Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs ›...

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Michael G. Bosilovich and A li d Md Sil Arlindo M. da Silva NASA GSFC GMAO

Transcript of Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs ›...

Page 1: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

Michael G. Bosilovich and A li d  M  d  SilArlindo M. da SilvaNASA GSFC GMAO

Page 2: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

Reanalyses assimilate a broad suite of  Reanalyses assimilate a broad suite of observations, yielding a single consistent productp

The presence, or lack, of observations often determines the quality of reanalysis data

Observation reports from the analysis are usually in observation‐space format, or diverse bi     ii d t  f tbinary or ascii data format

Research studies do not usually indicate the presence of observations and their impact on presence of observations and their impact on reanalysis

Page 3: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

NASA’s most recent reanalysis –Modern‐Era l f h d lRetrospective analysis for Research and Applications 

(MERRA) – Rienecker et al. (2011, J. Clim) 1979 – present; more than 300 diagnostic variables1979  present; more than 300 diagnostic variables

Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) Derived from GSI “diag” (feedback) files, and includes the 

b ti  b k d f t   (O F)  d  l i  observation, background forecast error (OmF) and analysis error (OmA)

Conventional obs (sonde, stn pressure, etc) and also Radiance data

Gridded to MERRA’s native pressure coordinate –½°×⅔°, 42 pressure levels for every 6 hour analysis time4 p y y

How deep can we dig into the analysis and observations with this kind of post processed observations?

Page 4: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

Warm biases in commercial aircraft –Cardinali et al. Warm biases in commercial aircraft  Cardinali et al. (2003) and Ballish and Kumar (2008) Use forecasts or increments to evaluate obs

f Some limitations – few seasons, small regions Recommend aircraft T bias corrections

GIO ComparisonGIO Comparison Develop collocations for a 31 year period over the continental USI iti ll  l ki   t  b  C i  l l     ll ti Initially looking at 200mb – Cruise level, more collocations

Collocations are based on the 6 hourly analysis and MERRA analysis grid

Can we use these collocations to derive the characteristics for bias corrections in reanalyses?

Page 5: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

Some grid points are screened due to low number of collocations

Page 6: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar
Page 7: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

Apr 1991 – MDCRS Start

Page 8: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar
Page 9: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar
Page 10: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

A‐F ~ (O‐F) + β( ) β ‐ Effective Gain: A measure of how much the analysis draws to an observing systemβ C t t l Bi     β – Contextual Bias: a measure of bias of an observing system observing system relative to other contributing  91‐09 (200mb) β

Density

(340K Collocations)

contributing observing systems

91 09 (200mb) βAirCraftT 0.50 ‐0.04

RAOB T 0.41 0.21

Page 11: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

As Aircraft observations  0 20.30.4

Contextual Bias (K)

As Aircraft observations become prevalent their β is reduced and Gain  ‐0 3

‐0.2‐0.10.00.10.2

βincreases

RAOBs have somewhat ‐0.6‐0.5‐0.4‐0.3

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continuous gain, but become biased

RAOB Acraft

0 450.500.550.60

Effective Gain

Aircraft observations control the analysis at 

b   th  US  0 250.300.350.400.45

200mb over the US after 1991

0.200.25

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RAOB Acraft

Page 12: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

Effective Gain

0 5

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RAOB

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ACraft

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Near‐200mb peaking channels from MSU, AMSU and HIRS

Page 13: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

Radiosonde obs more consistent in time than aircraft Some vertical variations not yet accounted for

Page 14: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

Process at higher resolution?Process at higher resolution? For example, better locate data near tropopause

Integrate radiance and conventional  Integrate radiance and conventional observation comparisons

Assuming Radiosonde output is accurate  Assuming Radiosonde output is accurate, aircraft bias correction needs to be developed  but will need to consider developed, but will need to consider seasonality and altitude. 

Many uses in identifying observational Many uses in identifying observational influence on the reanalysis

Page 15: Michael G. Bosilovich and Ali dArlindo M. da Silva NASA ... › pubs › docs › Bosilovich576.pdf · Warm biasesin commercial aircraft –Cardinaliet al. (2003) and Ballishand Kumar

Thanks for any [email protected]@nasa.gov