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Migratory Bird Stopover Modeling /Great Lakes

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Migratory Bird Stopover Modeling /Great Lakes Wind Turbine GuidelinesJames Cole, Ohio Bird Conservation Program Manager

“Bird migration is the one truly unifying natural phenomena in the world, stitching the continents together in a way that even the great weathera way that even the great weather systems, which roar out of the poles but fizzle at the equator, fail to do. It is perhaps the most compelling drama in all of natural history.”sto y

Scott Weidensaul, Living on the Wind –Across the Hemisphere with Migratory Birds

How do you assess threats and develop conservation strategies for this???

Modeling Species Distribution and Habitat Suitability

- Determine how landscape patterns influence the di t ib ti d b d f 7575distribution and abundance of species

- Integrated wildlife and habitat management throughout a

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management throughout a landscape

- Better reserve design- Identifying areas of ecological

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restoration for species viability- Assessing develop impacts and

determining offsets

- TNC has developed four !

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Port ClintonMillburyElliston

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Crane Creek Wild Exp Stat StpkCrane Creek Beach State Park

TNC has developed four stopover models for the Great Lakes

- WLEB!

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- Lake Ontario (NY)- Lake Michigan (Chicago

Wilderness)Green Bay

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Soy Biodiesel

Bio-electricityCellulosic

Corn ethanol

Sugarcane ethanolgWind

HydropowerPetroleum

Although needing less direct clearing (i.e., footprint), wind turbines still can create a largePetroleum

Solar PhotovoltaicNatural Gas

turbines still can create a large impact area.

Solar ThermalCoal

Geothermal

Biofuels and wind are the most land-intensive forms of energy production

NuclearEfficiency (electricity)

Efficiency (liquid fuel)

McDonald et al. in review

Efficiency (liquid fuel)

Why Focus on Migratory Birds?

Population Trends of Breeding Birds in the United StatesData are from the 415 native species

with adequate BBS sample sizes for analysis30

20

25

s

15

20

of sp

ecie

s Sig. Incr.IncreaseDecreaseSi D

5

10% Sig. Decr.

0

Greatest Threats to Bird Populations

88%90%

100% *Causes of endangerment for imperiled species in the U.S.Source: Environmental Defense Fund

46%60%70%80%

%

46%

20% 14%30%40%50%60%

20% 14%

2%0%

10%20%30%

0%Habitat

destruction anddegradation

Exotic species Pollution Overharvest Disease

**These numbers do not include collisions – window strikes, wind turbines, etc. – which could account for 1 million bird

deaths annually in the U. S.

The Importance of Stopover Sites

The Importance of Stopover Sites

Male Wilson’s Warblers gained mass during fall stopover inMale Wilson s Warblers gained mass during fall stopover in

riparian habitats, but not in more fragmented or degraded areas.

Finch and Yong (2000)Finch and Yong (2000)

The Importance of Stopover Sites

“ Apparent mortality rates were at least 15 times higher during…Apparent mortality rates were at least 15 times higher during

migration compared to that in stationary periods…more than 85

percent of apparent adult mortality…occurred during migration.”

Sillet and Holmes (2002)

The Importance of the Western Lake Erie Basin

- The lower Great Lakes are recognized as areas of continental significance in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan

- Lake Erie marshes in Ohio and Michigan were identified as a regionally important stopover site by theLake Erie marshes in Ohio and Michigan were identified as a regionally important stopover site by the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network

- Approximately 15,000 raptors migrate along the southern Lake Erie shore each spring

- “Spring passerine migration along the [Erie] lakeshore may be unsurpassed except by the Gulf coast in eastern North America” (Shieldcastle 2000)

- Only 5 percent of the original 121,000 ha (307,000 acres) of Lake Erie marshes and wetlands in NW Ohio remain

The Importance of the Western Lake Erie Basin

WLEB Migratory Bird Stopover Model

- Strategies:S a eg es- Identify attributes of WLEB stopover

sites for landbirds, waterfowl, and shorebirds

- Map and prioritize patches with these attributes

- Incorporate results into biodiversity conservation plans

- Collaborate with partners to restore and preserve sites

Example – Ranking Sites for Landbirds

Very High (5 points)Very High (5 points)- Undeveloped cover <0.4 km from Lake Erie

High (4 points)Undeveloped cover 0 4 1 6 km from Lake Erie- Undeveloped cover 0.4-1.6 km from Lake Erie

Medium (3 points)- Undeveloped cover >1.6 km from Lake Erie and <200 m from a river, lakeshore, wetland, etc.

Low (2 points)- Undeveloped cover >1.6 km from Lake Erie and 0.2-0.4 km of a river/wetland OR >4 km from other undeveloped cover

Very Low (1 point)- Undeveloped cover >1.6 km from Lake Erie and <4 km from other pundeveloped cover

Example – Ranking Sites for Landbirds

Example – Ranking Sites for Landbirds

Integrating Stopover Models With Wind Energy Planning

- Coastal and offshore wind turbines may affect migratory birds as

follows:

- Direct mortality (collision)

Short term habitat loss during construction- Short-term habitat loss during construction

- Long-term habitat loss due to disturbance by turbines and maintenance

- Formation of barriers on migration routesg

- Disconnection of ecological routes (e.g., between nesting and feeding

sites)

Exo et al (2003)

- Besides bats, migratory landbirds may be at greatest risk for

direct mortality

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The mean percentage of nocturnal targets flying below 125 m was approximately 4% for both spring and fall

Estimated number of birds and bats flying at different altitude zones(Source: ABR, Inc., Fall Radar Study Final Report, April 2004.)

1.5-1.8 MW650 KW 3.0 MWAltamont

Integrating Stopover Models With Wind Energy Planning

Validating the model and integrating results into- Validating the model and integrating results into wind energy planning:- Evaluate migratory bird use as a distance from theEvaluate migratory bird use as a distance from the

coast and other salient landscape features (e.g., riparian corridors)Add f t d t di th i l t- Add future data regarding the air column to assess ascent and descent angles to/from stopover sites

- Elucidate connections from modeled stopover sites toElucidate connections from modeled stopover sites to other locales in the region

- Eventually develop a threat index for migratory birds li d G L k ias applied to Great Lakes stopover sites

TNC’s Voluntary Great Lakes Siting Guidelines

- Recommendations for those planning for responding toRecommendations for those planning for, responding to, or anticipating proposed wind energy projects

- Can be used to assess potential biodiversity outcomes of wind turbines and infrastructure placement at a site-specific scale; meant to complement state, provincial, and national guidelinesand national guidelines

- Guidelines are based on:- Ecological models- Peer-reviewed literature- Gray literature, including reports- Expert opinionp p- Biodiversity assessments and summaries (e.g., ecoregional

plans)

TNC Guidelines: Working Example (Forests)

- Avoid forests (>5,000 acres) surrounded by agricultural or urban landscapes (e.g., Allegan State Game Area, MI; Baraboo Hills, WI.)

- Avoid remaining natural cover in landscape (at least 5Avoid remaining natural cover in landscape (at least 5 km2) with <20 percent natural cover

- Avoid reducing forest cover to <70 percent in intact landscape (northern MN, northern WI, northern MI, southern OH, etc.)

- Recommendations will be compiled for other systems- Recommendations will be compiled for other systems like wetlands, grasslands, coastal, and offshore, and for migratory birds and bats

Questions?Questions?

More information:More information:

James Cole, The Nature ConservancyPhone: (419) 867-4025Email: jbcole@tnc orgEmail: jbcole@tnc.org