mifo ryry1

5/10/2018 mifo ryry1

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8K E M A M P U A N R A S I O K E U A N G A ND A L A M M E M P R E D I K S I P E R I N G K A T O B L I G A S I( P T K A S N I C C R E D I T R A T I N G )R A H A R J AF a k u lt a s E k o n o m i U n i v e rs it a s D i p o n e g o roM A Y L IA P R A M O N O S A R IF a k u lt a s E k o n o m i U n iv e r s it a s N e g e ri S e m a r a n g

Abs t rakB o n d ra t in g is a g u id e to in v e s t o r w h o in te n d s to b u y b o n d b e c a u s e t h a t r a t in g g iv e s in f o rm a t iv e

s ta t e m e n t a n d g iv in g s ig n a l a b o u t c o m p a n y 's d eb t fa i lu r e p o s s ib i l i t y . T h e p u r p o s e s o f th is r e s e a r c h a r eg e t t in g m o r e e m p i r ic a l e v id e n d e n c e a b o u t th e a b i l i t y o f f in a n c ia l r a t io s in f o rm in g m o d e l th a t u s e d top r e d ic t b o n d r a t in g . T h e r e s u l ts s h ow th a t d is c r im in a n t a n a ly s is r e s u l t s a r e s ig n i f ic a n t r a t io s . I t u s e d 1 3m a nu fa c tu re s c om p a n ie s w ith 52 b o n d is s u an ce s f r o m 2004 t o 2005 . T h e b o n d p r e d ic t in g m o d e ls h a v ea c c u r a c y 96,2 % f o r d e s c r im in a n t a n a l is is . l t m e a n s t h e m o d e l c a n b e u s e d a s to o l in p re d ic tin g b o n dr a tin g fo r I n d o n e s ia n m a n u fa c tu re r c om p a n y in In d o n e s ia .K e yw o rd s ; : b o n d r a tin g , f in a n c ia l r a tio s ( le ve ra g e , l ik u id it y , s o lv ab il i t y , p ro fi t a b i l i t y d a n p ro d u k t iv i t y ),

d e s c r im in a n t a n a ly s is ( M D A ) a n d lo g is tic r e g r e ss io n .

P E N D A H U L U A NS a la h s a t u b e n t u k p e n d a n a a n y a n g d a p a t d i la k u k a n o le h s u a t u p e r u s a h a a n u n tu k m e m b ia y a i

in v e s t a s in y a a d a la h d e n g a n m e n e rb it k a n o b l ig a s i . O b lig a s l s e la in d ig u n a k a n s e b a g a i s a ra n a m e la k u ka ne k s p a n s i j u g a d a p a t d ig u n a k a n s e b a g a i s a ra n a d a la m m e m p e r k u a t p e rm o d a la n b a g i p e r u sa h a a n . O b lig a s ia d a la h s u ra t b e r h a rg a d a la m b e n tu k s e rt i f i k a t y a n g b e r is i k o n t r a k a n t a r a p e m b e r i p in ja m a n ( in v e s t o r )d e n c a n y a n g d ib e r i p in ja m a n ( e m it e n ) . O b lig a s i b a g i ln v e s t o rr n e r u p a ka n m e d ia in v e s t a s i a lt e m a t i f d ilu a rd e p o s i t o b a n k , s e d a n g ka n b a g i e m it e n o b l ig a s i in i m e ru p a ka n m e d ia s u m b e r d a n a d ilu a r k r e d i t p e r b a n ka n .P e m o d a l d a n in v e s t o r y a n g b e r m in a t m e m b e l j o b l lg a s i h a r u s m e r n p e r h a t k a n b e b e r a p a h a l , s a la h s a ru n y aa d a la h p e r in g ka t o b l lq a s t .

P e n n g ka t o b l ig a s i m e ru p a k a n s k a la r is i k o d a n s e m u a o b l lg a s i y a n g d ip e r d a g a n g k a n . S k a la t e rs e b u tm e n u n ju k k a n t in g k a t k e a m a n a n s u a t u o b l ig a s i b a g i in v e s t o r. K e a m a n a n in i d ir u n j u k k a n o le h k e m a m p u a ne m it e n ( s e b a g a i p e n e r b i t o b U g a s i ) d a la m m e m b a y a r b u n g a d a n p e lu n a s a n p o k o k o b l ig a s i p a d a a k h i rm a s a ja tu h t e r m o n y a . P e rin g k a t o b l ig a s i s a n g a t p e n tin g k a r e n a m a m p u m e m b e rt k a li p e m y a t a a n in fo rm a t i fd a n m e m b e r ik a n s ig n a l t e n ta n g p r o b a b i l i t a s k e g a g a la n u t a n g s u a t u p e r u s a h a a n ( A ltm a n a n d N a m m a c h e rd a la m K e t z a n d M a h e r , 1 9 9 0 ) . S e la in i t u d e n g a n a d a n y a p e m e rin g k a ta n o b l ig a s i o le h a g e n p em e rin g k a tm a k a in v e s t o r d a p a t m e m p e rh it u n g k a n r e t u r n y a n g a k a n d ip e r o le h d a n r is i k o y a n g d i t a n g g u n g . S e c a r a

K E M A MP UA N R AS IO K EU AN G A ND A lA M M E M PR E D IK SI P ER IN G K AT O B L IG A S I ( P T K AS N IC C R E D IT R A T IN G )

R A J IA R J A , M A Y U A P R A M ti ' f l o S A R I


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u m u m o b l ig a s i d ib a g i d a la m d u a p e r in g k a t y a it u i n v e s tm e n t g ra d e ( A A A , A A , A , B B B ) d a n n o n - i n v e s t m e n tg r a d e ( B B , B , e e e , d a n 0 ).

I n v e s t o r d a p a t m e m a n f a a t i< a n ja s a a g e n p e m e r in g k a t o b l ig a s i u n t u k m e n g e t a h u i in fo rm a s i m e n g e n a ip e r in g k a t o b l ig a s i y a n g b e r e d a r . A g e n p e m e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i m e r u p a k a n le m b a ~ in d e p e n d e n y a n gm e m b e r i k a n ja s a p e r u la la n d a n in fo rm a s i m e n g e n a i p e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i . D i I n d o n e s ia t e rd a p a t d u a a g e np em e r in g k a t s e k u r i t a s u ta n g y a i t u P T P E F IN O O ( P e m e r in g k a t E f e k I n d o n e s ia ) d a n P T K a s n ic C r e d it R a t in g( R a h a r d jo , 2 0 0 3 ) .S e ju m l a h p e n e li1 ia n y a n g m e n e li t i p re d ik s i p e rin g k a to b li g a s i b e rh a s i l d ik u m p u lk a n , n a m u n p e n e li t i a ns e r u p a d e n g a n m e n u a r r o l l k o n d is i p a s a r m o d a l I n d o n e s ia s u l i t d i t e m u k a n . P e m i l i h a n v a r ia b e l y a n gd id u g a d a p a t m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i m e n g a c u p a d a b e b e r a p a m o d e l p e n e l i t i a n t e r d a h u lu .B e b e r a p a p e n e l i t l a n t e rs e b u t m e n g g u n a k a n f a k to r a k u n t a n s i y a i t u r a s io k e u a n g a n d ia n t a ra n y a : H o r r ig a n( 1966) : P i n c h e s & M i n g o (1 9 73 ; 1 9 75 ): K a p l a n & U lW i t z ( 1979) ; C h a n & J a g a d e e s h ( 1 9 9 9 ) ; N u rh a s a n a h( 2 0 0 3 ), K e s u m a w a t i ( 2 0 0 3 ) d a n S a ri ( 2 0 0 4 ) . H a s i l p re d ik s i p e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n r a s iok e u a n g a n d it e m u k a n b e rb e d a -b e d a ,

P e n e l i t i t e la h m e la k u k a n p e n g u j i a n y a n g s a m a t e rh a d a p P T P E F IN D O ( P e m e r in g k a t E fe k I n d o n e -s ia ) u n t u k t a h u n 1 9 9 9 - 2 0 0 4 . T e la h d it e m u k a n h a s il b e b e r a p a r a s lo k e u a n g a n y a n g s ig n i f ik a n m e m p e n g a ru h ip e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i y a n g d i t e r b i t k a n o le h P T P E F IN O O . O a la m h a in i p e n e l i t i a k a n m e n c o b a m e n g u j ik e m b a l i k h u s u s n y a u n tu k P T K a s n ic C r e d it R a t in g t a h u n 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 0 6 .P E R U M U S A N M A S A L A H

D a r i l a ta r b e la k a n g t e r s e b u t m a k a p e rm a s a la h a n d a la m p e n e l i t i a n y a n g a k a n d i l a k u k a n a d a la hp e r t a m a , a p a k a h a d a p e r b e d a a n k in e r ja k e u a n g a n b e r u p a r a s io k e u a n g a n a n t a r a p e r u s a h a a n y a n go b li g a s in y a m a s u k in v e s tm e n t g ra d e (AM , AA , A d a n 8 B B ) d e n g a n p e r u s a h a a n y a n g o b l i g a s in y a m a s u kn o n - in v e s tm e n t g ra d e ( 8 B , B , c e e , d a n 0 ) . K e d u a , a p a k a h v a r ia b e l r a s io -r a s io k e u a n g a n d a p a t m e m b e n tu km o d e l d a n d a p a t d ig u n a k a n u n t u k m e m p r e d ik s i p e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i.T IN J A U A N P U S T A K A D A N P E N G E M B A N G A N H IP O T E S IS

T e o r i S i g n a lT e o r i s ig n a l m e n u n ju k k a n a d a n y a a s im e tr i in f o rm a s i a n t a r a p ih a k m a n a je m e n p e r u s a h a a n d a n

b e r b a g a i p ih a k y a n g b e r k e p e n t in g a n , b e rk a i t a n d e n g a n in fo rm a s i y a n g d ik e lu a r k a n t e r s e b u t . A s im e tr iin fo rm a s i d a p a t t e r j a d i d ia n ta ra d u a k o n d is i e k s t r e m y a i t u p e r b e d a a n in fo rm a s i y a n g k e c i l s e h in g g a t id a km e m p e n g a ru h i m a n a je m e n , a ta u p e r b e d a a n y a n g s a n g a t s ig n i f ik a n s e h in g g a d a p a t b e r p e n g a ru h t e rh a d a pm a n a je m e n d a n h a r g a s a h a m ( S a r t o n o , 1 9 9 6 ) . A s im e t r i in f o rm a s i m u n c u l k a r e n a a d a n y a s a la h s a tup ih a k y a n g m e m p u n y a i i n f o rm a s i l e b ih b a lk , m is a ln y a s e o r a n g m a n a je r y a n g m e n g e t a h u i i n fo rm a s im e n g e n a i p r o s p e k p e r u s a h a a n y a n g le b lh b a lk d ib a n d in g k a n d e n g a n in v e s t o r n y a . B e r k a i t a n d e n g a na s im e tr i i n fo rm a s i , s a n g a t s u li t b a g i p a r a in v e s t o r d a n k r e d it u r u n t u k m e m b e d a k a n a n t a ra p e r u s a h a a ny a n g b e r k u a l l t a s t l n g g i d a n r e n d a h . T e o r i s ig n a l m e n g e m u k a k a n b a g a im a n a s e h a r u s n y a p e r u s a h a a nm e m b e r i k a n s ig n a l p a d a p e n g g u n a la p o ra n k e u a n g a n . I n fo rm a s i b e ru p a p em b e r ia n p e r in g k a t o b li g a s iy a n g d ip u b li k a s ik a n d ih a r a p k a n d a p a t m e n ja d i s ig n a l k o n d is i k e u a n g a n p e r u s a h a a n d a n m e n g g a m b a rk a nk e m u n g k in a n y a n g t e r ja d i t e rk a l t d e n g a n u ta n g y a n g d im i l i k i.

JURNAL MAKSIVol . 8 N o.2 A gu slus 2 00 8 : 212232

~.


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P e r in g k a t O b l ig a s i ' \O b li g a s i a d a la h s u ra t u ta n g ja n g k a p a n ja n g y a n g d a p a t d ip in d a h t a n g a n ka n y a n g b e r i s i ja n j i d a r i

p ih a k y a n g m e n e r b i t k a n u n t u k m e m b a y a r im b a la n b e r u p a b u n g a p a d a p e r io d e t e r t e n tu d a n m e lu n a s ip o k o k u ta n g p a d a w a k t u y a n g t e la h d it e n t u k a n k e p a d a p lh a k p e m b e li o b l i g a s l t e rs e b u t. S e o r a n g p e m o d a ly a n g t e r t a r i k u n t u k m e rn b e l l o b l ig a s i t e n t u n y a h a r u s m e m p e r h a t i k a n p e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i . P e r in g k a tm e ru p a k a n s e b u a h p e r n y a t a a n t e n t a n g k e a d a a n p e n g u t a n g d a n k e m u n g k in a n a p a y a n g b is a d a n a k a nd ila k u k a n s e h u b u n g a n d e n g a n u ta n g y a n g d im i l i k i . D a p a t c lk a t a k a n b a h w a p e r t n g k a tm e n c o b a m e n g u k u rr i s lk o k e g a g a la n , y a i t u p e lu a n g e m it e n a ta u p e m i n ja m a k a n m e n g a la m i k o n d is i t i d a k m a m p u m e m e n u h ik e w a jib a n k e u a n g a n n y a ( F o s te r, 1 9 8 6 ). P e rin g k a t o b l ig a s i p e r u s a h a a n d ih a r a p k a n d a p a t m e m b e rt k a np e t u n ju k b a g i i n v e s t o r t e n t a n g k u a l i t a s in v e s t a s i o b l i g a s i y a n g m e r e k a m i n a t i .

F u n g s i P e r in g k a t O b l ig a s iE n a m f u n g s i d a r i p e m e r in g k a t a n L lt a n g p e r u s a h a a n a d a fa h ( F o s te r , 1 9 8 6 ) :1 . S u m b e r in fo r m a s i s u p e rio r a ta s k e rn a r n p u a n p e r u s a h a a n a t a u p e m e r in t a h u n t u k m e m b u a t

k e t e p a ta n w a k t u p e m b a y a r a n k e m b a l i u t a n g p o k o k d a n t in g k a t b u n g a y a n g d ip in ja m k a n .s u p e n o n ta s in i t im b u l d a r i k em a m p u a n u n t u k m e n g a n a li s i s in fo rr n a s i u m u m a ta u m e n g a k s e sin fo rm a s i r a h a s ia .

2 . S u m b e r d e n g a n b ia y a r e n d a h b a g i k e lu a s a n in f o rm a s i k r e d i t , t e r k a i t c ro ss s ec tio na n t a r p e r u s a h a a n , p e m e rin t a h d a e r a h d a n p e m e rin t a h . P e n g u m p u la n in f o rm a s i t e n t a n gs e ju m la h p e r u s a h a a n s w a s t a , p e r u s a h a a n p em e r in ta h a ta u p e m e r in ta h d a e ra h d a p a t s a n g a tm a h a l . H a l i n i a k a n le b ih e fe k t i f j i k a in f o rm a s i t e r s e b u t d id a p a t d a r i s u a t u a g e n y a n gm e n g u m p u lk a n , m e m p ro s e s , d a n m e n y im p u lk a n I n fo rm a s i t e rs e b u td e n c a n m u d a h ( d a la mb e n t u k s k a la r a ti ng po in t ).

3 . S u m b e r " lega l i n su rance " u n t u k p e n g a w a s in v e s t a s i . M e m b a ta s i i n v e s t a s i s e k u r l t a s u ta n gh a n y a p a d a t in g k a tk a t e g o r i y a n g t in g g i s a ja .

4 . S u m b e r s e rt i f i k a s i t a m b a h a n t e rh a d a p u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n d it e ta p k a n , h a l t e rs e b u t m e ru p a k a nr e p u ta s i b e r u p a r i s ik o . P e r in g k a t m e r u p a k a n in s e n t i f b a g i p e r u s a h a a n y .a n g b e r s a n g k u ta n ,m e n g e n a i k e le n g k a p a n a ta u k e te ta p a n w a k t u d a r i l a p o ra n k e u a n g a n . P e ru s a h a a n p e r in g k a td a p a t m e n y a ji k a n s e r t l f ik a t k u a li t a s in fo rm a s i y a n g d ib e r i k a n o le h p e n e r b it a ta s s e k u r i t a su ta n g y a n g d lb e r 'k a n p e rin g k a t.

5 . M o n i t o r t e r h a d a p k e g ia t a n m a n a je m e n .6 . M e m u d a h k a n k e b i j a k a n p u b l l k y a n g m e la r a n g I n v e s t a s l s p e k u la t i f o le h in s t i t u s i , s e p e r t i :

b a n k , p e r u s a h a a n a s u ra n s l d a n d a n a p e n s iu n .P T K a s n ic C r ed t R a tin g a k a n m e m p u b l i k a s ik a n p e r t n g k a t o b l ig a s i p e r u s a h a a n d a n in v e s t o r d a p a t

d e n g a n m u d a h m e m p e r o le h in f o rm a s i t e r s e b u t s e c a r a b e b a s . S im b o l p e m e rin g k a t a n y a n g d ig u n a k a no le h P T K a s n ic C ra dt R a tin g s e r u p a d e n g a n y a n g d ig u n a k a n o le h S tan da rd an d Poet ' s . T a b e l b e r i k u tm e n u n ju k k a n d e f in is i p e r in g k a t m e n u r u t P T K a s n ic C r ed it R a tin g a d a la h s e b a g a i b e rt k u t:

K EM A M PU AN R AS IO K EU AN G A ND A L A M M EM P R E D IK S I P ER 1N G K A T 0 8 L IG A S l (P r K A S N I C C R ED " R A nN G )

RAHA RJ~ .M~YU~PR A I rIO loS A I II


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P r o f i l P T K a s n i c C r e d it R a t in gK A S N I C C r e d it R a t in g I n d o n e s ia m e ru p a k a n s e b u a h b e n tu k k e rj a s a m a a n t a ra K a s n ic C r e d it R a t in g

d e n g a n F IT C H s e b a g a i s h a r e h o ld e r . K e p e m i l ik a n P T K A S N IC d ib a g i m e n ja d i d u a y a i t u 7 0 % m i l i k P TK A S N IC d a n 3 0 % m i l i k D u f f & P h e lp s C r e d i t R a t in g . P a d a t a n g g a l1 J u n i 2 0 0 0 , D u ff & P h e l p s C r e d it R a t in gm e r g e r d e n g a n F I T C H I BeA . P e r in g k a t e f e k y a n g d ib e ri k a n o le h P T K A S N IC C r e d it R a t in g m e m b e r i k a ng a m b a r a n t e n t a n g k e m a m p u a n e m i t e n u n t u k m e m e n u h i k e w a j ib a n m e m b a y a r b u n g a d a n p o k o k s e c a r at e p a t w a k tu d a n d a la m ju m la h y a n g s e s u a i. P e r in g k a t d ih a s i l k a n s e te la h m e m p e r h a t i k a n p e rb a n d in g a na n t a r i n d u s t r i d a n a n t a r e m i t e n . A n a l i s is p e m e r in g k a t a n e fe k d il a k u k a n b e r d a s a r k a n :

1 . L a p o ra n K e u a n g a n t ig a s a r n p a l l im a t a h u n s e b e lu m n y a .2 . A n a l i s is s e k to ra l d a n in d u s t r i3 . P r o y e k s i K e u a n g a n4 . P e r k i r a a n k in e r ja d im a s a y a n g a k a n d a t i n g o le h m a n a je m e n e m i t e n .M e to d o lo g i p e m e rin g k a t a n te r u t a m a m e m p e r h a t ik a n r i s ik o u s a h a d a n r i s i k o k e u a n g a n . S e c a r a

k h u s u s , d a la m ja n g k a p e n d e k d ie v a lu a s i f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g a k a n d e n g a n s e g e r a m e m p e n g a ru h i k o n d is ;k e u a n g a n e m it e n , s e p e r t i l i k u id it a s , s ik lu s k o n v e rs i a s s e t d a n t i n g k a t k e y a k in a n p a d a k in e r ja . P e r in g k a ty a n g d ib e r ik a n d id a s a r k a n p a d a p e r t im b a n g a n : R i s ik o in d u s t r i , P o s l s l p a s a r d a n l in g k u n g a n o p e r a s l o n a l ,K o m p e t e n s i m a n a je m e n p e r u s a h a a n , R is i k o K e u a n g a n , K u a l i t a s d a r i d a t a d a n la p o r a n k e u a n g a n ,P e n d a p a ta n d a n a r u s k a s , S t r u k t u r u t a n g d a n m o d a l , P e n d a n a a n d e n g a n p e r u s a h a a n la in y a n g s e je n is ,A n a l is a s e n s i t iv it a s , S t r u k t u r k e lo m p o k u s a h a , B a c k - u p p o li c y , d a n K e r a h a s la a n .R e v ie w P e n e li t ia n Ie rdahu lu

S e ju m l a h p e n e li t ia n y a n g m e n e li t i p re d lk s i p e ri n g k a t o b ll g a s i b e r h a s l l d ik u m p u lk a n , n a m u n p e n e li t ia ns e r u p a d e n g a n m e n g a m b i l k o n d is i p a s a r m o d a l I n d o n e s ia s u l i t d i t e m u k a n . H a s H p r e d ik s i p e r in g k a to b l ig a s i d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n r a s io k e u a n g a n d it e m u k a n b e r b e d a -b e d a o le h b e b e r a p a p e n e l i t i . T a b e lb e r i k u t r n e n u n lu k k a n r a n g k u m a n p e r b a n d in g a n b e b e r a p a p e n e l i t i a n t e r d a h u lu y a n g m e n ja d i a c u a np e m i l i h a n v a r l a b e l i n d e p e n d e n y a n g m a m p u m e m p re d i k s i p e r i n g k a t o b l ig a s i .

K E M A M PU A N R A S IO K E U A N G A NO A lA M M E M P R E O IK S I P E R iN G K A T O B U G I I S I (P T K AS N IC C R E DfT R AT IN G )

R AH AR JA , M A YU A I'R AM O ~ S AR I


6/19

R in g k a s a n P e n e li t i a n T e r d a h u luP E N E U T I V A R I A B E L T lP E A N A L IS IS V A R IA B E L IN D E P EN D E N T E R B A IK

I N D E P E N D E NH O R R IG A N (1 9 66 ) R a s ia k eu a n ga n + M u ltip le R e g re ss io n S ub ord in alio n;T A ; W C I / s a le s; n et w o r th {T L , s a le s/ n et w o r th ;

s u b o r d i n a t i o n a n d n e t o p e ra ti ng p r of it s/ s al es .P I N C H E S & M I N G O R a s ia k e ua n ga n + M u ltip le D is c rim in an t S ub ord in at io n; is su e s iz e ; n et in c om e + i n t e re s t / i n t e re s t ;( 1 9 7 5 ) s u b o r d i n a t i o n An a l y s i s ( M D A ) y ea rs o f c on se cu tiv e d iv id e nd s; L T L /T A ; n e t in co m e /T A .K A P L A N & U R W I T Z R a s ia k e ua n ga n O r d in a ry L e a st S u b o rd in a tio n s ta tu s ; s iz e ; e a rn in g s S f E b il ity ; le v er ag e ;( 1 9 7 9 ) S q u a r e s r e gr e ss io n e a rn in g c o ve ra g e o f in te re s t, d a n p ra fita b il i ta s .

a n a l y s i s ( O l S )C H A N , R a s lo k e u a n g a n M D A , M D A c ro s s P re ta x re tu rn o n p erp erm e nt c ap ita l; R O A ; re tu rn o n s to ck ;J A G A D E E S H & v alid a t io n p ro ce du re , E /P ; D /P ; R O A v ar ia b ili ty ; p re ta x re tu rn v ar ia b ili ty ; p re ta xW A R G A (1 99 9) o rd e re d p ro M in te re st c ov era ge ; p re ta x in te re st c ov era ge in clu d in g re n t;

(P ro M ), a nd P ro b it E B IT D A in te re st c ov era ge ; c as h f lo w /T L ; c as h tJ o w /L T L ; f re ew ith s te pw is e v ar ia be l c as h t lo w /T L ; tre e c as h f lo w /L T L; L T L /T A ;S T D /L T D ; d e fe rre ds e le c t io n ( p ro b it -S ) ta x es / L T D ; M V o f T A ; M V o f c om m on e q uity ; B M ; s a le s

g ro w th in re ce n t 3y e ar s; A s s e t tu rn o ve r; r ec e iv a bletu rn ov er ; c ur re nt ra lio ; q u ic k ra tio ; s iz e o f b on ds ; a ndd iv i dend / i n t e re s t .

N U R H A S A N A H R a s ia K e u an g an M D A & L o g is t ik L T L /T A ; N W / T A ; C A lC L; N W / F A ; C O G S /N S( 2 0 0 3 )lU S I (2 00 3) R a s ia K e u an g an M u l tip le D i sc r im i n a n( T L /T A (D E B T) ; N I A T /T A (R O A ) ; R E /T A ; A R (S /3 6 5 ); S /F A

An a l y s i s ( M D A )M A Y L IA P R AM O NO R a s io K B u a n ga n M D A L e v er ag e ( L E V L T L T A ) ,lik u id ita s ( U K C A l C L ), s o lv e ns iS A R I (2 0 04 ) ( S O L e F O T L ) p ro ti la b il i ta ( P R O F O I S ) d a n p ro d u kt iv if E s

( P R O D S F A )G A B R I E L P .A R a s ia K e u an g an M D A U k uid ita s (C A C L ) , P ro du kt iv ila s (C O I N & S LAR ) , l e v e r a g e

JURNAL MAKSIVol . 8 NO .2 A g lis iu s 2 0 0 8: 212 - 232 . " 1 1 .


7/19

K e ra n g k a B e r p ik irP e ru s a h a a n y a n g m e m i l ik i r a s io l i k u id it a s ; s o l v a b il i t a s , p ro fi t a b i l l t a s d a n p ro d u k t iv it a s y a n g t in g g i

s e r t a r a s io le ve ra g e y a n g r e n d a h , b e ra rf b a h w a k in e rj a p e r u sa h a a n te rs e b u t b a ik s e h in g g a m a s u k d a la r nk a t e g o r i I n v e s tm e n t G r a d e . S e d a n g k a n p e ru s a h a a n y a n g m e m i l i k l r a s io l ik u id it a s ; s o lv a b i l i t a s , p ro f i t a b il i t a sd a n p ro d u k t lv it a s y a n g r e n d a h s e rt a r a s io le v e ra g e y a n g t in g g i, b e r a rt i b a h w a k in e r ja p e r u s a h a a n t e rs e b u tb u ru k s e h in g g a m a s u k d a l a m k a t e g o r i N o n I n v e s tm e n t G r a d e

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+CurrentAs se t ICurrentLiabilities

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+C a sh F lowfromOperat ion ITota lLiabilities ,

Profitability(X4)+Opera t ingIncome I

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Sales I Tota lA s s e t

R a tin g Ob lig a siIn ve stm en t G rade (Y )

Ra tin g Ob lig a siN on In ve s tm en t G rade (Y)

P e n g e m b a n g a n H ip o t e s isD a la m p e n e li t i a n in i, h i p o te s is y a n g d ia ju ka n u n t u k m e n g e ta h u i k e m a m p u a n r a s io k e u a n g a n d a la m

m e m p r e d ik s i p e r in g k a t o b l ig a s i d in ya ta k a n d a la m h ip o te s i s a lt e r n a ti f ( H a ) s e b a g a i be r i ku tH 1 T e r d a p a t r a s io k e u a n g a n ( l e v e ra g e , l ik u id i t a s , s o lv a b il i t a s , p ro fi t a b il i t a s d a n p ro d u k t iv i t a s )

y a n g m e m b e d a k a n s e c a r a s ig n i f i k a n a n t a r a p e r u s a h a a n y a n g te rm a s u k d a la m i n v e s t -m e n t g ra d e d a n n o n - in v e s tm e n t g ra d e .

H 2 S e p e r a n g k a t r a s lo k e u a n g a n ( le v e r a g e , l ik u id l t a s , s o lv a b i l i t a s , p r o f i t a b i l i t a s d a np r o d u k t iv i t a s ) m e m p u n y a i k e m a m p u a n m e m b e n t u k m o d e l u n t u k m e m p r e d ik s i p e r in g k a to b l i g a s i .

K EM AM ~U AN R A S IO K EU A N G A ND A L AM M E M P R E D IK S I P E R IN G KA T O B LIG A S I ( P T K A SN IC C R E D JT R An N G )

R A H AR JA . M A Y UA P R AM ~ NO S A RI


8/19

M E T O D E P E N E L IT IA NP e n e l i t i a n in i m e n g g u n a k a n p o p u la s i s e m u a p e r u s a h a a n m a n u fa k t u r y a n g m e n e rb it k a n o b l i g a s i .

P e r u s a h a a n m a n u f a k t u r t e rs e b u t t e r d a tt a r d i B u r s a E fe k J a k a r t a ( B E J ) s e r t a t e r d a f t a r d a la m p e r in g k a to b l ig a s i y a n g d ik e lu a r k a n o le h P T K A S N IC C r e d it R a t in g . P e r io d e y a n g d i ja d ik a n a m a t a n a d a la h d a t ap e r i o d e ta h u n 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 0 6 . D a ta y a n g d ig u n a k a n a d a la h d a t a s e k u n d e r y a n g d ip e r o le h d a r i d a t a b a s el a p o ra n k e u a n g a n y a n g t e rs e d ia d i P P A ( P u s a t P e n g e m b a n g a n A k u n t a n s i ) U G M , I n d o n e s ia C a p it a l M a rk e tD i r e c t o ry ( I C M D ) d a n d a t a b a s e p e r i n g k a t o b l ig a s i p e r u s a h a a n y a n g d ik e lu a r k a n o le h P T K A S N IG C r e d i tR a t i n g . D a ta y a n g d ig u n a k a n b e r u p a r a s io k e u a n g a n d a r i n e r a e a , la p o r a n r u g i la b a d a n la p o r a n k a s .S a m p e l d ip il i h d a r i p o p u la s i p e r u s a h a a n y a n g o b l i g a s in y a t e rd a f t a r d i a g e n P T K A S N IG C re d it R a t in g d a nd i p e r d a g a n g k a n d i B u rs a E fe k J a k a rt a ( B E J ) . S a m p e l d ip il ih d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n m e to d e p e n y a rn p e la nb e r s a s a r a n ( p u rp o s iv e s a m p lin g ) s e h in g g a d ip e r o le h s a m p e l y a n g r e p r e s e n t a ti f s e s u a i d e n g a n k r i t e ri ay a n g d it e n tu k a n . A d a p u n k r i t e ri a y a n g d ig u n a k a n a d a la h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t:

1 . S e m u a p e r u s a h a a n m a n u f a k t u r y a n g t e r d a t t a r d i B u r s a E f e k J a k a r t a ( B E J ) d a n t e r d a f t a rd a la m p e r in g k a o b l i g a s i y a n g d ik e lu a r k a n o le h P T K A S N IC d a la m p e r io d e 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 0 6 .

2 . P e r u s a h a a n te r s e b u t m e n e r b i t k a n d a n m e m p u b l i k a s i k a n la p o r a n k e u a n g a n t a h u n a n s e c a r ale n g k a p d a n t e ro a p a t i t e m o b l i g a s i d a la m la p o ra n k e u a n g a n t e rs e b u tV a r i a b e l D e p e n d e n

V a r ia b e l d e p e n d e n y a n g h e n d a k d iu ji b e r u p a p e r i n g k a t o b l i g a s i y a n g s e c a ra u m u m te rb a g i m e n ja d id u a p e r in g k a t y a i t u in v e s tm e n t g ra d e ( A A A , A A , A , B B B ) d a n n o n -in v e s tm e n t g ra d e ( B B , B , C G G , d a n 0 ) .V a r ia b e l in i m e n g u k u r t i n g k a t p e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i p e r u s a h a a n d e n g a n m e m b e r i n il a i p a d a m a s in g -m a s in gp e r in g k a t d e n g a n m e n g a c u p a d a p e n e l i t ia n t e rd a h u lu s e r t a d is e s u a ik a n d e n g a n k a te g o r i p e r in g k a t o b l ig a s iy a n g d i k e lu a rk a n o le h P T K A S N IC C r e d it R a t in g .

V a r i a b e l l n d e p e n d e nV a ria b e l i n d e p e n d e n y a n g h e n d a k d iu ji d a la m p e n e l m a n in i a d a la h r a s io k e u a n g a n y a n g p e r n a h d iu ji

o le h b e b e ra p a p e n e li t i t e rd a h u lu d a n d is e s u a ik a n d e n g a n d a t a y a n g t e rs e d ia , y a i t u b e ru p a la p o ra n k e u a n g a ny a n g t e rd a p a t d a la m la p o ra n k e u a n g a n y a n g d ip u b lik a s ik a n . P e n e l i t i a n in i m e n g g u n a k a n b e b e r a p a r a s ios e b a g a i p ro k s i d a ri l e v e ra g e , l ik u id it a s , s o l v a b il i t a s , p r o f i t a b i l i t a s , d a n p ro d u k t i f i t a s p e r u s a h a a n .

R a s io le v e r a g e m e n u n ju k k a n p r o p o r s i p e n g g u n a a n u t a n g u n t u k m e m b ia y a i in v e s t a s i t e r h a d a pm o d a l y a n g d im i l ik i . R e n d a h n y a n i la i r a s io l e v e ra g e d a p a t d ia rt ik a n b a h w a h a n y a s e b a g ia n k e e il a k t i v ad id a n a i d e n g a n h u t a n g d a n s e m a k in k e e i l r is i k o k e g a g a la n p e r u s a h a a n . S e m a k in r e n d a h le v e r a g ep e r u s a h a a n m a k a s e m a k in b a lk p e r i n g k a t p e r u s a h a a n te rs e b u t ( B u r t o n , A d a m & H a rd w ic k , 1 9 9 8 ) .

R a s io l i k u id i t a s m e n u n ju k k a n k e m a m p u a n p e r u s a h a a n u n t u k m e m e n u h i k e w a ji b a n t e r h a d a p u ta n gJ a n g k a p e n d e k . P e n e l i t i a n C a r s o n & S c o t t ( 1 9 9 7 ) d a n B o u z o it a & Y o u n g ( 1 9 9 8 ) d a la m B u r t o n , A d a m &H a rd w ic k ( 1 9 9 8 ) r n e n e rn u k a n h u b u n g a n a n ta ra I ik u id it a s d e n g a n p e rin g k a t u ta n g . S e m a k in t i n g g i l i k u id it a sm a k a s em a k in b a ik p e r in g k a t p e r u s a h a a n te rs e b u t .

R a s io s o lv a b i l i t a s m e n u n ju k k a n k e m a m p u a n p e r u s a h a a n u n tu k m e m e n u h i s e m u a k e w a j ib a n b a ikj a n g k a p a n ja n g m a u p u n ja n g k a p e n d e k y a n g ja tu h t e m p o . D a la m p e n e l i t i a n n y a H o rr ig a n ( 1 9 6 6 ) m e n e m u k a nb a h w a r a s io s o lv a b i l i t a s c e n d e r u n g s ig n i f ik a n b e r p e n q a ru n p o s it i f d e n g a n p e r in g k a t o b l ig a s i . S e m a k ink e c i l a n g k a r a s io in i r n a k a s e m a k in k e c l l f le k s ib iJ i t a s k e u a n g a n p e r u s a h a a n d a n s e m a k in b e s a rk e m u n g k in a n p e r u s a h a a n m e n g h a d a p i m a s a la h k e u a n g a n d i m a s a y a n g a k a n d a t a n g . S e m a k in t i n g g i

JURNAL MAKSIVol . 8N o .2 A g us lU s 2 0 0 8: 212 232


9/19

s o lv a b il i t a s p e r u s a h a a n m a k a s e m a k in b a ik p e r in g k a t p e r u s a h a a n t e rs e b u t .R a s io p r o f i t a b i l i t a s m e n u n ju k k a n k e m a m p u a n p e r u s a h a a n m e m p e r o le h la b a b a ik d a la m

h u b u n g a n n y a d e n g a n p e n ju a la n , t o ta l a k t iv a m a u p u n la b a b a g i m o d a l s e n d i r i . P r o f i t a b i l i t a s in i m e m b e r ik a ng a m b a ra n s e b e r a p a e fe k t i f p e r u s a h a a n b e r o p e ra s i s e h in g g a m e m b e ri k a n k e u n tu n g a n b a g i p e r u s a h a a n .M e n u r u t B r o tm a n ( 1 9 8 9 ) d a n B o u z o i t a & Y o u n g ( 1 9 9 8 ) d a la m B u r t o n , A d a m & H a rd w ic k ( 1 9 9 8 ) s e m a k int i n g g i t i n g k a t p r o f i t a b i l i t a s p e ru s a h a a n r n a k a s e m a k in r e n d a h r l s lk o k e tid a k m a m p u a n m e m b a y a r (de-fault) d a n s e m a k in b a ik p e r in g k a t y a n g d ib e r i k a n t e rh a d a p p e r u s a h a a n t e rs e b u t .R a s io p ro d u k t i v it a s in i m e n g u k u r s e b e ra p a e fe k t i f p e r u s a h a a n m e n g g u n a k a n s u m b e r - s um b e r d a n ay a n g d im i l i k i p e r u s a h a a n . H a s lo in i s e c a ra s ig n i f i k a n b e r p e n g a ru h p o s i t i f t e rh a d a p p e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i( H o r r ig a n , 1 9 6 6 ) . S e m a k in t i n g g i p r o d u k t i v i t a s p e r u s a h a a n m a k a s e m a k in b a ik p u la p e r in g k a t y a n gd ib e r i k a n p a d a p e ru s a h a a n t e r s e b u t

D A F T A R P E N G U K U R A N V A R IA B E L P E N E L IT IA NV a rib e l T e ru k u r I n d i k a l o r / P r o x v S k a l a l n s t r u m e n

V a r i a b e l D e l ! e n d e nP e r in g k a t O b l ig a s i . I n ve stm e n t g ra de ; N o n - In ve s tm e n t g ra de N om in a l P e r in g k a t o b l ig a s i b e r d a s a r

P T . K a s n ic C r e dit R a tin gV a r i a b e l l n d e l ! e n d e n

R a s ia k eu a ng a n)t L e v e r a g e T o t al L ia b il it ie s / E q u it y (rtf) R a s i a L a p . K e u

L on gte rm U a b il it ie s/ T o ta l A s s et ( L T L TA ) k e u a n g a nx L i k u i d i t a s C u rre nt A s s et/ C u rre nt L ia b il i t ie s (C A C L ) R a s lo L a p .K e u

C u rre nt A s s et - I n ve nto rie s/ C u rre nt L ia b il i t ie s = k e u a n g a nQ u ic k R a tio (C A lC L )

C u rre (l l L ia b i l it ie s/W o rk in g C a p ita l (C L W C ) C u rre n t L ia b i l it ie s / T o ta l A s se t (C L T A ) C a sh F lo w f ro m O p e ra tin g/ C u rre nt L ia b i l it ie s

( C F O C L ) W o rk in g C a p ita l/ T o ta l A ss e t (W C T A ) ~

x S o l v e n s i N e t W o r th /T ota l L ia b il i t ie s (N W T L ) R a s ia L a p . K e u N et W o rth / F ix e d A ss e t (N W F A ) k e u a n g a n N e t W o r th / L o n g T e rm L ia b il i t ie s (N W L T L ) C a sh F lo w f ro m O p e ra t io n s/ T ota l L ia b il i t ie s

( C F O T L ) (N e t W o r th + L o n g T e rm L ia b il i t ie s ) / F ix ed A ss e t(N W L T L FA )

)C P r o f i t a b i l i t a s O p era tin g In co m e/S a le s = O IS R a s lo L a p . K e u N e t In c o m e A fte r T ax /T o ta l A ss e t (N iA T T A ) k e u a n g a n N e t In c o m e A fte r T a x /N e t W o r th (N IA TN W ) N e t In c o m e A fte r T a x /N e t S a le s (N lA TN S ) C a s h F lo w f ro m O p e ra t in g / T o ta l S a le s (C F O T S )

x P r o d u k t i v i t a s S a le s { f a ta l A s s e t (S T A ) R a s ia L a p . K e u C os t o f G o o d S o ld /S a le s (C G SS ) k e u a n g a n C a s h F lo w f r o m O p era tin !V T o ta l A s s e t ( C FO T A ) S a le s/F ix e d A s se ts (S FA )

K EM A M PU AN R AS IO K E UA NG A ND A L A M M E M P R E D IK S I P ER IN G K A T O B L IG A S I ( P T K AS N IC C R E Dr r R A T IN G )

R A J/ A M , M A Y U A P R AM " B N O S A R I


10/19

T e k n ik A n a l is isA lt e r n a t i f y a n g d ig u n a k a n u n tu k m e m p r e d i k s i p e rin g k a t o b lig a s i a d a la h a n a l is ls d is k r im in a n d a n

r e g r e s i lo g is t ik . K e d u a n ya d i r a n c a n g u n tu k m e la ku k a n p r e d ik s i k e a n g g o ta a n g ru p . P e n e li t i k a l i in i a k a nm e n g g u n a k a n a la t a n a l is is d is k r im in a n (M D A ) s e s u a i d e n g a n p e n e li t ia n P in c h e s & M i n g o ( 1975 ) d a nA l tm a n ( 1 9 68 ).

H ip o t e s is p e r t a m a a k a n d iu j i m e n g g u n a k a n u j i M a n n ~ W h it n e y T e s t j i k a d a t a b e r d is t r ib u s i t id a kn o rm a l d a n u j i I n d e p e n d e n t S a m p le T e s t j i k a d a t a b e r d is t r ib u s i n o rm a l. P e n g u j i a n i n i d ig u n a k a n u n tu km e n g u j i d u a s a m p e l y a n g t id a k b e r h u b u n g a n ( in d e p e n d e n ) a n t a r a p e r u s a h a a n y a n g in v e s tm e n t g ra d e( M A , A A , A d a n B S S ) d a n n o n in v e s tm e n t g ra d e ( S S , S , e e e d a n D ) . D a sa r p e n g a m b i la n k e p u tu sa n d a la mp e n g u jia n i n i a d a la h j ik a p ro b a b i l i t a s > 0 ,0 5 m a k a b e r a rt i t id a k a d a p e r b e d a a n , s e b a lik n y a i ik a p ro b a b i l i t a s< 0 ,0 5 b e r a r t i a d a p e r b e d a a n a n ta ra k e d u a s a m p e l t e r s e b u t . D le h k a r e n a i t u s e b e lu m n y a p e r lu d i la k u k a nu ji n o n n a li t a s d a t a d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n o n e -s a m p le K o lm o g r o f S m i r n o v t e s t . H lp o t e s is k e d u a a k a n d iu jid e n g a n a la t s t a tis t i k , y a it u a n a lis is d is k r im i n a n u n t u k m e li h a t k e ku a t a n p re d ik s in y a , S e b e lu m h ip o t e s is 2d iu ji , d ila k u k a n s e le k s i t e rh a d a p v a ria b e l in d e p e n d e n y a n g s ig n i f i k a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n t e k n ik p ro s e d u rS t e p w i s e . M e to d a in i d im a k s u d k a n u n tu k m e n e n t u k a n r a s io k e u a n g a n y a n g s a n g a t e f is i e n d a la mm e m b e d a k a n k a t e g o r i p e r in g k a t o b l ig a s i p e r u s a h a a n , A n a l is is d a t a d i la k u k a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a nb a n tu a n S P S S 1 1 . 0 0 f o r w in d ow s (G h o z a l i , 2 0 0 1 ) .

M a de l F un gs i D is krim in an

Z = W 1 X 1 + W 2 X 2 + W 3 X 3 + + W n X nNolasi:Z : D is cr im in an t S c or eW n : D is cr im in an t w eigh ts for in de pe nd en t v aria ble s nX i, X 2 , X 3 , ,., X n : Ra s io -r as io k e u an g a n

U n tu k m e m u tu s k a n h ip o t e s is 2 d it e r im a a ta u d it o la k , k r i t e r ia y a n g p a lin g p e n t in g a d a la h n i la i d a r io v e ra ll p e r c e n ta g e c o rr e c t, k a re n a d a r i n ila l ln i d ik e ta h u i v a ri a b e l d e p e n d e n m a n a y a n g p ro b a b i l i t a s n y ap a l in g b e s a r d a n d a r l n i la i in l d ip e r o le h p e r in g k a t y a n g d ih a r a p k a n s e s u a i d e n g a n p e r in g k a t y a n gd ik e lu a r k a n o le h a g e n p e r in g k a t o b l ig a s i .H A S IL P E N E L I T IA N D A N P E M B A H A S A N

U ji N orm a lita s D a taU n tu k m e n g e ta h u i d a t a t e r s e b u t b e r d is t r ib u s i n o rm a l, m a ka d a ta y a n g d ig u n a k a n d a la m p e n e l i t ia n

t e ~ e b ih d a h u lu d iu ji n o rm a li t a s n y d e n g a n O n e S im p le K o lm o g r o v S m ir n o v T e s t . U j i N o rm a l i t a s d ila k u k a nt e r h a d a p s e m u a v a r ia b le in d e p e n d e n y a n g d ig u n a k a n d a la m p e n e l i t ia n . H a s i l p e n g u j ia n m e n u n ju k k a nb a h w a d a r i k e l im a v a r ia b le i n d e p e n d e n te r s e b u t b e r d i s t r ib u s i n o rm a l y a n g d i t u n ju k k a n o le h n ila i A s y m p .S i g ( N a i le d ) d ia ta s 0 ,0 5 ( p ro b a b i l i t a s < 0 ,0 5 ) . R in g k a s a n h a s i l u ji O n e S im p le K o lm o g r o v S m ir n o v T e s td a p a t d il ih a t p a d a t a b e l b e r ik u t:

JURNAL MAKSIVol. 8 No, 2 Agus tus 2 008 : 212 232


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R in g ka sa n h a sH One S im p le K alm ogrov S m irnov T es tN o V a r l a b e l l n d e p e n d e n A s y m p . S i g ( N a ile d ) D i s tr ib u s i D a t a1 L E V L T L T A 0 , 2 9 5 N o r m a l2 L l K C A C L 0 , 0 7 1 N o r m a l3 S O L C F O T L 0 , 1 2 8 N o r m a l4 P R O F O I S 0 , 0 8 7 N o n n a l5 P R O D S T A 0 , 2 6 2 N o r m a l

S um be r: o la ha n d ata s ek un de r

Ha s il P e n gu jia n H ip o te s is1 . A n a lls is d a n h a s il p e n g u j ia n r a s io k e u a n g a n ( le v e ra g e , l i k u id it a s , s o lv a b il i t a s , p ro f i t a b i l i t a sd a n p ro d u k t iv i t a s ) y a n g m a m p u m e m b e d a k a n a n ta ra p e r u s a h a a n yang te rmasuk inves tmen tgrade d a n n on in ve stm e n t gra de

. H a s U ,d a ri u j i n o r m a l t a s d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n One S im ple K olm ogrov S mirnov Tes t d i j a d i k a ns e b a g a l p e d o m a n d a ia m m e n il l l t u k a n p e n g u jia n h ip o t e s i s pe r t ama H ip o t e s i s p e r t a m a ( H 1 ) d iu ji d e n g a na l a t In de pe nd en t S am p le iT es t ~ a r ~ n a~ a t a m a m i l i k i d is t r ib u s i n o rm a l. H a s i l u ji a d a la h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t:

R l n g k a s l p h a s l ! U jlln de penden t S am ple t T es tRas i o P r oxy A sym p . S ig K e te ran ga n K es im p ula n (H 1)-

l e ve r age L T L f f A 0,022 8e r beda D i te r imaUqu id i tas C N C L 0,014 Be r beda D i te r imaSolvabi l i tas C F O / T L 0,004 8e r beda D i te r imaProf i tab i l i tas OilS 0,011 8e r beda D i te r imaProduk t i v i tas S / T A 0,000 8e r beda D i te r ima

P e n g a m b i la n k e p u tu s a n d ila k u k a n d e n g a n m e l ;h a t n ila ; A sym p . S ig (2 -ta ile d). J ik a n i la i A sym p . S ig(2-tai led) < 0 ,0 5 b e r a rt i t e rd a p a t p e r b e d a a n . H a s i l u ji In de pen den t S am p le t T es t n ie n u n ju k k a n b a h w ak e lim a r a s lo k e u a n g a n te rs e b u t b e rb e d a a n t a r a p e r u s a h a a n y a n g o b l ig a s in y a m a s u k in ve stm e n t gra ded a n n on in ve stm e nt gra de . H a l i t u d ib u k li k a n d e n g a n n il a i A sym p . S ig (2 -ta ile d) < 0 ,0 5 , y a i t u u n tu k r a s iole v e ra g e d e n g a n p ro k s i L on g T e rm L ia bilitie s/T ota l A ss et m e n u n ju k k a n n ila i A sym p . S ig (2 -ta ile d) =

K EM A M P U A N R A S I O K E U A N G A ND A L AM M E M P R E D IK S I P E R IN G K A T O B L IG A S I { P T K A S N I C C R tD rr R A nN G }

R A HA R JA . M A YL IA P lA M O NO S AR I


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0 ,0 2 2 ; r a s io l i k u id i t a s (Cu r ren t As se t/Cu r ren t L i ab ilit ie s ) d e n g a n n ila i 0 ,0 1 4 ; r a s io s o lv a b il i t a s (Ca s h F lowfrom Op e ra tin g! T ota l L ia b ilitie s) d e n g a n n ila i 0 ,0 1 1 ; d a n y a n g t e ra k h i r y a i t u r a s lo p r o d u k t iv i t a s ( S a le s /T o t a l A s s e t ) d e n g a n n i la i 0 , 0 0 0 . D e n g a n m e l i h a t h a s H p e n g u j ia n s e c a r a k e s e lu r u h a n r n s k a h ip o t e s isp e r t a m a ("1) d i t e r i m a .

R a s io le v e r a g e m e r u p a k a n r a s io k e u a n g a n y a n g d ig u n a k a n u n tu k m e n g u k u r s e ja u h m a n a s t a t up e r u s a h a a n m e n g g u n a k a n u t a n g d a la m m e m b ia y a i in v e s t a s i n y a . P a d a p e n e l i t ia n in i l everage d e n g a np r o k s i L on g T erm L ia bilit ie s/T ota l A sse t m e n u n ju k k a n a d a n y a p e r b e d a a n a n ta r a p e r u s a h a a n y a n go b l ig a s in y a m a s u k in ve stm e nt gra de d a n n on -in ve stm e nt gra de d a la m m e m a n fa a t k a n u t a n g u n t u km e m b ia y a in v e s t a s in y a . S e m a k in b e s a r r a s io le v e ra g e p e r u s a h a a n , s e m a k in b a ik p e r in g k a t y a n g d ib e r ik a nt e r h a d a p p e r u s a h a a n ( B u r t o n & H a r d w ic k , 1 9 9 8 d a la m ( P u r n om o , 2 0 0 5 ) ) . H a l in i m e n g in d ik a s ik a n b a h w ap e r u s a h a a n d e n g a n t in g k a t l everage y a n g t in g g i c e n d e r u n g m e m H ik i k e m a m p u a n y a n g r e n d a h d a la mm e m e n u h l k e w a j ib a n n y a . H a s i l p e n e l i t ia n in i k o n s is t e n d e n g a n p e n e l i t ia n P in c h e s a n d M in g o ( 1 9 7 3 ) ,C h a n a n d J a g a d e e s h ( 1 9 9 9 ) d a n S a r i ( 2 0 0 4 ) .

L ik u id it a s p e r u s a h a a n , m e n u n ju k k a n k e m a m p u a n p e r u sa h a a n u n tu k m e m b a y a r k e w a jlb a n f in a n s ia lja n g k a p e n d e k t e p a t p a d a w a k t u n y a . S e m a k in t in g g i r a s i l i k u id i t a s in i b e r a r t i s e m a k in b e s a r k e m am p u a np e r u s a h a a n u n tu k m e m e n u h i k e w a j ib a n f in a n s ia l ja n g ka p e n d e k . D a la m h a l i n i s e m a k in b e s a r l i k u id i t a sp e r u sa h a a n m a k a s e m a k in b a ik p u la p e r in g k a t p e r u s a h a a n te rs e b u t. D a la m p e n e l i t ia n in i r a s io I ik u id it a s(Cu rr e nt A s se t/Cu rr e nt L ia b ilitie s ) m e n u n ju k k a n a d a n y a p e r b e d a a n a n ta ra p e r u s a h a a n y a n g o b l ig a s in y am a s u k d a la m in ve stm e n t gra de d a n n on in ve stm e nt gra de d a la m m e m e n u h i k o w a j ib a n f in a n s ia l ja n g kap e n d e k t e p a t p a d a w a k t u n y a . H a s i l p e n e l i t ia n in i k o n s is t e n d e n g a n p e n e l i t ia n C h a n a n d J a g a d e e s h ( 1 9 9 9 ) .

S o lv a b i l i t a s s u a t u p e r u s a h a a n m e n u n ju k k a n k e m a m p u a n p e r u s a h a a n u n tu k m e m e n u h l s e g a lak e w a jib a n f i n a n s ia ln y a p a d a s a a t p e r u sa h a a n t e rs e b u t d il i k u id a s i . D e n g a n d em i k ia n s o lv a b i l i t a s a d a la hk e m a m p u a n s t a t u p e r u s a h a a n u n t u k m e m b a y a r s e m u a k e w a j ib a n a t a u u t a n g - u t a n g n y a b a ik ja n g k ap e n d e k m a u p u n ja n g k a p a n ja n g . D a la m h a lln i s e m a k in t in g g i s o lv a b il i t a s r n a k a s e m a k in b a ik p e r in g k a to b l ig a s in y a . D a la m p e n e l i t ia n in i r a s io s o lv a b i l i t a s (C ash F low from O pe ra tin g/ T ota l L iab ilitie s )m e n u n ju k k a n a d a n y a p e r b e d a a n a n ta ra p e r u sa h a a n y a n g o b l ig a s in y a r n a s u k in ve stm e n t gra de d a n non-in v es tm e n t gra d e . H a l in i k o n s is t e n d e n g a n S & P ( 1 9 9 4 ) d a la m S u l is t y a s t u t i ( 2 0 0 2 ) d a n S a r i ( 2 0 0 4 ) .

P r o fi t a b i l i t a s a d a la h k e m a m p u a n p e r u s a h a a n d a la rn m e m p e r o le h la b a d a la m h u b u n g a n n ya d e n g a np e n ju a la n , t o ta l a k t i v a m a u p u n m o d a l s e n d ir i . P a d a p e n e l i t ia n in i r a s io p ro fi t a b i l i t a s (Ope ra tin g In c ome /Sa les ) m e n u n ju k k a n a d a n y a p e r b e d a a n a n ta r a p e r u s a h a a n y a n g o b l ig a s in y a m a s u k k a t e g o r i i nves tmen tgrade d a n n on in ve stm e nt gra de d a l a m m e m p e r o le h la b a u s a h a . S e m a k in t in g g i p ro f i t a b il i t a s p e ru s a h a a nm a ka s e m a k in r e n d a h r is ik o k e tid a k m a m p u a n m e m b a ya r d a n s e m a k in b a ik p u la p e r in g k a t o b l ig a s in y a .H a s i l p e n e l l t ia n in i k o n s is t e n d e n g a n p e n e l i t ia n H o rr ig a n ( 1 9 6 6 ) , S & P ( 1 9 9 4 ) d a la m S u lis t y a s t u ti ( 2 0 0 2 )t e ta p i b e r b e d a h a s i l d e n g a n p e n e l i t ia n N u r h a s a n a h ( 2 0 0 3 ) .

P r o d u k t iv i t a s in i m e n g u k u r s e b e ra p a e t e k t f p e r u s a h a a n m e n g g u n a k a n s u m b e r d a y a y a n g d im i l i k i .P e r u s a h a a n y a n g t in g ka t p r o d u k t iv i t a s n y a c e n d e r u n g t i n g g i m a k a c e n d e r u n g m a m p u m e n g h a s i lk a n la b ay a n g le b ih t in g g i p u la . R a s io p ro d u k t iv i t a s (Sa les /To ta l Asse t ) d a la m p e n e l i t i a n in i m e n u n ju k k a n a d a n y ap e r b e d a a n a n ta r a p e r u s a h a a n y a n g o b l ig a s in y a m a s u k k a t e g o r i in ve stm e n t gra de d a n non- inves tmen tg rade . H a s i l in i k o n s is t e n d e n g a n p e n e l i t ia n N u r h a s a n a h ( 2 0 0 3 ) t e t a p i b e r b e d a h a s i l d e n g a n H o r r ig a n( 1 9 6 6 ) . D a r i p e m b a h a s a n d ia ta s d a p a t d is im p u lk a n b a h w a r a s io k e u a n g a n y a it l l le v e ra g e ( lT L /T A ) ; l i k u id it a s( C N C L ) ; s o lv a b i l i t a s ( C F O fT L ) ; p ro fi t a b i l i t a s (O l / S ) d a n p ro d u k t iv i t a s ( S fT A ) m e n u n ju k k a n b a h w a k e lim ar a s i o t e r s e b u t d a p a t d ig u n a ka n u n tu k m e m b e d a k a n a n ta ra p e r u sa h a a n y a n g o b l ig a s in y a m a s u k k a t e g o r iin v es tm e n t g ra d e d a n n on in ve stm e n t gra de .

JURNAL MAKSIVol . 8 N o.2 A g us lu s 2 0 08 : 2 1 2 2 32


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2 . A n a l i s i s d a n h a s il p e n g u ji a n r a s lo k e u a n g a n ( le v e ra g e , l i k u id it a s , s o lv a b il i t a s , p ro fi t a b i l i t a sd a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s ) y a n g m e m p u n y a i k e m a m p u a n m e m b e n t u k m o d e l u n t u k m e m p r e d ik s ip e r in g k a t o b li g a s i

H ip 6 t e s is k e d u a d iu ji d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n a n a lis is M D A (M u lt ip le D i s c r im i n a n t A n a ly s is ) d e n g a nd u a k a t e g o r i . U ji d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n r n e m a s u k k a n v a r ia b le d e p e n d e n y a n g b e r u p a k a t e g o r i . K a t e g o r i 0u n tu k in v e s tm e n t g ra d e d a n k a t e g o r i 1 u n t u k in v e s tm e n t g ra d e . P e n g u j i a n d il a k u k a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a nm e to d e a n a lis i s d is k r im i n a n s e c a r a b e r t a h a p ( S t e p w i s e M e th o d ) . T u ju a n a n a lis i s d is c r im i n a n u n t u km e n e n tu k a n v a r ia b le in d e p e n d e n m a n a y a n g s ig n i f i k a n d a p a t d ig u n a k a n m e m b e n t u k s ta tu m o d e l p re d ik s id a n m e m p u n y a i k e m a m p u a n d a la m m e m p r e d ik s i k e d u a k e lo m p o k p e r in g k a t o b l i g a s i ( n o n i n v e s t m e n tg r a d e d a n i n v e s tm e n t g ra d e ) .

V a r ia b e l i n d e p e n d e n y a n g d im a s u k k a n d a la r n a n a l is i s d i s k r im in a n in i s e b a n y a k 5 v a r ia b e lin d e p e n d e n . D a r i h a s i l p e n g u j i a n d ip e r o le h 4 v a r ia b e l i n d e p e n d e n y a n g m a m p u m e m b e d a k a n k a t e g o r ip e rin g k a t o b l ig a s i . K e e m p a t v a ria b e l t e rs e b u t a d a la h L E V L T L T A , S O L C F O T L , P R O F O r S d a n P R O D S T A .H a s i l p e n g u jia n s e c a r a r in g k a s d is a j i k a n d a la m t a b e l b e r i k u t:

V a r la b e l- v a r ia b e l y a n g m a s u k d a la m lu n g s i d is k r im i n a nS t e p V a r la b e l W l l k 's la m d a1 L E V L T L T A 0,6782 S O L C F O T L 0 , 5 2 23 P R O D S T A 0,4384 P R O F O I S 0,269

S um b er: O la ha n d ata s eku nd er

P a d a t a b e l d ia t a s d a p a t d i l i h a t w ilk 's la m d a p a d a s te p 1 m e n u n ju k k a n a n g k a 0 . 6 7 8 y a n g b e r a r i6 7 , 8 % v a r ia n s t i d a k d a p a t d ij e la s k a n o le h p e r b e d a a n d u a k a t e g o r i ( in ve s tm e n t g ra d e d a n n o n in v e s tm e n tg r a d e ) . A n g k a W i lk 's L a m d a p a d a s t e p 2 s e b e s a r 0 , 5 2 2 ; s te p 3 s e b e s a r 0 , 4 3 8 d a n y a n g t e r a k h i r 0 , 2 6 9 .P e n u r u n a n a n g k a w il k 's la m d a t e n t u b a ik d a la r n m o d e l d is k r im in a n k a r e n a v a r ia n y a n g t id a k d a p a td ij e la s k a n ju g a s e m a k in k e e i l ( d a r i 6 7 ,8 % - 2 6 , 9 % ) . A n g ka s ig n i f ik a n ju g a m e n u n ju k k a n , b a h w a k e e m p a tv a ria b e l t e rs e b u t s e m u a n ya s ig n i f i k a n s e e a ra s t a tis t i c y a n g b e r a r t i k e e m p a t v a ria b e l t e rs e b u t m e m a n gb e rb e d a u n tu k k a t e g o r i i n v e s tm e n t g ra d e d a n n o n in v e s tm e n t g ra d e . H a s il f u n g s i d is k r im ln a n y a n g t e rb e n t u kd a r t a n a li s i s M D A d is a ji k a n p a d a t a b e l b e r ik u t :

K E M A MP UA N R AS IO K EU AN G A ND A L AM M E M P R E D IK S I P E R IN G KA T O B llG A SI (Fr K AS N IC C R E DIT R AT IN G )

I WIA RJ A. M A YU A P R A~ JN O S AR I


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H a s i l F u n g s i D is k r im in a nF u n c t i o n1

L E V L T L T A -6.302S O L C F O T L -7.342P R O F O I S 19.582P R O D S T A 2.867( c o n s t a n t ) -1 .495

B erd a s a r k a n ta b e l te r s e b u t d i a ta s m a k a d ip e ro le h fu n g s i d is k r im in a n s e b a g a i b e r ik u t :

Z Score= -1 ,495 - 6,302 LE VLTLTA -7,342 SO LC FO TL + 19 ,582 PROFOIS + 2 ,86 7 PRODSTA

R in g k a s a n h a s il u j i d is k r im in a nK a t e g o r i N o n in ve s tm e n t-g ra de (0 )

I n ve s tm e n t g ra de (1 )N 5 2 o b s e r v a s i

" .( 4 0 in v e s tm e n t g r a d e d a n 1 2 n o n in v e s tm e n t g r a d e )

V a ria b e l y g s ig n i f ik a n L E V L T lT A ; S O L F C F O T L : P R O D S T A ; P R O F 0 1SC h i - S q u a r e 6 4 , 6 3 5O v e ra ll P e rc e n ta g e 9 6 , 2%F un c t io n s a t g ro up c en tr o id s -3 ,0 1 9 (Z a ) , 0 ,9 0 6 ( Z b )P r io r P ro b a b i l i t ie s fo r G ro u p s 1 2 (N a ) ; 4 0 (N b )C u t 0 1 S c o r e Z e u = ( N a , Z b l + ( N b . Z a l

N a + N bS um b er: o la ha n d ata se ku nd erJURNAL MAKSIVo l . 8 N o , 2 A gu s/u s 2 00 8: 212232


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P e n g k la s i f i k a s ia n o b lig a s i s u a tu p e ru s a h a a n k e d a la m k a te g o r i in v e s tm e n t g r a d e d a n n o n - i n v e s t -m e n t g ra d e d ila k u k a n d e n g a n m e m b a n d in g k a n n ila i Z - s c o re d a n n ila i Z e u s e b a g a i c u t o f f s c o re . A p a b i J an i J a i Z s c o r e > le u m a k a m a s u k k a t e g o r i 1 ( in v e s tm e n t g r a d e ) . S e b a l i k n y a n ila i Z s c o r e < Z e u m a k am a s u k k a t e g o r i 0 ( n o n - in v e s t m e n t g r a d e ) . N i la i Z e u y a n g m e ru p a k a n c u t o f f s c o re d ih i t u n g t e r le b i h d a h u l ud e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n r u m u s s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

le u = ( N a . Z b ) + ( N b . Z a )N a + N b= 1 2 (0 ,9 06 ) + 4 0 (-3 ,0 1 9 )

1 2 + 40= - 10 ,872 + ( - 120 ,76 )5 2= - 2 ,113

H a s i l u j i m o d e l d is k r im in a nN o N a m a P e ru sa ha an Z e u Z s c o re P e r in g k a t A k tu a i P e rin g ka t P re d ik s i1 A s tra G r ap h ia - 2 , 1 1 3 0 , 9 1 3 I n v e s tm e n t g ra d e In v e s tm e n t g ra d e2 B a r ito P a s if ik - 2 ,1 1 3 - 4 ,4 6 1 N o n-in ve s tm e n t g ra de N o n- in ve stm e n t g ra de3 B e r l i n a - 2 , 1 1 3 - 0 , 2 5 6 I n ve s tm e n t g ra d e In v es tm e n t g ra d e4 B ra n ta M u l ia - 2 , 1 1 3 1 , 2 5 1 I n ve s tm e n t g ra d e In v es tm e n t g ra d e5 D u t a P e r tiw i - 2 , 1 1 3 1 , 4 4 5 In v es tm e n t g ra d e In v es tm e n t g ra d e6 In da h K ia ! - 2 , 1 1 3 - 3 , 4 0 4 N o n- in ve stm e n t g ra de N o n- in ve stm e n t g ra de7 I n do lo ad S u ks es - 2 , 1 1 3 1 , 1 6 5 In v es tm e n t g ra d e In ve s tm e n t g ra de8 L a uta n L u as - 2 , 1 1 3 3 , 1 3 9 In v es tm e n t g ra d e In v es tm e n t g ra d e9 M a yo ra In da h - 2 . 1 1 3 - 0 , 7 1 5 I n ve s tm e n t g ra d e In ve stm e nt g ra de1 0 T jiw i K im ia - 2 , 1 1 3 2 , 5 5 7 N o n- in ve stm e n t g ra de N o n- in ve s tm e n t g ra de1 1 R ic ky P u tr a - 2 , 1 1 3 - 1 , 5 1 8 N o n -in v es tm e n t g ra d e In ve s tm e n t g ra d e1 2 U ltr a J ay a M i lk 2 , 1 1 3 0 , 3 3 1 In v es tm e n t g ra d e In ve s tm e n t g ra de13 U n g g u l l n d a h - 2 , 1 1 3 - 0 , 0 7 8 In v es tm e n t g ra d e In ve s tm e n t g ra d e

S um be r: O la ha n d ata s ek un de r

. K E M A M P U A N R A S IO K E U A N G A ND A L A M M E M P R E D IK S I P ER IN G K AT O B L IG A S I /f'T K AS N IC C R E Dr r R A T IN G )

IW I A R J A , M A Y U A P R A M ii F to S A J/ /


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H a s i l a n a li s is f u n g s i d is k r im i n a n 2 k a te g o r i ( in v e s tm e n t g ra d e d a n n o n in v e s tm e n t g ra d e ) d e n g a nm e n g g u n a k a n s a m p e l 1 3 o b l l i g a s i m e n u n ju k k a n 1 2 o b l ig a s i y a n g m e m i l i k i p e r in g k a t s a r n a d e n g a np e n n g k a ty a n g d ik e lu a r k a n P T K a s n ic C r e d it R a t in g . N i l a i O v e ra l l P e r c e n ta g e y a n g d ip e ro le h m e n u n ju k k a nt i n g k a t v a li d it a s 9 6 , 2 % . D e n g a n d em i k ia n fu n g s i d is k r im i n a n y a n g te rb e n tu k m e m i l i k i k e te p a ta n p re d i k s iy a n g t i n g g i t e r h a d a p p e ri n g k a t o b li g a s i s u a t u p e ru s a h a a n . B e r d a s a rk a n u j i M D A m a k a h ip o te s is k e d u a( H 2 ) d lt e rm a k a r e n a r a s io k e u a n g a n t e rb u k ti m e m p u n y a i k e t e p a ta n d a la m m e m p r e d i k s i p e r in g k a t o b l ig a s is u a t u p e ru s a h a a n .D a la m m e n e n tu k a n p e m e r in g k a t a n s u a tu o b J ig a s i d ip e n g a ru h i b e b e r a p a k ri t e r i a , b e b e r a p a l i t e ra tu rm e n e m p a tk a n r a s io k e u a n g a n p a d a u ru ta n p a l in g u ta m a . T in g k a t k e t e p a ta n r a s io k e u a n g a n y a n g s ig n i f ik a ny a i t u s e b e s a r 9 6 , 2 % d a la m m e m p e rb a ik i p e n n g k a ts u a tu o b l ig a s i s e ja la n d e n g a n p e n e l i t i a n y a n g d ila k u k a no le h N u r h a s a n a h ( 2 0 0 3 ) y a i t u 9 7 % d a n P u r n o m o ( 2 0 0 5 ) y a i t u 9 6 ,6 % . O le h k a r e n a i t u p e r u s a h a a n y a n gm e n g a n d a l k a n s u m b e r p e n d a n a a n n y a m e la lu i o b l i g a s i h e n d a k n y a m e n in g k a t k a n k in e r j a n y a , k a r e n ar a s io k e u a n g a n t e rb u k ti m a m p u m e m p r e d i k s i p e r in g k a t o b l ig a s i s u a tu p e r u s a h a a n . D e n g a n r a s io k e u a n g a ny a n g b a ik m a k a a k a n d ip e ro le h p e rin g k a t o b li g a s i y a n g b a ik p u la .S IM P U L A N D A N S A R A N

S i m p u l a nP e n e l i t ia n in i m e r ig u j i a p a k a h r a s io k e u a n g a n m e m p u n y a i k e m a m p u a n u n t u k m e m p re d ik s i p e n n g k a t

o b l ig a s i d a n a p a k a h te r d a p a t r a s io k e u a n g a n ( le v e r a g e , l i k u id i t a s , s o lv a b i l i t a s , p r o f i t a b i l i t a s , d a np r o d u k t iv i t a s ) y a n g b e rb e d a a n ta ra p e r u s a h a a n y a n g m e m il i k i p e ri n g k a t o b li g a s i i n v e s tm e n t g r a d e d a nn o n - in v e s tm e n t g r a d e . D e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n 5 2 o b s e r v a s i y a n g d ih a s i lk a n d a n 1 3 s a m p e l p e n e r b i to b l i g a s i p e r u s a h a a n m a n u fa k t u r p e r i o d e 2 0 0 5 - 2 0 0 6 , m a k a p e n e l i t i a n in i b e r h a s l l m e m b e r ik a n ta m b a h a nb u k ti e m p ir i s s e b a g a i b e r ik u t

1 . S e b a n y a k 5 r a s io k e u a n g a n ( l e v e ra g e , l i k u id lt a s , s o l v a b ll i t a s , p ro fl t a b i l i t a s , d a n p ro d u k t iv it a s )y a n g d iu ji , d id a p a t k a n h a s H b a h a r e lim a r a s io k e u a n g a n t e rs e b u t b e r b e d a a n ta ra p e r u s a h a a ny a n g p e r in g k a t o b l ig a s in y a m a s u k in v e s tm e n t g ra d e d a n n o n - in v e s tm e n t g ra d e . D e n g a nm e li h a t h a s il t e rs e b u t m a k a h lp 6 t e s i s p e r t a m a ( H 1 ) d it e rim a .

2 . K em a m p u a n r a s io k e u a n g a n u n tu k m e m p r e d i k s i p e r i n g k a t o b l i g a s i l jn v e s tm e n t g ra d e d a n. n o n -in ve s tm e n t g ra d e ) d it u n ju k k a n o le h h a s i l p e n g u ji a n d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n M D A ( M u / ~

t ip le D i s c rim in a n t A n a l is is ) . D a r i u ji d is k r im i n a n t e rs e b u t t e rd a p a t 4 v a r i a b e l r a s io k e u a n g a ny a n g d a p a t m e m b e n t u k m o d e l p r e d ik s i . K e e m p a t v a r i a b e l r a s io k e u a n g a n te rs e b u t b e r a s a ld a r i r a s io le v e ra g e d e n g a n p ro k s i L o ng T e rm U a b il i t ie s / T o ta l A s s e t; r a s io l i k u id it a s 'd e n q a np r o k s i C u r re n t A s s e t / C u r re n t L ia b il i t ie s ; r a s io s o lv a b i l i t a s d e n g a n p ro k s i C a s h F lo w f r o mO p e r a t in g / T o t a l L i a b i li t ie s ; r a s lo p ro fi t a b i l i t a s d e n g a n p ro k s i O p e ra t in g I n c o m e / S a le s ; d a nr a s io p ro d u k t iv it a s d e n g a n p ro k s i S a l e s /T a ta l A s e t . T in g k a t k e te p a ta n y a n g d ip e r o le h d a la mm e m p r e d i k s i p e r i n g k a to b l ig a s i d e n g a n d u a k a t e g o r i m e n e a p a i 9 6 , 2 % d e n g a n n ila i Z e u s e b e s a r2 , 1 1 3 . D e n g a n d e m i k ia n m o d e l p re d ik s i t e rs e b u t d ia ta s d a p a t d ig u n a k a n u n t u k m e m p re d i k s ip e r i n g k a t o b l i g a s i k h u s u s n y a b a g i p e r u s a h a a n m a n u fa k t u r d i I n d o n e s ia .

JURNAL MAKSIVol . 8 N o .2 A g us lu s 2 0 08 ; 212 - 232


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S a r a nB e r d a s a r k a n h a s i l p e n e li t i a n d a n p e m b a h a s a n n y a d a p a t m a k a d i t e m u k a n b e b e ra p a s a r a n s e b a g a i

b e r i k u t1 .

2 .

B a g i e m i t e n h e n d a k n y a m e m p e r b a i k i a t a u m e n in g k a t k a n k in e r ja k e u a n g a n n y a , m i s a ln y ad e n g a n c a r a m e n e k a n b ia y a - b ia y a p e r u s a h a a n s e h in g g a a k a n m e n in g k a t k a n p r o f i t a t a um e m a k s im a lk a n s u m b e r d a y a y a n g d im i l ik i s e h in g g a d a p a t m e n in g k a tk a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s .D e n g a n m e n in g k a t n y a k in e r ja p e r u s a h a a n m a k a a k a n m e n g a k ib a t k a n p e r i n g k a t o b l i g a s iy a n g b a ik s e h in g g a a k a n b e r d a m p a k p a d a d a y a ju a l p e r u s a h a a n y a n g t in g g i p u la .B a g i p a r a in v e s to r y a n g in g in m e n g in v e s ta s ik a n d a n a n y a d a la m b e n tu k o b l i g a s i h e n d a k n y am e m p e rh a ti k a n p e rin g k a t o b lig a s i p e r u s a h a a n y a n g b e rs a n g k u ta n , k a r e n a p e ri n g k a tt e rs e b u tm e n g g a m b a rk a n k in e r ja p e r u s a h a a n y a n g b e r s a n g k u ta n .B a g i p a r a a k a d e m is i a ta u p e n e l i t i , d a p a t m e n e li t i k e m b a li u n tu k p e r i o d e y a n g le b ih p a n ja n g ,s e k to r u s a h a y a n g b e r b e d a s e rt a m e n a m b a h v a ri a b e l p e n e l i t i a n .

3.

K EM A M PU AN R AS IO K E UA NG A NO A L A M M EM P R E O IK S I P ER IN G K A T O B L IG A S I (P r K AS NJ C C R E OrT R AT IN G )

R A H A R J A , M A Y U A P R A M f1 ND S A I l I


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D A F T A R P U S T A K A

A ltm a n , E d w a r d I . 1 9 6 8 " F in a n c ia l r a t i o , D is c r im in a n t a n a ly s i s a n d t h e p r e d lc u o n o f c o r p o r a t e b a n k -r u p t c y " . T h e J o u rn a l o f F in a n c e , 5 8 9 -6 0 9 .

A r y a n in d it a , G a b r ie l P . 2 0 0 5 . " K em a m p u a n R a s io K e u a n g a n D a la m M e m p r e d i k s i P e r in g k a t O b l ig a s L "T h e s is S - 2 . P a s c a s a rj a n a . U G M .B u r t o n , B ; M i k e , A ; a n d H a r d w ic k , P .1 9 9 8 . " T h e d e t e r m in a n t s o f c r e d i t r a t in g s in U n i t e d K in g d o m in s u r -

a n c e in d u s tr y " . W o rk in g p a p e r . w w w . q o o g l e . c o m .C h a n , K ; J a g a d e e s h , N ; a n d W a r g a , A . 1 9 9 9 . " M a r k e t b a s e d e v a lu a t i o n fo r m o d e l t o p r e d i c t b o n d r a t in g s

a n d c o r p o r a te b o n d t r a d in g s tr a te g y ". W o rk in g P a p e r. w w w . q o o q l e . c o m .

F o s te r , G e o r g e .1 9 8 6 . F in a n c ia l S t a te m e n t A n a ly s is . P r e n t ic e -h a ll I n te r n a t i o n a l I n c .G h o za li , Im a m . 2 0 0 1 . A p lik a s i A n a / is is M u lt i v a ria te d e n g a n P r o g r a m S P S S . B a d a n P e n e rb it U n iv e r s it a s

D i p o n e g o r o .H o r r i g a n , J. 1 9 6 6 . " T h e d e te rm i n a t io n o f lo n g t e rm c re d i t s ta n d in g w it h f in a n c ia l r a ti o s , e m p ir i c a l r e s e a r c h

in a c c o u n t i n g : S e le c te d S t u d ie s " . S u p p le m e n t to J o u rn a l o f A c c o u n tin g R e s e a r c h .K a p la n . R .S , a n d G . U rw it z . 1 9 7 9 . " S ta t is t ic a l m o d e ls o f b o n d r a t in g : A M e t h o d o lo g ic a l I n q u i r y " . T h e

J o u rn a l o f B u s in e s s , A p r i l .K e s u m a w a t i , L . 2 0 0 3 . " P e n g a r u h p e r in g k a t h u ta n g d a n b e r b a g a i f a k t o r y a n g tu r u t m e m p e n g a r u h i h a r g a

o b l ig a s i s e b a g a i v a r ia b e l k o n tr o l t e rh a d a p y ie ld P re m iu m obl iqasl " , T h e s is S - 2 . P a s c a rs a r ja n a ,U G M .

K e t z , E d w a r d a n d M a h e r , J o h n .1 9 9 0 . " T h e r e la t i o n s h ip o f a s s e t f lo w m e a s u r e s to b o n d r a t i n g s " . A B E RV o 1 .2 1 . N O . 2 . S u m m e r .

N u r h a s a n a h . 2 0 0 3 " K e m a m p u a n r a s io k e u a n g a n d a la m m e m p r e d ik s i p e r in q k a t o b l i g a s i p e r u s a h a a nm a n u fa k tu r: A n a l is is D i s k r im i n a n d a n R e g r e s i L o g is tik ". T h e s is S - 2 . P a s c a sa rja n a , U G M .

P in c h e s , G . F . a n d K . A . M i n g o .1 9 7 3 . " A M u lt i v a ria te A n a l y s is o f I n d u s t r ia l B o n d R a tin g s " . T h e J o u r n a l o fF i n a n c e . M a r c h .

_ _ _ _ _ . 1 9 7 5 " T h e r o le o f s u b o r d in a t i o n a n d in d u s t r ia l b o n d r a t in g s . T h e J o u rn a l o f F in a n c e .M a r c h .

JURNAL MAKSIVa l . 8 No .2 A gus lus 2 0 08 : 2 12 - 2 3 2

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P T K a s n ic C r e d it R a t in g . W W W .k a s n ic .c om .P u r n o m o , H e r w id i . 2 0 0 5 . " K e m a m p u a n R a s io K e u a n g a n S e b a g a i A la t U n t u k M e m p r e d i k s i P e r in g k a t

O b lig a s i P e r u s a h a a n M a n u fa k tu r" . Y o g y a k a rt a . S k r i p s i , U G M .R a h a r d jo , S a p to .2 0 0 3 . P a n d u a n I n v e s ta s i O b lig a s i . P T G r a m e d ia P u s t a k a U ta m a , J a k a rt a .S a r i , M . P .2 0 0 4 . " K e te p a ta n P e r in g k a tO b l ig a s i A n ta ra M o d e l P r e d ik s i d a n A g e n P e m e r in g k a t T h e s is S - 2 .P a s c a s a r j a n a . U G M .8 a r t o n o , R . A . 1 9 9 6 . M a n a je m e n K e u an g a n T e o r i d a n A p lik a s i. E d is i 3 . B P F E .S u l is t y a s tu t l , 2 0 0 2 . S a h a m & O b lig a s i , R i n g ka s an T e o ri d a n S o a l J a w a b . U n iv e r s it a s A b n a J a y a Y o g y a k a r t a . .

K EM AM PU AN R AS IO K EU AN G A ND AL A M M EM P R ED IK S I P ER IN G K AT O B L IG A S I (P T K AS N IC C R E D IT R AT IN G )'?I.

R A J lA R J A . M A Y U A P R A M O N D S A R I
http://www.kasnic.com./http://www.kasnic.com./

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