Migration, Remittances and Development · - Remittance costs average 7%, still far from the 3%...
Transcript of Migration, Remittances and Development · - Remittance costs average 7%, still far from the 3%...
Dilip Ratha
Migration and Remittances TeamSocial Protection and JobsWorld BankWashington, D.C.April 12, 2019
Migration, Remittances
and Development
Summary
1. Global migration flows are on the rise as is the challenge of returning migrants and asylum seekers
2. Migration-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):
- Remittances to low- and middle-income countries expected to reach $550 bn in 2019, larger than FDI (SDG 17.3.2)
- Remittance costs average 7%, still far from the 3% target (SDG 10.c.1)
- Recruitment cost indicator moved up to from Tier III to Tier II (SDG 10.7.1) – now we need to undertake surveys in 30+ corridors
3. Implementation of Global Compact on Migration could benefit from initiating a voluntary Systematic Review Framework
International migrant stock: 266 million in 2018
Migrants (240 million)
Refugees (26 million)*
Source: UN DESA, UNHCR, and World Bank staff estimates.
* Including 5.4 million Palestinian refugees.
Refugee movements have slowed
Source: UNHCR
0
5
10
15
20Refugee stocks (millions)
World
European Union
Number of new asylum seekers in EU-28 fell
significantly
Source: Eurostat
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Pending asylum
applications
First-time asylum seekers
(Thousands)
Return migration is likely to increase from
the European Union and the United States
Source: Calculations using data from Eurostat.
Note: Asylum seekers are first time asylum applicants coming from non-EU28 countries.
Undocumented detected stockt = undocumented detected stockt-1 + new undocumented detectedt
– returned.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EU
USA
# of undocumented detected (million)
Remittances to low- and middle-income
countries are likely to surpass FDI in 2019
-100
100
300
500
700
900
FDI
Remittances
ODA
($ billion)
Portfolio debt
and equity flows
Source: World Bank staff estimates, World Development Indicator, and IMF’s BOP statistics
Excluding China, remittances have been larger
than FDI since 2015
0
200
400
600
FDI
Remittances
($ billion)
Source: World Bank staff estimates, World Development Indicator, and IMF’s BOP statistics
Remittance flows grew strong in 2018,
particularly in SAR and ECA regions
6.7
9.19.5 9.6
11.2
12.3
EAP MENA LAC SSA ECA SAR
Growth, year-on-year (%)
Source: World Bank
Top recipients of remittances in 2018
Source: World Bank, April 2019
79
67
36 3429
24 2116 15 14
($ billion, 2018)
3534
31 3128
21 20 19 18 16
(% of GDP, 2018)
Average remittance costs remain
significantly higher than the SDG target
7.1
5.2
5.9
6.7
7.6 7.3
9.4
6.9
5.0
6.26.7
7.26.8
9.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
Global SAR LAC ECA EAP MENA SSA
First Quarter 2018 First Quarter 2019(Percent)
SDG target, by 2030
Source: Remittance Prices Worldwide, World Bank.
Fees vs FX margins
Source: Calculations by World Bank staff for 2018 Q4 based on the Remittance Price Worldwide database
10
17 1814 14
1814
16 15 1512 13
13
4 1
4 40
31 2 2
4 3
0
5
10
15
20
25Fees Foreign-Exchange margins
(Percent)
Banks have highest cost followed by MTO-
Post Office partnerships
Source: World Bank-KNOMAD staff analysis based on World Bank Remittance Prices World wide
database 2018 Q4.
4.1
5.54.6
6.2
9.0
7.7
9.610.2
India World
Average cost (%)
Post office Money Transfer Operator MTO/Post Bank
Exclusivity
premium, 4.4
Exclusivity
premium, 1.5
Global Remittances Agenda
Leverage Remittances
Sell diaspora bonds
Promote financial inclusion
Micro-insurance
Sovereign credit ratings
Future-flow securitization
Mobile money, crypto currency
Recruitment costs disproportionately high for
low-income workers
Source: KNOMAD-ILO Migration Costs Surveys
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400Pakistan-KSA: Average monthly foreign earnings (constant 2016$)
Months of earnings
A Systematic Review Framework for
Global Compact on Migration
• Similar to G20 Mutual Assessment Process
• Voluntary preparation of Activities and Policies Template (APT)
• Facilitate discovery of good practice, replication, mutual consistency,
collaboration
• Help develop baseline and benchmark for monitoring progress
Activities and Policies Template
• GCM Objective 1
– Sub-objectives (all or some important ones)
– Planned actions as migrant-sending country
– Planned actions as migrant-receiving or transit country
– Indicate complementary actions you’d expect from partner
countries; also indicate which countries
– Comments by partner countries
– Summary assessment by external experts (eg, KNOMAD and UN
Migration Network) and additional actions identified
• Repeat for GCM Objectives 2-23
Summary
1. Global migration flows are on the rise as is the challenge of returning migrants and asylum seekers
2. We are making progress on migration-related SDGs:
- Remittances to low- and middle-income countries expected to reach $550 bn in 2019, larger than FDI (SDG 17.3.2)
- Remittance costs average 7%, still far from the 3% target (SDG 10.c.1)
- Recruitment cost indicator moved up from Tier III to Tier II (SDG 10.7.1) – now we need to undertake surveys in 30+ corridors
3. Implementation of Global Compact on Migration could benefit from initiating a voluntary Systematic Review Framework
4. World Bank is in a position to support the global community