Millennium treffit - Innovaatioilla ilmastomuutosta vastaan

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J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council 30.3.2016

Innovaatiolla ilmastonmuutosta vastaan

1. Climate Leadership Council

2. The status of the climate change 3. Paris agreement and next phases

4. Innovation needs and opportunities

Contents

J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

Members:

Market cap > 46% of Helsinki Stock Exchange Gross sales > 90 billion euros

Climate Leadership Council

Vision 2030

Forerunner companies are leading other companies and organisations with their example to move towards operations that lead to carbon-neutrality and sustainable use of natural resources, both in Finland and abroad. They have succeeded in creating competitive solutions to global environmental challenges.

Strategy

The members of CLC are systematically developing their operations and actions, and thereby encouraging other organisations, communities and decision-makers to join. CLC is also collecting best practices and sharing information.

Board 2015-2016

Pertti Korhonen, Chairman (Outotec Oyj) Mikko Kosonen, Vice-Chairman (Sitra) Henrik Ehrnrooth (Caverion Corporation) Taavi Heikkilä (S-Group) Antti Herlin (KONE Oyj) Pekka Lundmark (Fortum Oyj) Timo Ritakallio (Ilmarinen)

Theme areas • Carbon price: Developing global carbon pricing

mechanisms

• Investors: Developing climate and carbon risk analysis and management methods

• Carbon footprint and handprint: Reducing organizations’ carbon foot print

• Transport and mobility: Developing low-carbon strategies and solutions

• Construction and living: Developing low-carbon strategies and solutions

• Renewable energy systems: Developing renewable energy, energy storage and demand-side management solutions

New theme areas can be established based on proposals from members.

Projects

Each year, CLC selects a few significant projects to develop and promote. Currently, these include:

• Development of building blocks for a low-carbon roadmap for companies

• Development of the Helsinki metropolitan area into a Smart & Clean reference area

• Support for the World Bank’s Carbon Price initiative

• Development and piloting of analysis methods for climate and carbon risk

• Collaboration with relevant national and international partners




Contents


All Figures © IPCC 2013 Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature

might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century.


The status of the climate change


The year 2014 was the warmest

ever recorded by humans. Then

2015 was warmer still. January

2016 broke the record for the

largest monthly temperature

anomaly. February didn’t break

climate change records – it

obliterated them. Regions of the

Arctic were were more than 16C

warmer than normal and the

surface of the Earth north of the

equator was 2C warmer than

pre-industrial temperatures.

https://theconversation.com/el-nino-could-mean-2015-is-even-hotter-than-last-years-scorcher-35837



https://theconversation.com/we-have-12-months-until-the-next-hottest-year-memo-will-we-be-ready-53460

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/january-global-temperature-record-20035

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/03/01/february_2016_s_shocking_global_warming_temperature_record.html

Wide systemic

impact

Climate change is the biggest and most systemic risk

Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2016 27

Highest impact

Zimbabwe has suffered $1.6 billion in damage from its

2016 drought. This is approximately 12% of their GDP. (Image credit: Ziniyange Auntony/AFP/Getty Images.)

Fiji suffered $470 million in damage from Category 5 Cyclone Winston's impact in February 2016. ~10% of their GDP. (Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.)

Vietnam: $6.7 billion damage from its 2016 drought. 4% of Vietnam's GDP (Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images) 2016


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Winston

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Winston

https://www.facebook.com/MyFijianImages/photos/a.1033938516629105.1073741894.582619698427658/1033939236629033/?type=3&theater





Source: IPCC J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

BIOVERSITY PROBLEMS


Source: IPCC

The graph charts the maximum

speed that different species can

move against how fast they must

move, shown on the right.

Many species fall below the line

of the worst-case scenario (the

dotted red line marked “RCP8.5

flat areas”), which means they

have no chance of survival.

Only some species of split-hoofed

mammals, carnivorous mammals,

plant-feeding insects and

freshwater mollusks even stand a

chance.

Carbon Tracker;

<”60$/barrel oil” is

burnable

14

Increasing amount of investors are divesting fossil fuels or actively impacting fossil companies to have 2 C targets


Valuations illustrate the end game of fossil energy has begun



“It is not a coincidence that immediately prior to the

civil war in Syria, the country experienced the worst

drought on record. As many as 1.5 million

people migrated from Syria’s farms into

Syria’s cities, and that intensified the political

unrest that was beginning to brew. Now, I’m

not telling you that the crisis in Syria was

caused by climate change. No, obviously, it

wasn’t. It was caused by a brutal dictator who barrel-bombed, starved,

tortured, and gassed his own people,” Kerry said. “But the devastating

drought clearly made a bad situation

a lot worse.”




Contents


TEMPERATURE AND LONG-TERM GOAL - Capping global temperature increases since pre-industrial times to 1,5-2C degrees.

- Means emission reduction between 40 percent to 70 percent by 2050

compared to 2010 levels.

REVISION MECHANISM - Countries will need to update their current pollution-reduction pledges by 2020

and then do so every five years.

CARBON MARKETS - A mechanism that would allow credits could be used for internationally.

TRANSPARENCY - A framework for monitoring, measuring and verifying emissions reductions.

FINANCE - The deal obliges developed nations to help developing countries pay for reducing

pollution and adapting to the impacts of climate change. The next goal will be to

increase the $100 billion a year that they had previously agreed to provide by 2020.


In INDC or current emission scenarios a >50% chance of keeping +2C target is lost 25-28 years

World Energy Outlook 2015, Dr. Fatih Birol,

IEA Executive Director. Presentation in Tokyo 21.12.2015. J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

Due to the long time horizon of the investments, 1,5 or well below 2C

targets should be set ASAP

40 years - 40% reductions (1%/y): ”low hanging” changes first

20 years - 55% reduction (2,7%/y): more difficult changes

1,5-2,0C targets should be set in 2018 and also drivers for the change

When knowing that the change will be massive, we should postpone it to 2030-2050, when it

may become undoable.





Contents


Renewables


Futurist Ray Kurzweil:

solar power has been

doubling every two

years for the past 30

years — as costs have

been dropping. He says

solar energy is only six

doublings — or less

than 14 years — away

from meeting 100% of

today’s energy needs.

Developing countries invested more

than high-income countries: China 36%

of the global total. India increased by 22%

and US by 19%. In Europe the investments

in renewables fell by 21%.

https://ir.citi.com/0VFn8pAlSfpGN2Wvrl9Xyw0pCPR9RMYnkFXt9PUmplv0ocaKEg9%2f4rbcivOrB9MHJZN%2bPX%2f51Ew%3d






Energy efficiency


World Energy Investment Outlook, Special Report. IEA

2014.

Storages

J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council 25

Carbon sinks


Carbon is the backbone of life on Earth.

We are made of carbon, we eat carbon

and our civilizations - our economies, our

homes, our means of transport - are built

on carbon.”

Some of the carbon is in motion. Most of it is locked

away in rocks and underground in deposits of coal, oil

and natural gas. The rest moves through the Earth’s

“four spheres”: the geosphere, hydrosphere,

atmosphere and biosphere, also known as soils,

water, air and living things.

Ocean’s are the biggest sink.

They currently soak up 48% of

the CO2 emissions. Recent

research has found, that the

carbon-storing ability of oceans

is declining, in part because they

are warming and cold water is

better at holding CO2. That

makes our land-based sinks –

those forests, soils, wetlands

and grasslands — even more

important.

Carbon cycle is not in balance.

During the last 200 years of fossil

fuel combustion have put more

carbon into the atmosphere than

the carbon cycle can handle. The

excess of CO2, lingers in the

atmosphere like a blanket around

the Earth, trapping heat and

producing global warming.

The most fundamental objective to keep climate change at adaptable levels is to restore the Earth’s carbon balance.

DOE and several of its national laboratories estimated in 1999 that natural carbon sinks worldwide were removing about 2

gigatons of carbon annually from the atmosphere. The labs concluded that an ambitious international effort could

remove five times that much carbon from the atmosphere, more than 10 gigatons each year. Today, natural carbon sinks

store about 16% of the United States’ annual CO2 emissions from fossil energy combustion.

Healthy soils hold more moisture and

are more productive. Moving animals

from pasture to pasture before they can

over-graze allows grasslands to host the

pollinators critical to 75% of the word’s

food crops. Wetlands retard flooding,

recharge groundwater and provide

another type of wildlife habitat. Coastal

marshes reduce damages from storm

surges. Urban forests and green spaces

reduce flooding, provide an inexpensive

way to control storm water and reduce

the urban heat island effect that causes

illnesses and deaths. Rural forests hold

raindrops and soils in place, preventing

erosion that would otherwise pollute

rivers and streams.

http://www.climate.org/topics/climate-change/ocean-uptake-climate-change.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/07/01/meet-the-gigaton-the-huge-unit-that-scientists-use-to-track-planetary-change




http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/810722

Forests as carbon sinks and as producers of value adding materials


Biofuels

Annually this means ~$1.100 billion. In 2010–2015 the investment level has been $300–350 billion. Big majority of the funds should come from the private sector.

https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/graphics/investment-

in-global-energy-supply-by-fossil-fuel-non-fossil-fuel-and-

power-td.html

Investment in global energy supply by fossil fuel, non-fossil fuel and power T&D

Upsoar investments: We need $ 16,5 trillion investments into cleantech and energy efficiency by 2030 to meet 2 C goal


Attracting capital to clean solutions


Use carbon price

Wang Yining, China Association of Machine Industry

March 3, 2016, Globe conference 2016, Vancouver

Electrification of ”everything”


Liu Zhenya, Chairman, State Grid, China. Photos by J Keronen from Business & Climate Summit 21.5.2016, Paris.

CURRENT FINNISH STRENGTHS AND FUTURE GLOBAL MARKETS ANNUAL GLOBAL MARKET SIZE US$ BILLION

GROWTH BY 2050

Mitigation 1. Renewables 2. Energy efficiency 3. Storage

4. Carbon sinks

5. Upsoar investments

6. Electrification of ”everything”

Protection Adaptation

Innovation needs and opportunities


33 J Keronen, Climate Leadership Council

Thank You!

“We’re the first generation to feel the impact of climate

change and the last generation that can do something

about it.” Gov. Jay Inslee

Photo by Myrskyvaroitus – Stormwarning ry

Millennium treffit - Innovaatioilla ilmastomuutosta vastaan

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