Presented to the 2017 MRO Americas Military ConferenceOrlando, FL

Military AviationFleet & MRO Forecast 2017

Daniel KatzDirector, Defense Analysis and DataAviation Week Intelligence and Data ServicesArlington, VA

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Scope and Methodology➤ Military Aircraft Database:

Regional analysts update current fleets and 10-yr. projections for deliveries/retirements year-round. Counts are In-Service Fleets (ISFs) Forecast Scope: Western, Piloted Aircraft Forecast Data Cutoff: October 1, 2016

Demand-based, intelligence-driven, discrete approach.Sources: Aviation Week reporting; Reputable publications and periodicals;

Government documents; Extensive communication with military and contractor officials.

➤ MRO Data:20K+ data points, with thousands of recent actuals.Utilization; Field Mx salaries; Field Mx material costs; Costs for airframe, engine

and component depot maintenance.➤ MRO Algorithms, informed by trends and issues, combine fleet and MRO

data to generate projections for annual MRO demand.

3

Categorization: Regions and MRO➤ Regions:

North AmericaLatin America and CaribbeanEuropeMiddle East and North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEurasiaSouth AsiaAsia-Pacific

➤ MRO Categories:Field MaintenanceDeport Maintenance for: Airframe Engine Components (11 Categories): Mission Avionics Cockpit Systems Landing Gear Wheels and Brakes APU Dynamic Components, Hydraulics Pneumatics Fuel system, Electrical System Other

4

Categorization: MissionsFighter C4ISR Rotary Wing - Attack

Air Superiority Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Rotary Wing - ScoutAttack ISR Armed ReconnaissanceMulti-role Electronic Warfare Trainer ReconnaissanceMulti-role (ship-based) ISR Trainer Light AttackElectronic Attack Command and Control (C2) ObservationReconnaissance Communications Node Rotary Wing - TransportFlight Demonstration Psychological Operations (PsyOps) GeneralCombat-Capable Trainer Border Surveillance Special OperationsAdversary Trainer Stand-off Jammer Assault

Trainer/Light Combat Aircraft Maritime AmphibiousAdvanced Jet Trainer/Light Fighter Search and Rescue Search and Rescue Basic Flight Trainer/Light Attack Aircraft Reconnaissance Combat Search and RescueIntroductory Flight Trainer Surveillance MedevacHeavy-Body Trainer Surveillance (Anti-Submarine Warfare) VIPAdversary Trainer Patrol TrainerFlight Demonstration Patrol (Anti-Submarine Warfare) Rotary Wing - Maritime

Transport Bomber GeneralGeneral Air-Refueling Tanker Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)VIP Gunship Airborne Early Warning (AEW-RW)Special Operations Forces (SOF) Firefighter Airborne Mine Countermeasures (AMCM)Search and Rescue (SAR) Research Search and Rescue (SAR)Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) Flight Inspection Rotary Wing - Electronic WarfareMedevac Target Drone Rotary Wing - FirefighterTarget TugChase Plane

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Aircraft Characteristics (New)➤ Aircraft Category:

AmphibianBomberBusiness JetCivil PropellerCommercial JetFighterHelicopterTilt RotorLight 1-2 SeaterMilitary C4ISR (purpose-built)Military CargoMilitary Maritime Patrol (purpose-

built)Tiltrotor

➤ Lift Type:Fixed-WingRotary-Wing

➤ Weight ClassFixed-Wing: Heavy. Medium,

Light, Utility, Light UtilityRotary-Wing: Heavy, Medium,

Intermediate, Light

➤ Propulsion: Jet Turbine Piston

➤ Number of Engines: 1-8

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Global Toplines: 2017-2026

➤ Global ISF: 41,605 in 2017, 42,835 by 2027➤ Deliveries: 7,899➤ Retirements: 7,094➤ Open Requirements: 834 aircraft➤ 10-yr. MRO Market: $784 billion

2017: $76.5B2026: $79.6B

➤ Breakdown by MRO Type:Field Maintenance: 41%Airframe Depot Maintenance: 19%Engine Depot Maintenance: 8%Component Depot Maintenance: 32%

Global ISF by Region: 2017

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-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East &North Africa

Latin America South Asia Africa (sub-Saharan)

Eurasia Unknown

Aircraft In-Service Fleets by Region - 2017

Global ISF by Mission: 2017

8

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Aircraft In-Service Fleets by Mission - 2017

RW-Medium

RW-Light

RW-Intermediate

RW-Heavy

Utility

Medium

Light Utility

Light

Heavy

ALL

Global ISF by Manufacturer: 2017

9

15%

12%

9%

8%

8%5%4%3%

2%2%

32%

Top 10 Aircraft Manufacturers ISF - 2017

BoeingLockheed MartinSikorskyBell HelicopterAirbusBeechcraftNorthrop GrummanLeonardoCessnaDassaultOther

Top New Aircraft Manufacturers: 2017-2026

10

1,733

1,041

985 851

498 250

238

237 193

176

1,697

New-Build Aircraft Deliveries - Top 10 Manufacturers: 2017-2026

Lockheed MartinSikorskyUnknownBoeingAirbusKAITAINH IndustriesBell HelicopterPipistrelOther

MRO Demand by Region:2017-2026

11

54%

16%

15%

10%

2%

2% 1%

MRO Demand by Region: 2017-2026

North AmericaEuropeAsia-PacificMiddle East & North AfricaLatin AmericaSouth AsiaAfrica (sub-Saharan)

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U.S. Toplines: 2017-2026

➤ Total ISF: 13,730 in 2017, 13,753 by 2027➤ Deliveries: 4,484➤ Retirements: 4,457➤ Open Requirements: 214 aircraft➤ 10-yr. MRO Market: $403.7 billion

2017: $39.8B2026: $41.3B

➤ Breakdown by MRO Type:Field Maintenance: 41%Airframe Depot Maintenance: 20%Engine Depot Maintenance: 8%Component Depot Maintenance: 31%

U.S. ISF by Mission: 2017

13

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

U.S. Aircraft ISF by Mission Category: 2017

U.S. ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017

14

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

U.S. ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017

RW-Medium

RW-Light

RW-IntermediateRW-Heavy

Utility

Medium

Light Utility

Light

Heavy

U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026

15

54%

18%

14%

11%

1%1% 1%

U.S. MRO Demand by Operator: 2017-2026

United States Air Force

United States Navy

United States Army

United States Marine Corps

United States Coast Guard

United States SOCOM

Other

U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026

16

$14.3 B

$16.8 B

$17.7 B

$21.1 B

$21.2 B

$24.0 B

$26.7 B

$30.9 B

$34.6 B

$43.5 B

F-22

AH-64

F-16

F-15

C-17

C-135

F-35

C-130

F/A-18

S-70/H-60

Top 10 Aircraft Families by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026

U.S. Fighters

17

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

F/A-18 F-16 F-15 A-10 F-35 F-22 Harrier A-6

U.S. Fighter Families by ISF: 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

F/A-18 F-35 F-15 F-16 F-22 A-10 Harrier A-6

U.S

. $ B

illio

ns

U.S. Fighter Families by MRO Demand: 2017-2026

U.S. Trainers and Light Fighters

18

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

U.S. Trainers/Light Combat Aircraft Families by ISF: 2017

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

F-5 (T-38) PC-7/9 (T-6)

Hawk Beechjet King Air

U.S

. $ M

illio

ns

Top Five Trainer/Light Combat Aircraft Families by U.S. MRO

Demand: 2017-2026

U.S. Transports

19

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Heavy Medium Light Utility

U.S. Transport Aircraft by Weight Class and Family:

2017DHC-8DC-9AstraF27/Fk50DHC-2L-1011G-II/G-IIIC212CN235/C295G-IVDHC-6C-27/G.222757MetroDo 328Learjet 31/35/36G-V737E-2/C-2Citation Model 560C-5King AirC-17C-130 0

5

10

15

20

25

U.S

$ B

illio

ns

Top 10 Transport Families by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-

2026

U.S. C4ISR Aircraft

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

U.S. C4ISR Aircraft by Submission and Family: 2017

747

C-130

Global Express

E-2/C-2

DHC-7

DHC-8

Metro

P-3

707

C-135

PC-12

U-2

King Air0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

U.S

. $ B

illio

ns

Top 10 C4ISR Families by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026

U.S. Maritime Aircraft

21

0

50

100

150

200

250

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

U.S. Maritime Aircraft ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017-2026

Civil Propeller

Military Maritime Patrol(purpose-built)Military Cargo

Commercial Jet

U.S. Maritime Aircraft

22

0

50

100

150

200

250

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

U.S. Maritime Aircraft by Type: 2017-2026

E-9A

P-3 LRT

HC-130H

P-3 AEW

Beech 350 MSA

HC-27J

P-3C

HC-130J

HC-144

P-8A

U.S. Maritime Aircraft

23

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

737 C-130 P-3 CN235/C295 C-27/G.222 King Air DHC-8

U.S

$ B

illio

ns

U.S. Maritime Aircraft MRO Demand: 2017-2026

U.S. Rotary-Wing Aircraft

24

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Top 10 U.S. Rotary-Wing Types by ISF: 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

S-70/H-60 AH-64 V-22 CH-47 Huey

U.S

$ B

illio

ns

Top Five U.S. Rotary-Wing families by MRO Demand:

2017-2026

Thank You

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