Threats to Food Security and Food Chain Livelihoods from Weeds, Pests

and Diseases

Dr Mike Bushell

Syngenta Global R&D

0

1

2

3

4

1970 2000 2010 2030 2050

Demand growth from population growth and diet changes

• 9bn people by 2050

– Rapid increase in emerging countries

• 2050 grain demand: +50%

– food grain +25%

– meat consumption +70%

* Includes cereals, rice, corn and soybean Source: FAO, Syngenta analysis

Global population bn

World demand for major crops* bn tonnes

2

4

6

8

10

0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2030 2040 2050

Emerging

Developed

+50%

Feed

Food

Classification: PUBLIC

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-

100

200

300

400

Food Price risks Stocks-to-use ratio* %

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07

Crop price index** Jan 2002 = 100

07/08 08/09 09/10

10/11 11/12E

• Crop price volatility

• Government intervention

• Ongoing demand growth: emerging markets

• Challenging supply/demand balance

• Energy costs remain high and volatile

* Ratio for combined corn, soybean, wheat and rice Source: WASDE October 2011 for STU, Bloomberg for prices, Syngenta analysis

Classification: PUBLIC

How have we met the increased food demand since 1950’s?

Mechanisation including irrigation

Modern fertilizers

Crop protection chemicals

Better seed varieties

Classification: PUBLIC

The role of crop protection

of the world’s

food would not exist

without crop protection

products

•Delivering genetic

potential

•Protecting Yield

•Increasing Yield

Quality

40%

Classification: PUBLIC

1

CP contribution to crop yields and remaining potential

23

50.2

31.540

1825.1

39.6

21.6

37.333.7

53.2 34.6

37.428.2 31.2 26.3 28.8

40.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Rice Wheat Maize Soybean Cotton Potato

% t

heo

reti

cal

maxim

um

Yield with no CP Extra yield from CP Remaining potential

Source: Crop Losses to Pests; E-C Oerke, Journal of Agricultural Science (2006), 144, 31-43

Classification: PUBLIC

Disease, Insect, Weed Control Research Targets

Classification: PUBLIC

Non-selective

Corn selective

Cereals selective

Soya Bean selective

Rice selective Cereals

Fruit &Veg

Field crops

Horticulture

Sucking pests

Nematodes

Soil pests

Lepidoptera

Crop diseases can be devastating Effects of Potato Late Blight (Phytophthora infestans) exemplifies

why agricultural fungal control is so important to global agriculture!

Classification: PUBLIC

Drivers for innovation : New disease issues

• New disease pandemics can occur

• Example : Soybean rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) – a billion $ opportunity in N & S America

that didn’t exist 10 years ago.

– a virulent strain from the Far East first identified in 1902

– rapid defoliation and dramatic yield losses (up to 80%).

• Rapid spread from Zimbabwe in 1998 to S. Africa, S. America and USA by 2004.

Fungicide treated vs. untreated

soya in Brazil

Classification: PUBLIC

Drivers for innovation: Resistance

• Resistance drives need for product refreshment – Can develop faster than R&D can

deliver new technologies

• Resistance management is a major issue

• Different types of resistance development and impact – so monitoring is important – Azoles – “creeping” tolerance – Strobilurins – sudden and total

failure

• Example : Septoria tritici resistance to Strobilurin fungicides in Europe….

Septoria tritici

Classification: PUBLIC

GM Plants with insect resistance Corn borer resistant (Bt) maize Corn root worm resistant maize

Classification: PUBLIC

Key Pests of US Corn

Pest Common Name Vip3A

(Viptera)

Cry1Ab

(CB)

Helicoverpa zea Corn Earworm . .

Spodoptera frugiperda Fall Armyworm . .

Agrotis ipsilon Black cutworm .

Striacosta albicosta Western bean cutworm .

Papaipema nebris Common stalk borer . .

Ostrinia nubilalis European corn borer .

Diatraea grandiosella Southwestern corn borer . .

Stacks offer outstanding control of all these pests

Classification: PUBLIC

Fungal mycotoxins: a growing problem

• Secondary metabolites, e.g. aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxins, deoxynivalenol (DON), patulin and zearalenone produced by Aspergillus, Fusarium & Penicillium spp

• Aflatoxins are greatest risk to human and animal health – Up to 25% of the world’s food crops significantly contaminated* – Acute exposure can be fatal; chronic exposure causes serious

health problems

• Dietary exposure managed in developed countries – Food Chain and Food Safety Agency monitoring and action – Significant economic losses

• Kenya 2011** – 30-60% maize samples tested had aflatoxin levels above the

action level – Up to 163x safe concentration

* Source: WHO 1999

** Source: IFPRI Classification: PUBLIC

Insect control reduces mycotoxin levels in corn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

25'000

% of ears attacked by corn borer

3 880

240

19 800

KARATE

G1

KARATE

G1 and G2

Check

FU

MO

(p

pb

)

• Insecticide control of corn borer infestation reduces fumonisin levels

• Bt corn (GM) also reduces crop losses through mycotoxin contamination*

*Source: G Brookes, PG Economics June 2009

Classification: PUBLIC

Weeds are more than a nuisance!

• Weeds are the number 1 cause of yield loss

• With a good fertiliser regime you can grow 12t/ha maize – or 6t maize and a lot of

weeds

• Compete with the crop for light, water and nutrients

• Costly to control manually • Herbicide programmes need

to be safe to the crop while controlling the key weeds

• Weedy rice is a particular problem that can’t be solved by chemicals

Classification: PUBLIC

Hainan China November 2008

Classification: PUBLIC

10 t/ha yield integrated solution: Chennai March 2011

Classification: PUBLIC

Safety all around

Protection of employees

Operator safety

Environment

Food People

Classification: PUBLIC

Mycotoxin contamination

Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture

……a key concept from UK Foresight report

Ag Systems that deliver better outcomes

• more crop yield from the same area of land

• reduced negative environmental impacts

• using all inputs more efficiently – land, water,

nutrients

Both agricultural

productivity AND better environmental outcomes

are pre-eminent under sustainable intensification

Growing More from Less

Classification: PUBLIC

Food Security Issues

Sustainable Consumption Issues

Microbial contamination

Choking Hazard

Chemical Hazards

Food Safety

Syngenta technology contributes to solutions

Development of integrated solutions Pest (IPM)

Crop (ICM)

Field / Farm

Landscape

Threshold Concepts

Beneficials Management

Traps, Pheromones

Resistance Management

Programs

Altenative Solutions

Residue Minimization

Seed Care

Product Stewardship

Forecast Models

Alert Systems

Field Margins

Pollinator Habitat

Application Technology

Farm Stewardship

C / N Footprint

Refuge Management

Biodiversity Concepts

Water Protection

Land Use Concepts

Increasing level of integration and risk mitigation

Classification: PUBLIC

ICM in Vegetables • Andalucia (Almeria) Spain

– 2008- 100% of peppers, cucumbers and egg plant treated with ICM

– Combination of cultural, chemical and biological control methods

Classification: PUBLIC

Biological control of insects

Predatory mites Amblyseius cucumeris – thrips

A swirskii – whitefly

A.andersoni – spider and russet mites

Phytoseuilus persimilis - spidermites

Hypoaspis miles - sciarids

Parasitoids Encarsia and eretmocerus – whitefly

Aphidius – aphids

Diglyphus - leafminer

Bugs Orius sp – thrips

Macrolophus - whitefly

Classification: PUBLIC

Summary

• Pests, Weeds and Diseases are a major cause of yield and crop quality loss, and farm income reduction

• Systems approaches are vital

• Insect pest damage leaves the plant open to secondary attack from damaging fungal, viral and bacterial diseases

• Without effective pest control 40-50% of the food we have today would not exist

– Poor control of pests and diseases in the field will result in additional losses in storage

– Animal Health is also affected by Pests and Diseases

• Chemical crop protection agents are essential to meet our food security challenge

• Advances in plant science offer an opportunity for better genetics

Classification: PUBLIC