Michael Davies Keynote

MassTLC Mobile Summit The future is already hereMichael A M Davies Microsoft NERD Center, Cambridge, MA July 22, 2014


Michael Davies of Endeavour Partners discusses the five forces impacting the next wave of mobile

Transcript of Michael Davies Keynote

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MassTLC Mobile Summit The future is already here…

Michael A M Davies Microsoft NERD Center, Cambridge, MA July 22, 2014

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Mobile Summit Keynote

July 22, 2014 1

…it’s just not evenly distributed. Yet.

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Endeavour Partners works with leaders in technology to anticipate the future, navigate through change, and to innovate better and more quickly

July 22, 2014 2

•  Predict technology innovations •  Identify/assess demand

opportunities •  Forecast new markets •  Understand how business

ecosystems will emerge/evolve •  Make connections amongst these

developments •  Anticipate the dynamics and

potential scenarios

•  We have a unique approach and way of thinking together

•  We combine a core team, all of whom have specialist expertise and relevant experience

•  With a broad and diverse network of relationships and partnerships throughout the ecosystem, worldwide

What we do: Our services

Who we work for: Our clients

Why we are different

•  Top tier device vendors, service providers, network operators and infrastructure vendors who are at the forefront of the mobile/digital ecosystem in software/computing/semiconductors, CE, content and e/m-commerce

•  Businesses impacted by technology: retail/FMCG, transportation, financial services

•  Investors in these business •  Governments and policy makers

(DoJ and DG Comp)

•  Determine implications of key scenarios

•  Identify/evaluate strategic options •  Make smart, timely decisions •  Identify who to target, what to

offer, when, and which technology to pursue

•  Determine who to partner with •  Define how to create and capture


•  Discover how to delight customers in new ways

•  Develop breakthrough creative ideas

•  Leverage partnerships and catalyze business ecosystems

•  Instill agile approaches and enhance productivity

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Our perspective – forward-looking, opinionated – and iconoclastic

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(There may be some things I cannot say, some things I cannot share, or questions I cannot answer because of legal constraints or client confidentiality)

This is a forward-looking, iconoclastic, and even heretical


We are passionate about it and continue

to invest

We have an opinion and we are unafraid

to challenge conventional wisdom

We have a long track record of seeing

things others miss, recognizing shifts

earlier and spotting key turning points

and transitions

In particular we are writing a book now


We now recognize a clear pattern of

innovation principles that drive success

Innovation is important; getting it right really matters

We are at an inflection point

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We face a perfect storm of creative destruction

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Smartphone penetration is 65% in the United States and >50% in many

developed countries 20%



80% 25% CAGR

LTE coverage now extends to 90%+ of Americans. Wi-Fi is


Billions of people use the cloud

Cloud computing

Internet of things

Big data / machine learning


What happens when these five forces converge?


Pervasive connectivity

Cloud computing Widespread

wireless broadband

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It’s a Nor’easter in MA: The eye of the storm

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High tablet and

smartphone penetration in


The 4 major networks have

almost completed

their MA LTE rollouts

Many cloud, big data, and

machine learning

companies in MA

A demographic shift is ongoing

Digital Natives (many of whom are students) are smartphone-centric, PC agnostic, relaxed

about security, grew up in a digital environment and are comfortable and

familiar with all things digital (your kids)

In Boston/Cambridge:

16,000 people/square mile

In Silicon Valley:

35 universities/100 square miles

4,000 people/square mile

1.5 universities/100 square miles



Pervasive connectivity

Cloud computing

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What does this convergence mean?

Customers are empowered

Customers have instant access to information

anywhere, anytime, about anything (including sensing

and controlling)

The nature of work is changing Who is affected?






…and the customer-to-customer interaction has


How does work get done?

With a modern & consistent user

experience with a seamless transition

across devices

Utilizing automation &

machine learning

Innovation is accelerating and becoming more


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Consumers are becoming wizards…

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…with easy access to:

Anytime, anywhere, instantly.

Data Information Knowledge Wisdom

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…and our products must keep pace

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What are examples of this change?

Making travel simpler, easier and more reliable

Providing simple, easily adoptable payment methods

Automating our homes

Easily and quickly find a location to charge your electric vehicle

Amazon’s app/fire phone makes impulse buying easy… especially

when at a competitors store

Recording our health and wellness

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Uber needed

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Uber started by utilizing waste in the

transportation system (empty cars)

It is now creating new value as a

supplement to mass transit

And as an alternative to a

rental car

And as an alternative to car


Source: Above the Crowd by Bill Gurley, http://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11/how-to-miss-by-a-mile-an-alternative-look-at-ubers-potential-market-size/

fast, widespread connectivity,

and big data to flourish

smartphones with location services,

$100B market ...which grows the TAM

+$27B in the US alone $1.3T TAM

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What do you do next as a business?

In the beginning… A few years ago… Today, and in the future…

No one worried about their mobile, digital, cloud, or

big data strategies

Mobile, digital, cloud and big data were side projects,

and not core to most companies strategies

Mobile, digital, cloud and big data must be pervasive in your companies strategy

Strategy Strategy

•  Good/Easy/Fast vs. Bad/Hard/Slow •  Business who are slow to adopt and innovate will perish •  Instant access to information empowers customers and accelerates both the gain of the Good/Easy/Fast and the

decline of the Bad/Hard/Slow

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The mobile ecosystem

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High-end devices

Low-end devices

Infrastructure providers will be fine

Any OS’s besides iOS and Android will struggle to gain

market share

Players “stuck in the middle” will struggle as they need either

high volume or high margin

Either go simple/inexpensive or provide

added services

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It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…

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Discovery is too hard

There is no standalone app ecosystem

There are lots of great tools

Winners are able to design across all platforms using big data, machine learning and

the cloud

Consumers expect a great user experience

Demand will remain high and accelerate

The bad news The good news

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What does this mean for different developer segments?

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Hexagons show % of total developer population in Q3 2014

Source: State of the Developer Nation Q3 2014, Vision Mobile

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Strategic Insights for Global Technology Leaders Cambridge, MA – London, UK

Q & A