Military Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast 2 Scope and Methodology Military Aircraft Database:...

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  • Presented to the 2017 MRO Americas Military Conference Orlando, FL

    Military Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast 2017

    Daniel Katz Director, Defense Analysis and Data Aviation Week Intelligence and Data Services Arlington, VA

  • 2

    Scope and Methodology ➤ Military Aircraft Database:

    Regional analysts update current fleets and 10-yr. projections for deliveries/retirements year-round.  Counts are In-Service Fleets (ISFs)  Forecast Scope: Western, Piloted Aircraft  Forecast Data Cutoff: October 1, 2016

    Demand-based, intelligence-driven, discrete approach. Sources: Aviation Week reporting; Reputable publications and periodicals;

    Government documents; Extensive communication with military and contractor officials.

    ➤ MRO Data: 20K+ data points, with thousands of recent actuals. Utilization; Field Mx salaries; Field Mx material costs; Costs for airframe, engine

    and component depot maintenance. ➤ MRO Algorithms, informed by trends and issues, combine fleet and MRO

    data to generate projections for annual MRO demand.

  • 3

    Categorization: Regions and MRO ➤ Regions:

    North America Latin America and Caribbean Europe Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Eurasia South Asia Asia-Pacific

    ➤ MRO Categories: Field Maintenance Deport Maintenance for:  Airframe  Engine  Components (11 Categories):  Mission Avionics  Cockpit Systems  Landing Gear  Wheels and Brakes  APU  Dynamic Components,  Hydraulics  Pneumatics  Fuel system,  Electrical System  Other

  • 4

    Categorization: Missions Fighter C4ISR Rotary Wing - Attack

    Air Superiority Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Rotary Wing - Scout Attack ISR Armed Reconnaissance Multi-role Electronic Warfare Trainer Reconnaissance Multi-role (ship-based) ISR Trainer Light Attack Electronic Attack Command and Control (C2) Observation Reconnaissance Communications Node Rotary Wing - Transport Flight Demonstration Psychological Operations (PsyOps) General Combat-Capable Trainer Border Surveillance Special Operations Adversary Trainer Stand-off Jammer Assault

    Trainer/Light Combat Aircraft Maritime Amphibious Advanced Jet Trainer/Light Fighter Search and Rescue Search and Rescue Basic Flight Trainer/Light Attack Aircraft Reconnaissance Combat Search and Rescue Introductory Flight Trainer Surveillance Medevac Heavy-Body Trainer Surveillance (Anti-Submarine Warfare) VIP Adversary Trainer Patrol Trainer Flight Demonstration Patrol (Anti-Submarine Warfare) Rotary Wing - Maritime

    Transport Bomber General General Air-Refueling Tanker Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) VIP Gunship Airborne Early Warning (AEW-RW) Special Operations Forces (SOF) Firefighter Airborne Mine Countermeasures (AMCM) Search and Rescue (SAR) Research Search and Rescue (SAR) Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) Flight Inspection Rotary Wing - Electronic Warfare Medevac Target Drone Rotary Wing - Firefighter Target Tug Chase Plane

  • 5

    Aircraft Characteristics (New) ➤ Aircraft Category:

    Amphibian Bomber Business Jet Civil Propeller Commercial Jet Fighter Helicopter Tilt Rotor Light 1-2 Seater Military C4ISR (purpose-built) Military Cargo Military Maritime Patrol (purpose-

    built) Tiltrotor

    ➤ Lift Type: Fixed-Wing Rotary-Wing

    ➤ Weight Class Fixed-Wing: Heavy. Medium,

    Light, Utility, Light Utility Rotary-Wing: Heavy, Medium,

    Intermediate, Light

    ➤ Propulsion:  Jet  Turbine  Piston

    ➤ Number of Engines: 1-8

  • 6

    Global Toplines: 2017-2026

    ➤ Global ISF: 41,605 in 2017, 42,835 by 2027 ➤ Deliveries: 7,899 ➤ Retirements: 7,094 ➤ Open Requirements: 834 aircraft ➤ 10-yr. MRO Market: $784 billion

    2017: $76.5B 2026: $79.6B

    ➤ Breakdown by MRO Type: Field Maintenance: 41% Airframe Depot Maintenance: 19% Engine Depot Maintenance: 8% Component Depot Maintenance: 32%

  • Global ISF by Region: 2017

    7

    -

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    16,000

    North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East & North Africa

    Latin America South Asia Africa (sub- Saharan)

    Eurasia Unknown

    Aircraft In-Service Fleets by Region - 2017

  • Global ISF by Mission: 2017

    8

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    Aircraft In-Service Fleets by Mission - 2017

    RW-Medium

    RW-Light

    RW-Intermediate

    RW-Heavy

    Utility

    Medium

    Light Utility

    Light

    Heavy

    ALL

  • Global ISF by Manufacturer: 2017

    9

    15%

    12%

    9%

    8%

    8%5% 4%3%

    2% 2%

    32%

    Top 10 Aircraft Manufacturers ISF - 2017

    Boeing Lockheed Martin Sikorsky Bell Helicopter Airbus Beechcraft Northrop Grumman Leonardo Cessna Dassault Other

  • Top New Aircraft Manufacturers: 2017-2026

    10

    1,733

    1,041

    985 851

    498 250

    238

    237 193

    176

    1,697

    New-Build Aircraft Deliveries - Top 10 Manufacturers: 2017-2026

    Lockheed Martin Sikorsky Unknown Boeing Airbus KAI TAI NH Industries Bell Helicopter Pipistrel Other

  • MRO Demand by Region: 2017-2026

    11

    54%

    16%

    15%

    10%

    2%

    2% 1%

    MRO Demand by Region: 2017-2026

    North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East & North Africa Latin America South Asia Africa (sub-Saharan)

  • 12

    U.S. Toplines: 2017-2026

    ➤ Total ISF: 13,730 in 2017, 13,753 by 2027 ➤ Deliveries: 4,484 ➤ Retirements: 4,457 ➤ Open Requirements: 214 aircraft ➤ 10-yr. MRO Market: $403.7 billion

    2017: $39.8B 2026: $41.3B

    ➤ Breakdown by MRO Type: Field Maintenance: 41% Airframe Depot Maintenance: 20% Engine Depot Maintenance: 8% Component Depot Maintenance: 31%

  • U.S. ISF by Mission: 2017

    13

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    U.S. Aircraft ISF by Mission Category: 2017

  • U.S. ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017

    14

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    U.S. ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017

    RW-Medium

    RW-Light

    RW- Intermediate RW-Heavy

    Utility

    Medium

    Light Utility

    Light

    Heavy

  • U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026

    15

    54%

    18%

    14%

    11%

    1% 1% 1%

    U.S. MRO Demand by Operator: 2017-2026

    United States Air Force

    United States Navy

    United States Army

    United States Marine Corps

    United States Coast Guard

    United States SOCOM

    Other

  • U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026

    16

    $14.3 B

    $16.8 B

    $17.7 B

    $21.1 B

    $21.2 B

    $24.0 B

    $26.7 B

    $30.9 B

    $34.6 B

    $43.5 B

    F-22

    AH-64

    F-16

    F-15

    C-17

    C-135

    F-35

    C-130

    F/A-18

    S-70/H-60

    Top 10 Aircraft Families by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026

  • U.S. Fighters

    17

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    F/A-18 F-16 F-15 A-10 F-35 F-22 Harrier A-6

    U.S. Fighter Families by ISF: 2017

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    F/A-18 F-35 F-15 F-16 F-22 A-10 Harrier A-6

    U .S

    . $ B

    ill io

    ns

    U.S. Fighter Families by MRO Demand: 2017-2026

  • U.S. Trainers and Light Fighters

    18

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    U.S. Trainers/Light Combat Aircraft Families by ISF: 2017

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    4500

    5000

    F-5 (T-38) PC-7/9 (T- 6)

    Hawk Beechjet King Air

    U .S

    . $ M

    ill io

    ns

    Top Five Trainer/Light Combat Aircraft Families by U.S. MRO

    Demand: 2017-2026

  • U.S. Transports

    19

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    Heavy Medium Light Utility

    U.S. Transport Aircraft by Weight Class and Family:

    2017 DHC-8 DC-9 Astra F27/Fk50 DHC-2 L-1011 G-II/G-III C212 CN235/C295 G-IV DHC-6 C-27/G.222 757 Metro Do 328 Learjet 31/35/36 G-V 737 E-2/C-2 Citation Model 560 C-5 King Air C-17 C-130 0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    U .S

    $ B

    ill io

    ns

    Top 10 Transport Families by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-

    2026

  • U.S. C4ISR Aircraft

    20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    U.S. C4ISR Aircraft by Submission and Family: 2017

    747

    C-130

    Global Express

    E-2/C-2

    DHC-7

    DHC-8

    Metro

    P-3

    707