Milind Kandlikar, University of British Columbia · NOx 200 μg/ m3(1 hr) 40 μg/ m3 (Annual)...
Transcript of Milind Kandlikar, University of British Columbia · NOx 200 μg/ m3(1 hr) 40 μg/ m3 (Annual)...
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Climate Change, Air Quality and Development: Where are the Win-
wins (if any) ?
Milind Kandlikar,
University of British Columbia
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This talk
• Climate, AQ, and Development
• India
– Air Quality
– Climate Change
• Evidence for Mitigating Air pollution and Climate together
• Science-Policy & the Development challenge.
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Why India?
• Critical Climate Actor
– A key emitter – 4th highest in aggregate terms (though still small in per-capita terms)
– Fast growing, huge population aspiring for a better life
– If India goes China’s way…..
• At the cusp of Climate Engagement
– ”You caused it, you fix it” (1990-2002)
– “You pay for Clean Development” (2002-2009)
– ”Co-benefits and Renewables” (2010-Present)
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What Co-benefits?
Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Herrero, S. T., Dubash, N. K., & Lecocq, F. (2014). Measuring the co-benefits of climate change mitigation. Annual
Review of Environment and Resources, 39, 549-582.
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IPCCKyotoGases
Non-Kyoto‘Gases’
IPCC AR5
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Climate and AQ ‘Co-benefits’ Case Studies
Win-Win
Win-LoseLose-Lose
Lose-Win
Mazzi et al
Reynolds et al.Reynolds and Kandlikar
Grieshop et al.Kandlikar et al.
Lots of case studies
Need the big picture
2017 Exec. Order
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‘Criteria’ Pollutants
PM 2.5 25 μg/ m3 (Daily)10 μg/ m3 (Annual)
Mortality (Heartdisease, LungFunction, Stroke)
CO 10 μg/ m3 (8 hr)40 μg/m3 (1 hr)
Acute effectsOzone formation
NOx 200 μg/ m3 (1 hr)40 μg/ m3 (Annual)
RespiratoryPM precursor
SOx 5000 μg/ m3 ( 10 min)200 μg/ m3 (Annual)
PM, O3, ToxicsPrecursor
Ozone 100 μg/ m3 (8 hour) Lung Damage ?Mortality?
WHO Guidelines; EPA for CO
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Particulate matter
(PM2.5)References:• Pope and Dockery 2006• HEI 2010
Metrics
Increasing Intake Fraction
Indoor fuel use~1/1,000
Transport~1/100,000
Industry & power
~1/1,000,000
Smoking2nd hand
primary ~1
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Steyn, 2015 in HT
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http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=84731
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
SPRING
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http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=84731
SUMMER
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http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=84731
FALL
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http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=84731
WINTER
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17Pic: Greenspon et al.
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Smoke from 2-stroke engine
18Photo courtesy Josh Apte
ईको फै्रण्डली सेवा
“Eco-friendly Service”
Compressed natural gas (CNG) fuel
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19http://nigambodhghatindelhifuneraldelhi.blogspot.ca/
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20
Maji and Kandlikar 2017
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Image courtesy: Japan Times.
Guttikunda, 2011
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Guttikunda et al 2014
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Quantifying Sources of PM 2.5 and GHGs
• Emissions Inventories – bottom up assessment– Activity levels * Emissions/Activity (e.g. km*g/km)
– “Technology” based
• We use a recent comprehensive and spatially resolved inventory of Indian emissions to:– Evaluate the inclusion air pollutants from different
sectors in the Greenhouse Mitigation basket
– Evaluate the exposure to outdoor air pollution
– Examine the overlap!
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Spatial Inventory
• A 0.25o x 0.25ospatial resolution
• 18 activities
• 10 species
– GHGs and Air Pollutants
• Survey data, Engineering models,and ’best guesses’
Sadavarte, Pankaj, and Chandra Venkataraman. "Trends in multi-pollutant
emissions from a technology-linked inventory for India: I. Industry and transport
sectors." Atmospheric Environment 99 (2014): 353-364.
Pandey, A., Sadavarte, P., Rao, A. B., & Venkataraman, C. (2014). Trends in
multi-pollutant emissions from a technology-linked inventory for India: II.
Residential, agricultural and informal industry sectors. Atmospheric
Environment, 99, 341-352.
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Climate Forcing
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Converting to CO2-eq
GHG GWP (100) GWP (20)
Kyoto
CH4 34 74.7
N20 298 298
Non Kyoto
BC 533 1915
OC -83 -298
SOx -64 -236
CO 2.7 8.89
VOC 7.3 25.3
NOx -30 -68.7
IPCC AR5,Venkataraman, C., Ghosh, S., & Kandlikar, M. (2016). Breaking out of the Box: India and Climate Action on
Short-Lived Climate Pollutants.
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Kyoto Gases alone
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Non Kyoto CO2-eq
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Kyoto + Non-Kyoto
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Venkataraman, C., Ghosh, S., & Kandlikar, M. (2016). Breaking out of the Box: India and Climate Action on Short-Lived
Climate Pollutants.
KyotoNon-Kyoto
2100 MT CO2950 MT CO2
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Air Quality - Health Impacts
Humbert, Sebastien, et al. "Intake fraction for particulate matter: recommendations for life cycle impact
assessment." Environmental science & technology 45.11 (2011): 4808-4816.
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Exposure Model
• Use simple parameterized box model at each location to calculate intake fraction
• Simple Meteorology– Wind speed, Mixing height, ‘back and forth’ factor
• Proximity of individuals to sources– Height based Source-location Matrix
• Rural vs. Urban differences– Spatially resolved source inventory
– Population density
• Caveats!Humbert, Sebastien, et al. "Intake fraction for particulate matter: recommendations for life cycle impact
assessment." Environmental science & technology 45.11 (2011): 4808-4816.
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Air Quality - Health Impacts
• Use simple ’reduced form’ model to calculate intake fraction
• Proximity of individuals to sources
• Rural vs. Urban differences
– Sources
– Population densityHumbert, Sebastien, et al. "Intake fraction for particulate matter: recommendations for life cycle impact
assessment." Environmental science & technology 45.11 (2011): 4808-4816.
11%
11%
4%
4%
55%
15%
74%
Average Exposure to Outdoor PM 2.5 (Urban + Rural)
Thermal Industry Transport
Informal Residential Agriculture
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10%
10%
3%5%
56%
16%
77%
Average Exposure to Outdoor PM 2.5 (Rural)
Thermal Industry Transport
Informal Residential Agriculture
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20%
13%
10%
2%
45%
10%
57%
Average Exposure to Outdoor PM 2.5 (Urban)
Thermal Industry Transport
Informal Residential Agriculture
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Thermal
Industry
Transport
Informal
Residential
Agriculture
Thermal Industry Transport Informal Residential Agriculture
Non-IGP 10 12 5 2 28 6
IGP 7 4 4 4 76 20
Per-capita Mean Annual PM2.5 Intake (in mg) Non-IGP
IGP
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AQ Co-benefits of Climate Policy
• Kyoto basket of ‘official GHGs’
– Formal sectors - Power, Transport and Industry 80% of GHG, 40% of outdoor PM 2.5 exposure.
– Unregulated/Informal sector accounts for 20% of GHG, 60% of outdoor PM 2.5 exposure
– Reducing Kyoto gases will have little or no effect on indoor exposures
• Using Kyoto gas reductions to reduce PM 2.5 exposure is only a (very) small win-win.
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Climate Impacts of AQ Policy– Win-win
• Non-Kyoto gases - Sectors with net positive CO2-eqs – Emit 950 MT of additional CO2-eqs, or 45% Kyoto
Gas emissions (2100 MT)
• These informal sectors account for 70% of outdoor exposure and all of the indoor exposures
• Reducing these emissions is a definite Win-Win– But don’t count in global mitigation calculus!
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Formal Sector‘Modern’
Informal Sector‘Traditional’
Point Source Power PlantsIndustry
PM 2.5 Exp. = 22%C (Kyoto)= 60%C (Non-Kyoto)= 30%
Small-scale industryBricks; Crematoria….
PM 2.5 Exp. = 4%C (Kyoto)= 7%C (Non-Kyoto)= 17%
Non-PointSource
Road, Rail and Air Transport
PM 2.5 Exp. = 4%C (Kyoto)= 19%C (Non-Kyoto)= 16%
“Garbage Burning”HouseholdsAgricultural Waste
PM 2.5 Exp. = 70%C (Kyoto)= 12%C (Non-Kyoto)= 29%
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Climate Science-Policy and Development
• The UNFCCC process (by definition) does not recognize non-Kyoto gases
• The IPCC won’t provide ‘official’ GWP numbers– Worry about Sulfates?– Too much uncertainty in Aerosol effects?– GWP Time horizon choice?
• Governments like India’s have balked– Anxious about ‘increasing’ their own carbon equivalent
contributions ?
• Pitch: A great project for a student to fully examine the reasons for the pariah status of non-Kyoto gases
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Final Thoughts
• Are we ‘lamp-posting’ when we use radiative forcing/GWP as the climate metric?
• Emerging literature on regional climate effects of short-lived pollutants as distinct from long-term global ones implicit in GWP– Precipitation Effects
– Insolation and Physiological effects on Agriculture
• Perhaps the co-benefits framing needs a rethink?
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Thanks numerous students and post-docs who worked with me over the years - ConorReynolds, Andy Grieshop, Brian Just, Arvind Saraswat, Simon Harding, Poushali Maji.
Colleagues @ IIT-Bombay, especially Prof. Chandra Venkatraman.