Milankovic book-dalj-pandzic-2009
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Transcript of Milankovic book-dalj-pandzic-2009
Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009
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Astronomical Theory of Climatic Changes and Its Application in Geophysics
by Milutin Milanković
Krešo Pandžić, Tanja Likso Meteorological and Hydrological Service,
CROATIA
Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009
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1 Croatian edition of Milanković’s book - “Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in
geophysics”
2 Milutin Milanković - a traveller throughspace and ages
3 Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
4 Scientific echo of Milanković’s astronomical theory of ice ages
5 Conclusion
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1. Croatian Edition of Milankovic’s Book“Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics”
• Publisher:
Prosvjeta, Zagreb, 2008
• For publisher: Mile Radović
• Editor: Branka Fulanović
• Redactor: Tanja Likso
• Reviewers:
Krešo Pandžić
Bojan Vršnak
• Volume: 192 pp
• Original: Naučna knjiga,
Beograd, 1958
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1. Croatian Edition of Milanković’s Book“Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics”
Content of Milanković’s book
• Foreword to Croatian
edition:
a) Milanković’s Curriculum
Vitae
c) Description of Milanković’s
book
d) Scientific Echo of
Milanković’s theory
• Theory: Chapters 1-6
• Application: Chapters 7-12
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2. Milutin Milanković - a traveller throughspace and ages
• Born 1879 at Dalj, Croatia
• High school in Osijek 1986
• Civil engineer in Vienna 1902
• 2 year later i.e. 1904, 25 years
old, obtained Ph.D. degree
• In 1909 he took the position of
University Professor of applied
mathematics in Belgrade
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2. Milutin Milanković - a traveller throughspace and ages
• Strategy of Milanković’s work:
“… In kingdom of science there are unpopulated and uncultivated areas where I could gain my scientific property…” - Vladimir Varićak said and Milanković accepted.
“… Where is a land which I could plough by my mathematical tools, seed it and wait products… “
“…I decided to peer into such transcendental parts of the sciences and started from meteorology…”
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2. Milutin Milanković - a traveller throughspace and ages
• He started to study Hann’s papers and indicated problem ace ages as the most important.
• Frequent wars made difficulties in Milanković’s work
• He was active in Balkan’s war in 1912 as a reserve officer
• During the First World War i.e. 1914 Milanković become a prisoner of war
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2. Milutin Milanković - a traveller throughspace and ages
•After an intervention of Prof. Cuber from Vienna he set free and stay in the Hungarian Academy of Science Library in Budapest next 4 years dealing with research work.
• Then he returned in Belgrade by a “white” steamship.
• He died in 1958 in Belgrade where he was temporarily buried.
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2. Milutin Milanković - a traveller throughspace and ages
• According to his last wish, his “body“ was moved in Dalj in 1966 from where he started “his traveling through space and ages where he rests in peace”
Panorama of Dalj on the right bank of Danube river
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
INTRODUCTION
• Two natural laws:
a) Newton’s law of gravity applied on planets’ motion
b) “Geometric law” of Sun irradiation of the Earth
• By mathematical language it is possible to describe relationship with Earth’s motion parameter variations and its Sun’s irradiation variations
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
INTRODUCTION
• In the book a “part of the science is exhibited which can find many applications in geology and geophysics”
• The first pat of the book is devoted to the theory and the second to the applications without strong mathematic – readable for the people without strong mathematical background.
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
PART I - Theory
Scheme of the Earth orbital element changes
Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
PART I - Theory
Ilustration of annual course of Earth iradiation on a paralel
• Lasting of a year divided into two equal parts: warm and cold part
• summer temperature important for ice ages
Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
PART I - Theory
Material embedded in the ice sheet is deposited at the terminus to form moraine.
Geologists use them for ice age study.
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
PART I - Theory
Geologists use moraines for ice age study.
Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
PART II - Application
Figure 15. Oscillations of amplitudes of summer irradiation for 65 degree parallel (After Milanković, 1948)
Figure 12. Distribution of glacial and interglacial episodes (After Penck, 1932)
Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
PART II - Application
"Usporedimo li sheme Slika 15 i 12, vidimo da se one dobro, što više izvanredno dobro slažu ako se uzmeu obzir da su dobivene na dva sasvim različita načina, geološkim ispitivanjem i astronomskim proračunom.Pozivajući se na tu podudarnost Köppen je mogao s pravom reći i objaviti kako u mojim krivuljamaozračenja dolaze do potpunog izražaja četiri alpska ledena doba Penck Brücknerove sheme, a s tim senjegovim stajalištem ubrzo složio i sam Brückner."
“If schemes from Figures 12 and 15 are compared then an extraordinary agreement between them is obvious although they have been obtained on two quite different ways: by geological study and astronomical calculations, respectively. Then, Austrian meteorologist Köppen confimed how in my calculations a fully appearing of four Alpine ice ages of Penck-Brückner scheme, what very soon has been accepted by Brückner himself.”
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
PART II - Application
"Naš građanski kalendar nije ustvari ništa drugo nego prebrojavanjenebeskih pojava. U njegovim elementima, danu, mjesecu i godini, ogledajuse sve same svemirske pojave, rotacija Zemlje oko svoje osi, obilaženjeMjeseca oko Zemlje i obilaženje Zemlje oko Sunca. Isto je to i s kalendaromZemljine prošlosti, stvorenim krivuljama ozračenja. U njemu se odražavajusvemirske pojave više kategorije, oscilacije nagiba ekliptike i ekscentricitetaZemljine putanje i obilaženje perihela po toj putanji. Nejednakost perioda tihpojava čine taj kalendar Zemljine prošlosti kompliciranijim nego što je našgrađanski kalendar, no ne manje pouzdanim, jer se i on zasniva na istojstvarnoj činjenici, gibanju Zemlje."
“Our citizenship calendar is in principle an accounting of space events. In its elements as: day, month and year are all space events: rotation of the Earth, Moon moving around Earth and the Earth moving around the Sun.
The same situation is with the “calendar” of Earth past i.e. with obtained irradiation curves. Within the space events of higher categories are reflected:: obliquity of Eart´s axis, eccentricity of the orbit and precession.”
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
PART II - Application
Visinski položaj površine tog pokrova očuvao ga je od potpunog topljenja ikroz interglacijalna doba koja su ležala između Ginca i Mindela, Risa iVirma. Jedino dugo interglacijalno doba koje je ležalo između Mindela iRisa bilo je u stanju otopiti taj snježni pokrov. A snježni pokrov naGrenlandu, visinskim položajem svoje površine, i do dana danšnjega prkositoplini Sunčevih zraka."
“High position of ice cover preserves its from melting in shorter intermediate ice ages between Ginc and Mindel as well as Ris and Virm. During a longer intermediate period between Mindel and Ris ice melting has been at the whole. The snow cover on the Greenland by his high elevation is able to resist warmth of Sun’s rays.”
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3. Astronomical theory of climate changes and its application in geophysics
PART II - Application
Greenland in Summer
Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009
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4. Scientific echo of Milankovic’s astronomical theory of ice ages
• Broecker (1968), 10 years after Milanković’s death said:
“Milanković’s theory can not be considered as a curiosity. A serious attention should be devoted to this theory.”
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4. Scientific echo of Milankovic’s astronomical theory of ice ages
Hays et al. (1976) pomoću "zapisa" u oceanima, osobito izotopa kisika O18te spektralne analize povrđuju Milankovićevu astronomsku teoriju slijedaledenh doba:
"Zaključuje se da su promjene orbitalne geometrije Zemlje temeljniuzrok slijeda ledenih doba kvartara. Model buduće klime zasnovan naorbitalno-klimatskoj vezi, ali uz zanemarivanje antropogenih efekata,predviđa da je dugoročni trend za vrijeme idućih dvadesetak tisuća godinausmjeren ka ekstenzivnom ledenom dobu na sjevernoj hemisferi i hladnijojklimi."
“Hays et al. (1976), according to “records” in oceans confirmed Milankovic’s astronomical theory of ice ages:“It is concluded that changes of Earth orbital geometry are basic cause of quaternary ice age cycle. The model of future climate based on the orbital-climate relationship, ignoring the human influence, indicate a trend to the colder climate on the northern hemisphere in around next twenty thousands years.”
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4. Scientific echo of Milankovic’s astronomical theory of ice ages
Comparison of Solar forcing and stage of glaciations
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4. Scientific echo of Milankovic’s astronomical theory of ice ages
Milanković’s irradiation curve for the Northern pole for past 250 and future 50 thousands years
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4. Scientific echo of Milankovic’s astronomical theory of ice ages
Recent global warming climate scenario, very probably under strong human influence
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4. Scientific echo of Milankovic’s astronomical theory of ice ages
“It can be noticed that climate change as resuts of greenhouse gaseous are also “forced” by changes of radiation regime at the top of the atmosphere. These change are not principally different (although differently distributed) form changes which are caused by Milanković’s “forcing”. Therefore it can be concluded that influence of greenhouse gaseous will results in great extent a predictable climatic response.”
"Možemo također primjetiti da su promjene klime kao rezultatstakleničkih plinova također 'forsirane' promjenom radijacijskog režima navrhu atmosfere. Ove promjene nisu suštinski različite (iako različitoraspodijeljene), od promjena koje uzrokuje Milankovićevo 'forsiranje'. Stogase može tvrditi da će djelovanje stakleničkih plinova uvelike rezultiratiprediktabilnim klimatskim odgovorom."
• Houghton (2002):
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5 Conclusion
• There is not contradiction between Milanković’s astronomical theory of climate changes and recent global warming theory but only difference is in time scale and causes of climate changes.
Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT TO:
Ministry of Science, Education and Sport,of Republic of Croatia, for financial support
Mile Radović, Director of “Prosvjeta”,Prof. Branka Fulanović, EditorTanja Likso, RedactorBojan Vršnak, ReviewerIvan Čačić and Zvonko Žibrat , Meteorological and Hydrological Service of CroatiaMirko Orlić, Branko Grisogono, Zoran Pasarić, Geophusical Institute “Andrija Mohorovičić”
Milutin Milanković - 130 anniversary, Dalj, Croatia, 29-30 May 2009
DHMZ
Kre
šo P
and
žić
Kre
šo P
and
žić
p
andz
ic@
cir
us. d
hz.h
r
pan
dzic
@ c
irus
. dhz
.hr
Met
eoro
logi
cal a
nd H
ydro
logi
cal S
ervi
ceM
eteo
rolo
gica
l and
Hyd
rolo
gica
l Ser
vice
THANK YOU