms, taking skill set and culture with them
Integrated policy on industry, education and training – and integrated into infrastructure planning
Minerals Council of Australia 2020 Vision Infrastructure Project (2009): resources growth regions
21 growth regions
Current projects and production
Adequacy of current infrastructure
Growth scenarios for each region
Interaction of regions
Infrastructure gaps and needs to 2020
• Minerals & petroleum growth prospects remain strong
• Many infrastructure gaps now
• Worse in future – would inhibit development and international competitiveness
• Infrastructure for community and local economic development very important
• Need detailed region-by-region planning and provision to ● overcome current infrastructure deficits● manage for growth
2020 Vision Infrastructure Project: what was found
Infrastructure Australia – established 2008
• To drive the development of a long term, coordinated national approach to infrastructure planning, priorities and investment, focusing on transport, water, energy and communications
• Seven strategic priorities● Expanding Australia's productive capacity● Increasing Australia's productivity● Diversifying Australia's economic capabilities● Building on Australia's global competitive advantages● Developing Australia's cities and regions● Reducing greenhouse emissions● Improving social equity and quality of life in cities
and regions
• Infrastructure Australia http://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/ Strategic Infrastructure Plan for South Australia http://www.infrastructure.sa.gov.au/strategic_infrastructure_plan
• NSW State Infrastructure Strategy http://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/state-infrastructure-strategy.aspx
• Pilbara Planning and Infrastructure Framework http://www.planning.wa.gov.au/672.asp
• See also UK National Infrastructure Plan https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-infrastructure-plan
Australian and state approaches to infrastructure planning
Resources development clusters in Australia: what we have learned about infrastructure
HOBART
Western Australia
Northern Territory
South Australia
Queensland
New South Wales
Victoria
SYDNEY
CANBERRA
MELBOURNE
BRISBANE
ADELAIDE
PERTH
20
• KALGOORLIE
• DARWIN
PILBARA REGION
Chinese demandEnergy emergesFounded on iron ore
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 2010 2020
Australia’s most northern city – close to Asia. Service centre for mining, oil and gas, defence and marine. Population 110,000
Mining city since early 1900s – gold, nickel sulphide and nickel laterite – long life operations and evolving industry. Strong METS sector. Regional population 45,000
Kalgoorlie and Darwin: Infrastructure is key to success of mining, METS sector and local development
• Water, energy and transport infrastructure: supports mining, small business and community
• Business and community infrastructure: serviced industrial land, roads, energy, water, community facilities
• Attractive urban amenity: skilled resident workforce; sustainable demographic profile; • Education and training institutions: public and private secondary schools and VET
colleges; plus universities• Business services and financial institutions that understand mining and services• Supportive, light-handed government interventions, eg: partnerships with business to
connect customers and suppliers; small business support
21
Pilbara infrastructure planning changes
● Overall– framework for planning and all
infrastructure– cooperative planning between
levels of government and industry within agreed growth parameters
– proportion of royalty revenues fund infrastructure
● Ports– move to multi-user ports to allow
for investment diversity● Rail
– future multi-user railways with independent operator
22
Pilbara infrastructure planning changes (2)
● Land, housing and community infrastructure– long-term planning; coordination
between companies and government
– seeking to build sustainable communities
● Energy– government seeking to establish
Pilbara electricity grid● Water
– cooperation between companies and government
23
• Predicting the future is very difficult● a guiding overall vision is needed, with agility to respond to global forces● uncertainty (in part) can be managed though options approach
• Early planning and coordination of infrastructure is essential● partnerships needed between government – mining industry –
infrastructure providers – financiers• Efficient integrated production chains are vital for global competitiveness of
resource development operations• But monopolies on rail and port infrastructure can hold out new entrants• Community and service industry infrastructure as important as industrial
infrastructure• Through life infrastructure approach necessary to maximise utility of
infrastructure • Economic resource corridors provide holistic approach and options for
future development.
What we have learned from Pilbara experience
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• An economic resource corridor is a sequence of investments and actions to leverage large extractive industry development into broader economic development and diversification
• Investments (public and private) are prioritised and integrated around shared infrastructure and programs
• The approach is flexible and unbundles otherwise very large investments
• In each step, capacity is built within community and small-to-medium enterprises to realise benefits from emerging opportunities
• The integration of public and private plans, together with key environmental and social factors, has a clearly defined geographic footprint
• Corridors having economic diversity are designed to interconnect into a national pattern that will evolve organically across time with changing political and market dynamics.
World Bank Economic Resource Corridor concept
Maputo Development Corridor – projects completed
MAPUTO
Pande-Secunda Gas line. PPP Sasol completed
Coal-based Power Station2 transmission lines to Matola
completed
Liquid Fuels & Petro-chemicals: Sasol
Al smelter 500ktpaBHPB completed
Joburg-Maputo HighwayPPP- BOT completed
Port of Matola/MaputoUpgrades, PPP
Joburg to Maputo Railway line: Upgrade
GAU
TEN
G
Central Development Corridor
28
• Take a broad view of benefits: ● revenue● local business● inclusive economic development● skills and knowledge and spillovers● infrastructure co-investment, sharing● economic transformation – reshaping economies through growth
• Integrated infrastructure planning, prioritisation, and delivery● across the economy and across all classes of infrastructure● economy-enabling – especially smaller business● hard and soft; industrial to community; education and training
• Use experience of others and adapt to local context
Conclusion: Thinking beyond the mine (or rather, mining plus) – activating broad-based economic transformation
Contact International Mining for Development CentreWA Trustees BuildingLevel 2, 133 St Georges TerracePerth WA 6000AustraliaTel: +61 8 9263 9811Email: [email protected]
www.im4dc.org
The Energy and Minerals InstituteThe University of Western AustraliaM475, 35 Stirling HighwayCrawley WA 6009AustraliaTel: +61 8 6488 4608Email: [email protected]: www.emi.uwa.edu.au
The Sustainable Minerals InstituteThe University of QueenslandSt LuciaBrisbane QLD 4072AustraliaTel: +61 7 3346 4003Email: [email protected]: www.smi.uq.edu.au