Michael LloydPG Researcher

School of Urban StudiesGlasgow University

Research overview Centered on gentrification, place

attachment and affordability Asks households claiming housing stress,

in an area subject to gentrification-led pressures, how they are coping:What problems are they facing?What solutions have they sought?Is migration one of those solutions? If not, why not?What are the consequences of constraint?

Constrained displacement Certain low-income household groups

are often asserted to be displaced from gentrifying areas

Are there constraints on displacement and how do they operate?

Identified in this research are:Place attachment & kinship bondsUncertain financial benefitA sense of entitlement

Consequences The consequences for the study area of

constrained displacement were considered

If participant households are not leaving they will not solve their housing stress

This may exacerbate social problems such as:HomelessnessOvercrowdingLoss of social cohesion

The study area – East Lothian

The study area East Lothian popular“Garden of Scotland” Employment structure has changed - de-

industrialised over 50 years Gentrification may have been a trailblazer

for higher housing costs Influx of higher earners to previously low-

income area – agriculture and industry Indigenous population - strong attachment

Why a local authority? Other options were considered

Macro – regional ‘SESplan’ areaMicro - town or village or neighbourhood

Local authority was chosen becausePolitical accountabilityAdministrative unitAvailability of statisticsIn this case, coherent sense of local identity - andHigh prices in all areas

Some disadvantagesMarkets don’t respect administrative boundariesSpillover into other LA areas, nearby

Methodology

Qualitative - trying to answer questions about human behaviour

Previous quantitative work in this area, esp. Housing Needs and Demands Analysis

Self-selecting participants - their own histories and perceptions of need and stress

32 accepted with range of ‘stories’ of need and ‘housing histories’ - some rejected

Longitudinal study

The Research Questions

Looking for evidence that gentrification and high housing costs had caused housing problems for participants

Asking whether migration would be a viable option for them

If not, why not? Asking what the consequences would

be for them - and other households - if displacement was ‘constrained’ ...

The Participant questions Semi structured interviews lasting c.1 hour Designed to elicit:

Their current housing situationTheir housing historyHow they tried to solve their housing problemsReasons for success or failureTheir views about causationTheir views about the UK/East Lothian market

The Research Findings Most of the participant households found the

cost of getting adequate housing to be too high (25/32)

Many attributed this cost to gentrification and high earning ‘incomers’ (21/32)

Most would not consider moving away from the area (27/32)

Most wanted the local Council and/or the Scottish Gvt. to solve the problems (30/32)

Specific Findings - Affordability The responses were analysed to see how

they matched theory and previous research into affordability...Many respondents had poor affordability using

the ratio concept (Residual Income not available)Some could have tolerated their affordability

issues but faced other problems, as wellFor many, affordability was not the only cause of

housing stressBut resolving their problems required money they

did not have

Specific Findings - Displacement

The majority of these households wanted to stay in East Lothian despite their pressing housing problems: Very strong place attachment was evidentPrices in surrounding areas are not significantly

lower and employment prospects uncertain Participants felt there was ‘nowhere to go’There was also a sense of entitlement to stayBUT these households could only be selected

because they had not moved

Specific Findings - Place Attachment PA a significant constraining factor in EL Very strong, and working on multiple levels -

neighbourhood, town and county Ties are not just about emotional or

psychological wellbeing There are strong practical reasons for some

income groups to stay (Lyons) And disadvantages to moving

Specific findings - Dependency? Does the behaviour of the participants

suggest EL has a dependency culture? Many households look to authorities to

solve their problemsThey hope and expect that the local council

will help them to find suitable housingThey are quite fatalistic about their

prospects without helpThey are nervous about taking the initiative

The Impacts of Constrained Displacement? Participants believed social cohesion

was being undermined by the rising cost of housing throughout EL:Social change brought in by newcomers

was leaving them behind.‘Scamming’ to get a house was rifeMultiple-generation long-term residents

could be squeezed out Their children would never be housed‘Surreyfication’

The Impact (2)

High homelessness presentations in EL - is CD a contributing factor?

How many households are living in unsuitable housing ‘under the radar’ of detection?

How many never seek help because they “know” it is hopeless?

Does a rising tide float all boats?

A reality check

Households do not always act rationally according to objective assumptionsThey may lack information or misinterpret itThey may substitute short-term comfort for

long-term gainThey are not driven simply by cost pressures,

except in the direst of circumstancesTheir priorities will be determined by the

cultural assumptions and norms of their area and their peers

Conclusion There seems to be considerable resistance

to displacement in East Lothian Partly because households think there is

nowhere suitable to be displaced to And because of place attachment As well, because of a sense of entitlement Unless the LA/Government increases the

affordable housing supply, housing problems are likely to persist in this area.

Work in progress – thoughts to date