Mind Map: Power-Gen Africa #PGAfrica 2015 Conference David Lipschitz 16th July 2015 Day 2
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Transcript of Mind Map: Power-Gen Africa #PGAfrica 2015 Conference David Lipschitz 16th July 2015 Day 2
PowerGen 2015David Lipschitz16th July 2015
Start here. E&OE.
Capacity BuildingPanel Discussion
Chairperson
Louis Jestin
Panel
Phindile MooketseEskom: MedupiTechnical Plant Manager
Johan PrinslooPower Station Manager
GP technologies
The Adopted ContinualTraining Model
70% on the job
20% classroom training & reading
10% mentoring& coaching
Even during ashift itself
The empowered powerstation operator
Has opportunities tosupervise the siteRequires operating
priority principlesConservative decisions looking at the
safety & security of their plant &people before production
Must be empowered tomake decisions
Michael Levesque(Sub-speaker)
Program Manager, Consultation, design & implementation
MentoringTo create a questioning mindset
[my latest thinking re SA's kids who do Life Skills for school, but not Life Sills for Life after school]
A systematic structuring ofmentoring & task analysis
Eg the USAshipping fleet
An operator can operate the nuclearreactor in a nuclear submarine without
having to be a nuclear engineer
Requires [a MacDonalds type]Business Model which isrepeatable over and over
[And requires ongoing "flyinglicense" type recertification]
"The operatoras leader"
High PerformanceUtility Model
Francis PetersenThe Challenge of the Skills Shortage
in South Africa
Capacity buildingincludes infrastructure &
appropriate skills
The need for an Integrated EnergySystem which is cost effective,
sustainable & socially beneficial
SA needs
REGas CHP
The SA Ten-YearInnovation Plan
35% of techgraduates by 2030
30% enrollment
How manypeople finish?
54% finish 4 yeardegree in 5 years
Q: We should have an A level &Life Skills "gap year"
A: The stigma ofa gap year
Rather stream the students and providesupport for them at school
Look at aptitude & interest
1 SETs per x number of acountry's population
3200 South Africa227 Brazil
331 UK455 Australia
Doctorates and ResearchChairs for innovation
EPPEI
Eskom Power PlantEngineering Institute
Also needknowledge
transfer
SET Science, Engineering,Technology graduates
Dr Jens Reich (STEAG)PHD in mechanical engineering
Masters in economic engineering"The decision tree for capacity building for
power generation in (South) Africa"
Capabilities
Development costsTo bring a project to the start
$2 mil tillprojectstart-up
$7 mil untilfinancial close
Time schedule
Concept6 mint's
Licensing,contracting,
financing5 years
Erection8 years
Operation50 years
Investment
How to choose theright project,
Find out who you are
Developer, agent,facilitator, operator,
investor
IPP is long-term andresource. Consuming
Get advice up front; save in the Long-termSecond mover
Don't follow mega trends, set trends,not necessarily front mover
Do not give up, keep yourentrepreneurial spirit - Africa needs it
Louis JestinEDF Senior Manager
Eskom EPPEI
Big skills shortage
Needs specialinvestment
Eskom build provides aunique opportunity to
develop the skills required
EPPI objectives
Power Plant post grads
UniversityLocalisation of
knowledge
8specialization
Centres
EE, combustion engineering, emissions control, materials science,
asset mgt, high & low voltage, RE
Projects
P&T, CM, ENV, PLCM, CLCM,Smart Grid, HDVC integration
into AC grid, PSS
At different universitiesaround SA, to start 2017
344 hours ofcourse delivered pa
plus research topic after 1st 2 blocks
3 Research Clusters
Power Eng, etc
Phases
5 student intakes2012 to 2017
Pan-Africa self-sufficientinstitute by 2022
Discussions
Malcolm Fawkes
Desalination and 5 MW
37 years atEskom:
education
Policy, Regulation & PrivatisationA Panel Discussion
Session Chair
Melusi MaposaSmart grid services lead
Accenture
SpeakersAngeli Hoekstra
Power & Utility Leader AfricaPWC
Big Transformation Centralised or not?[Create lots of new grids
and they will automaticallyintegrate in time.]
[Potential problems]
[Tariff integration]Disruption
Local energy systems
Command & control
Ultra distributedgeneration
Supergrids
"A disruption profile"
Resulting in differentmarket models & business models
Pure play merchant
Gentailer
Grid develop
Network manager
Product innovator
Value added enabler
Vrtual utility
Partner of partners
Global forces
Demographic change
Economic power shifts Urbanisation
Climate change andresource scarcity
Technology
Africa should leapfrog, to createaffordable & reliable electricity
Mike MulcahyGreencape
Atlantis DTI SEZ
At least 49 policies & rules inconflict with each other
My Question
Q: IDZ vs SEZ, Skills,particularly related to
Atlantis
A: A lot of the legacy industrieshave the fundamental skillsneeded for the RE industry
Seamus FitzgeraldESB Utility subsidiary
Dublin
History[A really good example
of iterative development]1929 Rural
Electrification
[Exactly what I've beensaying about micro-gridintegration for Africa!]
1987 Coal
2003 Wind
2910 EV
2013 Market Integration
2015 Digitization
[email protected];[email protected]
Additional sub-speaker Richard BadgeDeputy CE
Volta River AuthorityGhana
Problem of availablefuel in Ghana
Lolu AdubifaLavayo Energy
Nigeria
158 nil people; 2%population growth
Ghana 1000 &Nigeria 10000
GDP $500 bil 4GW; SA$350 bil 44GW
2 Privatisation Strategies
PHCNOnly existing plants
$2.6 bil raised
Up to 49% ownership
CSFs
Political support
Transactionadvisory servicesIt took 2 years
Transparency inthe process
Resolution oflabour issues
Guaranteed &Securitisation
Drafting the industry & transactioncontractual documents
New discos must make significant reduction in AggregateTechnical & Commercial losses from the current high
levels of over 50% in the next 5 years, as well as extendaccess to new customers
Including corruption
Including lack of newdevelopment for 20 years
NIPPSome plants are under construction
$5.8 bil raised
Up to 80% ownership
Problems
Gas supply for the power stations
Litigation from thelosing bidders
Dealing with legacy issuesat the power plants
$2.5 billion pa needed formaintenance of the transmission grid
Opportunities
10 - 20 MWMicro-grids with
storage
My questions(Not asked, created during talk)
How to create acompetitive
environment? How to get private sectorparticipation & not just talk about it?
How to stop governments frommaking rules to suit their own
business interests?
How to stop governments from putting in long term rules and thencanceling them putting local business & investors out of business?For example: the 1 million solar water heater program cancelled in
South Africa when it got to about 100,000. And by the time governmentrealized their mistake, a South Africa's biggest SWH company, whichhad been in business for 25 years, long before the incentives started,
was out of business. An example of major localisation failure.
How to stop the "DrHermann Scheer Effect"?
In The Solar Economy, HS says that governmentssometimes make policy and then their SOCs prevent
the policy from being implemented.
Eg: Enel, EskomUSA: 2 laws, 3 standards,
1 document for Homeowner EG
EG: EmbeddedGenerationSA: 15 laws; 10 standards; 3
documents for Homeowner EG
IDZ vs SEZ: whyshould the SEZ work?
How to address the SEZ skills gap inSouth Africa?
SEZ "country within acountry" rules?
How to get the Utility tobecome the ISMO?
And create an EnergyStock Exchange?
Examples of thisBusiness Model
I.e. Public Ownership of grids with both public & private participation on the grids
Railways
Telephone Air-lanes
Telecommunications
Internet
Started with Arpanet
How to get countries|communities towork together, intra & inter?
My suggestions
Tax & other IPPstructures
Investment costs forrooftop owners
Before tax & beforeVAT investments
OMI costs before tax
To help with not having toraise the general tariffs to
unaffordable levels
Invokes private finance
How to lowerbarriers to entry?Eg tariff structures
Eg TOU
Energy StoragePanel Discussion
Chairperson
David Lipschitz
Programmer &Keynote Speaker
Panel
Mu'azzam KippieEskom
Non-minimum problem in Hydro
Improve "Frequency controlperformance"
Frequency is a result of themismatch in the demand &
supply of electricity
Open the valves to helpcontrol this problem
Eg after agenerator trip Instantaneous reserve, for up to 10
minutes, 180 MW at Palmiet, Drakenberg, Gariep & others
Ingula to be added
50 Hz
Pumped storage - forpeaking & tfr control
1400 MW total
Non-minimumphase behavior
Flownex software
Solve the problem byTransient droop tosolve the problem
Open the guide vanes in adifferent way (a parabolic manner) or slower
Opposing ramps
Did you modelthe turbine?
Wikus van Niekerk & Frank DinterStellenbosch University & STERG
CSP with Storage
Age of power stations
Our newest is 15 years oldWe have a 35 GW gap
CSP
The oldest functioningplant is 35 years old
Can store at scale:100 mWh, etc
Solar tower is more efficient thanTrough, but you have to build the
tower & the heliostats
The top plant ran 24 hoursa day for 35 days!
Dispatchable power
Advantages
Ride through
You can store and use dayslater with 98% efficiency
Voltage &frequency
control
Can store & useat the peak
CSP shouldreplace nuclear and Peaking Power Plants
Localisation is best with CSP, for amanufacturing industry
Steel, piping, pressurevessels already here
Low barriers to entry in CSPmanufacture, especially when
compared with Nuclear
Capacity?
50 km by 50 kmground coverage
250 Solana type plants for what we produce now
SA 3000 kWh per sq meter;Spain 2100
Storage
Molten salt
Cost
R1.46 and 2.7 xat peak time
Ie compete withthe OCGT's
Unsubsidized CSPis possible now
Problem
In Northern Cape not enough gridcapacity to evacuate the power
Solar Thermal EnergyResearch Group
Concentrating.sun.ac.za
Precious HusvuEskom
PV with Compressed Air Storage
Also Dr Davidson& Dr Adams
Why should do DR and whatare the alternatives?
Site nearPietersburg /Polokwane
30 MW PV
Compressed airIn old depletedgad reservoirs
Heat energymust be stored
In Germany since 1971
Inverter
Modularmultilevelconverter
Verification &Validation of project
Wereexpectations
met?