Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012
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Transcript of Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012
![Page 1: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
Mike ShatzkinIfBookThen, Milan
February 2012
THE BIG DIGITAL CHANGE ISSUES IN
US PUBLISHING FOR 2012
![Page 2: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES
(PRINT AND DIGITAL)• Over 30% of large pub volume and
growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p)
• Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants)
• Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal)
• Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can
![Page 3: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES
(PRINT AND DIGITAL)• Over 30% of large pub volume and
growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p)
• Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants)
• Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal)
• Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can
![Page 4: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES
(PRINT AND DIGITAL)• Over 30% of large pub volume and
growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p)
• Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants)
• Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal)
• Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can
![Page 5: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES
(PRINT AND DIGITAL)• Over 30% of large pub volume and
growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p)
• Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants)
• Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal)
• Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can
![Page 6: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR
AUTHORS• They know reading patterns• Ability to offer authors higher
royalties, onsite promotion• Can build some reach to other
channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers)
• Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay
![Page 7: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR
AUTHORS• They know reading patterns• Ability to offer authors higher
royalties, onsite promotion• Can build some reach to other
channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers)
• Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay
![Page 8: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR
AUTHORS• They know reading patterns• Ability to offer authors higher
royalties, onsite promotion• Can build some reach to other
channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers)
• Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay
![Page 9: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR
AUTHORS• They know reading patterns• Ability to offer authors higher
royalties, onsite promotion• Can build some reach to other
channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers)
• Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay
![Page 10: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION
(DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...)• Doubled or more for four straight
years (2007-2010 inclusive)
• New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011)
• Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance
• New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading
![Page 11: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION
(DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...)• Doubled or more for four straight
years (2007-2010 inclusive)
• New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011)
• Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance
• New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading
![Page 12: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION
(DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...)• Doubled or more for four straight
years (2007-2010 inclusive)
• New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011)
• Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance
• New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading
![Page 13: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION
(DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...)• Doubled or more for four straight
years (2007-2010 inclusive)
• New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011)
• Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance
• New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading
![Page 14: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN
PRICING• Agency model has enabled big publishers to
maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99• Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing
(could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) – Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99– Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points– Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books
• Reduction in pricing influence of print
![Page 15: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN
PRICING• Agency model has enabled big publishers to
maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99• Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing
(could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) – Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99– Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points– Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books
• Reduction in pricing influence of print
![Page 16: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN
PRICING• Agency model has enabled big publishers to
maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99• Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing
(could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) – Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99– Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points– Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books
• Reduction in pricing influence of print
![Page 17: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL
RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...)
• All consistent success is immersive reading
• Different investment-return scenarios
(additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks)
• App market pricing discouraging• Potential to change with HTML5 apps
and new ePub 3 specifications
![Page 18: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL
RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...)
• All consistent success is immersive reading
• Different investment-return scenarios
(additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks)
• App market pricing discouraging• Potential to change with HTML5 apps
and new ePub 3 specifications
![Page 19: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL
RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...)
• All consistent success is immersive reading
• Different investment-return scenarios
(additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks)
• App market pricing discouraging• Potential to change with HTML5 apps
and new ePub 3 specifications
![Page 20: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL
RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...)
• All consistent success is immersive reading
• Different investment-return scenarios
(additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks)
• App market pricing discouraging• Potential to change with HTML5 apps
and new ePub 3 specifications
![Page 21: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES
TO OWN NON-ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS?
• Self-publishing authors doing it on their own!
• Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere
• US publishers looking for ways to expand
• Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors
![Page 22: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES
TO OWN NON-ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS?
• Self-publishing authors doing it on their own!
• Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere
• US publishers looking for ways to expand
• Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors
![Page 23: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES
TO OWN NON-ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS?
• Self-publishing authors doing it on their own!
• Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere
• US publishers looking for ways to expand
• Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors
![Page 24: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES
TO OWN NON-ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS?
• Self-publishing authors doing it on their own!
• Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere
• US publishers looking for ways to expand
• Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors
![Page 25: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY?
• Scale would seem to require it• The challenge: economics of reading
devices require also selling the content
• B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content
• B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle
![Page 26: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY?
• Scale would seem to require it• The challenge: economics of reading
devices require also selling the content
• B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content
• B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle
![Page 27: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY?
• Scale would seem to require it• The challenge: economics of reading
devices require also selling the content
• B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content
• B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle
![Page 28: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY?
• Scale would seem to require it• The challenge: economics of reading
devices require also selling the content
• B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content
• B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle
![Page 29: Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081602/54981b7fb47959384d8b5327/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Logical
Idea
The
Company
© 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
CONTACT
Mike ShatzkinThe Idea Logical Company
[email protected]@MikeShatzkin