MiniCourse Lecture10 Early Warning Systems

8/9/2019 MiniCourse Lecture10 Early Warning Systems

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Landslide risk mini-course

(Lecture 10)

University of Salerno (Italy) - Department of Civil Engineering

Universidade Federal de Rio de Janeiro

Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Geografia

May 2013, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

Prof. Michele Calvello

Landslide

early warning systems


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Early warning systems: a definition

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razil-Prof.MicheleCalvello(UniversityofSalerno)

UNISDR (2009)

The set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate

timely and meaningful warning information to enable

individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a

hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient

time to reduce the possibil i ty of harm or loss.

UNISDR (2009). ISDR: Terminology. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm


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UNISDR (2009)

UNISDR (2009). ISDR: Terminology. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm

UNISDR (2006). Developing Early Warning Systems: A Key Checklist. http://www.unisdr.org/2006/ppew/info-resources/ewc3/Checklist-english.pdf

A people-centred early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements

Knowledge of the risks

Monitoring, analysis and

forecasting of the hazards

Communication or dissemination

of alerts and warnings

Local capabilities to respond to

the warnings received

Early warning systems: a definition

UNISDR (2006)


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Di Biagio and Kjekstad (2007)

Landslide early warning systems: elements and activities

Di Biagio &, Kjekstad (2007). EarlyWarning, Instrumentation and Monitoring Landslides.

2nd Regional Training Course - Asian Program for Regional Capacity Enhancementfor Landslide Impact Mitigation (RECLAIMPhase II)

Four main activities


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Bell et al. (2009)

Landslide early warning systems: elements and activities

Bell et al. (2009). Integrative Frhwarnsysteme fr Gravitative Massenbewegungen (ILEWS). Monitoring, Modellierung, Implementierung. Klartext Verlag, Essen.

[retreived from: Thiebes B. (2011). Landslide analysis and early warning - Local and regional case study in the Swabian Alb, Germany. PhD Thesis, Universitat Wien]

ILEWS project (Integrative Landslide Early Warning Systems)


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razil-Prof.MicheleCalvello(UniversityofSalerno)Landslide early warning systems: elements and activities

Intrieri et al. (2013). Brief communication Landslide Early Warning System: toolbox and general concepts".

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13:8590. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-85-2013

Intrieri et al. (2013)


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razil-Prof.MicheleCalvello(UniversityofSalerno)The scale issue

Areal extent of system operation

Landslide early warning systems can be installed for

Single slopes

(LOCAL scale)

Large areas, Regions, States

(REGIONAL scale)

Intrieri et al. (2102)

Intrieri et al. (2102). Design and implementation of a landslide early warning system. Engineering Geology, 147148:124136.

Baum and Godt (2010). Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flow in the USA. Landslides, 7:259272.

Baum and Godt (2010)


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Case studies


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Regional landslide early warning systems in Italy

Italy > Campania Region

BURC (2005). Decreto del Presidente della Giunta Regionale n. 299 del 30 giugno 2005:

ProtezioneCivile Il Sistema di Allertamento Regionale per il rischio idrogeologico e idraulico ai

fini di protezione civile. Ruoli e compiti delle strutture regionali di protezione civile nellambito

delle procedure di previsione e prevenzione del rischio idrogeologico per il territorio regionale

Italy > National warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

Rossi et al. (2012). SANF: National warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Italy. Proc.

ISL-NASL 2012, Landslides and Engineered Slopes: Protecting Society through Improved

Understanding, Banff, Canada, 1895-1899.

Landslide EW strategy in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)


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UniversityofSalerno)SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

System name = SANF

National Early Warning System for Rainfall Induced Landslides

System development

The Italian National Department for Civil Protection (DPC), an Office of

the Prime Minister, asked the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological

Hazard Assessment (IRPI), of the Italian National Research Council

(CNR), to design and implement an early-warning system to forecast

the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Italy.

SANF forecasts the possible occurrence of landslides by comparing:

rainfall measurements and forecasts

empirical rainfall thresholds

Source: Rossi et al. (2012)


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System components



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Rainfall measures


Network of

1950 rain gauges

Every six hours, rainfallmeasurements from this network

are imported, validated, and

stored in the system.


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Rainfall forecasts


Three-day quantitative

rainfall forecasts are

generated twice a day by

DPC using the Italian Local

Area Model (LAMI).


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Rainfall thresholds


Intensity-Duration conditions

with landslide events

Rainfall threshold at 1% exceedance probability

Five critical levels

probability of landslide occurrenceLevel 1well below threshold

Level 2below threshold

Level 3on the threshold

Level 4above the threshold

Level 5well above threshold


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Critical levels


Every 12 hours, for each rain gauge, critical levels for the available rainfall

measurements and rainfall forecasts are calculated.

Critical level for rainfall measurements

Critical level for

rainfall forecasts


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Zones and delivery of alert


The National Department for Civil Protection (DPC) has divided

the Italian territory in: 129 alert zones.

Critical levels of rain gauges belonging to the same alert zone are aggregated

to define alert zone critical levels (every 12 hours). The system uses two

different aggregation criteria: the maximum and the modal values, respectively.

When the critical levels are determined, the system generates: synoptic-scale

maps of critical levelsfor the possible occurrence of rainfall induced landslides.

There should be a


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razil-Prof.MicheleCalvello(UniversityofSalerno)SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

From the conclusions of the article


Validation is a key part of the system, but is difficult to perform and the results

remain uncertain. Further validation of the rainfall thresholds, and of the system

algorithms is required.

The rainfall ID threshold currently used in the system was validated using a

reduced set of independent landslide information for a six-month period in the

Abruzzo region.

Activities for the collection of data on landslide spatial and temporal occurrence are

in progress. The data will allow for a better validation of the system forecasts. The

same data will also be used to define new regional and local empirical rainfall

thresholds for possible landslide occurrence.


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razil-Prof.MicheleCalvello(UniversityofSalerno)The regional landslide EW system of the Campania region (Italy)

Regional Civil Defense system > Campania region coordination center

Source: BURC (2005)

Coordinationcenter

Data gatheringData analysis

Informationactivities


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Data gathering

Source: BURC (2005)

Monitoring network (154 stations)

o 128 rainfall

o 54 river flow

o 56 temperature

o 13 humidity

o 5 air pressure

o 4 wind speed and direction

o 4 solar radiation

o 2 soil temperature

o 2 soil humidity

o 1 sea waves

The coordinator center emanates a dailyweather forecast for the next 3 days.

Weather forecasts

Example of weather bullettin


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Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

The weather alert zones are defined

as areas with homogeneous

meteorological events

8 weather alert zonesDecisional support

Combined use of gathered dataand weather forecast

Definition of weather alert zones

Definition of critical indicators

Classification of 6 risk classes for

the municipalities

Definition of hydrometer

indicators

Definition of rainfall indicators


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Brazil-Prof.MicheleCalvello(UniversityofSalerno)The regional landslide EW system of the Campania region (Italy)

Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

Decisional support





the municipalities


indicators


Local critical indicators (mm in 6, 12 and 24 hours)

only a part of the weather alert zone affected

Areal critical indicators (mm in 24 hours)

the whole weather alert zone affected

ordinary moderate high

ordinary moderate high

Two indicators of RAINFALL FORECAST

Three critical levels >

Three critical levels >


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Brazil-Prof.MicheleCalvello(UniversityofSalerno)The regional landslide EW system of the Campania region (Italy)

Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

Decisional support





the municipalities


indicators


Class 1

Area of river basins < 100 km2

The municipalities are classified in6 risk classes, the first five defined on the

basis of the morphology of the territory

(i.e. area of river basins) and the last one

on the basis of the presence of areas

susceptible to rapid flowslide events.

Rainfall indicators

(mm in 1, 3 and 6 hours)


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RiodeJaneiro,Brazil-Prof.MicheleCalvello(UniversityofSalerno)The regional landslide EW system of the Campania region (Italy)

Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

Decisional support





the municipalities


indicatorsDefinition of rainfall indicators

Class 2

Area of river basins = 100-500 km2






Rainfall indicators



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Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

Decisional support





the municipalities



Class 3







Rainfall indicators



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Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

Decisional support





the municipalities



Class 4







Rainfall indicators



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Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

Decisional support





the municipalities








Class 5

Area of river basins > 5000 km2

Rainfall indicators

(mm in 24 and 48 hours)


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Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

Decisional support





the municipalities



Class 6

Susceptibility to rapid flowslides






Rainfall indicators



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Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

Decisional support





the municipalities



Municipalities within classes 3, 4 and 5

Hydrometer level in rivers (cm)

Examples of hydrometer indicators thresholds

ordinary extraordinaryTwo critical levels >


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Data analysis

Source: BURC (2005)

Decisional support





the municipalities



Examples of thresholds for single rain gaugeMunicipalities within classes 1 and 6

Examples of thresholds for areal rainfallMunicipalities within classes 2, 3, 4 and 5

Three ALERT critical levels

Attention

Pre-Alarm

Alarm

Two indicators of MONITORED RAINFALL

attention pre-alarm alarmALERT critical levels >

attention pre-alarm alarmALERT critical levels >


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Examples of thresholds for single rain gauge:

Municipality of Sarno (class 1 and 6)

Source: BURC (2005)

Rain

gauge

ATTENTION PRE-ALARM ALARM

CLASS 1 CLASS 6 CLASS 1 CLASS 6 CLASS 1 CLASS 6

3 6 24 48 72 3 6 24 48 72 1 3 6 24 48 72

SARNO 35 42 58 68 74 46 56 78 90 99 38 55 67 92 108 117

SARNO

(SIAP)35 43 59 69 76 47 57 79 92 101 38 56 68 94 110 120

(hours)

(mm)

(mm)


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Landslide Early Warning strategy in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

Landslideriskmini-cou

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(UniversityofSalerno)

A two tier system

ALERTA-RIO

A2C2 Sistema de Alerta e Alarme Comunitrio para Chuvas Fortes

Officially created in 1996 by the GEO-RIO Foundation with the objective of issuing alert

bulletins, warning the populations for severe weather conditions which may induce flash floods

or landslides within areas of the city.

Operational 24 hours a day, seven days a week, with a staff of meteorologists, geologists,

engineers and technical-level personnel (only maintenance of the equipment is outsourced)

From 2010 it operates from the multipurpose Municipal Operations Center (CO-Rio)

Currently deployed in 103 informalcommunities(i.e. favelas) of the city

Based on few essential elements, some of which shared with ALERTA-RIO: risk zoning;

rainfall model and thresholds for early-warning; local and continuous measurement of rainfall;timely rainfall prediction; apparatus for alert delivery (i.e. sirens); definition and

implementation of evacuation procedures; education and training of the population.

Not designed to be permanent, as the sirens are supposed to be uninstalled from communities

when, as it is planned, the risk will be lowered to acceptable levels either through stabilization

works or by the removal of dwellings (depending on results from cost-benefit analyses)


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Landslide Early Warning strategy in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) > ALERTA RIO


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dOrsi et al. (1997)

Type and levels of alert

LANDSLIDE ALERT

(PROBABILIDADE DE ESCORREGAMENTO)

based on measured rainfall

RAINFALL ALERT

(CONDICAO DE CHUVAS)

based on rainfall forecasts

dOrsiet al. (2007). Rio-Watch: The Rio de Janeiro landslide watch system. 2nd Pan-Am Symp. Landslides, Rio de Janeiro, 1:21-30.

dOrsietal.(1997)


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Pluviometers: location



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Pluviometers: areas of influence



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Zones of alert

Baia de Guanabara

Jacarepagu

Baia deSepetiba

Zona Sul



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Thresholds for levels of alert

RAINFALL

LANDSLIDES

ALERTA



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ALERTA

ALERTA

Image: g1.globo.com

The alert procedure


d l d l d ( l)


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On the internet

http://www0.rio.rj.gov.br/alertario/


L d lid l W i i i d J i ( il) AL A IO


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On the internet


Rainfall annual reports


L d lid E l W i i Ri d J i (B il) ALERTA RIO


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Landslide annual reportsOn the internet


L d lid E l W i t t i Ri d J i (B il) ALERTA RIO


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Some preliminary analyses on

landslides and alerts


Datasets by:

GEO-RIO

Analyses by:

Luca Piciullo

(PhD student,

University of Salerno)

Year 2010

L d lid E l W i t t i Ri d J i (B il) ALERTA RIO


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A recent example: 17 May 2013, 6 pm

Rainfall aler t level in the four zones


L d lid E l W i t t i Ri d J i (B il) > ALERTA RIO


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Landsl ide aler t level in the four zones




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Landsl ide aler t level in the four zones

Areas of influenceof pluviometers


Landslide Early Warning strategy in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) > A2C2


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Landslide risk zoning of Rio de Janeiros communities, i.e. favelas (Geo-Rio, 2010)

117 communi ties

with houses inside

high landslide risk areas

Levels of landslide risk

High

Medium

Low

A2C2 system installed

(between 2011 and 2012)

in 103 communities




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166 alarm stations

http://websirene.rio.rj.gov.br/portal/portal

86 sirens

with pluviometers

80 sirens




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The alert and alarm procedure

Alert

and Alarm

Source: Rio Prefeitura (2012). Plano de contingenciaverao 2012/2103.http://www.formulariosonline.com.br/sitedc/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=109&Itemid=65

Rainfall Threshold

1 h 40 mm/h

24 h 125 mm/24h (> 6 mm/h)

96 h 200 mm/96h (> 40 mm/24h)




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Implementation of the system: information strategy

Source: Rio Prefeitura (2012). Plano de contingenciaverao 2012/2103.

Posters and leaflets

Calendars

Cartoons

Simulations of evacuation




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Implementation of the system: simulations of evacuation

Source: Rio Prefeitura (2012). Roteiro de implementacao do A2C2.




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24 h threshold

the

alert

wasnot

given

(in this

case).




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On the internet


MiniCourse Lecture10 Early Warning Systems

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