Where will we be in 2050?

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Michael WeberDeputy Executive Director for Operations

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionSeptember 15, 2010

Overview

• Welcome• Vision• Where will we be in 2050• Insights• Bottom Line

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Vision

• Essential in leadership– Communicate a better future– Inspire commitment and motivation– Leverage uncertainty

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– Assess the challenge and plan the journey• Risky forecasts

– “Energy too cheap to meter” Lewis Strauss– “200 NPPs by 2000”

• “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” Lewis Carroll

Where Will We Be in 2050?

• Number of nuclear power plants?• Tons of spent fuel?• Numbers of casks?• Reprocessed fuel?• Operating geologic repositories?

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Nuclear Power Plants

• World– Today – 438 operating plants– 2050 – 900? 590 – 1415*

• U.S.– Today – 104 operating plants– 2050 – 125? 130 – 260*

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Source: Extrapolated from EIA, DOE/EIA-0383 (2010)*IAEA Reference Data Series No. 1 (1 GW/plant)

Total and Nuclear Capacity - 2009

15002000250030003500

Total Hi

0500

10001500 Total Hi

Total LoNuclear HiNuclear Low

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Total and Nuclear Capacity - 2050

15002000250030003500

Total Hi

7

0500

10001500 Total Hi

Total LoNuclear HiNuclear Low

Tons of Spent Fuel

• World– Today

• 325,000 tHM produced110 000 tHM d• 110,000 tHM reprocessed

– 2050• > 800,000 tHM produced• > 300,000 tHM reprocessed

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Source: Extrapolated from ARIUS (2010)

Growing Spent Fuel Inventory

Cumulative Used Nuclear Fuel Scenarios

200,000

250,000

s

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-

50,000

100,000

150,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Met

ric T

ons

Reference: Crozat, March 2010

Numbers of Spent Fuel Casks

• U.S.– Today – 1200 casks– 2050 - > 2200 casks

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Geologic Repositories

• Today – U.S. – Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (only defense transuranic waste)

• 2050 – U.S. (WIPP) and several national repositories

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Looking Back from 2050

• Nuclear power plants built 90 years ago• Fuel transported that is 80-90 years old• Cooler and less radioactive, but more

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brittle?• Optimum materials for baskets, seals,

casks?• Sufficient safeguards controls and

measures when placed in the cask?

Insights from this Forecast

• Safety and security remain paramount• Environmental sustainability and

energy security are important and

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complementary goals• An integrated approach today can

enhance flexibility, efficiency, and coherency

Implications for CFD

• Reliance on CFD analysis will increase– Operating reactors– New reactors– ReprocessingReprocessing– Transportation– Storage

• Simulations need to be benchmarked and validated

• Your work today builds the foundation

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Bottom Line

• Given the importance of nuclear safety and security, it is important that we “get it right”

• Thanks

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