Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Ready for the Second Review

EC-LNV, 23 June 2004

Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM

Co-ordinator Responses Working Group

Outline

Context

Description and Status

Conceptual Framework

Structure and Preliminary results of the Global Working Groups

Products

Second round review

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

An international scientific assessment of the consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being:

Modeled on the IPCC

Providing information requested by: Conventions (CBD, CCD, Ramsar, CMS) other partners including the private sector and civil society

With the goals of: stimulating and guiding action to conserve ecosystems and

enhance their contribution to human well-being building capacity to undertake integrated ecosystem assessments

and to act on their information

Human Challenge

Considerable progress has been made in fighting poverty life expectancy increasing infant mortality decreasing agricultural production increasing, etc.

Major problems remain 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 per day 1 billion people do not have access to clean water More than 2 billion people have no access to sanitation 1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards considered

acceptable by WHO 700 million people suffer from indoor air pollution due to biomass

burning

Source: Serageldin, 2002, Science 296:54

Growing Demand For Ecosystem Services

Water

One-third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity.

Population facing water scarcity will double over the next 30 years

Food

Food production must increase to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people over the next 30 years

Timber

Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population.

Wood demand will double in next 50 years.

A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers

Assessment

Monitoring Research

Stakeholders: Governments Private Sector Civil Society

What is a policy-relevant assessment?

A scientific assessment applies the judgement of experts to existing knowledge to provide scientifically credible answers to policy relevant questions.

MA Design Draws On LessonsFrom Earlier Assessments

Political legitimacyPolitical

legitimacy

Scientific credibilityScientific credibility

UtilityUtility

• Authorized by the UN and 4 conventions: CBD, CCD, Ramsar, CMS – to provide a portion of their information/assessment needs

• Multi-stakeholder governance structure: intergovernmental and non-governmental, including the private sector and civil society

• Modeled on IPCC procedures and structure

- Working groups and coordinating/lead authors

- North-South, regional, disciplinary, gender balance

- Independent review board, 2 rounds of expert and government review

- Policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive

• Focus strongly shaped by audiences

- Extensive analysis of user needs

- Review of draft products against user needs

- Focus on joint needs of multiple users

Key success factor from past experiences Relevant MA design features

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MA Organisation

Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group

Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group ConditionCondition ScenariosScenarios ResponseResponse

Global Assessment Working Groups

MA BoardMA Board

Assessment PanelWorking Group ChairsAssessment PanelWorking Group Chairs

Support FunctionsHighly Distributed Secretariat

Support FunctionsHighly Distributed Secretariat

Outreach & Engagement

Outreach & Engagement

Review Board Chairs

Review Board Chairs

Chapter Review Editors

Chapter Review Editors

Timeline

1st designmeeting

UN Launch

2nd designmeeting

Launch and design

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Beginreview

Review process

Reviewmeetings

Board approval

Release of assessment and synthesis reports;

Outreach

1st working group

meetings

Release of Conceptual Framework report

Core assessment work

2nd working group

meetings

3rd working group

meetings

Combined working group

meeting

Current status: 1st Round Review 1st Report (MA Conceptual Framework) completed 800 Authors, 85 countries Review Board established Chapters made available for review early January; reviewers had ten

weeks to submit review comments Reviews invited from approximately

750 Expert Reviewers 600 National Focal Points

Focal points for the CBD, CCD, Ramsar Convention, CMS, and UNFCCC in ~180 countries

15 “Affiliated Scientific Organizations and National Academies of Sciences (ASOs)

6900 Review comments received from approximately 215 Expert reviewers 35 National Focal Points 4 ASOs

Draft chapters being revised and available in June 2004 for in-depth review

Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems

RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of

ecosystem processes

• climate regulation• disease regulation

• flood regulation

ProvisioningGoods produced or

provided by ecosystems

• food • fresh water• fuel wood

• genetic resources

CulturalNon-material benefits from ecosystems

• spiritual • recreational

• aesthetic• inspirational• educational

SupportingServices necessary for production of other ecosystem services

• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling

• Primary production

SupportingServices

ProvisioningServices

RegulatingServices

CulturalServices

Freedomsand

Choice

Security

Basic Material forGood Life

Health

Good SocialRelations

Ecosystem Services Constituents of Well-being

Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being

Conceptual Framework

MA Working Groups

Scenario Working Group Given plausible changes in

primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well-being?

Responses Working Group What can we do to enhance well-

being and conserve ecosystems?

Sub-Global Assessment Working GroupAll of the above… at sub-global scales

Condition Working Group What is the current condition and

historical trends of ecosystems and their services?

What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being?

Condition Working Group

Introduction Methods, Drivers of change,

Biodiversity, HWB and Vulnerability

Ecosystem Services Analysed by major clusters of

ecosystem services

Ecosystems Multiple services from various systems.

Synthesis

Technical chapters examine current status and trends of ecosystem services across ecosystem types

A) ProvisioningChapter 8. FreshwaterChapter 9. FoodChapter 10. Timber, Fiber, FuelChapter 11. Novel Products and Industries from Biodiversity

B) Supporting and RegulatingChapter 12. Biodiversity regulation of ecosystem servicesChapter 13. Nutrient cyclingChapter 14. Air quality and climate regulationChapter 15. Human infectious disease agentsChapter 16. Waste processing and detoxificationChapter 17. Natural Hazard regulation

C) CulturalChapter 18. Cultural and amenity services

Then examine the status of different ecosystems in providing these ecosystem services

Ch. 19 Cultivated SystemsCh. 20 Dryland systemsCh. 21 Forest systemsCh. 22 Urban systemsCh. 23 Inland Water systemsCh. 24 Coastal systemsCh. 25 Marine systemsCh. 26 Polar SystemsCh. 27 Mountain systemsCh. 28 Island systems

Example questions being answered by the Condition Working Group:

What have been the consequences of ecosystem degradation for human health?

What have been the economic costs and benefits of changes to ecosystems?

What have been the trends in the supply of services from ecosystems?

How will current trends play out in the near future? How has the capacity of ecosystems to provide services

changed in the recent past What are the trends in the capacities of ecosystems to

continue to provide services.

A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition Working Group:

Ecosystems and Human well-being

Although on average human well-being has improved in the recent past, human populations are growing faster in ecosystems characterised by low well-being and low productivity, and there is a growing number of people at high risk of adverse ecosystem changes.

The world is experiencing a worsening trend of human suffering and economic losses from natural disasters. The capacity of ecosystems to regulate such natural disasters has diminished.

Flood damage in Europe in 2002 was higher than in any previous year.

The impacts of declining ecosystem services are often shifted from the groups responsible for the decline onto others.

A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition Working Group:

Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

The loss of biodiversity has lead to measurable reductions in aspects of human well-being.

The composition of communities of species, rather than numbers of species is most important in determining the capacity of the system to provide ecosystem services.

The integrity of interactions between species is critical for the preservation of long-term human food production on land and in the sea (e.g. pollination and pathogen control).

Among plants and vertebrates, the great majority of species are declining in distribution, population size, or both. We are not likely to meet the CBD 2010 target.

Overfishing is the dominant factor reducing marine biodiversity. Most terrestrial extinctions are predicted to occur in tropical

forests.

A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition Working Group:

Ecosystem services

There is a slower rate of growth of water use, although global per capita water availability is falling. Water withdrawal is currently about 10% of global continental runoff.

The growth of world cereal production has slowed recently, and the supply of fish as a cheap source of protein for developing countries has declined. There is an accelerating demand for livestock products.

Global consumption of fuelwood peaked in the 1990s, and is now declining, due to the availability of alternative fuel sources.

Terrestrial ecosystems were a sink for a third of historical CO2 emissions and a fifth of 1990s emissions. The sink was partially due to afforestation/reforestation in Europe and other regions.

A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition Working Group:

Ecosystems

Societies in coastal systems are increasingly impacted by fisheries failures in coastal and marine systems, exacerbated by pollution and development.

Islands are all coast, and are especially vulnerable

Climate change is having a real impact on polar systems But there is a high coping capacity in Polar countries, and so the

vulnerability of Polar societies is low.

The capacity of wetlands to deliver services is deteriorating around the world, and is worse than any other system type.

In Europe, the negative impacts of urban settlements on ecosystem services and human well-being has become more delayed and dispersed.

Main areas of forest degradation, 1980-2000

Population density and most populated and changing cities in 1990-2000

Main areas of change in cropland extent

Scenarios W.G. 29 Apr 04

What are the consequences for ecosystem services and human well-being of alternative worlds in which different approaches to sustainability are emphasized?

Green technologyTechnoGarden

Local-regional governance, common-property institutions

Adapting Mosaic

Economic growth, public goodsGlobal Orchestration

Reserves, parks, national-level policiesOrder from Strength

Dominant Approach for SustainabilityScenario Name

Scenario Working Group

Storylines

Global Orchestration, Techno-garden, etc.

IMPACTWorld food production

IMAGE 2

Global change

WaterGAPWorld water resources

Model Inputs Demographic Economic Bio-physicalTechnological

AIM

Global change

Model Outputs

Provisioning Services - Food (meat, fish, grain

production)- Fiber (timber)- Freshwater (renewable

water resources & withdrawals)

- Fuel wood (biofuels)

Regulating - Climate regulation (C

flux) - Air quality (NOx, S

emissions)

Supporting primary production

Links to human wellbeing

Approach to quantifying the MA scenarios

Chapters of Scenarios Assessment Report

Summary for Decision Makers (SDM)

Chapter 1: Summary of MA Conceptual Framework Chapter 2: Global scenarios in Historic PerspectiveChapter 3: Why is it important to include Ecology in Global ScenariosChapter 4: State of the Art in Describing Future Changes in EcosystemsChapter 5: Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: Rationale and Overview Chapter 6: Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios Chapter 7: Drivers of Change in Ecosystem Conditions and Services

Chapter 8: Four ScenariosChapter 9: Changes in Ecosystem Services and their DriversChapter 10: Biodiversity Across ScenariosChapter 11: Human Wellbeing Across ScenariosChapter 12: Synergies and Trade-offs among Ecosystem ServicesChapter 13: Synthesis: Lessons LearnedChapter 14: Synthesis: Policy Implications

The probability is small of any one scenario is the real future

None of the scenarios is “business as usual”, though allscenarios have elements of the world as it exists today.

None of the scenarios is a “best” path or “worst” path. Significantly better or worse outcomes could be developed using different mixes of the policies and practices addressed in the scenarios.

The future will be a mix of approaches and consequencesdescribed in the scenarios, plus events and innovations thathave not been imagined at the time of writing.

The scenarios are a menu of choices and their conse-quences. Readers may use this menu to consider their priorities, preferences and choices.

Scenarios: Answers to Frequently-Asked Questions

Scenarios: Selected Draft Headlines

Demand for provisioning services (food, fiber, water, etc.)increases in all scenarios. This increases stress onthe ecosystems that provide these services.

By 2050, 10% to 20% of current grassland and forestland will be lost, mostly due to expansion of agriculture.

By 2050, water stress increases in arid regions of Africaand Asia. The number of people living in water-stressedareas increases 200% to 300%. Globally, the volume ofpolluted fresh water increases. Water availability declines,mostly due to changes in climate and water withdrawal.

Ecosystems currently sequester CO2, but the future of thisservice is in doubt. The CO2 sink decreases in theOrder from Strength scenario

Diversity (vascular plants) declines in all scenarios(most in Order from Strength, least in TechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic). Greatest losses in warm mixed forest, savanna, scrub, tropical forest & woodland.

Fish populations are lost due to declining water availability.Differences among scenarios are minor. Most losses offishes occur in poor tropical and subtropical countries.

Our ability to reduce the rate of loss of species’ populations by 2010 is in doubt. Two scenarios (Order from Strength and Global Orchestration) fail to meet the target. The other two may, at best, barely meet the target.

Scenarios: Selected Draft Headlines

Part I: Conceptual Framework for Evaluating Responses Typology of reponses (legal, institutional, economic, technical, ecological) Methodologies to assess responses Uncertainties in the effectiveness of responses

Part II: Assessment of Past and Current Responses Biodiversity Food, fiber, fresh water, fuel Nutrients, waste, climate Cultural services Integrated responses

Part III: Synthesis: Ingredients for successful responses Poverty reduction Health Choosing responses Millennium Development Goals

Responses Working Group

Responses are defined as the whole range of human actions,

including policies, strategies, and interventions to address specific issues, needs, opportunities or

problems

Responses WG: definition

Chapters of Responses Assessment Report

Summary for Decision Makers (SDM)

Chapter 1: Summary of MA Conceptual Framework Chapter 2: Typology of ResponsesChapter 3: Assessing ResponsesChapter 4: Recognizing Uncertainties in Evaluating ResponsesChapter 5: Biodiversity Chapter 6: Food and cultivated systemsChapter 7: WaterChapter 8: Wood, Fuel wood and Non Wood Forest ProductsChapter 9: Nutrient ManagementChapter 10: Waste Management, Processing and DetoxificationChapter 11: Flood and Storm ControlChapter 12: Ecosystems and Vector Borne Disease ControlChapter 13: Responses to Climate ChangeChapter 14: Cultural ServicesChapter 15: Integrated ResponsesChapter 16: Consequences and Options for Human HealthChapter 17: Consequences of Responses for poverty

reduction, Ecosystem services and human wellbeing

Chapter 18: Choosing ResponsesChapter 19 Implications for achieving the MDGs

Some Preliminary Messages

Water: Significant opportunities to avoid future water crises exist in areas of improved design and management of water infrastructure, more inclusive and integrated governance and more efficient resource allocation through market based approaches

Forests: Strategies to improve the impact of forest product use on ecosystem health and human well being are more affected by decisions taken outside the forest sector than those within it.

People and Ecosystems: Policies and Economic Incentives concerning management systems and conservation strategies that separate people from their environment, freezing both cultures and ecosystems have limited success……

Key challenges in the development of effective response strategies arises out of limited knowledge on the complexity and variability of site-specific factors, which determine outcomes and costs

A further insightIntegrated responses (IR) are gaining in importance in both developing and developed countries but they have had mixed results. IR are responses that address degradation of ecosystem services across a number of systems simultaneously, or that also explicitly include objectives to enhance human well-being. IR occur at different scales and across scales, and use a range of instruments for implementation. Increasingly they are associated with the application of multi-stakeholder processes and with decentralization, and they may include actors and institutions from government, civil society and private sector.

Examples include some multi-lateral environmental agreements, environmental policy integration within national governments, and multi-sectoral approaches such as Integrated Coastal Zone Management.

Although many IR make ambitious claims about their likely benefits, in practice the results of implementation have been mixed in terms of ecological, social and economic impacts.

Assessment Outputs: Global2003 Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for

Assessment MA Data Catalog

Datasets being used in the MA

2004 Edited volume of conference paper: Bridging Scales and

Epistemologies in Multi-scale Assessments

2005 Technical Assessment Reports (300-800 pages ea.) and

Summaries for Decision-makers (SDMs) Sub-global Assessment Condition/Trends Assessment Scenario Assessment Response Options Assessment Summary Volume (SDMs of 4 reports)

2005 (cont) Synthesis Reports (30-50 page)

Overarching Synthesis Biodiversity (CBD) Desertification (CCD) Wetlands (Ramsar) Private Sector Health and Ecosystems (tentative) Food and Cultivated Systems (tentative)

Board Summary of Key Messages (10 p.) Other Products

Reports available over internet (multiple language for summary docs) Interactive web-based MA indicator exploration capability Partnerships for expanded outreach: radio, theatre, documentaries,

film (tentative) Partnerships for capacity-building/training outreach (tentative)

Assessment Outputs: Global

Major (expected) achievements of MA

Sound baseline information on ecosystems, human well-being and their linkages

New concepts, approaches, methodology Networking among scientists and institutions Support to Integrated Ecosystem

Assessments at various levels (local to regional/global)

Ultimately and most importantly, support to policy development and implementation by various audiences (Conventions, National and local Governments, Private sector)

MA Review Process

Jan 8 Mar 19

First round of Government and Expert Review

June August

Second round of Government and Expert Review

2004 2005

Release of Findings

Comments from 1st review (1)

Important dimensions that need strenthening Link to human wellbeing and poverty reduction Valuation, including non-economic valuation Generally, not enough on the economic side Gender analysis largely missing Trends and indicators not evident Distinction between trends and thresholds

(important for decision making) Thresholds and inertia

Comments from 1st review (2)

Stronger reference to user needs From review to policy relevant assessment Style of writing/length of some chapters

Too theoretical, presentation, weigh and balance Longwinded, difficult to extract main points More clearly need to facilitate the executive

summaries Tone: prescriptive, defeatist, advocacy

Rerview page on MA Internet:

http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/products.chapters.aspx

Government review organised through CBD National Focal Points

For Netherlands: Annemarie van der Heijden

Directoraat voor Europese SamenwerkingDGES

email: annemarie-vander.heijden@minbuza.nl

Details on review process by Netherlands Government will follow