Military Coups and Military Rule Political Economy of the Global South Prof. Tyson Roberts.
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Transcript of Military Coups and Military Rule Political Economy of the Global South Prof. Tyson Roberts.
Military Coups and Military Rule
Political Economy of the Global SouthProf. Tyson Roberts
What are the goals/motivations of national leaders?
Possible goals of national leaders
• Wealth• Power• National interests • Social group interests – Class, ethnic group, religious group, family/clan)
• Corporate interests (e.g., military)• Ideology
Intermediate vs. final goals
• Power => wealth• National prosperity => power• Ideology => class interests• Power => national prosperity
Intermediate vs. final goals
• Power => wealth• National prosperity => power• Ideology => class interests• Power => national prosperity– This is what most leaders say, but their actions
betray them
How do the motives of national leaders in low income countries differ from those in wealthier countries, and why?
Some differences in motives/goals
• Lower income countries– Relatively more wealth-motive in politics– Power-motive rulers more difficult to remove– Politically relevant groups may differ• e.g., ethnic group rather than economic class
Self-selection => More money-motive rulers in low-income countries
Developed country Less developed country
$ $
Politics
Business
Politics
Business
“Natural” selection =>More (explicitly) power-motive rulers in low-income countries
Developed country Less developed country
P I
N P
P I
N P
Indicators of (unrestrained) power motive
• Coronation ceremony• Opulent palace(s)• Unqualified relatives in
important military and government posts
• Execution of senior government & military officials w/o trial
• Cannibalism• Billion dollar Swiss bank
personal accounts
Methods to restrain ruler
• Rule of Law (institution)• Separation of powers– Law-making, purse, executive, judiciary
• Veto points• Accountability (ability to remove ruler)
What are some ways to remove a leader who is not performing satisfactorily?
Methods to remove leader
“Regular” methods• Term limits• Direct vote• Party vote• Parliament vote“Irregular” methods (domestic)• Military coup• Rebellion• Popular protest• AssassinationDeposed by another state
What are advantages and disadvantages of regular methods v. coup v. revolution v. foreign intervention?
Rulers are at risk of removal by multiple methods
• US: Term limits & direct vote• UK: Party vote & parliamentary vote• Zaire, Libya, Iraq (under Hussein): Rebellion,
military coup, and foreign state– State is autonomous from citizens=> popular
protest unlikely to be effective• Iraq (current): Party vote, parliamentary vote,
military coup, rebellion, foreign state
Rulers assess the greatest risks and take steps to remain in power
• Mobutu judged military to be greatest threat• “split his military into many different units so
that each can function as a check on the others” (Collier p. 149)
• Outcome: overthrown by invasion from Rwanda
In general, military coup is the greatest risk among “irregular” exits
Source: Goemans et al 2009
Irregular exits generally lead to exile, imprisonment, or death
Source: Goemans et al 2009
In some cases, the military coup has a constitutional basis
• Brazilian constitutions of 1891, 1934, 1946 (via Stepan 1988): – Military should obey the president “within the limits of the
law”– Military is a permanent national institution charged with
maintaining internal law & order and of guaranteeing normal functioning of constitutional powers
• Turkey (1920 constitution, etc.):– military guardian of secular tradition
• Thailand– Military’s first priority is loyalty to throne, not elected gov’t
Military prerogatives that can compromise/threaten civilian control (Stepan
1988)• Constitutionally sanctioned independent role of military
in political system• Active-duty participation in Cabinet & defense
department civil servant jobs• De facto control of armed services• De facto control of military budget & promotions• Control of intelligence & police• Control of key state enterprises• National-security laws and military-court system cover
large areas of political and civil society
Examples of civilian rule with high military prerogatives
• Egypt• Pakistan• Turkey (civilians now exerting more control)• Brazil (before most recent democracy)• Thailand
Rulers at greater risk of coup if...(Collier 2009)
• Government not severely repressive• Previous coups, in country or neighborhood• Ethnic polarization (in Africa ONLY)• Low income• Poor economic performance• Aid dependence• Ruler in power for a long time• Not recent years• No term limit
• Huntington: “modernity breeds stability, but modernization breeds instability”
• But economic growth deters military coups
Number of successful coups (1960-2008) and GDP/capita in 1960
Source: Center for Systemic Peace
Geographic distribution of coups
Source: Ppwell and Thyne 2011
Temporal pattern of coups
Source: Ppwell and Thyne 2011
If the military has all the guns, why don’t they stay in power?
• Military in politics leads to politics in military• Don’t want to be held responsible for
economic and social problems• Don’t have expertise in communicating with,
motivating, etc. the masses
Principal-Agent Model
• Principal: `A chief actor or doer; the chief person engaged in some transaction or function, esp. in relation to one employed or acting for him (deputy, agent, etc.); the person for whom and by whose authority another acts’ (see Brooker p. 41)
Military Regimes
• Military is principal • Chief executive (perhaps a junta chairman or a
civilian figurehead president) is agent
Military Regimes
Brazil 1964
Greece 1967Burma
Although Egypt’s President Sisi was elected in 2014, many consider Egypt to be a military regime
• 2011: Youngest member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) during Egyptian Revolution
• 2012: Appointed Minister of Defense and Commander in Chief by President Morsi
• 2013: Ousted Morsi in coup • 2014: Resigned from military
and elected president• 2015: Continued crack-down
on Muslim Brotherhood