Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

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Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden

Transcript of Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

Page 1: Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

Middle East and North AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

The Military Implications

Sir Tim Garden

Page 2: Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

IssuesIssues

• Causes of Conflict in MENA• Threats from Region• Our Capabilities• Lessons from the Recent Past• What next?• What force posture is needed?

Page 3: Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

The Causes of ConflictThe Causes of Conflict

• State to State• Borders• Resources• Ethnic• Arms including WMD• Power ambitions• Alliances

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The Causes of ConflictThe Causes of Conflict

• Non State Actors• Internal terrorism• External terrorism• Religious groups• Crime• Corruption

Page 5: Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

Risks in the MENA RegionRisks in the MENA Region

• Post Conflict Iraq• Al Qaeda • Israel-Palestine - Syria - Jordan• Iran Nuclear programme• Saudi Arabia & Egypt Stability• North Africa

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What are the Threats to Us?What are the Threats to Us?

• International Terrorism• Weapons of Mass Destruction• Threats to Regional Allies• International Crime• Breaches of International System

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Who are we?Who are we?

• United Nations SC• USA + coalitions• NATO• EU• Quartet (EU UN US Russia)• Inner EU core (UK France Germany)

Page 8: Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

• Gulf War 1 and 2• Afghanistan• Balkan experience• Post Conflict operations

Page 9: Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

What Capabilities?What Capabilities?

• Expeditionary offensive warfare• Sustainability post conflict• Intelligence• Conflict prevention

Page 10: Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

Where next?Where next?

• NATO in Afghanistan• Iraq• Israel-Palestine peacekeeping?• Iran and WMD• US action on Syria?• Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya?

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Military RequirementsMilitary Requirements

• Rapid Deployment• Sustainability• Intelligence• Experience• Alliance operations

Page 12: Middle East and North Africa The Military Implications Sir Tim Garden.

Strategic QuestionsStrategic Questions

• High tech weapons?• Conflict Prevention?• Oil dependence?• Islamic democracy?• Future alliances?• Endless war on terrorism?

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