Michael Kr amer (RWTH Aachen) -...
Transcript of Michael Kr amer (RWTH Aachen) -...
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Bethe Forum on LHC, Dark Matter and Unification, Bonn, November 2011
SUSY fits at the LHC
Michael Krämer (RWTH Aachen)
Work done in collaboration with P. Bechtle, J. Conley, K. Desch, H. Dreiner,L. Glaser, J. Lindert, B. O’Leary, C. Robens, B. Sarrazin, J.Tattersall and P.Wienemann.
See arXiv:1003.2648, arXiv:1102.4693, arXiv:1105.5398, and arXiv:1110.1287.
Supported by:
SFB/TR 9 “Computational Particle Physics”, Helmholtz Alliance “Physics at the Terascale”,
BMBF-Theorie-Verbund, Marie Curie Research Training Network “Heptools”, Graduiertenkolleg
“Elementarteilchenphysik an der TeV-Skala”
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From the motivation for a recent SUSY meeting at ICL:
The non-observation of SUSY-like signatures in the first fb−1
collected by ATLAS and CMS is in tension with the expectedranges of the parameters of constrained SUSY models like theCMSSM/mSUGRA or non-universal Higgs models. If noevidence of a missing energy signature is found by the end ofthe run year 2011, these constrained models will essentially beruled out, while a very large volume of the parameter space ofsimple SUSY will be excluded.
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SUSY searches: past, present, future
I past: EWK & flavour observables, collider limits, ΩDM
I present: ⊕ LHC SUSY and Higgs exclusions
I future: ⊕ LHC discoveries. . .
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SUSY searches: past, present, future
I past: EWK & flavour observables, collider limits, ΩDM
I present: ⊕ LHC SUSY and Higgs exclusions
I future: ⊕ LHC discoveries. . .
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Indirect SUSY searches
There is a wealth of precision measurements
from B/K physics, (g − 2), astrophysics (DM) and collider limitswhich show sensitivity to supersymmetry, in particular
I (g − 2)µ
I DM relic abundance
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Indirect SUSY searches: (g − 2)µ
3.6/2.4σ discrepancy between experimental data and SM prediction
Davier, Hoecker, Malaescu, Zhang, arXiv:1010.4180v1
-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0
aµ – a
µ exp ×
10
–11
BN
L-E
821 2
004
HMNT 07 (e+e
–-based)
JN 09 (e+e
–)
Davier et al. 09/1 (τ-based)
Davier et al. 09/1 (e+e
–)
Davier et al. 09/2 (e+e
– w/ BABAR)
HLMNT 10 (e+e
– w/ BABAR)
DHMZ 10 (τ newest)
DHMZ 10 (e+e
– newest)
BNL-E821 (world average)
–285 ±
51
–299 ±
65
–157 ±
52
–312 ±
51
–255 ±
49
–259 ±
48
–195 ±
54
–287 ±
49
0 ±
63
→ SUSY loops: aSUSYµ ∼ sgn(µ) tanβM−2SUSY
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Indirect SUSY searches: (g − 2)µ
3.6/2.4σ discrepancy between experimental data and SM prediction
Davier, Hoecker, Malaescu, Zhang, arXiv:1010.4180v1
-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0
aµ – a
µ exp ×
10
–11
BN
L-E
821 2
004
HMNT 07 (e+e
–-based)
JN 09 (e+e
–)
Davier et al. 09/1 (τ-based)
Davier et al. 09/1 (e+e
–)
Davier et al. 09/2 (e+e
– w/ BABAR)
HLMNT 10 (e+e
– w/ BABAR)
DHMZ 10 (τ newest)
DHMZ 10 (e+e
– newest)
BNL-E821 (world average)
–285 ±
51
–299 ±
65
–157 ±
52
–312 ±
51
–255 ±
49
–259 ±
48
–195 ±
54
–287 ±
49
0 ±
63
→ SUSY loops: aSUSYµ ∼ sgn(µ) tanβM−2SUSY
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Dark matter relic abundance ΩDM
ΩDM is too large for large parts of the CMSSM parameter space, specialannihilation mechanisms are needed
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SUSY framework: the constrained MSSM
Indirect SUSY searches are often interpreted in the constrained MSSM,
where the breaking is universal at the GUT scale
I universal scalar masses: M2Q̃
, M2Ũ
, M2D̃
, M2L̃, M2
Ẽ→ M20 at MGUT
I universal gaugino masses: M1, M2, M3 → M1/2 at MGUTI universal trilinear couplings Aeij ,A
dij ,A
uij → A · heij ,A · hdij ,A · huij at MGUT
In addition we have tanβ, and we fix sign(µ) = +
In the CMSSM the sparticle masses are strongly correlated, e.g.
Mg̃ ' 3Mχ̃± ' 3Mχ̃02 ' 6Mχ̃01and
m2ũL ' M20 + 6.3 M21/2 + DũLm2ẽL ' M20 + 0.5 M21/2 + DẽL
where Df̃L = M2Z cos(2β)(T3f − Qf sin(2θW ))
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SUSY framework: the constrained MSSM
Indirect SUSY searches are often interpreted in the constrained MSSM,
where the breaking is universal at the GUT scale
I universal scalar masses: M2Q̃
, M2Ũ
, M2D̃
, M2L̃, M2
Ẽ→ M20 at MGUT
I universal gaugino masses: M1, M2, M3 → M1/2 at MGUTI universal trilinear couplings Aeij ,A
dij ,A
uij → A · heij ,A · hdij ,A · huij at MGUT
In addition we have tanβ, and we fix sign(µ) = +
In the CMSSM the sparticle masses are strongly correlated, e.g.
Mg̃ ' 3Mχ̃± ' 3Mχ̃02 ' 6Mχ̃01and
m2ũL ' M20 + 6.3 M21/2 + DũLm2ẽL ' M20 + 0.5 M21/2 + DẽL
where Df̃L = M2Z cos(2β)(T3f − Qf sin(2θW ))
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The Fittino CMSSM fits
I For the calculation of non-LHC observables we have used
– the spectrum generator SPheno;
– the Mastercode compilation for (g − 2)µ, flavour and electroweakprecision observables;
– MicrOMEGAs for the DM relic densities;
– HiggsBounds for the Higgs limits.
I We require that χ̃01 is the LSP.
I We then calculate and minimize
χ2 = (~Oobs − ~Oth(~P))T cov−1M (~Oobs − ~Oth(~P)) + limits
for each point ~P in the CMSSM parameter space using the Fittinopackage.
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The Fittino CMSSM fits
Our best fit point without LHC exclusions. . .
0h 0A 0H +H10χ
20χ
30χ
40χ
1+χ
2+χ
Rl~
Ll~
1τ∼
2τ∼
Rq~
Lq~
1b~
2b~
1t~
2t~ g~
Par
ticl
e M
ass
[GeV
]
0
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Mass Spectrum of SUSY Particles no LHC
Environmentσ1
Environmentσ2
Best Fit Value
Mass Spectrum of SUSY Particles no LHC
. . . points to a light sparticle spectrum with m̃ < 1 TeV
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SUSY searches: past, present, future
I past: EWK & flavour observables, collider limits, ΩDM
I present: ⊕ LHC SUSY and Higgs exclusions
I future: ⊕ LHC discoveries. . .
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SUSY particle production at the LHC
SUSY particles would be produced at the LHC via QCD processes
[Beenakker, Brensing, MK, Laenen, Kulesza, Niessen ’09]
q̃g̃
q̃q̃
q̃¯̃q
g̃g̃
mq̃ = mg̃
NLO+NLL
√s = 7TeV;
σ (pp → g̃g̃/q̃¯̃q/q̃q̃/q̃g̃ + X) [pb]
m [GeV]12001000800600400200
1000
100
10
1
0.1
0.01
0.001
→ σ ≈ 100 fb for m ≈ 1000 GeV at√
S = 7 TeV
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SUSY particle production at the LHC
SUSY particles would be produced at the LHC via QCD processes
[Beenakker, Brensing, MK, Laenen, Kulesza, Niessen ’09]
q̃g̃
q̃q̃
q̃¯̃q
g̃g̃
mq̃ = mg̃
NLO+NLL
√s = 7TeV;
σ (pp → g̃g̃/q̃¯̃q/q̃q̃/q̃g̃ + X) [pb]
m [GeV]12001000800600400200
1000
100
10
1
0.1
0.01
0.001
→ σ ≈ 100 fb for m ≈ 1000 GeV at√
S = 7 TeV
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SUSY particle production at the LHC
SUSY particles would be produced at the LHC via QCD processes
[Beenakker, Brensing, MK, Laenen, Kulesza, Niessen ’09]
q̃g̃
q̃q̃
q̃¯̃q
g̃g̃
mq̃ = mg̃
NLO+NLL
√s = 14TeV;
σ (pp → g̃g̃/q̃¯̃q/q̃q̃/q̃g̃ + X) [pb]
m [GeV]30002500200015001000500
103
101
10
1
10−1
10−2
10−3
10−4
10−5
→ σ ≈ 2.5 pb for m ≈ 1000 GeV at√
S = 14 TeV
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SUSY searches at hadron colliders
Powerful MSSM signature at the LHC: cascade decays with ET,miss
Generic signature for many new physics models which address
– the hierarchy problem– the origin of dark matter
→ predict spectrum of new particles at the TeV-scalewith weakly interacting & stable particle (← discrete parity)
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SUSY searches at hadron colliders
Powerful MSSM signature at the LHC: cascade decays with ET,miss
Generic signature for many new physics models which address
– the hierarchy problem– the origin of dark matter
→ predict spectrum of new particles at the TeV-scalewith weakly interacting & stable particle (← discrete parity)
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Squark and gluino searches at the LHC
ATLAS limits (1 fb−1)
→ mq̃ ≈ mg̃ ∼> 980 GeV15 / 63
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Squark and gluino searches at the LHC
CMS limits (1 fb−1)
)2 (GeV/c0m0 200 400 600 800 1000
)2 (G
eV/c
1/2
m
200
300
400
500
600
700
(250)GeVq~
(250)GeVg~
(500)GeVq~
(500)GeVg~
(750)GeVq~
(750)GeVg~
(1000)GeVq~
(1000)GeVg~
(1250)GeVq~
(1250)GeVg~
Tα
Jets+MHT
SS Dilepton
OS Dilepton
MT21 Lepton
-1 = 7 TeV, Ldt = 1.1 fbs ∫CMS Preliminary
> 0µ = 0, 0
= 10, Aβtan
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Direct SUSY searches at the LHC: expected limits
The LHC is probing the preferred region of SUSY parameter spaceBechtle, Desch, Dreiner, MK, O’Leary, Robens, Sarrazin, Wienemann, arXiv:1102.4693 [hep-ph]
[GeV]0M0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
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[GeV]0M0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
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2D 95% CL no LHC1D 68% CL no LHC
-195% CL exclusion 35pb-195% CL exclusion 1fb-195% CL exclusion 2fb-195% CL exclusion 7fb
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Direct SUSY searches at the LHC: expected limits
But what if we do not see any SUSY signal at the LHC?Bechtle, Desch, Dreiner, MK, O’Leary, Robens, Sarrazin, Wienemann, arXiv:1102.4693 [hep-ph]
[GeV]0M0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
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[GeV]0M0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
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2D 95% CL no LHC1D 68% CL no LHC
-195% CL exclusion 35pb-195% CL exclusion 1fb-195% CL exclusion 2fb-195% CL exclusion 7fb
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Direct SUSY searches at the LHC: expected limits
We have considered the SUSY search in the 4 jets + ET ,miss signature
with Meff =∑
i pT ,i + ET ,miss:
ATL-PHYS-PUB-2010-10
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Direct SUSY searches at the LHC: expected limits
I We have calculated the CMSSM signal for a grid in (m0,m1/2) using
– the spectrum generator SPheno;
– the MC generator Herwig++;
– NLO+NLL K-factors;
– the fast detector simulation Delphes.
I We consider ten bins in the range 0 < Meff < 4 TeV and calculate theχ2 from the number of signal and background events in each bin ofthe Meff distribution.
I The SM background is taken from the ATLAS simulation. We assign30% systematic uncertainty to the SUSY signal cross-section, and 20%systematic uncertainty to the background.
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Direct SUSY searches at the LHC: expected limits
We find good agreement with the ATLAS simulation:
FITTINO 4 jets 0 lepton LO
FITTINO 4 jets 0 lepton NLO
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Direct SUSY searches at the LHC: expected limits
The 4 jets +ET ,miss signature is rather independent of tanβ and A0:
[GeV]effM0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
-110
1
10
210
310
SM=0
0=10, Aβtan
=10000
=10, Aβtan =1000
0=20, Aβtan
=10000
=30, Aβtan =1000
0=40, Aβtan
=10000
=50, Aβtan
[GeV]effM0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
-110
1
10
210
310
= 5001/2
= 500, M0M
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: results
Low-energy observables, DM, no LHC exclusions
[GeV]0M100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2D 95% CL no LHC
1D 68% CL no LHC
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: results
Low-energy observables, DM and LHC exclusions with 1 fb−1
[GeV]0M0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
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2000
-12D 95% CL 1fb-11D 68% CL 1fb
-195% CL exclusion 1fb
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: results
Low-energy observables, DM and LHC exclusions with 2 fb−1
[GeV]0M0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
400
600
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1000
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1400
1600
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2200-12D 95% CL 2fb-11D 68% CL 2fb
-195% CL exclusion 2fb
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: results
Low-energy observables, DM and LHC exclusions with 7 fb−1
[GeV]0M0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
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2000
2200-12D 95% CL 7fb-11D 68% CL 7fb
-195% CL exclusion 7fb
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: is there a tension?
→ LEOs prefer low mass scales (for non-coloured sector)→ LHC prefers high mass scales (for coloured sector)
Is there a tension building up?
Let us look at the best fit points:
M0 M1/2 A0 tanβ χ2/ndf
no LHC 77+114−31 333+89−87 426
+70−735 13
+10−8 19/20
35 pb−1 126+189−54 400+109−40 724
+722−780 17
+14−9 20/21
1 fb−1 235+389−103 601+148−63 627
+1249−717 31
+19−18 24/21
2 fb−1 254+456−128 647+157−74 771
+1254−879 30
+20−19 24/21
7 fb−1 403+436−281 744+142−150 781
+1474−918 43
+11−33 25/21
→ even the CMSSM would ”survive” the 2011/2012 LHC run
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: is there a tension?
→ LEOs prefer low mass scales (for non-coloured sector)→ LHC prefers high mass scales (for coloured sector)
Is there a tension building up?
Let us look at the best fit points:
M0 M1/2 A0 tanβ χ2/ndf
no LHC 77+114−31 333+89−87 426
+70−735 13
+10−8 19/20
35 pb−1 126+189−54 400+109−40 724
+722−780 17
+14−9 20/21
1 fb−1 235+389−103 601+148−63 627
+1249−717 31
+19−18 24/21
2 fb−1 254+456−128 647+157−74 771
+1254−879 30
+20−19 24/21
7 fb−1 403+436−281 744+142−150 781
+1474−918 43
+11−33 25/21
→ even the CMSSM would ”survive” the 2011/2012 LHC run
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: is there a tension?
P-v
alu
e @
bes
t fi
t p
oin
t
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
[GeV]0M0 200 400 600 800 1000
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
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1000
-11D 68% CL 7fb-11D 68% CL 2fb-11D 68% CL 1fb
-11D 68% CL 35pb1D 68% CL no LHC
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Why do tan β and M1/2 move to larger values?
I mainly due to aSUSYµ ∼ sgn(µ) tanβM−2SUSY and ΩDM
I ΩDM is too large for large parts of the CMSSM parameter space,special annihilation mechanisms are needed
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Why do tan β and M1/2 move to larger values?
I mainly due to aSUSYµ ∼ sgn(µ) tanβM−2SUSY and ΩDM
I ΩDM is too large for large parts of the CMSSM parameter space,special annihilation mechanisms are needed
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Why do tan β and M1/2 move to larger values?
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Why do tan β and M1/2 move to larger values?
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Why do tan β and M1/2 move to larger values?
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Why do tan β and M1/2 move to larger values?
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Why do tan β and M1/2 move to larger values?
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: individual pulls
no LHC
σ|Meas.-Fit|/ 0 1 2 3
2hCDMΩ 0.0135 ±0.1099 0.1125
SMµ - aµa-10 10× 9.0) ±(30.2 -10 10×24.0
)K∈C( 0.14 ±0.92 1.03
) ν l→(KBR 0.014 ±1.008 1.000
)γ s→(bBR 0.122 ±1.117 1.022
)ντ →(bBR 0.40 ±1.15 0.96
ll)s X→s(BBR 0.32 ±0.99 0.99
Bsm∆ 0.32 ±1.11 1.03
Bdm∆/Bsm∆ 0.16 ±1.09 1.00
[MeV] ZΓ 2.5 ±2495.2 2495.3
[nb]0hadσ 0.037 ±41.540 41.484
0lR 0.025 ±20.767 20.743
0bR 0.00066 ±0.21629 0.21601
0cR 0.0030 ±0.1721 0.1722
lA 0.0021 ±0.1513 0.1482
τA 0.0032 ±0.1465 0.1482
bA 0.020 ±0.923 0.935
cA 0.027 ±0.670 0.668
FB0,l
A 0.0010 ±0.0171 0.0165
FB0,b
A 0.0016 ±0.0992 0.1039
FB0,c
A 0.0035 ±0.0707 0.0743 leffθ
2sin 0.0012 ±0.2324 0.2314
[GeV] Wm 0.027 ±80.398 80.385
[GeV] > hm 114.3 113.4
no LHC
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: individual pulls
-135 pb
σ|Meas.-Fit|/ 0 1 2 3
2hCDMΩ 0.0135 ±0.1099 0.1107
SMµ - aµa-10 10× 9.0) ±(30.2 -10 10×21.4
)K∈C( 0.14 ±0.92 1.02
) ν l→(KBR 0.014 ±1.008 1.000
)γ s→(bBR 0.122 ±1.117 1.009
)ντ →(bBR 0.40 ±1.15 0.945
ll)s X→s(BBR 0.32 ±0.99 0.99
Bsm∆ 0.32 ±1.11 1.02
Bdm∆/Bsm∆ 0.16 ±1.09 1.00
[MeV] ZΓ 2.5 ±2495.2 2495.0
[nb]0hadσ 0.037 ±41.540 41.483
0lR 0.025 ±20.767 20.743
0bR 0.00066 ±0.21629 0.21600
0cR 0.0030 ±0.1721 0.1722
lA 0.0021 ±0.1513 0.1479
τA 0.0032 ±0.1465 0.1479
bA 0.020 ±0.923 0.935
cA 0.027 ±0.670 0.668
FB0,l
A 0.0010 ±0.0171 0.0164
FB0,b
A 0.0016 ±0.0992 0.1037
FB0,c
A 0.0035 ±0.0707 0.0741 leffθ
2sin 0.0012 ±0.2324 0.2314
[GeV] Wm 0.027 ±80.398 80.377
LHC
-135 pb
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: individual pulls
-11 fb
σ|Meas.-Fit|/ 0 1 2 3
2hCDMΩ 0.0135 ±0.1099 0.1063
SMµ - aµa-10 10× 9.0) ±(30.2 -10 10×26.3
)K∈C( 0.14 ±0.92 1.01
) ν l→(KBR 0.014 ±1.008 0.999
)γ s→(bBR 0.122 ±1.117 0.952
)ντ →(bBR 0.40 ±1.15 0.91
ll)s X→s(BBR 0.32 ±0.99 0.99
Bsm∆ 0.32 ±1.11 1.01
Bdm∆/Bsm∆ 0.16 ±1.09 1.00
[MeV] ZΓ 2.5 ±2495.2 2494.9
[nb]0hadσ 0.037 ±41.540 41.482
0lR 0.025 ±20.767 20.741
0bR 0.00066 ±0.21629 0.21596
0cR 0.0030 ±0.1721 0.1722
lA 0.0021 ±0.1513 0.1476
τA 0.0032 ±0.1465 0.1476
bA 0.020 ±0.923 0.935
cA 0.027 ±0.670 0.668
FB0,l
A 0.0010 ±0.0171 0.0163
FB0,b
A 0.0016 ±0.0992 0.1035
FB0,c
A 0.0035 ±0.0707 0.0739 leffθ
2sin 0.0012 ±0.2324 0.2315
[GeV] Wm 0.027 ±80.398 80.368
LHC
-11 fb
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: individual pulls
-12 fb
σ|Meas.-Fit|/ 0 1 2 3
2hCDMΩ 0.0135 ±0.1099 0.1134
SMµ - aµa-10 10× 9.0) ±(30.2 -10 10×13.7
)K∈C( 0.14 ±0.92 1.01
) ν l→(KBR 0.014 ±1.008 0.999
)γ s→(bBR 0.122 ±1.117 0.971
)ντ →(bBR 0.40 ±1.15 0.913
ll)s X→s(BBR 0.32 ±0.99 1.00
Bsm∆ 0.32 ±1.11 1.01
Bdm∆/Bsm∆ 0.16 ±1.09 1.00
[MeV] ZΓ 2.5 ±2495.2 2494.4
[nb]0hadσ 0.037 ±41.540 41.482
0lR 0.025 ±20.767 20.741
0bR 0.00066 ±0.21629 0.21596
0cR 0.0030 ±0.1721 0.1722
lA 0.0021 ±0.1513 0.1473
τA 0.0032 ±0.1465 0.1473
bA 0.020 ±0.923 0.935
cA 0.027 ±0.670 0.668
FB0,l
A 0.0010 ±0.0171 0.0163
FB0,b
A 0.0016 ±0.0992 0.1033
FB0,c
A 0.0035 ±0.0707 0.0738 leffθ
2sin 0.0012 ±0.2324 0.2315
[GeV] Wm 0.027 ±80.398 80.366
LHC
-12 fb
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: individual pulls
-17 fb
σ|Meas.-Fit|/ 0 1 2 3
2hCDMΩ 0.0135 ±0.1099 0.1095
SMµ - aµa-10 10× 9.0) ±(30.2 -10 10×13.3
)K∈C( 0.14 ±0.92 1.01
) ν l→(KBR 0.014 ±1.008 0.999
)γ s→(bBR 0.122 ±1.117 0.948
)ντ →(bBR 0.40 ±1.15 0.854
ll)s X→s(BBR 0.32 ±0.99 1.00
Bsm∆ 0.32 ±1.11 1.00
Bdm∆/Bsm∆ 0.16 ±1.09 1.00
[MeV] ZΓ 2.5 ±2495.2 2494.5
[nb]0hadσ 0.037 ±41.540 41.482
0lR 0.025 ±20.767 20.741
0bR 0.00066 ±0.21629 0.21595
0cR 0.0030 ±0.1721 0.1722
lA 0.0021 ±0.1513 0.1473
τA 0.0032 ±0.1465 0.1473
bA 0.020 ±0.923 0.935
cA 0.027 ±0.670 0.668
FB0,l
A 0.0010 ±0.0171 0.0163
FB0,b
A 0.0016 ±0.0992 0.1033
FB0,c
A 0.0035 ±0.0707 0.0738 leffθ
2sin 0.0012 ±0.2324 0.2315
[GeV] Wm 0.027 ±80.398 80.365
LHC
-17 fb
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: mass spectrum
Low-energy observables, DM and LHC exclusions with 1 fb−1
0h 0A 0H +H10χ
20χ
30χ
40χ
1+χ
2+χ
Rl~
Ll~
1τ∼
2τ∼
Rq~
Lq~
1b~
2b~
1t~
2t~ g~
Par
ticl
e M
ass
[GeV
]
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
-1 Mass Spectrum of SUSY Particles 1fb Environmentσ1
Environmentσ2
Best Fit Value
-1 Mass Spectrum of SUSY Particles 1fb
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: mass spectrum
Low-energy observables, DM and LHC exclusions with 2 fb−1
0h 0A 0H +H10χ
20χ
30χ
40χ
1+χ
2+χ
Rl~
Ll~
1τ∼
2τ∼
Rq~
Lq~
1b~
2b~
1t~
2t~ g~
Par
ticl
e M
ass
[GeV
]
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
-1 Mass Spectrum of SUSY Particles 2fb Environmentσ1
Environmentσ2
Best Fit Value
-1 Mass Spectrum of SUSY Particles 2fb
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Global SUSY fits with projected LHC exclusions: mass spectrum
Low-energy observables, DM and LHC exclusions with 7 fb−1
0h 0A 0H +H10χ
20χ
30χ
40χ
1+χ
2+χ
Rl~
Ll~
1τ∼
2τ∼
Rq~
Lq~
1b~
2b~
1t~
2t~ g~
Par
ticl
e M
ass
[GeV
]
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
-1 Mass Spectrum of SUSY Particles 7fb Environmentσ1
Environmentσ2
Best Fit Value
-1 Mass Spectrum of SUSY Particles 7fb
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What is the role of the Higgs sector?
A few comments:
I the Higgs sector is strongly constrained in the CMSSM;
I in our CMSSM fits, the light Higgs is very SM-like, and the heavyHiggses are beyond current (future?) reach;
43 / 63
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What is the role of the Higgs sector?
44 / 63
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What is the role of the Higgs sector?
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What is the role of the Higgs sector?
A few more comments:
I the Higgs sector is strongly constrained in the CMSSM;
I in our CMSSM fits, the light Higgs is very SM-like, and the heavyHiggses are beyond current (future?) reach;
I the exclusion of a Higgs with mh ∼< 140 GeV would probably be theonly way to exclude the MSSM;
I SM Higgs searches may, however, not be sufficient to exclude a lightMSSM Higgs, e.g. because of invisible decays h→ χ̃χ̃;
I the Higgs sector will play a crucial role for the assessment of SUSYin the near future!
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Future SUSY searches beyond MET
I flavour constraints, e.g. Bs → µµ (LHCb)
I direct dark matter searches (see e.g. Aprile et al: arXiv:1104.2549)
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Comparison of global CMSSM fits with and without LHC exclusions
There has been a lot of activity recently (see e.g. arXiv:1109.3859v1)
]2 [GeV/c0m0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
]2 [
GeV
/c1/
2m
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000 SPS1ABench B’’Allanach pre LHC
tαAllanach CMS -1Allanach 35pb
-1Bertone 35pb-1Farina 1fb
Fittino pre LHC-1Fittino 35pb
-1Fittino 1fb-1Fittino 2fb-1Fittino 7fb
MC pre LHC
tαMC CMS -1MC 35pb
-1MC 1fbSuperBayes pre LHC
→ there is less agreement after the inclusion of LHC limits
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Comparison of global CMSSM fits with and without LHC exclusions
There has been a lot of activity recently (see e.g. arXiv:1109.3859v1)
]2 [GeV/c1/2m0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
)βta
n(
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 SPS1ABench B’’Allanach pre LHC
tαAllanach CMS -1Allanach 35pb
-1Bertone 35pb-1Farina 1fb
Fittino pre LHC-1Fittino 35pb
-1Fittino 1fb-1Fittino 2fb-1Fittino 7fb
MC pre LHC
tαMC CMS -1MC 35pb
-1MC 1fbSuperBayes pre LHC
→ there is less agreement after the inclusion of LHC limits
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Global SUSY fits: the χ2 of the LHC exclusions
50 / 63
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Global SUSY fits: the χ2 of the LHC exclusions
50 / 63
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Global SUSY fits: the χ2 of the LHC exclusions
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Global SUSY fits: the χ2 of the LHC exclusions
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Global SUSY fits: the χ2 of the LHC exclusions
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Global SUSY fits: the χ2 of the LHC exclusions
Let us look at the χ2 of the LHC exclusions along the red line:
[GeV]0M0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
[G
eV]
1/2
M
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200-12D 95% CL 2fb
2D 95% CL no LHC
route
-195% CL exclusion 2fb
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Global SUSY fits: the χ2 of the LHC exclusions
We find a non-trivial shape of the LHC χ2:
[GeV]0M210 310
2 χ
0
2
4
6
8
10
[GeV]0M210 310
2 χ
0
2
4
6
8
10
no LHC-1LHC 2fb-1total 2fb
20.95z
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Global SUSY fits: the χ2 of the LHC exclusions
When we vary m0 and m1/2, both the SUSY rate as well as the shape ofthe Meff distribution change; SUSY signals with larger rate may becomemore background-like and thus harder to observe.
[GeV]effM0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
-110
1
10
210
310
SM=0
0=10, Aβtan
=10000
=10, Aβtan =1000
0=20, Aβtan
=10000
=30, Aβtan =1000
0=40, Aβtan
=10000
=50, Aβtan
[GeV]effM0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
-110
1
10
210
310
= 5001/2
= 500, M0M
56 / 63
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Global SUSY fits: the χ2 of the LHC exclusions
When we vary m0 and m1/2, both the SUSY rate as well as the shape ofthe Meff distribution change; SUSY signals with larger rate may becomemore background-like and thus harder to observe.
[GeV]effM0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
-110
1
10
210
310
SM=0
0=10, Aβtan
=00
=30, Aβtan =0
0=50, Aβtan
=10000
=10, Aβtan =1000
0=30, Aβtan
[GeV]effM0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
-110
1
10
210
310
= 4001/2
= 200, M0M
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Comparison of global CMSSM fits with LHC exclusions
I There is too wide a spread in global CMSSM fits with LHC exclusions.
The different groups use different
I LHC signatures;
I levels of sophistication in the implementation of LHC limits.
We should compare the LHC χ2 maps between the different groupsand identify problematic regions.
I How can we optimize the LHC sensitivity?
We observe
I a reduced sensitivity when going from our analysis based on the Meffdistribution to the more recent analysis of ATLAS-CONF-2011-086 (prel.);
I limitations of the sensitivity due to the systematic uncertainties of signaland background.
We should compare the impact of different analyses (Meff , αT etc.) onglobal SUSY fits and include a combination of various LHC constraints.
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Comparison of global CMSSM fits with LHC exclusions
I There is too wide a spread in global CMSSM fits with LHC exclusions.
The different groups use different
I LHC signatures;
I levels of sophistication in the implementation of LHC limits.
We should compare the LHC χ2 maps between the different groupsand identify problematic regions.
I How can we optimize the LHC sensitivity?
We observe
I a reduced sensitivity when going from our analysis based on the Meffdistribution to the more recent analysis of ATLAS-CONF-2011-086 (prel.);
I limitations of the sensitivity due to the systematic uncertainties of signaland background.
We should compare the impact of different analyses (Meff , αT etc.) onglobal SUSY fits and include a combination of various LHC constraints.
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SUSY searches: past, present, future
I past: EWK & flavour observables, collider limits, ΩDM
I present: ⊕ LHC SUSY and Higgs exclusions
I future: ⊕ LHC discoveries. . .
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SUSY parameter determination at the LHC
Mass measurements from cascade decays, e.g.
→ kinematic endpoints sensitive to masses:
(m2ll)max = (m2χ̃02
−m2l̃R )(m2l̃R−m2χ̃01)/m
2l̃R
(m2qll)max = (m2q̃L −m
2χ̃02
)(m2χ̃02−m2χ̃01)/m
2χ̃02
(m2ql,min)max = (m2q̃L −m
2χ̃02
)(m2χ̃02−m2l̃R )/m
2χ̃02
(m2ql,max)max = (m2q̃L −m
2χ̃02
)(m2l̃R −m2χ̃01
)/m2l̃R
60 / 63
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SUSY parameter determination with cross sections
How well could we do at 7 TeV and 1 fb−1? [Dreiner, MK, Lindert, O’Leary]
[cf. Baer et al., Altunkaynak et al., . . . ]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
(GeV)1/2M150 200 250 300 350
(G
eV)
0M
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
SPS1a with 4 kinematic edges only
→ no stable fit→ add cross sections:
sensitive to masses and spins
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
(GeV)1/2M150 200 250 300 350
(G
eV)
0M
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
kinematic edges ⊕ cross sections→ m0 = 99± 9 GeVm1/2 = 250± 7 GeVtanβ = 11± 6
→ cross sections are crucial to determine BSM parameters
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SUSY parameter determination with cross sections
How well could we do at 7 TeV and 1 fb−1? [Dreiner, MK, Lindert, O’Leary]
[cf. Baer et al., Altunkaynak et al., . . . ]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
(GeV)1/2M150 200 250 300 350
(G
eV)
0M
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
SPS1a with 4 kinematic edges only
→ no stable fit→ add cross sections:
sensitive to masses and spins
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
(GeV)1/2M150 200 250 300 350
(G
eV)
0M
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
kinematic edges ⊕ cross sections→ m0 = 99± 9 GeVm1/2 = 250± 7 GeVtanβ = 11± 6
→ cross sections are crucial to determine BSM parameters
61 / 63
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SUSY parameter determination with cross sections
How well could we do at 7 TeV and 1 fb−1? [Dreiner, MK, Lindert, O’Leary]
[cf. Baer et al., Altunkaynak et al., . . . ]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
(GeV)1/2M150 200 250 300 350
(G
eV)
0M
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
SPS1a with 4 kinematic edges only
→ no stable fit→ add cross sections:
sensitive to masses and spins
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
(GeV)1/2M150 200 250 300 350
(G
eV)
0M
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
kinematic edges ⊕ cross sections→ m0 = 99± 9 GeVm1/2 = 250± 7 GeVtanβ = 11± 6
→ cross sections are crucial to determine BSM parameters
61 / 63
-
SUSY parameter determination with cross sections
How well could we do at 7 TeV and 1 fb−1? [Dreiner, MK, Lindert, O’Leary]
[cf. Baer et al., Altunkaynak et al., . . . ]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
(GeV)1/2M150 200 250 300 350
(G
eV)
0M
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
SPS1a with 4 kinematic edges only
→ no stable fit→ add cross sections:
sensitive to masses and spins
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
(GeV)1/2M150 200 250 300 350
(G
eV)
0M
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
kinematic edges ⊕ cross sections→ m0 = 99± 9 GeVm1/2 = 250± 7 GeVtanβ = 11± 6
→ cross sections are crucial to determine BSM parameters61 / 63
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SUSY parameter determination with cross sections
Beyond mSUGRA: explore mirage mediation models[Choi, Nilles, Falkowski, Ratz, Loewen and many others]
→ characteristic pattern of soft SUSY-breaking termsM1 : M2 : M3 ' (1 + 0.66α) : (2 + 0.2α) : (6− 1.8α)
→ relative size of modulus and anomaly mediation controlled by αHow well can we determine α from future LHC data?
Assume LHC @ 14 TeV with 1 fb−1
kinematic edges only
[Conley, Dreiner, Glaser, MK, Tattersall]
kinematic edges ⊕ cross sections→ α = 5± 0.3
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SUSY parameter determination with cross sections
Beyond mSUGRA: explore mirage mediation models[Choi, Nilles, Falkowski, Ratz, Loewen and many others]
→ characteristic pattern of soft SUSY-breaking termsM1 : M2 : M3 ' (1 + 0.66α) : (2 + 0.2α) : (6− 1.8α)
→ relative size of modulus and anomaly mediation controlled by αHow well can we determine α from future LHC data?
Assume LHC @ 14 TeV with 1 fb−1
kinematic edges only
[Conley, Dreiner, Glaser, MK, Tattersall]
kinematic edges ⊕ cross sections→ α = 5± 0.3
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backup
63 / 63