Úrsula Oswald Spring

CRIM-UNAM, U. Chulalongkorn

Project: DGAPA- IN300213, 18th

December, 2013

Migration in the Context of

Disaster Risk Reduction and

Management Model for ASEAN

Content

1. Research question 2. General view on global migration 3. Some conceptual reflections: Environmental-induced

migration: EIM 4. Methodology 5. Disasters globally and in ASEAN countries 6. Why is Asia so highly vulnerable to disasters? 7. Risk and risk society 8. Environmental and social vulnerability: reinforcing

each other 9. Gender vulnerability 10.Adaptation an resilience-building: top-down and

bottom-up

2. General view on Migration: 1990-2013

Migration: brain loss or brain gain?

2010

Migration in ASEAN countries, 2011

Source: Orbeta & Gonzales, 2013: 4 and 5

per 1000 migrant workers

Contribution of migrant workers/country

percentFB --- percent foreign-born worker (= FB / LF); percent MW – percent migrant worker (= MW /LF); Source of basic data: WB World Development Indicators, Bilateral Migration and Remittances Matrix, ADB Statistical Database Syst. 2013

3. Some conceptual reflections:

Environmental-induced migration:

EIM

1. Research questions

• What is environmental-induced migration (EIM) and why not climate refugees?

• How are poor people living in highly risky regions (affected by climate change and global environmental change (GEC) developing adaptation processes to overcome both social and environmental vulnerability and therefore defending their right for no-migration?

• How many EIM exists in ASEAN countries? There are few data & studies about EIM in ASEAN countries: Threat: 10% (550 million of people lives in 180, 498 islands; 30,000 in the Pacific; 22% of sovereign states are island, but occupy only 1.86% of surface with 13.1% of world heritage sides (UNESCO)

3. Some conceptual reflections

• There is no consensus in the concept on environmental-forced or induced migration ( EIM )

• There exist no reliable global statistics on EIM globally and by nations • EIM is a complex phenomena with multiples causes, reasons and impacts at

natural, personal, family , gender , community, national and international level • There is no consensus what should be considered and who should be studied?

– Rural or urban migrants: causes motivations, impacts (person, family, gender, community)

– Transnational migrants with communities in the diaspora – Policy of migration (state, country of origin, labour opportunities in the

destination, social support groups) – International governance of EIM (laws, facilities, environmental migrants)

• What are the causes that force EIM? Complex causes related to: – Environmental pollution , scarcity, degradation or stress – GEC : climate change, scarcity, water pollution, desertification, disasters – Combination of environmental and social vulnerability

• What are the dependent and independent variables? • What is the theoretical debate about EIM?

– Human-centred: anthropological , psychological , sociological – State-centred ( policies on migration , refugees, and asylum ) – International Regimes: evolution and implementation of agreements – Focused on human rights : protection, integration, citizenship, etc.

• What are the principal methodologies that should be applied in a EIM study?

Migration (3%)

and return

IOM, 2012

Environmental vulnerability

Pollution and overuse

of water Hunger, malnutrition,

overweight, junk food

Inequality, discrimi-

nation, inequity Poverty, misery,

homeless, insecurity

Social vulnerability

-Extreme events, disasters

-Socio-environmental migration

-Resource conflicts

Human, gender &

environmental

Security: HUGE

Consumerism, GHG,

resource depletion,

pollution, diseases

Demographic , rural

& urban pressure,

public insecurity

Scarcity and pollution

of water

Climate variability,

droughts and floods

Loss of soil fertility,

erosion,

desertification

Loss of ecosystem

services and

biodiversity

-Violence, crime -Ethnic & political conflicts -Urbanization -Environmental and social disasters -Unsustainable modernization -Social vulnerability -Economic crisis, misery Social classes, elite, crime

Source: Transformed by Oswald from Bohle, 2001

Interrelation of environmental and

social vulnerability

• Environmental vulnerability: related to pollution and water shortages, climate variability, short extreme hydrometeorological events (flash floods), medium (drought, erosion) and long-term (desertification) processes aggravate fragile soil conditions in areas of steep slopes, stony and shallow layers with a superficial horizon of fertility, dramatic loss of ecosystem services, water scarcity and pollution

• Triggering factors: incorrect use of soil, extensive livestock in dry tropical forest, over-fertilization in fragile soils, green revolution, erosion of the land, distribution of small plots of land among numerous male descendants producing smallholding (minifundism) and overexploitation of these mini plots

• Social vulnerability: population growth; urbanization, fractionation of irrigated land for urban resorts; neoliberal policy from 1985 & fast modernization process with indiscriminate importation of subsidized crops; short-term governmental interests, lack of preventive policies and social security support; unemployment; insufficient schools, public insecurity, organized crime, production of illegal crops, fight among criminal gangs for controlling trafficking routes, kidnapping, extortion and robbery

• Outcomes: historical poverty rise with acute marginalization, loss of welfare, crop failures, lack of social security, neglect from government fro counter-cyclical policies, abandonment of affected communities by climate variability, no early warning

4. Methodology

Combined methodology

• Quantitative approach: analysis of data series, official statistics, maps, satellite images; survey applied to 3,955 people belonging to 1,019 extended and nuclear households, based on representative sample.

• Questionnaire in five sections: General characteristics of housing; General information of residents and households; Education and language (indigenous); Marital status and economic activity; Internal and international migration; Productive activities; Community activities and local public responsibilities; Decision-making processes and interfamilial violence.

• Qualitative methods: emphasizes in the interpretation of the reality studied: deep interviews with local leaders, politicians and key persons in the communities and the basin, anthropological participative observation and focal groups, local social movements, case studies, participatory rural survey, and comparative regional studies, analysing adaptation processes and resilience-building of different communities exposed to similar environmental and social threats.

4. Disasters globally and

in ASEAN countries

Climate Threats, Disasters & Impacts

Earthquakes

MM: modified Mercalli scale

Tropical Hurricanes

Dangerous sea level rise

Permafrost thaw

Increase in droughts

Increase in heatwaves, droughts

Increase in heavy rain

e.g.,

e.g.,

e.g.,

e.g.,

e.g.,

Stronger storms

Major Floods 1985-2007

Droughts

36 months of drought conditions starting Sept 2011

302,800,000 People are under severe drought condition Data from UCL global drought monitor. Based on 36 months standardized precipitation index

Drought and environmental vulnerability due to

Climate change: Palmer drought severity index:

1900-2010

Social and environmental vulnerability

during 3 decades (1974-2003)

Source: Hoyois and Guha-Sapir (2004)

Total: 2,066’273 dead 5 ,076’ 494’ 541 affected

CAUSES OF REDUCED SEDIMENT LOAD Wang et al. (2006) Soil Erosion 40% Climate Change 30% Reservoir Trapping 30%

750 000 km2

Des Walling, 2008

The Evidence

Yellow River

Sedimentation in the Yellow River

Water pollution and degradation of

water quality

© U

NE

SC

O

2015

Source: U.N. Population Division

1950

Source: U.N. Population Division

World Cities exceeding 5 million

residents

5. Why is Asia and ASEAN so vulnerable?

Why is Asia so vulnerable in 2012?

1. 83 disasters - mostly floods - in 2012 killed some 3,100 people, affected 64.5 million and left behind US$15 billion in damage only in Asia. Flood is the most important event.

2. Worldwide 231 disasters killed some 5,400 people, affected 87 million and caused US$ 44.6 billion in damage.

3. From 1950 to 2011, nine out of 10 people affected by disasters worldwide were in Asia.

4. Since 2002, Philippines has had 182 recorded disasters, which killed almost 11,000 people.

5. Country tends to confront specific hazards, but urbanization in flood plain increase the risks of disasters and higher costs.

6. Indonesia and the Philippines have had many disasters but relatively few affected people, while Bangladesh and Thailand have had fewer disasters and more affected, while Pakistan and Vietnam fell in between the two categories.

Top ten countries by reported events

Sum of 10 most important disasters

Country Dead Affected

(000)

Damage

(000,000) US$

Types of

disaster

Inhabitants

(2013)

Brunei 0 0 0 ----- 407,000

Cambodia 1,831 14, 973.1 1,005.7 F, H,D 14,572,000

Indonesia 212,086 15, 977.1 24,307.4 E,Fi,V,T 248,731,000

Lao P.D.R. 1,256 8,165.4 479.5 H,F 6,581,000

Malaysia 1,057 1,104.5 1,926.1 D,T,H,E,F 30,476,000

Myanmar 145,001 5,704.6 4,724.8 E,F,Fi,H,L,T 62,342,000

Philippines 25,011 45,318.8 6,565.5 E,F, T 98,007,000

Singapore 36 2.34 0 H 5,437,000

Thailand 12,441 61,523.8 44,985.1 D,E,F,T 67,357,000

Vietnam 16,075 43,650.9 4.569.1 D,H,F,T 89,702,000

E: Earthquake; D: Drought; F: Flood; Fi: Fire; H: Epidemic; L: Landslide; T: Typhon; V: Volcano

10 most important disasters in Thailand

Risks and risk

society

Global Risks (Beck, 2012)

1. De-localization: causes and consequences are not limited to one space: they are omnipresent. Do not respect borders and nation states and have long latency period (e.g. toxic waste, CC): nation-state is not the frame cosmopolitan post-modern authorities

2. Incalculableness: unpredictable, complex, non-linear, global with local impacts and impersonal

3. Uncertainty: unknown, unpredictable future with cascading effects (Fukushima) or tipping points

4. Non-compensatibility: precautionary principle, preventive & proactive instead of reactive behaviour

What do we mean with risks, loss &

damages: for whom? causes & victims?

• Risks for whom – Damages for whom and from what?: cause nature; cost; social structure and mindset? – Loss for whom and from what? – Vulnerability: social and environmental – Divided world: due to different impacts and coping capacities

• Anticipating thresholds from what to what? – weather related hazards and extreme weather events

• rapid onset hazards • slow onset hazards

– dangerous or catastrophic climate change – chaotic consequences in the climate system (tipping points) – different world views, mindsets and interests

• Business-as-usual • Sustainability transition

Environmental and social vulnerability

Managing the risks: typoons in Asia

Economic losses from climate-related disasters have increased, with

large spatial and interanual variation, but are higher in industrialized

countries, while fatalities are higher in developing countries.

Social sciences incremental & transformative pathways to

resilience

8. Gender vulnerability

Why loss & damage?

• Consequence of failures to address mitigation and adaptation

• Part of the climate change agenda that is at the “pointy end”

• How to quantify? • Who is quantifying? • Only economic loss? • Disaster risk reduction and management • Support for climate negotiators? • Financing climate change? • Planning development with climate

change impacts • Challenging mindset? • Changing worldview?

Risk factors

• more variable rain

• ecosystem

degradation

• hotter days

• discrimination of

women

• poor health and

education

conditions

Gender vulnerability and women’s discrimination increase

vulnerability of exposed communities: even non-extreme events

can have extreme impacts in loss of lives and livelihood

Girardian: Revision of the Process Model, 2005

9. Adaptation an resilience-

building: top-down and bottom-up

Climate

Change

Mitigation,

Adaptation

Resilience

National/

International

Development

Alternatives: Prevention, resilience-building,

sustainable development, poverty alleviation,

planning, ecosystem recovery

Science

Bottom-up

Organization

of Society

Politics: EW,

Prevention,

Norms, Laws,

Institutions

HUGE-

security

Agenda of livelihood

-Policy of sustainability, equity and equality, negotiation of conflicts, community organization, income, -human rights, social obligations, fight against intrafamiliar violence, communitarian police

Agendas of vulnerability

Arenas of wellbeing

Arenas of vulnerability

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destroyed, vulnerable and neglected environments with highly social stratification

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-Lack of education, health, income and employment, governmental support, hunger, extreme poverty, institutional neglect, gender discrimination & violence, mestizo privilege, landlords, organized crime, illegal crops, community conflicts on resources

Thanks for your attention

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